American Champs: Predictions Game Round 3

[noskates]

Ladies:

Gracie Gold
Mariah Bell
Ashley Wagner
Mirai Negasu

Men:

Jason Brown
Nathan Chen
Max Aaron or Vincent Shou

Pairs:

Denney and Frazier
Kayne and O'Shea
Cain and Leduc

Dance

Shib Sibs
Chock and Bates
Hawayek and Baker

 

[ssffww]

Ladies
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Gracie GOLD
3. Mirai NAGASU
4. Mariah BELL
5. Courtney HICKS
6. Karen CHEN

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Vincent ZHOU
5. Andrew TORGASHEV
6. Grant HOCHSTEIN

Pairs
1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
3. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
4. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
5. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY
6. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN

Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

 

[msteach3]

LADIES:
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mirai NAGASU
3. Gracie GOLD
4. Mariah BELL
5. Courtney HICKS
6. Karen CHEN

MEN:
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Vincent ZHOU
5. Grant HOCHSTEIN
6. Timothy DOLENSKY

PAIRS:
1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
3. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
4. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
5. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
6. Deanna STELLATO-DUDEK / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

DANCE:
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS
6. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT

 

[LadyB]

Ladies:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Mariah Bell
4. Gracie Gold
5. Courtney Hicks
6. Amber Glenn

Men
1. Nathan Chen
2. Jason Brown
3. Max Aaron
4. Andrew Torgashev
5. Vincent Zhou
6. Sean Rabbitt

Pairs
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Kayne/O'Shea
3. Cain/LeDuc
4. Castelli/Tran
5. Stellato-Dudek/Bartholomay
6. Pfund/Santillan

Dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Hubbell/Donohue
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Chock/Bates
5. Pogrebinsky/Benoit
6. Cannuscio/McManus

 

[KwanIsALegend]

Men

1. Nathan Chen
2. Max Aaron
3. Jason Brown
4. Ross Miner
5. Grant HOCHSTEIN

Women

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Karen Chen
4. Miriah Bell
5. Gracie Gold

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Mariah Bell FTW

 

[Hyena]

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Vincent ZHOU
5. Grant HOCHSTEIN
6. Tim DOLENSKY

Ladies
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mirai NAGASU
3. Gracie GOLD
4. Mariah BELL
5. Amber GLENN
6. Courtney HICKS

Pairs
1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
3. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Erika SMITH / A.J. REISS
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

 

[Puchi]

LADIES:

1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mirai NAGASU
3. Gracie GOLD
4. Mariah BELL
5. Karen CHEN
6. Courtney HICKS


MEN:

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Vincent ZHOU
5. Grant HOCHSTEIN
6. Timothy DOLENSKY


PAIRS:

1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
3. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
6. Deanna STELLATO-DUDEK / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

DANCE:

1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

 

[casualfan]

MEN
1. Nathan Chen
2. Jason Brown
3. Max Aaron
4. Grant Hockstein
5. Timothy Dolensky
6. Ross Miner

LADIES
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Mariah Bell
4. Gracie Gold
5. Courtney Hicks
6. Karen Chen

PAIRS
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Castelli/Tran
3. Kayne/O’Shea
4. Cain/Leduc
5. Pfund/Santillan
6. Stellato-Dudek/Bartholomay

ICE DANCE
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Pogrebinsky/Benoit
6. Cannuscio/McManus

 

[matmuh]

Men;
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Vincent ZHOU
5. Alexander JOHNSON
6. Timothy DOLENSKY
7. Ross MINER

Ladies;
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mirai NAGASU
3. Courtney HICKS
4. Mariah BELL
5. Gracie GOLD
6. Karen CHEN
7. Amber GLENN

Pairs;
1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
3. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
6. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
7. Joy WEINBERG / Maximiliano FERNANDEZ

Ice Dance;
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS
6. Charlotte MAXWELL / Ryan DEVEREAUX
7. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT

 

[jenaj]

1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Gracie GOLD
3. Mirai NAGASU
4. Amber Glenn
5. Mariah BELL
6. Karen Chen
6. Karen CHEN

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Vincent ZHOU
5.Grant HOCHSTEIN
6. Ross Miner

Pairs
1. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
2. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
4. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
5. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY
6. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN

Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MC
6. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT

 

[Alchamei]

Let the headache begin...

Ice dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Cannuscio/McManus
6. Pogrebinsky/Benoit

Men
1.Chen
2.Aaron
3.Brown
4.Hochstein
5.Zhou
6.Dolensky

Pairs
1.Denney/Frazier
2.Kayne/O'Shea
3.Pfund/Santilan
4.Castelli/Tran
5.Liu/Johnson
6.Stellato-Dudek/Bartholomay

And let's roll the dice now!

Ladies
1.Wagner
2.Gold
3.Nagasu
4.Hicks
5.Bell
6.Chen

 

[ladykk]

I missed the first two rounds, but here goes anyway:

Ladies:
1) Gracie Gold
2) Ashley Wagner
3) Mirai Nagasu
4) Mariah Bell
5) Courtney Hicks
6) Bradie Tennell

Men:
1) Nathan Chen
2) Vincent Zhou
3) Max Aaron
4) Jaxon Brown
5) Grant Hochstein
6) Alexander Johnson

Pairs:
1) Cain/LeDuc
2) Castelli/Tran
3) Denney/Frazier
4) Kayne/O'Shea
5) Liu/Johnson
6) Stellato/Bartholomay

Dance:
1) Shibutani/Shibutani
2) Chock/Bates
3) Hawayek/Baker
4) Hubbell/Donohue
5) Cannuscio/McManus
6) Pogrenibsky/Benoit

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Arrrgh!!!! Only realised there now that the American Senior competitions start today (for some reason, all day I have thought that today was Wednesday). And I haven't even looked towards making predictions yet! :drama

Anyway, just to let you know that I have posted the SP Start Order tables into the Original Post.

The Entries / Results Page does not have the Start Orders divided into Warm-Up Groups, so I had to guess where the divisions were.

Going to frantically make predictions on the Pairs and the Ladies after tea. If I have time to do the Men and Dance tonight, I will. But if not, then it'll be tomorrow morning along with the Canadians.

So glad I reinstated the late predictions rule for the Nationals Game...

CaroLiza_fan

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

THIS IS YOUR THIRTY MINUTE WARNING.

You have just 30 minutes left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 15:00 CST (21:00 GMT / 22:00 CET)

But, as usual in my Games, this is just a target time so that you are not rushing about at the last minute. Predictions for each category will still be accepted up until the start of that category’s Short Programme.

(Sorry for not giving a warning earlier. I intended to include one in my last post, but forgot to write that bit! : )

CaroLiza_fan

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

In the Ladies, I had always intended to put Polina Edmunds on top. Come on, you should all know by now that I have a soft spot for the Russians! So, seeing that picture of her in a wheelchair last week was really disappointing.

GET WELL SOON, POLINA!!!

So, I was forced to go with Ashley to win. For second, I decided not to go with the obvious choice of Gracie.

The problem was that there were three girls that I wanted to put on the podium, but only two steps left. And I could not decide who to go for.

• The promising young skater (Karen Chen)
• The experienced skater, who I am still angry was not sent to Worlds in 2014 (Mirai Nagasu)
• The revelation of the season so far (Mariah Bell)

In the end, I went with my heart. Which coincidentally just happened to be putting them in order of age.

I put Gracie into 5th.

When you arranged the field by absolute PB, there was practically nothing separating the rest of the Top 10! And I was familiar with all but one of them. And I liked all the ones I was familiar with. In the end, I decided to make just one change from the absolute PB order. I moved Caroline Zhang up from 10th to 8th. I think it was out of nostalgia more than anything else.

With Pairs, I knew even before opening up Bios who I was putting in the top 4 and in what order. The problem was the rest.

For my 5th place, I decided to go with a new partnership. And it’s not purely for nostalgia’s sake. I do not remember Deanna Stellato competing in Singles. She retired before I even started getting interested in figure skating. But I really want to see her do a Zoe Jones and do well on her comeback to Nationals. Yes, it may be in a different category, but she is a very accomplished skater (2000 Junior GP Final Champion, no less), and she has a partner that is very experienced in Pairs.

I just hope the injuries that led to her retirement are no longer causing her any problems.

For the rest, I put the names that I was familiar with next, and arranged them into absolute PB order. For the simple reason that although I recognised the names, I am not that familiar with their skating.

Men and Dance to follow tomorrow morning.

Caroliza_fan


AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ladies

1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mirai NAGASU
3. Mariah BELL
4. Karen CHEN
5. Gracie GOLD

Just for fun
6. Amber GLENN
7. Angela WANG
8. Caroline ZHANG
9. Courtney HICKS
10. Bradie TENNELL


Pairs

1. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
2. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
4. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
5. Deanna STELLATO-DUDEK / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Just for fun
6. Erika SMITH / AJ REISS
7. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
8. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
9. Joy WEINBERG / Maximiliano FERNANDEZ
10. Alexandria SHAUGHNESSY / James MORGAN

 

[snowflake]

So pairs are starting soon... and then women. Good luck all (skaters and predictors) and good night until tomorrow :thumbsup:

Ladies
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Courtney Hicks
3. Gracie Gold
4. Karen Chen
5. Mariah Bell
6. Mirai Nagasu

Men
1. Nathan Chen
2. Vincent Zhou
3. Max Aaron
4. Jason Brown
5. Ross Minor
6. Andrew Torgashev

Pairs
1. Castelli/Tran
2. Kayne/Oshea
3. Denney/Frazier
4. Cain/Leduc
5. Liu/Johnson
6. Pfund/Santillan

Dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donahue
4. Cannucio/McManus
5. Hawayek/Baker
6. Pogrebinsky/Benoit

 

[Plisskin]

LADIES:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Courtney Hicks
3. Mirai Nagasu
4. Mariah Bell
5. Gracie Gold

MEN:
1. Nathan Chen
2. Jason Brown
3. Vincent Zhou
4. Max Aaron
5. Andrew Torgashev

DANCE:
1. Shibutani/ Shibutani
2. Chock/ Bates
3. Hawayek/ Baker
4. Hubbell/ Donahue
5. Xannucio/ McManus

PAIRS:
1. Denney/ Frazier
2. Castelli/ Tran
3. Kayne/ O' Shea
4. Cain/ Leduc
5. Liu/ Johnson

 

[StitchMonkey]

Well I was planning on editing my first post but as i have missed the deadline... by about a minute I guess i will update my liquor shopping list as a quote to not stress our fair and just game managers.

MEN

1. Jason BROWN (did anyone really not think that Mr. Riverdance was the Irish liquor? Especially if i can't make Adam vodka! I tried to convince myself i would not do this... but some of us are just hardheaded)
2. Nathan CHEN (honestly, I am worried he is going to be burned out by Sunday based on his practice reports - I want him to learn temperance)
3. Max AARON (I have been picking my ginger cats up Simba pride rock style all week in his honor)
4. Vincent ZHOU (actually I think he might sneak on the top three podium.... but my heart would not let me leave Max off and my head would not let me leave Nathan off)
5. Timothy DOLENSKY
6. Tomoki HIWATASHI
7. Jordan MOELLER
8. Grant HOCHSTEIN
9. Sean RABBITT
10. Ross MINER

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

The Men were actually very difficult. For a start, I knew who I was putting in the top 4, but wasn’t sure what order to put them in.

When I put them into absolute PB order, it seemed as sensible an order as any. So I stuck with it.

Yes, Grant hasn’t been having as good a season as he has for the past couple. But, I think he will step things up. Plus, it will help that his fiancé is competing again and has qualified for the Ladies competition. A bit of household rivalry to spur him on!

The rest, though, I was really stuck. Although I had seen most of them before, it has either been a long time since I seen them, or I just can’t remember their recent appearances.

I started with absolute PB order, and then started making changes. First was to push Ross down. He’s still a good skater, but he’s not getting near the scores he used to. I was going to slot him in where his SB would put him. But, that would have been outside the Top 10, and I don’t think he deserves that. So, I put him into 10th place.

The next guy on the absolute PB list presented a real problem. I had never heard tell of Alexander Johnson, never mind seen him before. He had a very good record in Junior GP’s, but that was 8 or 9 years ago. Since then, he hasn’t done too many international competitions – only the odd Senior B (the most is 2 a season. But more often than not, it was none in a season). But when he does, he tends to do well in them.

So, do I go with him, or promote some of the better known skaters below him?

I like a dark horse. I’ll go with Johnson as my number 5!

For the next four places, it was tough. A guy who is a regular campaigner in the Senior ranks, and three skaters who have been doing VERY well internationally at Junior level. Dolensky was 10 points ahead of the Juniors in terms of absolute PB (last year’s Nationals). But, the Juniors are the ones that are getting to stand on the podium on a regular basis.

In the end, I decided to promote one of the Juniors to have as my alternate. Vincent Zhou’s absolute PB from September’s Junior GP in Japan is only 0.14 lower than Dolensky’s SB from October’s Skate America.

As I didn’t want to push Tim down any further just in case he pulled something out of the bag, I kept the other two Juniors behind him.

When I came to Dance, it was pretty straightforward. I knew who I was putting in the Top 5 and in what order. And I knew I was putting the rest in absolute PB order, as I was not familiar enough with any of them! (Although I had seen two of the couples before at Junior GP’s, I wasn’t sure how the others compared to them).

Now, off to Canada!

Caroliza_fan


AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Men

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Jason BROWN
3. Max AARON
4. Grant HOCHSTEIN
5. Alexander JOHNSON

Just for fun
6. Vincent ZHOU
7. Timothy DOLENSKY
8. Andrew TORGASHEV
9. Tomoki HIWATASHI
10. Ross MINER


Ice Dance

1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

Just for fun
6. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
7. Julia BIECHLER / Damian DODGE
8. Karina MANTA / Joseph JOHNSON
9. Charlotte MAXWELL / Ryan DEVEREAUX
10. Elicia REYNOLDS / Stephen REYNOLDS
11. Kseniya PONOMARYOVA / Oleg ALTUKHOV