4 World Champs odds of Oly Gold?

[Ares]

Medvedeva - 80%
Hanyu - 50%
Sui / Han - 30% - 50%
Virtue / Moir - 50% ... I think that judges would be more than willing to crown new, brand Olympic Champions if given chance, and P/C could be such. They get monstrous scores if they hit their levels and V/M were hard pressed to keep their 1st place lead after P/C skated. If P/C have better SD next season there's going be more suspense. I don't see anyone challenging V/M for Gold bar them unless some team make tremendous improvement that also also has to be noticed, definitely not Shibs.


Odds of all 4 Champions to become Olympic Champions in Pyeong Chang are not very high imo.

 

[invisiblespiral]

Guess: Zhenia < V/M = Hanyu < S/H

:scratch:

 

[blackey]

But P/C made mistakes here, V/M didn't. If neither make mistakes, V/M will win. If either make mistakes, it will depend on the severity of them.

Who won here has nothing to do with Olympics. If they both skate clean, yes v/m would win here by very close margin, and I probably would still say that p/c still have bigger chance for the Olympics. Because 1) the judges like different olympic champion. If their performance is very close next year, p/c is gonna win 2) p/c's programs this year really weren't ideal, they won't be worse than this for next season. But for v/m, prince really set a high bar for their next season program. As I said, even with this clear advantage v/m have this year in SD, judges still choose to give p/c almost identical pcs and goe, next year would only getting even closer. And with that tiny difference scores they would possibly get, politics become very important. The only thing people will remember for the next couple of month is v/m don't deserve their title, and people will want p/c to be the olympic champion to "make things right".

 

[JuliaHols]

Nobody can be sure about the Olympics, it's still almost a year away, soooo much can happen. Just look at last year's winners. Only Medvedeva managed to repeat her victory here.

I'm very happy about this WC, because I truly believe that all the winners are the absolute best in their respective disciplines at the moment. If all of them win gold in Pyeongchang after great performances, I'll be even happier :agree:

It's not very likely to happen for all of them, though Has is ever happened? All the previous world champions winning the following Olys? I don't think so

I hope they get a lot of rest and then get the most amazing programs for the Olympic season :luv17: I'll definitely be rooting for them.

Evan Lysasek and Yuna Kim won 2010 Oly after winning worlds the year before actually, so thats 2/4 a hahaha

 

[ancientpeas]

Guess: Zhenia < V/M = Hanyu < S/H

:scratch:

Gosh.. this seems like a very complicated SAT level math question. I'm going to say All of the above!

 

[ancientpeas]

Basically I'm thinking this:

Evgenia M-Satoko-Anna P (rising from the flames like a phoenix. It will be glorious)- If Amano is the caller I'm going to say Evgenia-Anna-Kaetlyn
Hanyu-Fernadez-Uno
S/M-S/H-D/R (Not because I want them to but because I'm not sure Aliona can be denied)
V/M-P/C-B/S (But this is the one I'm least sure of because P/C are divine when doing their thing. It's about the SD in my opinion. If they can master that then I'd say them. Versatility helps in ice dance and V/M are very versatile and the SD is the rumba and we know they can do the latin dances. I'm thinking B/S for bronze mostly because saying the Shibs at this point would be too easy.. if my actual cash was on the line I'd say the Shibs)

 

[whatif]

V/T won as well, in a similar pattern to S/H.

 

[Mathman]

But P/C made mistakes here, V/M didn't.

Well, actually they did. Scott's stumble in the free dance gave that segment to P/C. But V/M did not lose many points and their lead in the short dance held up.

What will happen in the olympics? We'll have to wait and see.

Anyway...

Medvedeva 50%
Hanyu 30%
Virtue and Moir 30%
Sui and Han 25%

At least one complete surprise 70%

 

[Mathman]

Guess: Zhenia < V/M = Hanyu < S/H

I agree, except I think all your <s should be >s.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Medvedeva seems most likely to win.

V/M had a FD stumble and still won.

S/H are poised to win but they need to get their SBS salchows sorted - they are fortunate S/M had some minor errors.

Hanyu is the likeliest to win but like S/H he is vulnerable to errors and it took his best to hold off Uno -- and even then Uno made errors on the lutz and 4T that gave Hanyu the win. So it's not for certain. But he's the best bet.

 

[ancientpeas]

Well, actually they did. Scott's stumble in the free dance gave that segment to P/C. But V/M did not lose many points and their lead in the short dance held up.

What will happen in the olympics? We'll have to wait and see.

Anyway...

Medvedeva 50%
Hanyu 30%
Virtue and Moir 30%
Sui and Han 25%

At least one complete surprise 70%

um.. confused.. if V/M are 30 then are P/C 70? Are you thinking something like 30-25-10-10-10-10-5?

 

[Mathman]

um.. confused.. if V/M are 30 then are P/C 70? Are you thinking something like 30-25-10-10-10-10-5?

Something like the latter. But actually, I am not sure,that Virtue and Moir are the favorites over Papadakis and Cizeron. Maybe 30-35-10-10-10-10.

Wait, wait. 30-35-5-5-5-5-5-5.

Wait...

 

[bobbob]

Well, actually they did. Scott's stumble in the free dance gave that segment to P/C. But V/M did not lose many points and their lead in the short dance held up.

What will happen in the olympics? We'll have to wait and see.

Anyway...

Medvedeva 50%
Hanyu 30%
Virtue and Moir 30%
Sui and Han 25%

At least one complete surprise 70%

Sorry I mean the other way around, I don't know what I was thinking. But your percentages all seem very low...especially for Medvedeva...V/M at 30%. Could you breakdown to which skaters the other 50-75% is going?

 

[TontoK]

I like Hanyu's chances of repeating, but it's difficult for the top men because if you're having an off day, there are four elements that are going to be very difficult to do well. That he has a ~60 point difference between his SB and season's worse score shows how much of a difference having a bad day can make.

This exactly.

The risk these men will be throwing in both programs will be unprecedented.

One bad day... even one bad moment... can mean the difference in a podium finish.

It is the competition I'm most looking forward to in the next year. It should be incredible. And, as we've seen, no short program lead will be safe. The pressure will be on til the last skater.

 

[jinabee]

Hanyu knows he needs to work on his consistency and knows he has to aim for two clean programs with get the Olympic gold again. He will be training hard and doing whatever else he needs to do in order to achieve that.
Obviously the men's event is incredibly competitive and very, very close so it's hard to make predictions but I like his chances so long as he avoids injury, has good programs and works on being more consistent.

 

[TontoK]

um.. confused.. if V/M are 30 then are P/C 70? Are you thinking something like 30-25-10-10-10-10-5?

This is the problem with predicting a winner. Sure V/M are the favorites, in my mind, a year out. That doesn't mean they'll "probably" win.

Ice is slippery and the competition will be fierce and the pressure will be enormous.

I'd call it V/M 40 percent. An unspecified "Someone Else" 60 percent.

 

[Mathman]

Sorry I mean the other way around, I don't know what I was thinking. But your percentages all seem very low...especially for Medvedeva...V/M at 30%. Could you breakdown to which skaters the other 50-75% is going?

I haven’t really tried to work it out. Many contests are decided by freakish accidents that can’t really be predicted. For instance, in the ice dance LP just skated the U.S. teams in contention for the bronze had a big donnybrook as to who could give it away to the others.

At the Sochi Olympics neither of the contenders skated well and a dark horse like Takahashi could easily have snuck in for the gold. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya each had a 50% chance to win gold in 2002; but they didn’t. Plus, there is no guarantee that the hotshot of 1917 will be the hotshot of 2018. A year or two ago Duhamel and Radford would have been given the best chance to win the Olympics. That was then, this is now.

I give Medvedeva the greatest chance because she almost never makes mistakes which would allow someone else to upset the odds. And yet, 50% chance against the field is huge odds (1 to 1 in betting terms, whereas most sports bets of this kind are 5 to 1, or 10 to 1, or 20 to 1). Maybe by December we will be just as astonished for Zagitova – from junior world champion to Olympic champion in one year, can she pull it off?

Hanyu can’t be beat. And yet Fernandez did beat him in 2015 and in 2016. In 2017 Hanyu skated so well that he really couldn’t be beat. Yet Uno came within a couple of points. And what about Nathan Chen and Boyang Jin with an extra year of seasoning?

Plus, this doesn’t even take into account injuries. To tell the truth, we don’t even know yet who will be competing, much less who is likeliest to win. I will lay low. Then I will pop out after it’s all over and say, “I told you so.” :yes:

 

[brens78]

The men's field is the hardest for me to choose atm, we don't know what their programs will be next season and I believe one is only good as their last skate :/

 

[brens78]

ps. Mathman I think you mean 2017 and not 1917

 

[all that]

The only thing people will remember for the next couple of month is v/m don't deserve their title, and people will want p/c to be the olympic champion to "make things right".

Hmm. The only thing I'll remember is that V/M did deserve their title because P/C made a butt load of mistakes in their SD. Seriously, how could they have lost so many levels? It was almost embarrassing. And I say that as a huge fan of P/C.