2017 GPF Predictions: Men

[Shandy]

I just read on twitter that Boyang Jin has withdrawn on doctor's orders. Apparently just a precaution, he'll be back in no time. That's what the message said.

Oh no!! I'm so sorry to hear that, though I'm glad he'll be getting the time he needs to recover. Back to edit my predictions again... :sad21:

 

[Mrs. P]

Changing my unconventional podium to any combination of Jason, Adam and Sergei. (Or Misha would be fine too, but he's the odds on favorite for bronze right now. )

Actually, it would be interesting:
1.) The order of 3 to 6.
2.) Also whether one of those four can invade the top two bunker.

Sergei and Misha have faced-off four times, with Misha winning, 4-0
Sergei and Jason faced-off five times. Jason has a slight edge, 3-2, with Sergei winning NHK Trophy.
Sergei and Adam faced off 11 times in senior competition (probably some more in juniors too), Adam is ahead 9-2, Sergei beat him at NHK Trophy, but Adam beat him the following week at Skate America
Adam and Jason have had 11 head-to-heads in international and national competition. Jason has a slight edge there 6-5, with the most recent head-to-head going to Adam at NHK Trophy. Jason's record is much stronger when you only account for competitions during the this Olympic quad--- 6-1.
Adam and Misha have only met head to head 3 times, Adam edges out 2-1, including at their recent meeting at this year's Finlandia Trophy
Misha and Jason have limited head to heads as well, 3. Jason is 3-0, but I can see that streak ending here given Misha's technical arsenal.

In other words, this is going to be hard to predict.

 

[el henry]

Does Mikhail Kolyada really use “Misha”?

Yes, I know it’s the Russian equivalent of the English variants of Mike and Michael, but my spousal unit for example uses the full name version of his first name rather the very common nicknames for that name. So there is precedent

And I get so confused reading “Misha”; I confuse easily

 

[MaiKatze]

I hope Boyang does whatever is best to heal his injuries. I'd love to see him at GPF, but if it really becomes an issue, I hope there's enough notice so Jason can compete instead.

(And if Jason does, there's no obligation to watch the K&C or his programs. )

To keep it on topic, cause this is about predictions: I would love an unconventional podium like Boyang, Sergei and Adam. But I think it's more likely a battle between Nathan and Shoma for gold and then everyone else for bronze, with maybe a slight edge to Misha based on his scores.

I get a bit sad when I read things like this. I know, you don't mean it like that, but the atmosphere right now seems like the GPF is not worth anything because fan favourites and medalists are not here. But it IS exciting. Because I think we have the two favourites for the Olympic Gold in their first showdown before the Games. I think one of Nathan or Shoma will win the Olympic Gold, and to see how they fight it out at the GPF is going to be mighty exciting, especially if they are both at their best. Of course, we don't know. It could be a case of who makes the least mistakes and a bad GPF. But just because Jin, Fernandez, Hanyu and Chan are not there it doesn't mean it's going to be a bore. Of these four I don't see Jin and Chan making the podium at the Olympics anymore anyway.

 

[Mrs. P]

Well unconventional, cause I don't see Shoma AND Nathan off (or OR even!) the podium. There's already been a few shakeups, why not a few more?

I think it will be interesting to see how those two compare. Nathan is 2-1 in face to face meet ups as seniors.

Therese plenty of narratives to watch, so no im not in the GPF is not exciting camp.

 

[silverfoxes]

I get a bit sad when I read things like this. I know, you don't mean it like that, but the atmosphere right now seems like the GPF is not worth anything because fan favourites and medalists are not here. But it IS exciting. Because I think we have the two favourites for the Olympic Gold in their first showdown before the Games. I think one of Nathan or Shoma will win the Olympic Gold, and to see how they fight it out at the GPF is going to be mighty exciting, especially if they are both at their best. Of course, we don't know. It could be a case of who makes the least mistakes and a bad GPF. But just because Jin, Fernandez, Hanyu and Chan are not there it doesn't mean it's going to be a bore. Of these four I don't see Jin and Chan making the podium at the Olympics anymore anyway.

Who decides who is a fan favorite? Sergei, Boyang (well, Jason now) and Adam all have plenty of fans. And I don't think Sergei on the podium would be unconventional considering he did it the last time he was at the GPF.

Chan was not on the podium the last couple times he was at the GPF so I don't know why he was assumed to be such a threat anyway. Especially given how he skated at SC.

 

[Mrs. P]

^ I definitely remember Sergei's podium placement in 2015 and I think he has a good shot of bronze again now. I think on paper the "conventional" podium is Nathan, Shoma and Mikhail -- again purely based on numbers. But a podium that had none of those guys on it (and more Shoma, Nathan; Misha's edge on the rest of the field is only a few points) would be unconventional.

 

[Hyena]

With Boyang out and Jason subbing in, the Jason and Adam storyline should be interesting to watch. I don't think they're necessarily competing against each other in the GPF, but if either one has a rough showing, that opens the door for Max or Vincent to get on the Olympic team if they rock at Nationals.

 

[lavenderblossom]

Does Mikhail Kolyada really use “Misha”?

Yes, I know it’s the Russian equivalent of the English variants of Mike and Michael, but my spousal unit for example uses the full name version of his first name rather the very common nicknames for that name. So there is precedent

And I get so confused reading “Misha”; I confuse easily

Yes, he does. Got very confusing at CoR with Misha Ge and Misha Kolyada

 

[Tahuu]

The dueling of Shoma and Nathan will be very interesting, with the advantage goes to Shoma.

Shoma is at his home court and well rested while Nathan has to travel and overcome jetlag.

Shoma has three beautiful 3As across two programs and the 2nd halt 3As are like quads in terms of getting the points. Nathan’s 3A is bad. He singled, not pop, the FS axel at SA.

Shoma has 6-8 points in PSC advantage over Nathan, that’s half a quad.

Shoma’s pre and under rotations will not be called if he doesn’t fall.

 

[Tutto]

Does Mikhail Kolyada really use “Misha”?

Yes, I know it’s the Russian equivalent of the English variants of Mike and Michael, but my spousal unit for example uses the full name version of his first name rather the very common nicknames for that name. So there is precedent

And I get so confused reading “Misha”; I confuse easily

Yes, he does. Got very confusing at CoR with Misha Ge and Misha Kolyada

In his fan fest we used to call him Mika (I still do as some other posters but some prefer Misha) it is cute and distinguishes him from Misha Ge. But in real life he is Misha, a common diminutive of Mikhail in Russian

 

[nekun]

Let see if Shoma can handle the home court pressure. Looking back at the three latest event Shoma skate at home the result were so so.
2016/2017 Japan National, it's really shown the pressure got to him
2017 Asian Winter Game, I remember back than that some people said 'Boyang was robbed'
2017 Japan Open, I heard he's injured during Japan Open. Maybe it's explain the not so good showing in JO

 

[MaiKatze]

Let see if Shoma can handle the home court pressure. Looking back at the three latest event Shoma skate at home the result were so so.
2016/2017 Japan National, it's really shown the pressure got to him
2017 Asian Winter Game, I remember back than that some people said 'Boyang was robbed'
2017 Japan Open, I heard he's injured during Japan Open. Maybe it's explain the not so good showing in JO

There was also WTT in Japan, which Shoma also won. So, the results weren't bad. He won it all, sans Japan Open.

If Shoma can't handle the pressure to skate well at home, then that doesn't matter, because the biggest price will be in South Korea. Seriously, Shoma had good skates in Japan, as he had bad skates - same as his international outings. No matter what, I can't see him off podium here, even bronze seems like a loss. It's going to be hard though, because he is the lone japanese man in the final. The last time that happened was in the 2008/2009 season with Takahiko Kozuka. Since then, there have been two, three and even four japanese men in the final each year.

 

[nekun]

There was also WTT in Japan, which Shoma also won. So, the results weren't bad. He won it all, sans Japan Open.

If Shoma can't handle the pressure to skate well at home, then that doesn't matter, because the biggest price will be in South Korea. Seriously, Shoma had good skates in Japan, as he had bad skates - same as his international outings. No matter what, I can't see him off podium here, even bronze seems like a loss. It's going to be hard though, because he is the lone japanese man in the final. The last time that happened was in the 2008/2009 season with Takahiko Kozuka. Since then, there have been two, three and even four japanese men in the final each year.

Ahh yeahh I forgot WTT, my bad..maybe coz it's a team event.

I know the biggest price will be in South Korea, but as far as I know this is GPF men thread so yeah....just my two cent

 

[MaiKatze]

Ahh yeahh I forgot WTT, my bad..maybe coz it's a team event.

I know the biggest price will be in South Korea, but as far as I know this is GPF men thread so yeah....just my two cent

No worries. We'll know soon. Yes, Shoma's performances (not the results ) in Japan have been mixed. There wasn't an event in Nagoya though, so I hope this will push him. He normally thrives in high-pressure situations. The only worry I have is the aftereffects of the flu he had and if two weeks were enough time to find the balance between resting and training as hard as he wanted.

 

[nekun]

No worries. We'll know soon. Yes, Shoma's performances (not the results ) in Japan have been mixed. There wasn't an event in Nagoya though, so I hope this will push him. He normally thrives in high-pressure situations. The only worry I have is the aftereffects of the flu he had and if two weeks were enough time to find the balance between resting and training as hard as he wanted.

Yeah we'll know soon , can't wait

 

[MaiKatze]

Shoma is going back to 5 quads including the Salchow in the Free Skate for the GPF. (He skated a 5 Quad FS clean at Lombardia, so he can definitely do it) Needed if he wants to win against Nathan. His motto for the season is 'to attack' and I'm glad his fighting spirit is on!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Shoma is going back to 5 quads including the Salchow in the Free Skate for the GPF. (He skated a 5 Quad FS clean at Lombardia, so he can definitely do it) Needed if he wants to win against Nathan. His motto for the season is 'to attack' and I'm glad his fighting spirit is on!

Right on! I don't know why he had replaced the salchow with the lutz, but his previous layout makes more sense.

Any word on Chen bringing back the quad loop? He's had impressive success with it so far, and it makes him that much more a threat.

 

[demarinis5]

Jackie Wong's prediction on the men.

http://www.rockerskating.com/news/2017/12/5/2017-grand-prix-final-preview-men-jockeying-for-position

 

[beachmouse]

For me, this is the most interesting event of the GPF because the men have been so unpredictable this year. Far better for my personal entertainment to watch the warm-up for the long program and have no idea who will step their game up that day and successfully push the limits than to have the sense that I've already read the script for what it about to happen in the competition.