Alissa Czisny Update!

[silverlake22]

I thought I said I understand why Gold scores higher than Gao when she skates well, and that her score ceiling is going to be higher because she has stronger jumps and spins than Gao. How is that bashing Gold? Clean Gracie beats clean Christina any day of the week, at least at this point. I recognize that and I am not trying to say otherwise. All I was trying to say is that Gao has ALREADY beaten Gold at a competition, 4CCs, where Gold had a bad competition. This was not the first time Gold had a bad competition. Therefore, I was trying to point out that IF Gold has a bad competition at Nationals AND Gao has a solid one, then I don't see a reason why Gao cannot overtake Gold in terms of overall placement, for the reasons I just mentioned.

I am just trying to look at the situation objectively. Gracie has been inconsistent this season, and maybe I don't fully understand her component marks yet but maybe I need to see her live in order to do that, but otherwise I admire her speed, power, jumps, and spins and am not trying to say otherwise, when she delivers, I understand why there is so much hype, she is incredibly talented. But suggesting she's NOT vulnerable or capable of losing to another very strong skater who has shown good consistency as of late at a competition like US Nationals, when said skater has already beaten her once at an international, is just kind of silly.

Of course, people expect Gracie and Ashley to make the team. But if one of them really doesn't skate so great at Nationals, I could definitely see either being relegated to 3rd place, especially because 3rd place means a spot on the Olympic team, and if this happens, it would mean another skater would be finishing 1st or 2nd, and among the skaters who could do this, I see Gao as one of the top candidates. Does this make sense?

 

[Mrs. P]

I thought I said I understand why Gold scores higher than Gao when she skates well, and that her score ceiling is going to be higher because she has stronger jumps and spins than Gao. How is that bashing Gold? Clean Gracie beats clean Christina any day of the week, at least at this point. I recognize that and I am not trying to say otherwise. All I was trying to say is that Gao has ALREADY beaten Gold at a competition, 4CCs, where Gold had a bad competition. This was not the first time Gold had a bad competition. Therefore, I was trying to point out that IF Gold has a bad competition at Nationals AND Gao has a solid one, then I don't see a reason why Gao cannot overtake Gold in terms of overall placement, for the reasons I just mentioned.

I am just trying to look at the situation objectively. Gracie has been inconsistent this season, and maybe I don't fully understand her component marks yet but maybe I need to see her live in order to do that, but otherwise I admire her speed, power, jumps, and spins and am not trying to say otherwise, when she delivers, I understand why there is so much hype, she is incredibly talented. But suggesting she's NOT vulnerable or capable of losing to another very strong skater who has shown good consistency as of late at a competition like US Nationals, when said skater has already beaten her once at an international, is just kind of silly.

Of course, people expect Gracie and Ashley to make the team. But if one of them really doesn't skate so great at Nationals, I could definitely see either being relegated to 3rd place, especially because 3rd place means a spot on the Olympic team, and if this happens, it would mean another skater would be finishing 1st or 2nd, and among the skaters who could do this, I see Gao as one of the top candidates. Does this make sense?

Now Christina did VERY poorly at GPF and was nearly 20 points behind Liza T., who finished in 4th. But we also know that Christina got the invite at the last minute and there for was probably not training for it properly as her goal was likely to train for nationals.

I wouldn't base Christina's ability to deliver on GPF, when clearly she didn't have the time to train properly on it. Likewise I wouldn't base Christina possibly beating Gracie at Nationals on a competition where they were clearly on different training peaks.

One can't underestimate how tough it is for an athlete to perform well a WEEK after they deliver their absolute best. That's like running your personal best time at a marathon (or any race) and then having to turn around do the same thing a week later. Chances are you're not going to do well.

Gracie peaked (the first time) at Nationals. Christina did well at Nationals but she clearly peaked at 4CC.

In the end, that 4CC, in the big scheme of things, won't matter in Boston.

 

[mskater93]

Silverlake, you are STILL missing a very important point which you alluded to but won't happen: Gold already had a near meltdown at nationals in the SP and STILL managed to pull herself up from NINTH (behind Christina) to SECOND overall. Gao has beaten Gold exactly once in at least three meetings...

 

[ForeverFish]

1. A clean Gold's score ceiling is above 200--easily. She's already set that goal for herself, and by finding a new choreographer in Marina Zoueva, she seems to be headed down the right path. Gao's score ceiling is 180-185 for a perfectly clean skate at an international competition. silverlake22 has already mentioned this.

2. Gold has impressive SS with good flow and depth of edges in her step sequences and spins. She is a powerful skater, like Wagner and Hicks, and can't be expected to have a Zijun Li-esque approach to her programs. Gao's style is closer to Li's, but she sacrifices PCS points because she can't generate as much speed or strength. She doesn't have weak basics by any stretch of the imagination, but we shouldn't expect her to score as high as Gold, Wagner, or Hicks when she has a physical disadvantage in build.

3. As I've mentioned already, Gold received 184+ for two mistake-prone programs at Worlds (fell out of a spin, edge calls on the 3F's, UR'ed a 3-3, turned out of a 3-3, turned out of a 3S, hit the boards on a 2A). She received 188+ at WTT after *falling* in the SP and doubling a salchow in the FS. In TES, she'll be scoring above 70 once she cleans up the flip and lands seven clean triples--a feat that requires incredible athleticism. Not many women in the world are capable of maintaining that stamina throughout a program; Yuna Kim, obviously, is one of the few others.

4. Gao is, IMO, an elegant skater. She reminds me of Czisny in that the graceful, lyrical artistry is there, if somewhat unrefined (in Gao's case, not Czisny's), which limits her musical range. I agree with mskater93 that the Tango was a poor choice for her, and through no fault of hers. When I think of Latin music, someone of Gao's style is not the first, or second, skater that comes to mind. She needs pieces like Czisny's "Winter Into Spring" or "La vie en rose" to properly showcase her nice lines and smooth movements. Gao's music should not have any sudden increases in speed or volume, nor should it evoke any intense emotions, because she hasn't yet reached the level where she can project that to the audience. For comparison, see Kim's "Les Mis."

5. Gracie Gold's jumps, landed properly in both segments, will put her on top of essentially any US podium. When her TES increases, so does her PCS. Despite the supposed inflation that took place at US Nationals, where she scored 61+ in PCS, she actually put up a higher score at WTT. Some may cry foul, but I don't believe that Gold has enough of an international reputation to merit score-boosting just yet.

6. I wish both women a successful upcoming season.

 

[b-man]

1. A clean Gold's score ceiling is above 200--easily.

Maybe. Only four women have broken 200: Kim, Asada, Rochette and Ando. Kostner hasn't. Only three Americans have broken 190: Sasha, Wagner, and Nagasu. Gold hasn't broken 190 yet, but she is close with, as you said, programs with mistakes. But that is one of the keys then, isn't it. Doing programs without mistakes.
Only Kim could do that in London.

 

[fairly4]

In response to only 3 U.S. women over 190. In scoresand that is when both Mirai and Ashley skayed both sp & lp clean with no mistakes. Ashley goeen over 190 twice in,last coupke of seasons a 192 at the 2012 4CC and a 190 at last years TEB Competition.
Mirari once at the 2010 Olympics and the Ijs rules changef a bit.
Sasha was,when,the Ijs first started in the Gp series in tryouts for the 2003/2004 season,with different rules and they wasnt taking a whole lot off foe mistakes. Just trying,to get skaters used to new system.
Diofferent rules with Ijs back than versus now. Back than spins had much more of impact than this year.Even this year the ijs,rules are bit different.
Hopefully they will follow as rules as they arw,on oaper .

 

[mskater93]

1. A clean Gold's score ceiling is above 200--easily. She's already set that goal for herself, and by finding a new choreographer in Marina Zoueva, she seems to be headed down the right path. Gao's score ceiling is 180-185 for a perfectly clean skate at an international competition. silverlake22 has already mentioned this.

I am assuming we are talking about 67ish in SP and 133ish in LP to break 200? That's totally doable.

 

[silverlake22]

Silverlake, you are STILL missing a very important point which you alluded to but won't happen: Gold already had a near meltdown at nationals in the SP and STILL managed to pull herself up from NINTH (behind Christina) to SECOND overall. Gao has beaten Gold exactly once in at least three meetings...

That was because USFS wanted Gold on the Worlds team and there were only 2 SPOTS this year. After her great FS, obviously they wanted her on the Worlds team because she had just shown she could deliver the best program of any US lady in a competition, whether or not this great program combined with her bad short should have been enough to get her to 2nd place at the competition is a tossup, however, the only way to get her into 2nd and on the Worlds team was to throw her a bone and give her a huge score, which is just what happened. Next year, there are 3 spots, so if Gold has a meltdown in the SP again, the concern will not be as great because she only needs to pull up to 3rd to make the Olympic team, hence, her scores, whether or not she skates a blinder, will not need to be nearly as huge to pull her up and it won't be as crucial to hold so many other ladies down in the scores if they skate really well because two girls can still beat Gracie in order for Gracie to make the Olympic team fair and square.

And for the record, I didn't even have a big issue with Gold's FS score at Nationals, it was maybe a little high, but she was perfect so I understand it. What I did witness afterwards though was comparative lowballing of other ladies who skated really well, Gao and Cesario in particular but there were others as well. Part of the reason I think Agnes gets such big scores at Nationals is her start order, she does well in the SP so she's always one of the last to skate, and where she's not known for skating clean, there isn't much fear of her knocking out whichever girl is favored to make the World team, but because she skates so late and everyone else's results are in by then, she can skate okay and get a high score because the judges have already delivered out huge PCS for others, and in the case of Agnes, huge PCS aren't going to be enough to knock someone else off the World team anyways, so then her scores are high for what she delivers.

Anyways I guess what I'm trying to say is that having 3 spots versus 2 spots changes the situation a bit in that a skater who is expected to be on the team (eg. Gold and Wagner) will not need to be "held up" as much or given really high scores for the program that is delivered in order to make the team, and additionally, if a third lady happens to deliver in both portions of the competition and arguably deserves to beat one or both of the favored skaters, this skater might actually get rewarded for it and finish in 1st or 2nd place because doing so does not prevent either of the favored skaters from making the team. Does this make sense?

 

[chuckm]

Gracie was scored 125.40 for her Worlds FS, with a turnout on the 3z+3t, a two-footed 2a when she hit the boards, and a stepout on the final 3s. Also, she didn't skate in the final group, where she most likely would have received a higher PCS score than 60.18.

She got 127.05 for her WTT FS, where she doubled the final 3s.

With better choreography, more expressiveness and cleaner skates this coming season, she could easily score over 130 for her FS. If she can (finally!) skate a clean SP, it could be possible for her to approach or top 200.

 

[Jammers]

LOL I thought this thread was about Alissa not Gracie or Christina.

 

[mskater93]

I don't think 132 at Nationals was "held up" as you do in your estimation of her program (which hit every level and every jumping pass deserving of +GOE) when she got a 125 for some mistakes and being in the penultimate group at Worlds and a 127 at WTT for a less than perfect skate. If you add the 3 point differential from the 2S--> 3S and the +1/2 for GOE on that, she scores right about her Nationals score at WTT in front of an international panel. If you add in the ~3.5 she lost in GOE with those three quality errors in the LP at Worlds, she's right at ~129-130 for that LP with no additional PCS for being clean (PE mark would have gone up a little).

I just don't think you understand how when she's on Gold IS currently that much better than the other ladies in the US from a TES standpoint and how from what IJS values on the PCS side and the component most judges start with as the first mark they score on PCS (SS), she's GOING to get a big mark because her basic skating is that good in comparison to the other US ladies.

It's not because "USFS wanted her on the team" but that she DELIVERED and put HERSELF on that team. If she hadn't delivered in the long program, someone else would have gone to Worlds with Wagner. Period. Most likely Zawadski, not Gao, because Zawadski ended up in 3rd overall with a fairly strong short and a crappy long that, while 7th in that seqment, was close enough in points to leave her on the podium. Gao would have needed to score a 125 in the LP to push ahead of Gold, and her difficulty is not as high nor are her elements of the same quality to pick up GOE for another 8 points or 8 points higher in PCS (basically she would have had to have the best PCS of the night to pick up those 8 points on that side of the card and there is NO way she was going to outscore Wagner in PCS and for what Gold put out relative to the other ladies, her PCS was fair in comparison). If Gao had gotten a L4 on her layback and a L4 on her flying sit and no negative GOE on that element, she could have realistically finished 3rd as she would have picked up about 2.5 more points and she might have gotten a little bit higher PCS, but probably not more than another 0.5-1 point).

I highly expect Gold will have her **** together this season. I hope that EVERYONE brings it at Nationals and let the chips fall where they may....

 

[ForeverFish]

Maybe. Only four women have broken 200: Kim, Asada, Rochette and Ando. Kostner hasn't. Only three Americans have broken 190: Sasha, Wagner, and Nagasu. Gold hasn't broken 190 yet, but she is close with, as you said, programs with mistakes. But that is one of the keys then, isn't it. Doing programs without mistakes.
Only Kim could do that in London.

Score ceiling, to me, is the skater's maximum capability assumed that she reaches her absolute best in TES and PCS. I think it's a realistic goal for a clean Gold, although it may not happen next season (we'll see where she is with interpretation/choreo).

 

[ForeverFish]

I am assuming we are talking about 67ish in SP and 133ish in LP to break 200? That's totally doable.

Something like that. I personally think that Gold has higher scoring potential in the FS than the SP, but 65+ in the SP is a realistic goal for her. Once she starts consistently landing her jumps and learns how to interpret the music better, I see no reason why she shouldn't be competitive with the best in the world (heck, she'll BE one of the best in the world once the Big 3 are gone).

ETA: ITA about Gold's Nationals score. There was still a glimmer of hope after the SP that she could make the podium, and she did better--she delivered one of the best free skates in the history of US ladies' skating. The opening 3-3 of her program nearly made my eyes fall out of my head. We also have to remember that she wasn't actually perfect in that FS; without the edge call on the 3F-2T-2T, she would have scored 133+.

In the end, Gold and Wagner were the only options for the World team if the US wanted a realistic shot at getting those 3 spots for the Olympics. Wagner with anyone else in the top five at US Nationals would likely have seen Ashley pulling all of the weight while the second lady barely scraped a top ten finish.

At WTT, Gold did not have her best skate. However, she still managed a 127.05, her SB and PB, and that was after receiving an edge call on the 3F (-0.90 GOE), doubling the 3S (0 GOE), and getting L3 on her step sequence. If we can assume that she would usually score +0.50 GOE on those jumps, clean (yes, I'm lowballing her for the purpose of demonstration), then she would have received 0.90 + 0.50 = 1.40 more points for the 3F. A clean 3S in the second half of the program would have received 4.3 x 1.1 = 4.73 points. 4.73 + 0.5 - 1.43 = 3.80. On the step sequence, assuming she could have received L4 and scored comparably to US Nationals, where she received +0.90 GOE, you would have 0.90 - 0.64 = 0.26.

Then, you have:

127.05 + 1.40 + 3.80 + 0.26 = 132.51, which is essentially equal to her US Nationals FS. Her actual score would have been higher, since she can score above +1.00 GOE on most jumps. Once she improves her PCS, she'll be scoring even higher--if she can get to Wagner's level (PCS ~= 65), she could be at 137 or 138 in the FS.

 

[R.D.]

This thread is (or was, at least) about Czisny but I just wanted to comment on something:

That was because USFS wanted Gold on the Worlds team and there were only 2 SPOTS this year. After her great FS, obviously they wanted her on the Worlds team because she had just shown she could deliver the best program of any US lady in a competition, whether or not this great program combined with her bad short should have been enough to get her to 2nd place at the competition is a tossup, however, the only way to get her into 2nd and on the Worlds team was to throw her a bone and give her a huge score, which is just what happened. Next year, there are 3 spots, so if Gold has a meltdown in the SP again, the concern will not be as great because she only needs to pull up to 3rd to make the Olympic team, hence, her scores, whether or not she skates a blinder, will not need to be nearly as huge to pull her up and it won't be as crucial to hold so many other ladies down in the scores if they skate really well because two girls can still beat Gracie in order for Gracie to make the Olympic team fair and square.

And for the record, I didn't even have a big issue with Gold's FS score at Nationals, it was maybe a little high, but she was perfect so I understand it.

No...Perhaps USFS privately "wanted" her on the team, but if you look at the SKATING that took place, clearly no one else ahead of Gold truly rose to the occasion. Therefore, Gold with her FS was able to rise as high as she did. And no, the scoring of her FS at Nationals was not out of place at all when you consider her scores of 125 and 127 at Worlds and WTT - and those were with blatant mistakes. If anything, one could even say it was a bit on the LOW side since she would have easily scored that at Worlds if she repeated that skate there. In other words, in hindsight, that score definitely was not due to NATIONAL inflation... (!)

Also, in retrospect, (and I thought so at the time too) Wagner and Gold were definitely the right choice to send to maximize chances of 3 spots. I still didn't like our chances very much but finally things came together when they needed to and it happened. But it almost certainly wasn't going to happen with anyone else. Gao, the next best option to Gold, even with her SA score (174) would have been 9th at Worlds, which would have been just short w/Wagner's 5th. (Then the pressure would have been on Wagner to do better and finish 4th, which she certainly was capable of)

And finally, which Gold will show up at next year's Nationals (and which Wagner, for that matter!) has yet to be determined. The pressure on those two should be *slightly* less (but still high!) but don't think by any means that either is a shoo-in. Very early, still lots of time left.

 

[kwanatic]

My two cents.

I do agree that Gracie was overscored at nationals by about 5 or 6 points. I went back and scored the top 7 ladies at nationals and posted my findings on my blog.

My scores for Gracie came out to 126.71 for her FS as opposed to the 132.49 the judges gave her. I think the judges got over-excited by her technical display and allowed that to influence their scoring of the program as a whole. To quote myself, "Technically, she was beyond brilliant; artistically, she was among the weakest in the field."

I thought the majority of her overscoring came in the PCS category by about 4 points. Her jumps were great and so were her spins...but, literally, that's all that program was: jumps and spins. Reward skaters for what they do well but in order to see them improve, they need to receive the scores they are due in areas they need work in otherwise what incentive do they have to improve?

Boosted scoring is nothing new (duh). That's what happens at nationals when they know who they want on the podium/world team. Sometimes they have to blatantly finagle the scoring to justify someone being held up (Alissa in 2009) or sometimes you have a skater make it easy by skating well in which case the judges can pile on the scores without needing any pretense (Gracie).

Gracie proved herself by helping get back those three spots so at the end of the day I suppose everything worked out. She is the future going forward and she has the full backing of the USFSA and having that favor will enable her to go much farther than someone without it (Christina).

 

[R.D.]

But even with so-called "backing", it's still up to the skater to take full advantage of such a position. Flatt didn't, Czisny didn't. Gold, remains to be seen.

Likewise, someone WITHOUT that "backing" can earn it through consistently strong results (see Wagner).

 

[ForeverFish]

But even with so-called "backing", it's still up to the skater to take full advantage of such a position. Flatt didn't, Czisny didn't. Gold, remains to be seen.

Likewise, someone WITHOUT that "backing" can earn it through consistently strong results (see Wagner).

This. Gracie's PCS at Nationals was actually LOWER than at WTT, and she doesn't have enough of an international reputation to merit score-boosting just yet. I can guarantee that, had she not skated well in the FS at Nationals, she wouldn't have been anywhere near the podium, much less on the World team.

 

[mskater93]

This was my point as well, forever.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Gracie's PCS at Nationals was actually LOWER than at WTT, and she doesn't have enough of an international reputation to merit score-boosting just yet.

I've noticed that, outside the top 3, PCS scores are heavily dependent upon how well the skaters skate. The top 3 always get good PCS whether or not they have falls or other mistakes, while the other skaters will get good PCS only if they are clean. It seems there are about 8-10 skaters who have the potential to get the 4th highest PCS marks in Sochi, but I wish the top 3 skaters would also have the same variability in their marks as well.

 

[kwanatic]

But even with so-called "backing", it's still up to the skater to take full advantage of such a position. Flatt didn't, Czisny didn't. Gold, remains to be seen.

Likewise, someone WITHOUT that "backing" can earn it through consistently strong results (see Wagner).

Agreed. I think both Czisny and Flatt used that backing to their advantage as well. Both secured top 5 finishes at worlds and were able to have a decent amount of success on the GP as well. Gold has done well so far but the true story will be told next season.

I think Christina falls into that "without" backing category just like Ashley. That's why I have so much respect for Ashley: she had to earn every single rep point she got and she did it with strong programs and solid skates. She worked her way up which proves it can happen...but you gotta work.

As for Gracie's WTT score, I'm not surprised. By the end of the season she was the #2 US skater and had just come off of a decent placement at worlds. That does warrant a certain amount of rep scoring...however, I thought her PCS at WTT should have been higher than at nationals b/c even with the mistakes her performance overall wasn't as robotic and blank as her performance at nationals. She showed some signs of life and, b/c of that, it makes sense that her scores were higher. If she continues to improve they should continue to go up...