How much will Lipnitskaya's score deflate at Worlds?

[koatcue]

What would she get if clean? Does she have a chance to win or not? Your opinion..I consider her, Mao and Caro 3 favourites with Gold as a dark horse

 

[wootie]

She'll definitely receive very high, inflated scores but only so the Sochi games don't look so obviously like the fraud that they were in terms of scoring.

They will be somewhat deflated, though, because the judges likely aren't getting money, goodies, or favors anymore now that the Sochi games are over...so the incentive to cheat is a bit less.

 

[fleeting]

Personally, I'm thinking high scores but deflated from Sochi. They can use the excuse of the skaters being 'burnt out' to justify lower scores while trying to go back to the normal scale.

 

[moviechick]

Her rising PCS was also a reward for her consistency which she has lost a bit so it will either plateau or go down slightly but not much.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I just want to see her skate clean again. I think if she skates to her standard she'll be on the podium. Any medal at worlds will be a nice addition to her very successful season. I do not expect any more inflation and predict if she goes clean a 200-205. Whoever finishes higher between her and Mao is clearly the ladies skater of the year. At least IMHO.

 

[caseyl23]

Her scores should deflate in line with the other top skaters if she skates well. The difference between Julia and Adelina is that Adelina is a skater the judges have wanted to reward in the past but had taken herself out of the running with mistakes. Julia has been consistently ranked with the top ladies since debuting in the seniors last season. I don't think she can beat a clean Mao Asada, but at her best, she could be fighting for second or third. I think she'd need help to win gold, though.

If she makes mistakes, I think that'll be interesting. We saw where she finished with two falls at the Olympics, but I think in general, the judges are more forgiving of mistakes at the Olympics. We've seen that consistently. At Worlds, I could imagine her getting hit harder than she did in Sochi if she falls again.

 

[Figure 8's]

Worlds is in Japan. I expect Mao to be over scored and win unless she completely bombs like her short program in the Olympics.

 

[FSGMT]

I just hope she receives the PCS she deserves, which are (for a clean skate) not more than 30-31 and 62-63 (as she actually received at SC and GPF)!

 

[Mathman]

Julia will do fine.

 

[aschiutza]

Oh dear, so now Adelina is not going and people need to go on someone else....

IMO, at the olympics 7ß% of the slaters were getting inflated scores. Not only the russian. So i expect only that all scores will go down a bit.

 

[volk]

Oh dear, so now Adelina is not going and people need to go on someone else....

IMO, at the olympics 7ß% of the slaters were getting inflated scores. Not only the russian. So i expect only that all scores will go down a bit.

People need someone to hate on. Julia maybe the victim now.

 

[anyanka]

I think everyone's scores will deflate across the board, let's say about 10 points each.

 

[blue_idealist]

I think they'll be about the same as in the individual event. I have a feeling she'll fall once and still be on the podium, but won't win.

 

[Ace]

Yawn. Adelina isn't going so let's hate on the other Russian girl. Hope she skates clean, if she does she can definitely get on the podium.

 

[NMURA]

The scores will deflate across the board but the Russians will lose the home advantages. Plus Lipnitskaya's "reputation" could be dropped in comparison with the Team event. Probably 12-14 points.

 

[Isabel_O'Reilly]

She'll definitely receive very high, inflated scores but only so the Sochi games don't look so obviously like the fraud that they were in terms of scoring.

They will be somewhat deflated, though, because the judges likely aren't getting money, goodies, or favors anymore now that the Sochi games are over...so the incentive to cheat is a bit less.

It depends on if she goes clean and how her PCS is scored. Personally, I think 31 is fair for the SP, going up to 32 when it's skated extremely well. However, she definitely should not exceed 65/66 (regular competition, not the Olympics, where scores are strange for all the skaters) for the LP unless she skates the same or better as her Euros performance. She lost a minimum of 7 points in the SP and at least 6 points in the LP on TES. Taking into account her lowered PCS and the normal TES scores she receives:

TES SP: 38 + PCS SP: 31 = 69 TES LP: 69 + PCS LP 64 = 133 (I'm not listing her highest TES or PCS scores of the competitions held outside of Russia, just the scores she's likely to receive.)

So she'll be somewhere in the range of 201-202 points skating clean, possibly as high as 204-205 if she skates like at Euros.
If she has a stumble on an element it will depend which one. For example the most costly mistake she's ever made was that fall on the downgraded 3Flip in the SP. Overall disrupting the last couple of element cost her around 8/9 points It was the only such mistake she's made in over three years under unique circumstances, so I will assume it probably won't happen again.

Regarding what people keep saying about her PCS: While I acknowledge that sometimes they have inexplicably been too high, people are being somewhat biased the opposite way. 62 for a clean skate, really? For me it depends more on whether they illustrate the clear gap between certain skaters. At Euros for example when people were saying it was too high, I agreed butnot my the margin they were saying. Since Carolina was at 71, Adelina and Yulia should have definitely been at least at 66 with the performances they gave there, not necessarily for another skate, though.

 

[poleptina]

If she skates clean maybe she'll have scores like she did at Skate Canada.

 

[cebi26]

Altough many in here would love to se all the Russian girls way low in positions, if she skates clean she almost certainly will win a medal, with Mao being the favorite for gold.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

She got 140 for her LP at Euros so I think she would still be in the upper 130s (at least) if she's clean. Only Mao, Caro and a clean Akiko can get higher PCS, even in Japan.

Her only two weaknesses, jump height and speed, are not penalized that harshly under the judging system. She can make up the jump GOE with difficult entrances and can get away with skating slower if she's doing more transitions.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Alot. There is a reason Sotnikova pulled out of worlds. This is no longer Russian Nationals disguised as the Olympics but a real international event.

I'm sure she's very tired after winning the OGM by skating the second best LP of all time. A majority of the panel thought it was the best so it's too bad she couldn't land that 3-2-2 clean so the entire panel could agree it was the best ever.