Campbell's International FS Classic

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I am a big fan of Sasha and long before Campbells I had mentioned on several posts that this is her year. In those posts, I mentioned her biggest rival is Irina but that she is not far behind her in scores. Why this fuss over MK as being her rival is beyond me.

This isn't the first Campbells win for Sasha and I believe she also won a Marshalls. She also won several GPs and at least one Final. She's an excellent skater and competitor. Sasha has a string of medals.

I saw the sun set on Michelle at Moscow last March, but from scanty rumors and the interest TT had in her, I thought 'let me see'. But, unfortunately Michelle is injured with no firm date to return. I don't think I will see. While several speculators are assuming she will show up at Nationals, I am not of that thinking. I am expecting an announcement of retirement just before that contest.
It has been a long stretch for this exciting Lady and the end comes to all the greats.

If I'm wrong (and that won't be the first time) and MK does skate the Nats, there is hope for several posters who want to see her defeated (by anyone). So it goes with weirdos.

And let us not forget Shizuka who should be in that trio of podium skaters. She has the Tech and can be very immpressive in the presentation.

Joe

 

[Ashwood]

I read Tim Goebel's comments , in his Journal, as to the troubles he had which limited his performance. Breaking a shoelace, unable to locate a new skate etc..
Does anyone remember the poem which starts out, " For the lack of a nail, a shoe was lost, for the lack of a shoe, the horse was lost, for the lost of a horse the battle was lost, etc.? You would think that Tim's coach or Tim himself would make sure emergency supplies would be at hand. Perhaps without these problems and the limitations he put on himself, Tim might have made it up to second place.

 

[yelyoh]

Mathman, Sasha did not do a 3/3 according to reports.

Joe, you predicted MK would announce her retirement during the summer and she didn't. Now you're saying we won't see her at Nationals. I am sure she will be there unless injured or just suddenly loses her will. I am also not convinced that only Irina is Sasha's competition and maybe Shizuka. MK has choreography by TT and great basic skating skills. She can compete with Sasha on the performance mark and still has more solid jumps on the technical side. Sasha has the spins no doubt but we are far from the Olys and anything can happen. Something has been up with MK the last couple of seaons that is for sure. But until she says she quits for whatever reason I am not counting her out. And if others on this board are filled with glee at her alleged decline, well they have been proved wrong before. I too am losing faith in her but not yet completely.

 

[Eeyora]

Sasha:
The Good News
She has proved she is still totally a contender for the gold in Torino. She's back with Nicks.

The Bad News:
With the exception of last year. She always seems to start off on fire. Her best program debuts are usually at the beginning of the season. Carmen was best at the GWG. The best Rach choreographically was at Campbells in 2002 and who can forget Swan Lake at 2003 Campbells.

The verdict:
I would definitely call her a contender but in this sport anything can happen That is what I love about it.

 

[SunshineSlayer]

hmmm... should she stick with the 6 triples or go for 7? (and therefore, more points?). will it be too costly? probably a fall will take away from her PCS scores too much. i think she's slated to stick with 6 triples... b/c of her other difficult level 4 elements... spins/spirals. but, if irina or michelle comes out with nice programs in addition to 3/3s... will that force sasha's hand to go for the 3/3?

Well, a report from Sasha's rink(from a reliable source), stated that Sasha is working on a 2nd 3 jump combination to put into the program - but it isn't consistent enough yet. I believe the person said it is a 2 axel, 3 toe, 2 loop combo and being that her current 2 axel is one of the last jumps that she does in the program, she would rack up a lot of points with that combo in the second half of the program.

So Sasha is working on another combo that she can pull out of the bag if need be.

 

[Lucy25]

Well, a report from Sasha's rink(from a reliable source), stated that Sasha is working on a 2nd 3 jump combination to put into the program - but it isn't consistent enough yet. I believe the person said it is a 2 axel, 3 toe, 2 loop combo and being that her current 2 axel is one of the last jumps that she does in the program, she would rack up a lot of points with that combo in the second half of the program.

So Sasha is working on another combo that she can pull out of the bag if need be.

It also says not to get too excited about this news because this combo is not very consistant in practice, and no where does it say that she is actually planning on including this combination in her program. Skaters practice lots of things that never make it into the program.

 

[R.D.]

CoP doesn't reward Michelle like the old system did (unfortunately).

Actually I don't think we know this for sure yet. MK was totally off in Moscow, so I don't think that was a real accurate measure. However, I do agree that it will be harder for her to win under this new system because she'll HAVE to have some new tricks. Relying on emotion is no longer going to work for her.

Cohen is working on 3-3 sequences rather than combinations. I'm not familiar with the point system so are the two worth the same?

I believe MK will be at Nats if she is healthy. If she isn't, then I think she'll retire. And if she goes, she'll definitely win unless she melts down (which doesn't happen). But in spite of this I actually think Cohen has a better chance at OLY Gold than Kwan does.

 

[nymkfan51]

While I absolutely don't expect Sasha to have a meltdown at Nationals, I also do not think it's far-fetched to think she might skate there differently than she does at a cheesefst in March. Let's face it, the stakes are a great deal higher at Nats.
I understand COP is a better system for her, but as Nicks said himself ... she still has to put 2 clean programs together. Maybe she will, who knows.
I would definitely not count out Michelle though. I just don't understand this idea you have about her retiring Joe, especially before Nationals. If she's not healthy, then probably yes. Otherwise, she will be there.

 

[R.D.]

While I absolutely don't expect Sasha to have a meltdown at Nationals

Really? I do, actually. You just don't know what to expect from her.

But if last year is any indication, she was struggling the entire season and then came and did respectably well at Nats. Not bad for someone who supposedly "melts down" at every competition...it could work both ways.

 

[Mathman]

This is the new Sasha. She has reached the level of competitive maturity where she can just go out and skate her programs and not care what the other ladies do.

 

[SunshineSlayer]

It also says not to get too excited about this news because this combo is not very consistant in practice, and no where does it say that she is actually planning on including this combination in her program. Skaters practice lots of things that never make it into the program.

That's why I specifically said in my post that it wasn't consistant yet. I was purely speaking as a hypothetical, but that it is a fact that she is at least working on something that can give her more points in the technical category.

 

[Vash01]

I saw the event live last night. Just got back in town. I have published a detailed review elsewhere, but here is a brief one:

Plushenko did not need to withdraw from this one. He could have won with even 75% of his program ready, as I read somewhere.

Mens event was a shocker-who would have predicted Honda to win this one (sorry if this is a spoiler)? He was expected to finish last or last but one. I thought he would finish 3rd, and Tim would be 1st, based on what I saw. Looks I like I need to study my notes against the COP rules. I just did not feel that Honda brought out the emotion in 'Tosca' but it was a respectable skate. Weiss skated as if to prove that he should have been invited from the beginning. Weir is great to watch even when he has a so so skate, which is what happened last night. He popped both 3A's and just wasn't his usual 'consistent on jumps' self. The last part of his music is same as Irina's from the 2005 season. This is a different type of music for him.

There were a lot of popped jumps, falls, and no clean quads. Sandhu was his usual Jekyll/Hyde self, but mostly Hyde.

The ladies did a little better. At least 2 of them skated great- Sasha and Kimmie. Alissa (4 falls on jumps) and Emily (many doubled jumps) skated like they did not really belong in this group. Why wasn't Bebe Liang invited to this one when Fumie withdrew?

Michelle's absence must have taken some stress away from Sasha, but I don't want to take anything away from her beautiful skate (just one minor mistake on the 3-2-2). In any case she is usually very good at the cheesefests. Would the results have been different if Michelle was skating? Hard to tell. My feeling is that Sasha has matured enough to handle the pressure of worlds & possibly the Olympics.

Kimmie is going to be a force in this sport. She reminds me of a young Michelle- very consistent jumps and her artistry has not yet developed, but it will. She is a very sweet kid. She dressed in the Minnesota Wild's uniform and carried a hockey stick to the ice during the finale. I think the audience loved it.

Shizuka had difficulties on her jumps, except for the 3s-3t which was a beauty. Her Ina Bauer was gorgeous but she took way too much time getting to the 3t (clean) after that.

Joannie had one of the better skates of the night. She looked very good (just one fall), but she does not use many connecting steps/transitions. I was surprised when she finished below Shizuka. She lost one point from her total and I am not sure if it was because she finished behind the music, or if there was a time violation (I was not watching the screen at that moment).

As expected, the competition did not have very high level performances (except Sasha's), but this is the start of the season and the skaters and their programs will get stronger as it progresses.

Overall a good competition.

As a side note, most skaters stayed at the same hotel as I did, so there was a lot of excitement later in the hotel lobby, with kids and their parents seeking autographs and pics with the skaters.

Vash

 

[orchid]

This is the new Sasha. She has reached the level of competitive maturity where she can just go out and skate her programs and not care what the other ladies do.

Absolutely TOO early for this prediction/hope.

 

[mzheng]

2nd 3jump comb ????

Well, a report from Sasha's rink(from a reliable source), stated that Sasha is working on a 2nd 3 jump combination to put into the program - but it isn't consistent enough yet. I believe the person said it is a 2 axel, 3 toe, 2 loop combo and being that her current 2 axel is one of the last jumps that she does in the program, she would rack up a lot of points with that combo in the second half of the program.

So Sasha is working on another combo that she can pull out of the bag if need be.

Under CoP only one 3jump comb allowed. I don't understand the strategy to work 2n 3jump comb.:scratch:

 

[orchid]

Under CoP only one 3jump comb allowed. I don't understand the strategy to work 2n 3jump comb.:scratch:

uhm, too learn one combo with consitiency ???

 

[Mathman]

Cohen is working on 3-3 sequences rather than combinations. I'm not familiar with the point system so are the two worth the same?

Sequences are worth less. But a 3/3 sequences gives a skater a chance to work in a seventh triple without being charged for an extra jumping pass. So if you can't do a triple/triple combo, this is a good strategy to maximize your points.

The other way to get seven triples without a triple/triple is to do a 2A / 3T or 3Lo. I think Carolina does this combination, IIRC. Maybe that is why Sasha is practicing it. As SunshineSlayer says, it would make a great highlight element in the second half of the program. (Even though, as MZheng remainds us, in that case she wouldn't be able to get credit for an opening 3-2-2 also.)

Actually, I think this program (122 points) and her Worlds program (124 points) is about at the maximum of what Sasha is capable of delivering. Irina can still beat it. Michelle is at a slight disadvantage because her spins are not at the highest level. Michelle with a triple/triple is still definitely in the mix.

MM

 

[LBC]

Under CoP only one 3jump comb allowed. I don't understand the strategy to work 2n 3jump comb.:scratch:

So you can see which one you can do more consistantly and so you can have a back up plan. If for some reason you aren't able to do the combo you can to the other one instead. I'm pretty sure that Sasha was going to do the 3lutz/2toe/2loop at worlds last year but because of a bad landing couldn't do the last jump. So she did the 3 jump combo on the flip. If you only practice one combo you box yourself in.

 

[R.D.]

NOT A PREDICTION

So basically, from what I'm reading, Irina would have to screw up majorly in order for Cohen to have a chance at winning anything. And there's still some others in the mix. I haven't heard of a time where there were so many skaters that could possibly contend for OLY gold.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Mathman, Sasha did not do a 3/3 according to reports.

Joe, you predicted MK would announce her retirement during the summer and she didn't. Now you're saying we won't see her at Nationals. I am sure she will be there unless injured or just suddenly loses her will. I am also not convinced that only Irina is Sasha's competition and maybe Shizuka. MK has choreography by TT and great basic skating skills. She can compete with Sasha on the performance mark and still has more solid jumps on the technical side. Sasha has the spins no doubt but we are far from the Olys and anything can happen. Something has been up with MK the last couple of seaons that is for sure. But until she says she quits for whatever reason I am not counting her out. And if others on this board are filled with glee at her alleged decline, well they have been proved wrong before. I too am losing faith in her but not yet completely.

It's not so much of a prediction, Yelyoh, it's a gut feeling I've had for quite awhile.

If she does not skate any competition till Nationals with all those American judges, and then on to the Olys, there really is not that much feedback going for her. The Japanes, the Russians, the Italians, and even the Americans all have favorites for the Olympics. She'll be more than an underdog, she'll be a borderline 'last six to skater' unless, that Nationals where she might skate is more than just a farewell performance.

I don't believe the injury is a hoax, and I support her for not taking further risks with it. A choice of a chronic hip problem or a gold medal may be easy for a teenager to decide but Michelle is a woman now and I am sure other things are in her life besides figure skating.

Joe

 

[LBC]

Sequences are worth less. But a 3/3 sequences gives a skater a chance to work in a seventh triple without being charged for an extra jumping pass. So if you can't do a triple/triple combo, this is a good strategy to maximize your points.

The other way to get seven triples without a triple/triple is to do a 2A / 3T or 3Lo. I think Carolina does this combination, IIRC. Maybe that is why Sasha is practicing it. As SunshineSlayer says, it would make a great highlight element in the second half of the program. (Even though, as MZheng remainds us, in that case she wouldn't be able to get credit for an opening 3-2-2 also.)

Actually, I think this program (122 points) and her Worlds program (124 points) is about at the maximum of what Sasha is capable of delivering. Irina can still beat it. Michelle is at a slight disadvantage because her spins are not at the highest level. Michelle with a triple/triple is still definitely in the mix.

MM

Nicks is smart. He knows that Sasha may just not be able to do the 3/3 consistantly and fully rotated. Why waste all your time on it and try something else. The sequence is the other option. It is less points but you don't get underrotation as much and if you put it in after the 2:00 mark you get bonus points that help negate the sequence penalty. Last year the sequence was after the 2:00 mark maybe 2:10 but that doesn't matter it is after 2:00. I'm sure it is the same this year and if not they'll make it.

I agree that Sasha maybe about maxed out jump wise. Until we see the protocols we won't know about the levels of the other stuff. The articles said level 4's but maybe not all of them. There is still the component marks. The judges haven't been consistant on those marks. Sasha could get higher component marks. We really won't know a comparison until they all skate at the same competition which probably won't be till GPF.