2015-16 State of U.S. Ladies skating

[AsadaFanBoy]

I also hope it is Ashley. While she is not the most technically gifted, the grit, the desire, the dauntless tenacity makes me hope that her hard work will pay off when she risks it all.

Aside from that, I hope this is the year Ashley gets on the podium at worlds.

 

[Layback11]

I had a dream in which, among other things, Mirai made the 2016 World team and came in 6th there. In the same dream, Karen Chen won Skate America. So I'm hoping both of them make worlds now! (With Gracie, of course.)

In that dream, the other World team ladies were, predictably, Gracie and Ashley. Didn't say what the heck happened to Polina (who is basically a permanent member of the Olympic Threesome who have gone to worlds every year since).

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I hope it's Ashley but I think it will be Gracie. Polina has a fabulous SP though, and has seemingly worked out her lip, so if she has a consistent GP series, it'll be a catfight at Nationals.

 

[samson]

My gut says when we're talking about top US lady for this season it's between Ashley, Gracie and Polina and really still just Ashley and Gracie.

You know I was really struck by Ashley's comments in that new backstage interview with Adam and Douglas for The Skating Lesson. I hope she's not putting too much pressure on herself by saying she needs to make a move this year or she's done. With Ashley I feel like it's often a question of is she going to psyche herself up or psyche herself out. 2012 Nationals a perfect example of giving herself an outrageous ultimatum (win or quit) and it paying off big time. 2014 Nationals a great example of over talking the issue and just about missing the opportunity.

I love Ashley's new short. Wish we had seen it not in such a tiny rink but aw well. There's a lot of detail in the program and I feel like we're really seeing Ashley and Shae Lynn gel. Talk about getting every moment in the music. I liked Spartacus and I think this is a MUCH better vehicle.

Gracie's new programs are way better this year. It makes me feel like Frank and Lori are actually starting to see HER and not just the image of what they want in to see. She finally has vehicles that feel right on her. Hopefully that will translate to stronger skates this year.

Polina's new short is the program I've been waiting to see from her. I feel like I haven't seen GWTW to full affect yet but if it's as strong as her short she could be a real factor this year. Last year she was very hot and cold though so I'm not sure what to anticipate.

Karen could potentially be a spoiler this year. When I watch her skating I objectively see why it's great, but emotionally it hasn't connected for me yet.

My prediction is this season will continue to be a back and forth with Ashley and Gracie. I expect both of them to look stronger than last year throughout the season and I HOPE that one of them will make it to the podium in Boston. It's about damn time a US lady has stood up there and how wonderful would it be if they did it on home soil.

 

[leoncorazon]

I think Karen Chen will emerge but it sure will be a fight, and hopefully lots of great skating will result.

 

[apgold]

There's a lot of detail in the program and I feel like we're really seeing Ashley and Shae Lynn gel. Talk about getting every moment in the music.

Ashley and Shae Lynn are a great match, choreographically. If Ashley doesn't psyche herself out, I can see her keeping her #1 status although Gracie may give her a run for her money.

I really want Mirai to kick butt this year and place top 5 in Nationals. I think all the top US ladies will be stepping up their game this year, so it will be exciting.

 

[Layback11]

Ashley and Shae Lynn are a great match, choreographically. If Ashley doesn't psyche herself out, I can see her keeping her #1 status although Gracie may give her a run for her money.

I really want Mirai to kick butt this year and place top 5 in Nationals. I think all the top US ladies will be stepping up their game this year, so it will be exciting.

I'm hoping so, too, because I just had a dream that Mirai went to worlds and placed 6th (with Ashley and Gracie, both of whom placed ahead of her and one of whom-I don't remember who-medaled. So I'm hoping she'll actually do that. probably not.

 

[Plisskin]

I can't put my bet on anyone. It could be Gracie, Ashley..who knows. Ever since Sasha Cohen the "#1 U.S. Lady" has been an ever revolving door. I just hope things are much better than last season. Would love to see Mirai go clean for once while putting some passion and emotion in her skate. Haven't seen that since 2010? or was it 2011? It's been a while for her when she went clean and there was some semblance of joy... or some kind of emotion other than extreme concentration and stoicism in her skating.

 

[Jammers]

Ashley and Shae Lynn are a great match, choreographically. If Ashley doesn't psyche herself out, I can see her keeping her #1 status although Gracie may give her a run for her money.

I really want Mirai to kick butt this year and place top 5 in Nationals. I think all the top US ladies will be stepping up their game this year, so it will be exciting.

I don't think Ashley is even the US #1 right now. Gracie beat Ashley at Worlds and in total score at the WTT.

 

[samson]

Just for kicks I thought it would be interesting to take the 5 core international events for Ashley and Gracie and average the scores they got and see on the whole how they averaged. It's a very imperfect calculation because in fact Ashley and Gracie only went head to head twice internationally and both those times Gracie came out ahead, still it's food for thought.

For Ashley I calculated both her grand prix, the Final, Worlds and WTT. For Gracie I did both grand prix, 4CC, Worlds and WTT. The average scores from last season were:

Ashley
SP: 61.56
LP: 124.39
TOTAL: 185.95

Gracie
SP: 64.73
LP: 121.6
TOTAL: 186.33

On average, Grace edges Ashley internationally by a margin of .38. Like, I said this is a far from perfect way to calculate and compare scores, however I would venture to say that I think it's not far off from the impression I felt at the end of the season. International judges do seem to like Gracie a little more. Her jumps are natural, her spins are usually better, and she's got that Frank Carroll polish which, whether you like it or not you can't deny. Both had good highlights internationally and performances one would rather forget. I still see them kind of neck and neck. We've never gotten to compare the two of them on their best day at the same event (and what a treat that would be!)

It feels like momentum is just a hair in Gracie's corner, but Ashley had shown she'll deliver her best when we least expect it.

 

[qwerty]

Here's an (unfortunate) hypothetical scenario to ponder: do you think Ashley and/or Gracie would be placed on the 2016 world team if they finished off the podium at nats?

 

[Layback11]

Here's an (unfortunate) hypothetical scenario to ponder: do you think Ashley and/or Gracie would be placed on the 2016 world team if they finished off the podium at nats?

Um, maybe? They're obviously our two best contenders right now (both have made the GPF and been in the top 5 at worlds multiple times), so it's likely, as no two other skaters are likely to get the three spots back. (Any combination of Gracie, Ashley and Polina in 2015 would've been less than 13, but I can't see any other two skaters doing that.) And ultimately, it's about future success, meaning we have to send the combination that's likeliest to get three spots back. I think Polina and Karen could do it if they both skated as well as they could, but they're also both fairly inconsistent. Maybe even Courtney or Mirai? All of these skaters could get the spots back, but chances are none of them would.

However, Gracie and Ashley both being off the podium at Nationals is so incredibly unlikely, barring disastrous injury or illness, that it's not worth worrying about. However, it's fun to think about who might go in their place if they didn't-obviously Polina, but who else? Anyone care to ring in?

 

[StitchMonkey]

Here's an (unfortunate) hypothetical scenario to ponder: do you think Ashley and/or Gracie would be placed on the 2016 world team if they finished off the podium at nats?

I think a lot would depend on how everyone does on the grand prix. If Gracie and Ashley both make the final, then I think they would be sent. If they were beaten by ladies that did as well or better than than on the circuit, they likely would be staying home.

Another way to put it is that if Gracie and Ashley have a bad season and bad nationals they may not get to worlds. But it would take a good season and a good showing at nationals for a skater to go instead of them.

 

[Krunchii]

Here's an (unfortunate) hypothetical scenario to ponder: do you think Ashley and/or Gracie would be placed on the 2016 world team if they finished off the podium at nats?

It depends on earlier in the season what their results were, something like 2014 Nationals, Ashley earned her spot by winning a medal at GPF. Also if they're off the podium due to injury or illness then I think the Fed would give them a chance. In terms of international clout Ashley and Gracie have the most so if they make mistakes judges can still pad their scores with some PCS while I can't say the same for ladies like Courtney Hicks or Mirai Nagasu. Another American lady would have to really breakout somehow internationally for for the USFS to consider them. Polina is most in danger of losing her spot with Karen Chen around.

 

[mrrice]

I just watched Angela Wang's SP and really hope She can keep herself healthy and focused. She has so much talent and could definitely shake things up if she skates well. I'll be keeping track of her....

 

[Jammers]

I think if Angela can skate this way all season she can break from the middle of the pack and beat skaters like Courtney and Mirai.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The key to breaking away from the pack, as Stitch Monkey said, is to do well on the GP and at Nationals. Angela has been capable of doing great jumps for many years but has failed to produce anywhere near her best form at Nationals.

 

[mrrice]

The key to breaking away from the pack, as Stitch Monkey said, is to do well on the GP and at Nationals. Angela has been capable of doing great jumps for many years but has failed to produce anywhere near her best form at Nationals.

You're right. I remember watching her land triple triples back in 2012 and swore she was the future of US Ladies and it hasn't quite happened. I hope she makes a breakthrough this season

 

[apgold]

I don't think Ashley is even the US #1 right now. Gracie beat Ashley at Worlds and in total score at the WTT.

Just to clarify I was referring to Ashley as our current US Ladies champion, not her international rank.

 

[Ruffles78]

I can't put my bet on anyone. It could be Gracie, Ashley..who knows. Ever since Sasha Cohen the "#1 U.S. Lady" has been an ever revolving door. I just hope things are much better than last season. Would love to see Mirai go clean for once while putting some passion and emotion in her skate. Haven't seen that since 2010? or was it 2011? It's been a while for her when she went clean and there was some semblance of joy... or some kind of emotion other than extreme concentration and stoicism in her skating.

Oh, come on. Just because she's not wild with excitement like she was as a youngster does not mean she isn't enjoying herself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTFjImi85rQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg7T76ZWsuA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0h5fNLuvLI


As far as Ashley and Gracie are concerned, I don't care who beats who as long as it is fair. I personally think Ashley is the better skater overall when she is on compared to Gracie.