2017 GPF Predictions: Ice Dance

[Tonichelle]

At least they arent repetative music routines... but I still dislike this SD theme.

 

[college pat]

i am going on limb and say shibs, they are coming into their own.

yes it probably will be p/k or v/m but i am hoping shibs pulls of the win.

 

[TontoK]

I'm keeping an eye out for how the US teams place against each other :yay:

Yeah, this is where the action is. I'm going to root for the upset. H/D for the win!

 

[sarama]

I think the GPF SD will make it clear who the judges think deserve to win in Pyeonchang. And maybe also who they think deserves bronze.

 

[NoNameFace]

I think the GPF SD will make it clear who the judges think deserve to win in Pyeonchang. And maybe also who they think deserves bronze.

actually, I think the contrary, I predict a close race and scores in SD (barring some levels havoc or falls), but it's FD that will tell the real difference - and preference of judges towards stuff, with teams quite different with aesthetic/vibe of their programs. And I would not count so much of 'spacing' teams in SD between themselves score-wise, I totally see Shibutanis breaking 80 pts, Hubbell/Donohue getting close to that if skating lights out of their SD. With Canadians and French, it could be 'a toss of the coin', if BV will be the same.

 

[all that]

actually, I think the contrary, I predict a close race and scores in SD (barring some levels havoc or falls), but it's FD that will tell the real difference - and preference of judges towards stuff, with teams quite different with aesthetic/vibe of their programs. And I would not count so much of 'spacing' teams in SD between themselves score-wise, I totally see Shibutanis breaking 80 pts, Hubbell/Donohue getting close to that if skating lights out of their SD. With Canadians and French, it could be 'a toss of the coin', if BV will be the same.

Agree. The FD will decide it as the SD scores are already so close together. And the judges have already made it quite clear whose FD is the best! Gold in Pyeongchang has already been decided in favor of P/C, but what about silver? Maybe the Shibs will take it, with V/M in bronze? Or will H/D sneak in for bronze and V/M off the podium altogether? Wait and see!

 

[Spirals for Miles]

You never know, I wouldn't say that P/C have already been decided as OGM.
The Shibs fix their levels, which they will definitely do, and they are definitely in the mix.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

I have a feeling that P/C are on their way to an undefeated season unless something drastic happens with their actual performance OR if some increase in other teams' scores happen at the GPF making the other teams much more competitive than we thought, including V/M. P/C just seem to have the narrative right now and that may be the style and direction judges want to reward and see in the future of ice dance. Even if you don't like P/C's style, you can't deny that they have a distinctive one that has resonated with so many and they have a real artistic point-of-view. That in itself is a great sell. All teams have strong narratives as to why they'd be great OGMs as well. We know narratives do help. If P/C hit their levels then it's harder to deny their TES even if some would argue they receive generous GOEs. Speaking of that, I think the top teams tend to get higher GOEs than they probably should just because not giving them a high GOE would affect where the judge actually wants to rank them in the competition. It's like they've boxed themselves scores wise in and still want to control the outcome, so they have no choice but to go crazy with PCS and GOE in ice dance.

 

[bobbob]

Hm...I thought V/M established themselves as the stronger team last year in the judges eyes, so I would tend to think they would win unless they make mistakes or lose levels. Comparing individual GP scores for ice dance isn't very accurate, as seen in the past...just look at some of the scores this year....

I like both teams, though I think V/M are stronger technically and P/C are stronger artistically...depends on what aesthetic you prefer. P/C's FS from 2016 remains, artistically, my favorite program ever.

 

[Barb]

well, if P/C had not the ideal results last season and suddenly they got WR at worlds 2017, so I think a team like V/M are very capable of doing the same, having a good season but with P/C winning and suddenly V/M explode at olympics and get WR and olympic gold, they have the experience of 2 past olympic games as advantage.

And I think that Maia and Alex are able to fight for silver and gold medal too.

 

[MelDee]

well, if P/C had not the ideal results last season and suddenly they got WR at worlds 2017, so I think a team like V/M are very capable of doing the same, having a good season but with P/C winning and suddenly V/M explode at olympics and get WR and olympic gold, they have the experience of 2 past olympic games as advantage.

I wonder if people will ever stop being surprised by P/C's success.

 

[Bcash]

I wish to see H/D overtake S/S but it seems unlikely to happen,particularly given the skating order.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

At Skate Canada, the judges were rather conservative with V/M's scoring... for sure I thought they would be above 200. And that kinda cooked their chances a bit... because at IdF, the judges certainly didn't hold back on P/C's scores (especially in the SD where V/M have the edge). It's kinda interesting how many say that Skate Canada is overly generous when D/R went clean and V/M went clean but the judges didn't go crazy on their PCS (which could have been 'justified' given they were clean skates on home ice). So the writing might be on the wall for V/M, as much as I would love to see them win another OGM.

That being said, while I think V/M has the superior SD and will place higher than them in that segment, to me P/C's free dance is greatly superior to theirs. Between the two overall, I prefer P/C, just because of how spectacular that FD is... it actually makes me perceive Moonlight Sonata in a different way and their movements and expression are pure art. I could watch P/C's FD over and over again and both find something interesting as well as feel something emotional each time. V/M's FD is strong, but not their most special one. The Skate Canada scoring didn't help V/M as much IdF scoring helped P/C, but being fair about it, when all's said and done with clean skates, I'd have P/C ahead of them overall by just a hair. I'm glad the GPF is in Japan and the Olympics are in South Korea because hopefully the judges will be neutral and I'm certain the best duo will win.

 

[Anyasnake]

At Skate Canada, the judges were rather conservative with V/M's scoring... for sure I thought they would be above 200.

I didn't find them conservative at all, given the WR SD score first. I think it was deserved though, it was very well skated. If the judges wanted to go conservative, they could have gone with ~82.30ish, sliiiightly below their WR.

And they were going with the 200 for sure. All the lifts got the maximum points, the GOEs were very nice actually. BUT, that bobble on the Circular step sequence kept them away from 200... 2 Options :
First, the Cist was going to be level 3, bobble or not. Even though they got some +3s for the Cist (which I think is why they were not conservative), they did get +1s, so you change some of the GOEs, and you make it to 200. Barely, but you do.
Second option : Cist was going to be level 4, and because of the mistake, it went down to level 3, which is a +1.50 missing and in that case, we're talking 201 points.

It could have been "worse" : I think since this year, you don't autmatically drop to level 2 with such a mistake, but the previous years, the Tech panel had to do that.

At NHK, on the FD, I saw that everyone got lower PCS than their average. I don't know about V/M, but for me H/D's FD was better than in SCI which shows that it's truly about the panel, if skaters are clean.

I can't wait to see who is on that Tech Panel though
And I want clean twizzles from everyone :dev2:

 

[Heleng]

I'm keeping an eye out for how the US teams place against each other :yay:

:agree: While it will be interesting to see who gets top two as between V/M and P/C, for me the real excitement of the dance GPF will be the competition among the U.S. teams.

 

[skylark]

I didn't know what one poster said early in the season that 'VM are too good for Moulin Rouge' until I saw it. Yep. The perfect description.

Does anyone know whether V/M chose the music, or whether it was Marie-France or another choreographer, maybe Wilson? It doesn't seem like one of Marie-France musical choices, and as a program it seems more literal and direct than the direction she usually goes. (sorry if this has been discussed elsewhere; I don't keep up with the dance threads that well.)

I'm big-time hoping for Gabriella and Guillaume to win Olympic gold; I love their emotional artistry and presence; and because it's unusual and the last Olympic cycle was more about technical match-ups, I think P/C lyricism and emotional unison deserves to be the winner. Plus, I think P/C personally deserve to be the winners. :yay:

I would love to see one of the American teams win silver ... I almost don't care which of the three. In fact, American teams for silver and bronze!

 

[MelDee]

Does anyone know whether V/M chose the music, or whether it was Marie-France or another choreographer, maybe Wilson? It doesn't seem like one of Marie-France musical choices, and as a program it seems more literal and direct than the direction she usually goes. (sorry if this has been discussed elsewhere; I don't keep up with the dance threads that well.)

I believe it was stated in several interviews that V/M insisted on Moulin Rouge. Marie-France actually wasn't happy about the choice, and called it "Disney-ish".

 

[brushalley]

I

I would love to see one of the American teams win silver ... I almost don't care which of the three. In fact, American teams for silver and bronze!

I want H/D to win US Nationals then the OB medal!

 

[skylark]

I believe it was stated in several interviews that V/M insisted on Moulin Rouge. Marie-France actually wasn't happy about the choice, and called it "Disney-ish".

Interesting.

 

[Heleng]

Does anyone know whether V/M chose the music, or whether it was Marie-France or another choreographer, maybe Wilson? It doesn't seem like one of Marie-France musical choices, and as a program it seems more literal and direct than the direction she usually goes. (sorry if this has been discussed elsewhere; I don't keep up with the dance threads that well.)

I'm big-time hoping for Gabriella and Guillaume to win Olympic gold; I love their emotional artistry and presence; and because it's unusual and the last Olympic cycle was more about technical match-ups, I think P/C lyricism and emotional unison deserves to be the winner. Plus, I think P/C personally deserve to be the winners. :yay:

I would love to see one of the American teams win silver ... I almost don't care which of the three. In fact, American teams for silver and bronze!

I highly doubt this will happen, but if it did (eta: or if C/L placed in the top three), that will certainly rev up the excitement for ID heading into the OG.