International (i.e. non-US) Ladies Speculation Thread

[goldenpleasures]

I think BoP is right; Kiira often seems to be concentrating so hard on getting the elements right that her personality doesn't shine through, but it's certainly there. If her technique has indeed improved this season, hopefully we'll see her skate with more freedom and confidence in future. She has always had style and elegance.

 

[Meli_Huber]

lepisto got out of Gp?I thought it was only from Japan Open!

Mmh, I thought the same!
From what I heard she is out from Japan Open, but hopes to be in form for the GPs.

 

[SerpentineSteps]

lepisto got out of Gp?I thought it was only from Japan Open!

Yep, there was an unclear post on the Lepisto thread saying "she withdrew", though the poster seems to have clarified.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Okay, tossing out some thoughts.

1. Russian Baby Brigade
Okay, can someone briefly tell me (a)which Russians will be competing on the senior and junior circuits this season and (b) which ones will be old enough for Sochi? Because it took me a good year to learn how to spell Savchenko/Szolkowy and I'm gathering I'm gonna need some practice for this group of talented girls. I'm inclined to avoid expectations as young + growth = issues and I have no idea who's who at this point.

2. Kim and Rochette... to continue?
Okay - as soon as they leave, the level of skating in their discipline/nation will decline and it'll be unlikely to improve for a while; Kim's such a unique talent and I gather that the way Canada programs ladies' skating has an adverse effect on development. So both federations have a vested reason to see their top talent continue. But will they?

In many respects, they both had two similar seasons. Both won both GP events in the 2008/09 season, had disappointing results at the GPF, only to get their best results at 4CC and Worlds. Both struggled with pressure during the 2009/10 GP season and went on to triumph at the Olympics. Rochette withdrew from worlds (understandably) and Kim, thanks to her fiduciary obligations, probably should have (of course, disappointing Kim is still ahead of most of this field, and it's not like Worlds 2010 was a great event).

I think both are done, though for different reasons. Both will be adversely affected by the new rules (as I understand them). Rochette, who skates cleanly without edge or UR calls doesn't benefit from the new tiered system of calling URs (and it's zero sum time - anything that directly helps someone else while not helping you hurts you). It's a little late for Rochette to start seriously incorporating 3-3s into her programs AND skipping the GP series means whatever programs she does have will likely have rust on them. Which won't hurt at Nationals (given Phaneuf's inconsistency and the relative weakness of the Canadian ladies, Rochette's not dropping below 2nd) but would be an issue on the international stage (we saw this last season in ice dance and the men). Kim, on the other hand, has a rock solid 3-3 and the PCS to match. But given all the recent drama, will she really want to continue? Again, what hurts her here is the lessening of importance on levels vis-a-vis the spiral sequence along with the shift in how URs are judged - that helps others and hurts her.

I don't see Rochette ever becoming a world champion at this point - the next generation is hungry and there are a lot of them, and I really wonder about Kim's motivation (yes, reports of her still doing the 3-3 notwithstanding - a year without competition is not the best way to stay hungry).

3.... whither Phaneuf?
So, does Phaneuf take her strong, clean skate at worlds and run with it, or was that a one off? And more importantly, does it matter? In a well-skated worlds, I think her performance would've been enough for top ten (maintaining two spots for Canada), but this wasn't a well-skated worlds (five skaters saw at least a six-place difference between their short and long programs - Kim, Nagasu, Ando, Gedevanishivili and Suzuki). But Phaneuf has no flip, no 3-3 and an iffy lutz. Which way does she go?

4. And what of Europe?
1999-2004 saw only three nations on the podium: USA, Japan and Russia. The following six years saw that number more than double (the aforementioned three, Italy, Canada, Finland and S. Korea). On the one hand, yay! More competition. On the other hand, world juniors? The aforementioned three. Ditto 2009. Ditto 2008. Ditto 2007 (except the USA hogs all three spots in 07 and 08). Now I don't really see much on the horizon for Canada or Italy. Are there any other countries in Europe that have skaters that could podium at Worlds in the near future, or even at a GP event, or will we revert back to early-aughts form.

 

[Lucky Star]

1. Russian Baby Brigade
Okay, can someone briefly tell me (a)which Russians will be competing on the senior and junior circuits this season and (b) which ones will be old enough for Sochi? Because it took me a good year to learn how to spell Savchenko/Szolkowy and I'm gathering I'm gonna need some practice for this group of talented girls. I'm inclined to avoid expectations as young + growth = issues and I have no idea who's who at this point.

Seniors: Leonova, Makarova, Biryukova
Juniors: Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, Shelepen, Agafonova, Ovcharova, Gosviani, Sheveleva, Afanasieva, Zaseeva and Korobeinikova; all of them will be old enough for Sochi.
Also Lipnitskaya and Medvedeva, too young even for juniors now, but will be old enough for Sochi

 

[Olympia]

(off topic: It took me a long time to learn how to spell Savchenko/Szolkowy, too! I certainly hope they'll stay around so I can keep practicing that hard-earned skill.)

Pogue, this isn't the first time I've heard that Canada goes about developing its ladies' skating in a less-than-beneficial way. Could someone explain that to me? They certainly don't seem to have any problem with men's or ice dancing! Since the days of Toller Cranston in men, and for the last decade at least in ice dance, they've been dominant and exciting in both those disciplines, and they've had some pretty splendid pairs teams as well. How is the approach different in ladies' skating there?

 

[miki88]

Is it a little early to speculate about Sochi? A lot of things can happen in four years and we probably won't be sure of the contenders until a year or so before the next Olympics.

 

[seniorita]

Olympia, I cant spell S/S to save my life, it is of the things my brain refuses to download.
I never learnt also Zamolodchikova in my life (i google it now)

Okay, tossing out some thoughts.

1. Russian Baby Brigade
Okay, can someone briefly tell me (a)which Russians will be competing on the senior and junior circuits this season and (b) which ones will be old enough for Sochi? Because it took me a good year to learn how to spell Savchenko/Szolkowy and I'm gathering I'm gonna need some practice for this group of talented girls. I'm inclined to avoid expectations as young + growth = issues and I have no idea who's who at this point.

From C T T and oleada in fsu, they made a list of which girls are eligible which season.

----Junior Eligible 09/10----
Polina Shelepen
Polina Agafanova
Anna Ovcharova
Rosa Sheleva
Kristina Zaseeva
Polina Korobeinikova

----Junior Eligible 10/11----
Liza Tuktamysheva
Adelina Sotnikova
Alexandra Deeva
Nikol Gosviani

----Junior Eligible 11/12----
Julia Lipnitskaya
Maria Stavitskaya
Daria Medvedeva

----Junior Eligible 12/13----
Elena Radionova
Alsu Kaumova

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Is it a little early to speculate about Sochi? A lot of things can happen in four years and we probably won't be sure of the contenders until a year or so before the next Olympics.

Oh, probably. However, don't underestimate how long it'll take me to learn the spelling.

 

[miki88]

Oh, probably. However, don't underestimate how long it'll take me to learn the spelling.

We should get nicknames for all the Russian juniors. It's too early to tell but I am already salivating at the prospect of a Adelina-Liza rivalry. It will be like a female version of the Plushy-Yags rivalry. In other words, epic!

 

[seniorita]

oh i watched many baby russian videos this week to figure out the names

Lipnitskaya
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Qa5jsV9RTM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pOyZc7Wur8
never mind the jumps she was a little off that day, her flexibility wow!

Elisaveta
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-eVdI6FA4Q Lp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY64JXdA8mQ Sp

from test skate of Russian skaters a few days ago, I like her little twizzles

this is Polina Korobeinikova, the most elegant of all! I dont know, does she have an assignment?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQlxypMdmt4

And this is wonderkid Radionova but i think she wont be eligible for Olympics, she is 11, already won russian cup last week
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAXPPmPSmQ4


and this is my fav Mishin's baby skater, she is like 10 and has all triples
Ogoreltseva
SP http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQd3uLMzjxw
Ex http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWdSrxcB8cc

 

[Layfan]

oh i watched many baby russian videos this week to figure out the names

Lipnitskaya
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Qa5jsV9RTM
never mind the jumps she was a little off that day, her flexibility wow!

Elisaveta
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-eVdI6FA4Q Lp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY64JXdA8mQ Sp

from test skate of Russian skaters a few days ago, I like her little twizzles

this is Polina Korobeinikova, the most elegant of all! I dont know, does she have an assignment?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQlxypMdmt4

And this is wonderkid Radionova but i think she wont be eligible for Olympics, she is 11, already won russian cup last week
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAXPPmPSmQ4


and this is my fav Mishin's baby skater, she is like 10 and has all triples

Ogoreltseva
SP http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQd3uLMzjxw
Ex http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWdSrxcB8cc

I really had no idea Russia had so much potential in the pipeline. So exciting. I can't believe Radionava's flair and musicality at just 11!

Anyway, thanks for sharing all this.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Elena Radionova is ridiculously, unbelievably good for an 11 year old. Both the technique and the comfort level on the ice. Whoah. She won't be able to compete in Sochi, though.

 

[Blades of Passion]

BTW, why is Elena Leonova doing 2 Triple Flips in her SP?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrlIfa4mxZ4

I think she also attempted 3 Flips in the LP.

I guess with the way the rules are written you can just tell judges you're doing a Lutz and if you do a Flip they'll count it as a Lutz with a wrong edge takeoff? Dumb.

 

[bekalc]

Elena Radionova is ridiculously, unbelievably good for an 11 year old. Both the technique and the comfort level on the ice. Whoah. She won't be able to compete in Sochi, though.

Yeah its an embarrassment of riches for Russia right now. :lol: They may very well be the new Japan but we will have to see.

 

[Lucky Star]

BTW, why is Elena Leonova doing 2 Triple Flips in her SP?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrlIfa4mxZ4

I think she also attempted 3 Flips in the LP.

I guess with the way the rules are written you can just tell judges you're doing a Lutz and if you do a Flip they'll count it as a Lutz with a wrong edge takeoff? Dumb.

The first jump in the SP and FS is a lutz. She changed the entrance and now the jump is much more consistent. And it looks like a clear outside edge now

 

[Ellen]

Yeah its an embarrassment of riches for Russia right now. :lol: They may very well be the new Japan but we will have to see.

Yes, and maybe Russia will win Olympic Gold in ladies first time in history some day
Cannot wait when these young ladies will be able to compete at senior level. God forbid they have any injuries or other troubles.

 

[goldenpleasures]

Cannot wait when these young ladies will be able to compete at senior level. God forbid they have any injuries or other troubles.

That would be a great shame, but there are just so many of them it seems reasonable to assume that at least some will make it through the senior ranks relatively unscathed.

 

[silverlake22]

BTW, why is Elena Leonova doing 2 Triple Flips in her SP?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrlIfa4mxZ4

I think she also attempted 3 Flips in the LP.

I guess with the way the rules are written you can just tell judges you're doing a Lutz and if you do a Flip they'll count it as a Lutz with a wrong edge takeoff? Dumb.

You actually see a lot of skaters do that. Like Mao, her 3f looks like a lutz that takes off the inside edge the way she sets it up. And Anna O, her 3lz looks like a 3f that takes off the outside edge the way she sets it up.

 

[Blades of Passion]

The first jump in the SP and FS is a lutz. She changed the entrance and now the jump is much more consistent. And it looks like a clear outside edge now

It doesn't look like a clear outside edge at all. It's a clear inside edge. More important, she does a mohawk into the jump. That's a Flip. This can't pass as a Lutz. ISU needs to get better definitions of "Flip" and "Lutz" in the rulebook because it's too much of a gray area right now. The most distinctive quality between the two jumps is not the edge, it's the way the momentum of the body is moving going into the jump.

You actually see a lot of skaters do that. Like Mao, her 3f looks like a lutz that takes off the inside edge the way she sets it up. And Anna O, her 3lz looks like a 3f that takes off the outside edge the way she sets it up.

I don't find this to be accurate. Mao Asada's 3F does not look like a setup for a lutz. She does a mohawk into the jump; there's no back glide and shift of the body in the opposing direction, which would make it a lutz. Asada may wobble a bit onto the outside edge before getting onto the inside edge, but that doesn't make the jump look like a lutz. It's just questionable technique.