Entering the Nebelhorn qualifying process: how to determine which athletes will go.

[jenaj]

I think sending Amber to Nebelhorn would be a mistake. She managed a silver medal at Nationals last year but so did Ross Miner in 2018. It doesn't mean she is the US's second-best skater or that she is better than Mariah or Alysa. Her international record is pretty much non-existent. She may have a consistent triple axel but there is no evidence to back that up. If Alysa has her 3A back, they should send her. It seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

[readernick]

I think sending Amber to Nebelhorn would be a mistake. She managed a silver medal at Nationals last year but so did Ross Miner in 2018. It doesn't mean she is the US's second-best skater or that she is better than Mariah or Alysa. Her international record is pretty much non-existent. She may have a consistent triple axel but there is no evidence to back that up. If Alysa has her 3A back, they should send her. It seems like a no-brainer to me.

I think they should look at the way they are competing now and not prejudge the situation. Amber has the best jumps ( in terms of quality) among the three ladies in contention. If she is skating consistently and landing her 3A, why wouldn't she be sent? Mariah could also definitely secure a spot if her 3-3 is actually rotated. Alysa could secure the spot with solid 3-3s, too. Her 3A (if consistent and rotated) would definitely be a great addition. However, I think the USFS is making a very good decision in waiting to announce the competitors until after this competition. Skaters can post anything they want on social media what matters is how they perform in competition.

 

[auser]

I think for the US, the Cranberry competition will really be important on this score. All the men candidates will be there - from Vincent Zhou to Tomoki Hiwatashi and Yaroslav Paniot. The only man not there is Andrew Torgashev (what a pity). But exciting all the same! And the women's competition should be determinant as well. The women mentioned in various threads are all there.

Any news on Canada? Which young man will try to get that second spot?

For Israel it seems clear Daniel and Alexei are in for a fight (but in their case the results might help in getting National qualification - although there are many more competitions to determine that as well as other skaters -as Israel has already got a spot).

Agree about Torgashev. I enjoyed his skate for the recent Peggy Fleming comp.

 

[TontoK]

I think sending Amber to Nebelhorn would be a mistake. She managed a silver medal at Nationals last year but so did Ross Miner in 2018. It doesn't mean she is the US's second-best skater or that she is better than Mariah or Alysa. Her international record is pretty much non-existent. She may have a consistent triple axel but there is no evidence to back that up. If Alysa has her 3A back, they should send her. It seems like a no-brainer to me.

About that...

I thought Ross was hosed during the selection, and the interim has done nothing to change my mind.

Sending Adam instead of Ross accomplished a great deal for Adam, but did nothing for the Team. Nothing.

Adam finished 10th in singles. Ross might or might not have finished better than that, but would it really have mattered if he had finished 8th? Or 12th? Or whatever?

In terms of the Team Event, Adam skated the free program, where he finished third of the five finalists. Had Ross skated that event, even if he had finished first or fifth, it would not have impacted the bronze medal. Team USA wouldn't have caught Russia for silver, and wouldn't have lost to Italy, no matter the outcome.

Ross had the skate of his life at Nationals, and was sent packing. Adam skated fair to middling at both events.

Adam parlayed his Olympic experience into "celebrity" status, and good for him. Ross was denied the chance for his Olympic dream so Adam could do that.

And, yes, I understand the selection was fair under the rules. My point is that the rules suck.

 

[daffygirl]

I think they should look at the way they are competing now and not prejudge the situation. Amber has the best jumps ( in terms of quality) among the three ladies in contention. If she is skating consistently and landing her 3A, why wouldn't she be sent? Mariah could also definitely secure a spot if her 3-3 is actually rotated. Alysa could secure the spot with solid 3-3s, too. Her 3A (if consistent and rotated) would definitely be a great addition. However, I think the USFS is making a very good decision in waiting to announce the competitors until after this competition. Skaters can post anything they want on social media what matters is how they perform in competition.

It's definitley smart of USFS to evaluate all three women and not prejudge. Unfortunately for Amber, she among the three, has the worst record for her nerves getting to her, so I feel like she will have to really knock it out of the park to get chosen for Nebelhorn. In other words, if she has the highest score of the three, but one of the others is close, they could cite "body of work" and go with the second-highest scorer.

 

[TontoK]

It's definitley smart of USFS to evaluate all three women and not prejudge. Unfortunately for Amber, she among the three, has the worst record for her nerves getting to her, so I feel like she will have to really knock it out of the park to get chosen for Nebelhorn. In other words, if she has the highest score of the three, but one of the others is close, they could cite "body of work" and go with the second-highest scorer.

Didn't Amber beat the other contenders at US Nationals in their most recent head-to-head? And if she does it again, you're saying that STILL won't be enough?

This is why I dislike "body or work" arguments.

"My body of work is very good. Except when it REALLY matters - when the pressure is at its absolute greatest. Discounting that, I'm the obvious choice."

 

[el henry]

About that...

I thought Ross was hosed during the selection, and the interim has done nothing to change my mind.

Sending Adam instead of Ross accomplished a great deal for Adam, but did nothing for the Team. Nothing.

Adam finished 10th in singles. Ross might or might not have finished better than that, but would it really have mattered if he had finished 8th? Or 12th? Or whatever?

In terms of the Team Event, Adam skated the free program, where he finished third of the five finalists. Had Ross skated that event, even if he had finished first or fifth, it would not have impacted the bronze medal. Team USA wouldn't have caught Russia for silver, and wouldn't have lost to Italy, no matter the outcome.

Ross had the skate of his life at Nationals, and was sent packing. Adam skated fair to middling at both events.

Adam parlayed his Olympic experience into "celebrity" status, and good for him. Ross was denied the chance for his Olympic dream so Adam could do that.

And, yes, I understand the selection was fair under the rules. My point is that the rules suck.

You know that I am on Team "Whoever Finishes One Two Three at Nats". Ross should have gone.

I am going to pose a minor quibble about Adam's celebrity status in quotes. Adam is indeed a celebrity, not in quotes. He has made his mark outside the skating world, he is truly known outside the skating world, and even in sports, I am quite enjoying his commentary at the Tokyo Olympics.

Jumping off, and not at all directed at you, I've never quite understood folks who think that fame or fortune or making your way in the world after skating should somehow be related to your skating accomplishments. I have great respect for some like Adam, who has made his way using the opportunities presented to him and carved his niche and good for him

OK, off topic finished and back to our regularly scheduled thread

 

[daffygirl]

Didn't Amber beat the other contenders at US Nationals in their most recent head-to-head? And if she does it again, you're saying that STILL won't be enough?

This is why I dislike "body or work" arguments.

"My body of work is very good. Except when it REALLY matters - when the pressure is at its absolute greatest. Discounting that, I'm the obvious choice."

I’m not saying that. I’m saying that USFS might say that. I just don’t think they trust her unfortunately. I hope if she scores the highest of the three that I’m proven wrong.

 

[TontoK]

You know that I am on Team "Whoever Finishes One Two Three at Nats". Ross should have gone.

I am going to pose a minor quibble about Adam's celebrity status in quotes. Adam is indeed a celebrity, not in quotes. He has made his mark outside the skating world, he is truly known outside the skating world, and even in sports, I am quite enjoying his commentary at the Tokyo Olympics.

Jumping off, and not at all directed at you, I've never quite understood folks who think that fame or fortune or making your way in the world after skating should somehow be related to your skating accomplishments. I have great respect for some like Adam, who has made his way using the opportunities presented to him and carved his niche and good for him

OK, off topic finished and back to our regularly scheduled thread

Fair point, friend.

My snark quotes weren't directed solely at Adam. I roll my eyes at most people with a celebrity designation.

 

[ladyjane]

I've just read that Edrian Celestino has come out first in the first part of the Olympic Qualifier Evaluation: https://www.gmanetwork.com/entertai...leads-phsu-olympic-qualifier-evaluation/story.

Christopher Caluza was second (quite close) and Michael Martinez in third. All three skaters still have to take part in a second event to determine who eventually will go to Nebelhorn to try and qualify for the Olympics.

 

[MCsAngel2]

Didn't Amber beat the other contenders at US Nationals in their most recent head-to-head? And if she does it again, you're saying that STILL won't be enough?

This is why I dislike "body or work" arguments.

"My body of work is very good. Except when it REALLY matters - when the pressure is at its absolute greatest. Discounting that, I'm the obvious choice."

The difference between second place (Amber) and fourth place (Alysa) was 1.94 points. Those three places were effectively a tie. And that was without Alysa doing a 3A. They won't be that close at Cranberry.

And Mariah was behind Amber by nearly 16 points at nationals. She isn't going to be able to score highly enough to really be in the Nebelhorn conversation.

 

[TontoK]

The difference between second place (Amber) and fourth place (Alysa) was 1.94 points. Those three places were effectively a tie. And that was without Alysa doing a 3A. They won't be that close at Cranberry.

And Mariah was behind Amber by nearly 16 points at nationals. She isn't going to be able to score highly enough to really be in the Nebelhorn conversation.

You may be correct in that there will be a clear winner. In fact, I'm inclined to agree with your prediction.

But let's allow the athletes to decide this, rather than a committee.

 

[karne]

I can't believe we're still in a place where people think pulling one good comp out of your butt after a long period of mediocrity is more deserving of an Olympic spot over good performances over a long period and one so-so comp. I still don't like Adam that much but there is no doubt at all that he was the better choice and he had been skating well enough that season to be part of that conversation.

Plus, think about it this way. However inadvertently, Body of Work saved USFS from having to do an awkward dance whenever that Olympic team is mentioned - since if the people saying the team should have been the other way had their way, that team would have contained a sexual abuser.

At the end of the day, Miner hadn't been skating consistently well for years. Not just that season, literal years. And so poorly that he wasn't even in the discussion. Not even remotely.

And he was given opportunities. He was named to 4CC. He could have gone to Worlds. He chose to stay home and sulk. Maybe, looking back at his and his coaches' reactions...we shouldn't have been so surprised.

 

[ladyjane]

I really didn't want to bring that discussion up...I intended this thread to be about how countries decide who is going to Nebelhorn this season. Not about whether USFS was wrong or right in 2018 after US Nationals. I don't mind the discussion, but can we please get back on track? In 2017-2018 it was already clear that there were 3 spots available for American men, and the Nebelhorn process did not come into play.

 

[karne]

Anyway, the Australian ice dancers will go head to head at Cranberry, for the first time since 4CC 2020. I imagine that this will have a significant impact on Nebelhorn selection, as opportunities to see them head-to-head are thin on the ground and getting thinner by the day.

For the US men, they should send whoever is in the best form at the time. I don't see any reason to do otherwise. If that's Zhou, so be it, but if it's someone else, so be it. When a spot's on the line and you only have one option, you send the one in form. But it's gotta be this season's form, not relying on a single result from years past as a justification.

 

[TontoK]

I really didn't want to bring that discussion up...I intended this thread to be about how countries decide who is going to Nebelhorn this season. Not about whether USFS was wrong or right in 2018 after US Nationals. I don't mind the discussion, but can we please get back on track? In 2017-2018 it was already clear that there were 3 spots available for American men, and the Nebelhorn process did not come into play.

My apologies for the sidebar ranting.

To address your question: The top scoring USA man and woman at Cranberry should go to Nebelhorn.

 

[Hyena]

For the US women, I could easily see Alysa, Amber, or Mariah placing highest and getting the Nebelhorn spot. Alysa has the buzz, with the attempted difficulty and has been pretty consistent in the past. But Mariah could easily be the cleanest and end up taking it (she has performed much better than her 2021 Nationals performance so I don't expect to see her looking the same. Amber, meanwhile, has tremendous style and difficulty but has tended to miss more often than she's hit. If she hits like Nationals and is looking good outside the competition too, she could get it, but it's not a given.

For the US men, I have no idea, but my gut says Paniot.

 

[mrrice]

I think sending Amber to Nebelhorn would be a mistake. She managed a silver medal at Nationals last year but so did Ross Miner in 2018. It doesn't mean she is the US's second-best skater or that she is better than Mariah or Alysa. Her international record is pretty much non-existent. She may have a consistent triple axel but there is no evidence to back that up. If Alysa has her 3A back, they should send her. It seems like a no-brainer to me.

Look, We can't tell a skater they lack international experience and then send skaters that she recently defeated to an International Event and leave her off that team. Amber has done everything she can in the last 2 Nationals to prove herself. I love Mariah but, she should NOT receive an International ahead of Amber after their performances and placement at the most recent Nationals.

 

[ElSoteroLoco]

How is Gracie even in this discussion? There are at least 12 American Ladies skating better than her this year. Personally, I would send Alysa Liu, followed by Amber and then Mariah. They need to lock down the third spot that Karen and Bradie worked so hard to earn from World Champs.

I 100% agree with this ENTIRE statement!!

 

[mrrice]

I 100% agree with this ENTIRE statement!!

We talk about Gracie because she was our champion for so many years. My Heart will always be with her but, I agree that there are many skaters who are ranked above her and if spots are on the line, we have to send them.