It looks as if Joannie Rochette is going to have a tough time making it to the GPF. Winning silver at Skate Canada, she scored 158.3, which doesn't begin to compete with Mao's 176.6 and Shizuka's 173.6 from Cup of China, and is well behind Elena Sokolova's 163.02 at Skate America. Then there's Sasha, who seems to ace her GP events (she got 122 points for her FS at Campbell's).
Shizuka is on the bubble, too. She needs to finish 2nd at TEB to make the final and that will be tough with Mao and Sasha in this event.
Yeah, this is one tough field. At least five or six that could medal. My hopes are with Joannie Rochette - I'd love to see her in the Grand Prix final. I think she certainly CAN skate well enough to be there. Rather unfortunate if some of these girls miss out because of the tough field while some possibly lesser skaters make it due to easier comps. Oh well, Go Joannie!
Joannie already has 9 points. If she does no better than 4th place she will have a total of 14 points which I believe she will make the Finals. A third place will definitely get her into the Finals. A first place will scare the h--l out of everyone.
Alissa is in with 21 points
Irina will win CoR with 24 points
Elena Sokolova should be no worse than 6th at TEB and is in with at least 15 points
Asada will medal at TEB and be in with at least 16 points
That leaves two empty spots
Miki Ando will most likely medal at CoR and NHK for a minimum of 16 points
That leaves just one available slot
By my calculations, Rochette can make the final only if:
- She finishes no lower than 4th at TEB
- Arakawa finishes 3rd or lower at TEB
- Onda doesn't finish higher than 3rd at CoR
- Liashenko (5) and Nakano (7) finish no higher than 3rd at NHK