Canadian Skaters: From Favs to Underdogs?

[i love to skate]

So now that the GP series is over, people seem to be forming opinions on who the contenders are. My question, are the Canadian skaters now considered underdogs rather than favourites for medals?

IMO, I think they are. People are counting out Joannie now and don't see her as a legitimate contender. She always rises up when people count her out so this is perfect for her. After Patrick's performance at SC, people seem to be looking at him as an "also-ran". Again, perfect timing as this eases the pressure off of him. BTW he is currently training in Colorado Springs getting help on his axel . D/W are now the North American favourites going into Vancouver which is going to light a fire under V/M.

I think this creates a perfect storm for the Canadian skaters. They have five weeks to train until Nationals and with World Junior hockey being played at the end of the month and the announcement of the Men's Olympic Team being held then, the skaters are going to have minimal media coverage and can really train hard.

The pressure is easing a little bit and it's gonna make the medals and performances much sweeter at the Olympics when most (including some media) are counting them out

Curious to hear other people's thoughts

 

[Tonichelle]

for the most part isn't that how it always is? I mean, yeah your men's field has always been at least in the mix, pairs have had some break outs, and due to 6.0 politics your ice dancers were fab but never got the marks...

and your ladies have always been underdogs it seems

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I hope so.

I don't think anyone are counting V/M out. Most people recognize that the score was close (1.2 points is nothing; especially when one event is missing). I think the confusion here has to do with the general uneasiness regarding the competition. Of the top five (B/A, D/S twice, V/M, D/W) who goes to the Olympics? How are Shabalin's knees? What state are DelScho's programs in (we've always got to take press releases with a grain of salt, of course. We saw how undertrained V/M were last year)? Can B/A really bring up their scores to compete with their countrymates. If they can't entirely, what does the UFSFA do (would you really abandon your number one team performers of the quadrennial in favour of a team who has yet to medal at worlds?). That said, I think people can't deny that D/W are genuine contenders for the top of the podium in terms of scoring ability. I'd be surprised if they won (a first for a team that hasn't medalled at worlds), though.

Chan.... I was genuinely surprised at the seriousness of his injury, truth be told. They clearly underplayed it when first announcing it, but at Skate Canada, he was severely undertrained. The problem for him is that, as someone else pointed out, when you lose training time due to injury, muscle memory weakens and sometimes old habits rear themselve. In his case, the old habits include an inconsistent triple axel. Without a quad (and I think we're all in agreement that he won't get one by Vancouver), how far can he go? The thing is the men's field is so so broad. The number of skaters who COULD medal if they skate their best is nearing double digits, and this is regardless of how other skaters perform (in my mind: Abbott, Weir, Takahashi, Oda, Plushenko, Lambiel, Chan, Ponsero, Verner, Lysacek).

Rochette.... No idea. What benefits her is that no one is really rising to the plate. The ladies simply speaking don't have as rich a field as the men. My worry is that I don't know why she isn't doing as well as she should be. Three underwhelming performances in a row. It's telling that her personal best came form a fluff competition where there was no pressure (Japan Open). There really shouldn't have been any pressure at CoC but she faltered. The thing I like is that she IS showing fight, and has been since last season. That loop at Skate Canada, the 3-2 in her SP at Worlds 09.

Nationals will definitely tell a tale. Not only for the top contenders, but for those second slots. Chipeur has regressed from last year (has he landed a combo in competition yet?), Ten isn't doing particularly well. And who would've guessed our only men's GP medal would've come from Sawyer? D/B have her injury to deal with; D/D aren't skating to their abilities, L/H are coming back from injury, B/M are unrefined. And let's not start on the ladies. Only ice dance has been genuinely exciting for us this season, I think.

 

[CARA]

Except V/M, I agree that Canadian skaters are underdogs right now. I also agree that it's not a bad thing to be an underdog for them given the build-in pressure.

 

[jennylovskt]

The number of skaters who COULD medal if they skate their best is nearing double digits, and this is regardless of how other skaters perform (in my mind: Abbott, Weir, Takahashi, Oda, Plushenko, Lambiel, Chan, Ponsero, Verner, Lysacek).

You must have forgotten Joubert.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I'm curious about the extent of his injury, but yeah - I neglected to mention him. Strange

 

[jennylovskt]

Regarding to the thread title, except V/M, I think it's obvious. And I agree with everyone that it's better this way. I hope that Canadian medias realize that giving some space and less pressure to their own athletes would help these athletes. Buttle did not do well under the home country pressure in 2006 Worlds. Brian Orser did not do well enough under the same pressure in 1988 Olympics (well, he didn't fall or pop out any thing, but he didn't maximize his jumps and skated very tight). I hope that V/M (my favorite pair in ice dance), Chan, and Rochette (never liked her) do well this time.

 

[Fossi]

Maybe the problem lies with them having so much hype and not living up to it so far this season. Only time will tell, but so far they've been underwhelming.

 

[Layfan]

I don't think we can really think of Joannie Rochette as an underdog. She's still the reigning world silver medalist and she still got that amazing 70 for her SP at skate Canada. So she had a couple bad skates - who didn't this season?
Who is she supposed to be underdog to? Okay, so everyone's an underdog to Kim Yuna. And you can argue Miki Ando has been hard to beat. But other than that...
I think you have to consider Rochette a threat. I'm sure all her competitors do.

 

[Phoenix347]

As others have said I don't look at V/M as underdogs. They are neck and neck with the best in the world. Maybe Tessa should trim her dress for the OD even though it looks lovely on her.

As for Chan, I hope he can bounce back because he has some really nice qualities to his skating. It's just that his jumps are not there right now due to the long injury recuperation. I hope he can skate better at nationals (how could he not?) than SC. It would be a shame if he bombs the Olympics as he might very well retire after it. I don't know if he can win the Olympics even at full health and at peak condition (there are so many talented male skaters out there right now: Oda, Evans, Takahashi, Joubert (I sincerely hope he'll recover from his injury to compete in good condition; I like him in spite of his penchant for hip thrusts and love of Matrix music), Abbott, Verner, Weir and yes, even Lambiel and I'm #1 Plushenko (shame about Lutai) ) for him to have a good chance at gold medal but it would be nice to see him medal.

I would not count Rochette out at all. She sometimes has problems skating in Asia (2009 GPF at Tokyo, 2009 Cup of China) but I do think she'll get some energy and other benefits skating at home. She'll definitely be a contender for a medal at Vancouver. I do believe she'll recover from her bad LP at Tokyo and do well at the nationals. Of course whoever the second Canadian lady is, she should probably not be considered a medal threat.

Dube and Davidson are the truly underdogs. Just look at the field packed with incredibly powerful Chinese team (except for Z/Z right now but I do hope they recover for the Olympics... if they do, there is a slight possibility of a Chinese sweep!) plus the Germans (I hope they ditch their clown make up for the Olympics but I'll guess that would ruin their "theme" with the music) and let's not forget the Russians. Yes, it would be a major challenger for them to medal.

 

[evangeline]

V/M are not underdogs; I doubt D/W will fare as well as they did at the GPF in February...because the Olympics includes CDs.

 

[chuckm]

I don't think we can really think of Joannie Rochette as an underdog. She's still the reigning world silver medalist and she still got that amazing 70 for her SP at skate Canada. So she had a couple bad skates - who didn't this season?
Who is she supposed to be underdog to? Okay, so everyone's an underdog to Kim Yuna. And you can argue Miki Ando has been hard to beat. But other than that...
I think you have to consider Rochette a threat. I'm sure all her competitors do.

The problem is that Rochette's gone downhill. At Cup of China, she had a very bad SP where she popped two jumps. Her FS was decent, but she had a forward landing on her opening 3Z, so she had to leave out the 3-jump combination, and she URd and fell on the 2A.

Joannie had a clean SP at Skate Canada, but I think only on home ice could she have received a 70 for it. Her SC FS was far from impressive, with two doubled jumps, a step-out on the 3F and a hand down on the 3Lo.

But at the GPF, both SP and FS were bad. In the SP, her landing on the 3Z was again forward, and she stepped out of the 2T. The FS was a total disaster; she landed only two clean triples (both in her two-jump sequence), doubled both lutzes, singled the loop, and URd and fell out of the salchow.

Joannie's not known to double and pop jumps much, and this is a worrisome trend this year. It's as if her attack---and her confidence---have taken a holiday.

 

[prettykeys]

Joannie's not known to double and pop jumps much, and this is a worrisome trend this year. It's as if her attack---and her confidence---have taken a holiday.

She's not "known" for doubling and popping, but as I recall, it's an old habit of hers. I kind of thought she'd gained more confidence, especially after her Japan Open performance, but maybe she put some pressure on herself at the GPF; plus, she had to skate right after an outstanding Akiko. And perhaps there just wasn't enough time to recuperate after SC.

 

[chuckm]

She's not "known" for doubling and popping, but as I recall, it's an old habit of hers. I kind of thought she'd gained more confidence, especially after her Japan Open performance, but maybe she put some pressure on herself at the GPF; plus, she had to skate right after an outstanding Akiko. And perhaps there just wasn't enough time to recuperate after SC.

If Rochette had skated a better SP, she wouldn't have had to skate after Akiko. And Akiko competed at SC and recuperated just fine.

 

[prettykeys]

If Rochette had skated a better SP, she wouldn't have had to skate after Akiko. And Akiko competed at SC and recuperated just fine.

You're not making very good points.

 

[doug_log]

You must have forgotten Joubert.

And Kozuka! A silver in the GPF last year and highest ranked Japanese man at worlds 2009. Not too shabby.

 

[prettykeys]

This is something of an off-topic comment but still somewhat related to the Canadian skating community.

I was looking up the JGPF results and stumbled upon the 2nd-place winners in Pairs, Narumi Takahashi & Mervin Tran for Japan. Mervin Tran? Tran is a Chinese or Vietnamese last name so I dug a little deeper, only to find out that he is a Canadian-born figure skater (of Vietnamese and Cambodian ethnicity.)

What the hell? I am sorry but that is unacceptable to me. Someone who is born in Canada, lives in Canada with all it has to offer (education, health care, etc.), learned to skate in Canada and then partners up with someone and continues to practice in Canada with Canadian coaches...while representing another country...I just feel that that is a little too much treachery.

I realize that nationalism is something of an outdated concept in today's increasingly multicultural world (and perhaps more so in Canada?) but I still can't help but feel this is a slap in the face that wouldn't be well-tolerated in too many other countries.

The only similar situation to this that I can think of is when Yuko Kawaguchi decided to represent Russia with Alexander Smirnov, but at least she was educated in part in Russia and they have a Russian coach, so there is some basis for respecting Russia in that sense.

 

[inside edge]

I would not count Rochette out at all. She sometimes has problems skating in Asia (2009 GPF at Tokyo, 2009 Cup of China) but I do think she'll get some energy and other benefits skating at home. She'll definitely be a contender for a medal at Vancouver. I do believe she'll recover from her bad LP at Tokyo and do well at the nationals. Of course whoever the second Canadian lady is, she should probably not be considered a medal threat.

I agree. :yes:

 

[Phoenix347]

This is something of an off-topic comment but still somewhat related to the Canadian skating community.

I was looking up the JGPF results and stumbled upon the 2nd-place winners in Pairs, Narumi Takahashi & Mervin Tran for Japan. Mervin Tran? Tran is a Chinese or Vietnamese last name so I dug a little deeper, only to find out that he is a Canadian-born figure skater (of Vietnamese and Cambodian ethnicity.)

What the hell? I am sorry but that is unacceptable to me. Someone who is born in Canada, lives in Canada with all it has to offer (education, health care, etc.), learned to skate in Canada and then partners up with someone and continues to practice in Canada with Canadian coaches...while representing another country...I just feel that that is a little too much treachery.

I realize that nationalism is something of an outdated concept in today's increasingly multicultural world (and perhaps more so in Canada?) but I still can't help but feel this is a slap in the face that wouldn't be well-tolerated in too many other countries.

The only similar situation to this that I can think of is when Yuko Kawaguchi decided to represent Russia with Alexander Smirnov, but at least she was educated in part in Russia and they have a Russian coach, so there is some basis for respecting Russia in that sense.

Maybe it's puppy love? Probably couldn't find an appropriate partner in Canada and the only way to have the partner of his choice was to submit to Narumi 's demands but it's better to train in Canada?? Strange circumstances, nevertheless. There is also a case of a Russian gymnast who competes for Germany due to certain circumstances. Also, there is Aliona Savechenko competing for Germany (she's from Ukraine). Let's also not forget Tanith Belbin was born in Canada but a now a dual citizen but competes for US.

 

[sk8rdad]

This is something of an off-topic comment but still somewhat related to the Canadian skating community.

I was looking up the JGPF results and stumbled upon the 2nd-place winners in Pairs, Narumi Takahashi & Mervin Tran for Japan. Mervin Tran? Tran is a Chinese or Vietnamese last name so I dug a little deeper, only to find out that he is a Canadian-born figure skater (of Vietnamese and Cambodian ethnicity.)

What the hell? I am sorry but that is unacceptable to me. Someone who is born in Canada, lives in Canada with all it has to offer (education, health care, etc.), learned to skate in Canada and then partners up with someone and continues to practice in Canada with Canadian coaches...while representing another country...I just feel that that is a little too much treachery.

I realize that nationalism is something of an outdated concept in today's increasingly multicultural world (and perhaps more so in Canada?) but I still can't help but feel this is a slap in the face that wouldn't be well-tolerated in too many other countries.

The only similar situation to this that I can think of is when Yuko Kawaguchi decided to represent Russia with Alexander Smirnov, but at least she was educated in part in Russia and they have a Russian coach, so there is some basis for respecting Russia in that sense.

There are many examples of skaters who were born in one country but compete for another. Caitlin Weaver just recently got Canadian citizenship, she was born American. Anasina of Anasina/Pezarat was Russian and skated for France the Duscheneys were can Canadian and also skated for France. This is actually quite common and becoming more so. Get over it!