4 World Champs odds of Oly Gold?

[medvedevasocks]

Looking at the 4 skaters/teams who won Worlds I think there is a very good shot of all 4 winning the Olympic Gold medal next year, and that is something I dont think I have felt since....well not sure ever really. The closest would be 1987/1988 I guess. I could have seen each of the 4 1987 World Champs- Orser, Witt, Gordeeva & Grinkov, Bestiamanova & Bukin all win gold. 3 of the 4 ultimately did, and the other missed by .1 of a point.

How would you rate each of these 4 skaters/teams chances of gold. Here would be mine:

Medvedeva- The safest bet. Atleast 95% likely to win gold in Pyeongchang.

Virtue & Moir- The clear favorites. I would put them at 75% chance though since Papadakis & Cizeron will be gunning for that gold too, and have a whole year to try and close the gap.

Hanyu- 75%. I give him roughly the same odds as V&M but much less than Medvedeva. With 2 clean programs he cannot be beaten, not even by the guys with more quads but who cannot match his GOE or PCS (Chen and Boyang) but 2 clean programs has never happened for him in a major event thus far, well other than the GPF last year.

Sui & Han- The most vurnerable of the 4 World Champs. I give them roughly 40-45% chance of gold, Savchenko & Massot their main rivals for the OGM also roughly 40-45%, and 10% a Russian team (either consistent but limited Tarasova & Morozov, or potentially brilliant and gold worthy but super erratic Stolbova & Klimov) sneaking out the gold, with a 5% (including Duhamel & Radford or if they attempt a comeback Volsozhar & Trankov) to the rest of the field. I honestly lean slightly more towards Savchenko & Massot now since Aliona wants that gold so badly she will literally step through shattered glass to take and Sui & Han will have to skate even better than they did at worlds last year to prevent that I predict. Another fall on the triple salchow as they usually have, and Aliona who wont repeat the mistakes she made this time will eat them.

 

[whatif]

Ladies: Very hard, it is always unpredictable as physics affects too much them. Barred a complete disaster, I say 100% sure Zhenya will be on the podium and 75% chance of her winning.

Dance: Virtue/Moir 80% chance. They are now the Canada's main pony BUT it also depends on the tech panel and judging panel draws for Olympics.

Pairs: Hard to predict in the current field. I say the top 5: S/M, T/M, D/R, and S/K can all make convincing cases. I would rate S/H at about 30% chance.

Men: Hanyu 50% chance. A repeat gold medal is tough and his competition is getting stronger.

 

[jimini]

I think the Mens' event is always the most volatile at the Olympics. In the last 30 years, only one man has won the Olympics the year after winning the Worlds (Evan Lysacek), assuming I didn't miss someone . Especially with the level of tech so high, the Mens' event probably has the biggest chance for a surprise winner and surprise podium, even.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I like Hanyu's chances of repeating, but it's difficult for the top men because if you're having an off day, there are four elements that are going to be very difficult to do well. That he has a ~60 point difference between his SB and season's worse score shows how much of a difference having a bad day can make.

 

[pETEs (Sasha Fan)]

Three words to medvedevasocks:

Ice is slippery.

 

[blackey]

French is the favorite for dance. I think everyone is just confused by the smoke of v/m's victory. If you look close to the protocol, despite the huge gap between their SD score, the French team got almost identical goe and pcs with v/m, even with that clear advantage v/m has in SD.

 

[pETEs (Sasha Fan)]

French is the favorite for dance. I think everyone is just confused by the smoke of v/m's victory. If you look close to the protocol, despite the huge gap between their SD score, the French team got almost identical goe and pcs with v/m, even with that clear advantage v/m has in SD.

Can you elaborate or present visual proof? I am missing the point. Sorry.

 

[blackey]

Can you elaborate or present visual proof? I am missing the point. Sorry.

for the short dance, the gap between their scores was like 5.5, but the French got almost same goe and pcs as v/m, i.e. all the points they lost is due to the levels. So if p/c hit all the levels, the gap between them would be less than 1 point, and I thought it was clear v/m's SD was much better than p/c's.

 

[olayolay]

I think Virtue/Moir are super vulnerable. Their mistake in the FD was costly and I think they'll be punished for it next season.

for the short dance, the gap between their scores was like 5.5, but the French got almost same goe and pcs as v/m, i.e. all the points they lost is due to the levels. So if p/c hit all the levels, the gap between them would be less than 1 point, and I thought it was clear v/m's SD was much better than p/c's.

Where's your math coming from? If they got the same levels, V/M would be about a point and a half ahead in PCS and GOE.

 

[bobbob]

Ladies: Evgenia probably 95%, barring a major meltdown or meteoric Alina rise next year.

Men: Yuzu is still the class of the field, but I wouldn't put his winning chances too much above 50% because there are so many contenders...there is Javi, and Nathan Chen, plus a judges-favorite Shoma. I would say Yuzu 50%, Javi 15%, Uno 15%, Chen 10%, Chan 5%, Jin 5%..When on though, he is unbeatable.

Pairs: My heart is saying Sui/Han all the way for sure...but this is Aliona's last rodeo and she will be fighting all the way and the judges know that, Sui/han have 2022, the judges think (or am I overthinking it?). Anyways I'd say Sui/Han have about a 40% chance, considering there is S/M as well as a possible rejuvenated S/K, better programmed T/M, D/R, etc.

Dance: Virtue and Moir at about 80%...dance isn't really a volatile field at the top, and the fact that V/M won today with mistakes makes it even more convincing they will win the Olympics, mistakes or not. P/C do have a chance if they put out once in a lifetime programs.

So, for all 4 to happen..not likely, but certainly more likely than a usual year I think. Maybe 15% for all 4.

French is the favorite for dance. I think everyone is just confused by the smoke of v/m's victory. If you look close to the protocol, despite the huge gap between their SD score, the French team got almost identical goe and pcs with v/m, even with that clear advantage v/m has in SD.

Virtue and Moir skated REALLY poorly for them today, with a couple mistakes..and they still WON. So the fact that they made mistakes today probably makes it more likely they are going to win the Olympics.

 

[Mango]

Even with the mistake, which was a slight stumble in comparison to the other major errors we saw, Virtue/Moir hit their levels. They lost GOE, as they should. They lost some PCS, as they should. Ice dance is levels first. The SD levels are what helped them win overall. SD PCS were so similar despite one team getting all level 4s and another not. What does that say about judging?

Sui/Han are amazing, but the judges really want Aljona to get her gold. I can see S/M's PCS rising just to the point that S/H's TES can't make up for it. The judges probably wouldn't even feel bad about it because they reckon S/H will have their shot at Beijing 2022.

Zhenya seems a lock for gold unless somehow Zagitova upends her. Though Zhenya will still have a PCS advantage over Alina.

Men is so unpredictable but I'd say Yuzuru is the favourite to win it. Of course it all comes down to who's clean and who's not. Yuzuru has shown us at least 5 clean performances these past 2 seasons. Shoma, Patrick, Javier, and Nathan have a few as well, but I think Yuzuru has the most (off the top of my head). Considering he's got 3 different quads and he plans to maybe do a 4Lz I think he's got the best chance to grab gold again.

 

[Alchamei]

Ladies: Medvedeva, if clean, is guraranteed at least Silver. I want to say there is 95% chance to win, but I won't, since everything can change in one season and mainly, I expect Zagitova will turn senior. If she does, I say 80%, still the safest bet.

Men: Yuzuru's win is no way guarranteed. While he finally managed to peak at Worlds, he had messed up his SP again and had to rely on other's mistakes. Judges also love Nathan so if he skates clean, they will give him all The PCS. And Shoma, Javi, Patrick and Boyang are watching. He still has the biggest chance of them all, but it's just about 55%.

Pairs: Probably the most vulnerable champions. While they are usually consistent and are great in SP, Wenjing's history of injuries can strike again and she desperately needs to fix her Salchow, or just go for Double Axel. S/M, T/M are their biggest rivals right now and Y/Z can also be a joker. They are also the biggest favourites, but again, just about 50%.

Ice dance: Tessa and Scott are the heavy favourites. Their skills are still unmatched and can score near to WR almost every time. But this Worlds showed they can make mistakes. If P/C finally fix their mistakes in SD, V/M will be still the biggest favourites but they can't afford any mistakes then. I say 75% chance to win.

Overrall, I agree that this years champions have a great chance of winning the Olympics and all of them are the biggest favourites, but in some cases, they need to watch their backs a lot.

 

[narcissa]

I think the higher the probability of one skater/team winning their discipline, the less difficult the discipline

 

[narcissa]

Also, I think Evgenia will either win or not make the team. AKA a complete Yulia-like implosion keeping her off the team or she wins.

 

[gibbynka]

Nobody can be sure about the Olympics, it's still almost a year away, soooo much can happen. Just look at last year's winners. Only Medvedeva managed to repeat her victory here.

I'm very happy about this WC, because I truly believe that all the winners are the absolute best in their respective disciplines at the moment. If all of them win gold in Pyeongchang after great performances, I'll be even happier :agree:

It's not very likely to happen for all of them, though Has is ever happened? All the previous world champions winning the following Olys? I don't think so

I hope they get a lot of rest and then get the most amazing programs for the Olympic season :luv17: I'll definitely be rooting for them.

 

[whatif]

I was just thinking that this is the closest Canada ever came to a high likelihood of winning gold in all 5 disciplines. I can see a convincing case for V/M, Osmond, Chan, and D/R as well as the team getting at the top next year.

 

[blackey]

Virtue and Moir skated REALLY poorly for them today, with a couple mistakes..and they still WON. So the fact that they made mistakes today probably makes it more likely they are going to win the Olympics.

you totally missed my point. First, they didn't win the FD, so it's not "they skate poorly and win". The only reason they won total is because p/c lost too many levels in SD, as I mentioned before, if p/c hit all of their levels in SD, the gap between them would less than 1. If that did happen, v/m would lost here. Everything happened this year looks like the judges prefer v/m, but it's just not true. If you go back check all the protocol, judges never favor v/m in pcs or goe. v/m is winning everything because p/c made way too much low-level mistake, and I don't think this is gonna happen in next season.
Also, this whole scenario really put v/m into the worst position they could possibly be before a Olympic season. Most people don't really think they deserved their title that they actually earned by themselves, everyone thought they are favor from judges which is also just a delusion. They actually get nothing, and the French fed now have this perfect material for politicking.

 

[Blades of Passion]

V/M winning this year was the perfect thing for business. It excites their fanbase and sets up a rivalry (aka more people will tune in to watch Olympic Ice Dance), whereas P/C winning Worlds would have created a scenario of "they are unbeatable and will of course win Olympics".

But of course P/C will win the Olympics, unless they make an unforgivable mistake, because it's also better for business to crown new champions and be able to use them to promote the sport and sell more tickets.

 

[bobbob]

you totally missed my point. First, they didn't win the FD, so it's not "they skate poorly and win". The only reason they won total is because p/c lost too many levels in SD, as I mentioned before, if p/c hit all of their levels in SD, the gap between them would less than 1. If that did happen, v/m would lost here. Everything happened this year looks like the judges prefer v/m, but it's just not true. If you go back check all the protocol, judges never favor v/m in pcs or goe. v/m is winning everything because p/c made way too much low-level mistake, and I don't think this is gonna happen in next season.

But P/C made mistakes here, V/M didn't. If neither make mistakes, V/M will win. If either make mistakes, it will depend on the severity of them.

 

[Bcash]

Interesting observation on Pairs.
From what I can see, while Savchenko is/will be the sentimental favorite, the judges clearly also like S/H a lot. If they add 4ThS back into their LP, with other elements unchanged and cleanly done, their BV+GOE might just help them secure a win.

Team Savchenko has never been known for consistency, so I wouldn't rate S/M's chance at winning higher than S/H.