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Yes please particularly Guillaume :2thumbs:
Ice Dance OGM Contenders 2018
- Thread starter Anyasnake
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Yes please particularly Guillaume :2thumbs:
We could wait a little before saying that the Latin dances do not suit them
Sincerely, I do not believe at all in a big surprise for the olympics games: I do not imagine a new couple winning a medal. After the games, it is possible (if V/M stops)
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Not sure if this is a semi-serious thought, or more one of those impossible wish things. Because I really like them, but the odds are against them even making the Olympic team. And even if they did, I'd love to see them in the mix after the games, but there's no way they're winning in 2018.
Tessa and Scott have a seasons best of 198.62 vs 164.83 for the Parsons. Which is a 33.79 point gap. Obviously the seniors have slightly higher base values, so I tried to estimate the difference. There's an additional lift and choreo lift in the senior FD, and the partial step sequence is worth more than the second blues pattern the juniors have. If I say a level 3 for the PSt (V/M were the only team to get a level 4 at Worlds), that adds up to 7.3 points in BV. If I give them 1.46 in GOE for the two lifts (the highest GOE for a lift they got at JW) and 2.20 for the PSt (what P/C, C/B and S/S got at Worlds), then I can estimate a senior score of 177.25 (obviously there are lots of factors, but I think it's a decent rough estimate). That would still leave a 21.37 point gap between them and V/M.
If you look at the top three teams right now, none of them had a jump in scores like that in their first season. P/C scored 143.26 at JW 2013 and 141.49 at Worlds 2014 (and 143.26 at TEB). The Shibs had 168.35 at JW 2010 and 163.79 at Worlds 2011. V/M had 172.57 at JW 2006 and 183.94 at Worlds 2007, so they are the best example of a jump in scores of the three. But when you add in the differences in base value (5.6 for combo lift and 4.7 for twizzles) and estimate GOE (+0.57 and +0.43), that would be 183.87, so the jump is entirely having more elements. And I really don't see them having a way better senior debut that V/M.
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Do you really think they won't win? I have never been good at predicting who will in Dance. This definitely the group that I will have to see how they in competition at the GPF. Before that, it's too close to call.
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Do I really think the Parsons won't win the 2018 Olympics by beating Tessa and Scott, Gaby and Guillaume, the Shibs, etc? No I don't. The Parsons are good but there is a big gap in both scores and skill between them and the top two and it will even be hard for them to make the team.
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Neither do I. I don't remember them all by name but, I think the Parsons' are like the Kolyada, and Nathan Chen of Dance. They're 2022 material. I don't even see them on the Podium at US Nationals. Dance judges tend to be a bit more "Traditional" than the other judges. They seem to be a bit more of the "Pay your dues" type of people. I hope that made sense. Maybe Bronze but, I can't see them beating the Shibs or Chock and Bates, or Madison and Zach unless one of those teams has an off day.
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The Parsons are the world junior champions and US junior champions if you didn't know. I honestly think it's more about ability than "paying your dues" in this case. I really like the Parsons and they are really good, but US dance is so deep and so strong that it's hard to crack. But you aren't wrong that dance tended to have a "wait your turn" mentality. It still does to some extent, though my sense is that has lessened since Tessa and Scott came onto the scene and climbed the ranks very quickly and then we saw how quick Gaby and Guillaume shot up a couple of years ago.
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And we're talking JR level, compared to SR level teams. Parsons are JR National and World champions. Hawayek/Baker were 2014 National and World champs and have not yet been able to break into top 3 at SR Nationals, or made World team. US dance is strong at the top. Will be interesting to see exactly how Parsons play into the mix...
This is the "issue" with big nations. The depth of Ice Dance in the US is too big and team like Hawayek/Baker can't go to worlds, and IMO you absolutely need those competitions if you want to improve because it's a different feeling.
When you look at JR vs SR, some teams struggled more in one part... like Hawayek/Baker. On the opposite, a team like P/C struggled in Juniors until their last year but really had a revelation in Seniors. I always expected Stepanova/Bukin to break through like P/C did, because they were SO good in juniors. They seemed to stagnate a bit but they are getting even better now, it takes time. Another case is the Shibs : really good in JR, really good in SR, wet down a bit, managed to get back. Ice Dance is NOT that predictable.
So for the Parsons will see, I absolutely loved their FD this year. But one team that striked me is Carreira/Ponomarenko. You know when you're looking at one team and you're like : "these kids are GOOD. They might make it in the future".
Anthony is good, could be very good, if he gets his twizzles under control, his partner has her moments. Their dynamic reminds me somewhat of L/D but Anthony presents his partner more softly.
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I absolutely agree. Christina and Anthony have the "It" Factor.
It's sort of like pairs, though ... nobody ever retires. And I don't see C/B, S/S or H/D retiring soon, much less Hawayek/Baker. And don't forget Pogrebinsky/Benoit, who are dazzling.
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Theres a good chance whoever wins the OBM from the US won't go to worlds allowing HB to go. interesting that upcoming top notch dancers have roots in Olympic champions - Bukin and Ponomarenko. I wonder if the Parsons sibs will be the next shibsibs. They technically are wonderful.
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Odds are it will be a US team, but it might not be.
If it is a us team, if it's h/d who have not won a world medal, then they're certainly not skipping worlds. Shibs might have more in the way of post-Olympic opportunities, but I also don't think they would for sure skip worlds. I can't see C/b skipping either.
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Don't underestimate the amount Olympics takes out of teams.
It is such a big hype and so physically/mentally exhausting that many teams haven't got anything left to go to Worlds and would quite happily end their season after the Olympics.
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Completely true. Look at Sarah Hughes and Tara Lipinski. Both of them skipped Worlds after winning their OGM's and even though Michelle attended Worlds both times, winning in 1998, and Silver in 2002. It always seemed bitter sweet. Yuna was clearly exhausted following her win in 2010 and I think most OGM's are still feeling the whirlwind of the press junkets and post Olympic performances. Depending on the skater, I think winning a medal of any kind is enough to satisfy a dream. If Patrick Chan wins the OGM, I think he will definitely skip Worlds and bask in the glow of his looooong career. I'm sure he'd have a TON of press to do when he got back to Canada.
I feel the same way about Evgenia. She's already won back to back World Titles and like Patrick, I know she'll have a Ton of TV interviews and will be in demand for several new and exciting prospects...Adelina's life completely changed after her win in Sochi and I imagine the same thing will happen to Med.
IMO, It's the skaters who finish 4th-6th that have the most motivation to go from the Olympics straight into Worlds. The thought of just missing the podium can be very motivating. Should Med or Kaitlyn win the OGM, I would imagine the respective #2 skaters will take the lead at Worlds. Michelle Kwan was that Lady twice and she went both times. Irina went in 2002 and Won her first title after losing the OGM to Hughes. It really depends on motivation.
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