Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

[R.D.]

Well, if it was a contest for who could complete a couple of 3X3's, Kimmie would have won. Unfortunately for Kimmie, it was a contest including 2 different programs with jumps + other stuff. (I'm jazzing you here..)

Kimmie missed her combo in the SP, and had a fall in the LP on a singled Axel. Those two things alone cost her a lot of points. Her levels and execution of spins and spirals and FW IMO are nowhere near Sasha (yet). If you take a look at the score sheets the point spread is easily justified IMO.

DG

I thought so. But my question was more of an open-ended one. It originated from this comment:

And you can bet that if Michelle throws out there two perfect programs while Irina does 1 or 2 mistakes, you can ber your bootie that the USFSA will file a complaint and maybe even win it.

and I responded with, depends on what level MK skates at. If MK is not at Irina's level (which I wouldn't think so at this point), there's not much she can do to catch up. So I ask, where's the real justification for this? I tried to use the analogy of Kimmie vs. Cohen- Kimmie doing more difficult jumps but not having the overall package to compete with a skater like Cohen. The real "point behind the question" was, could one make an argument that Kimmie should have won instead of Sasha? Judging by what you said, I suppose not.

 

[cianni]

Rd

It might come down to questioning if Irina skated at the level she is being marked for. Not too sure there wouldnt be a possible reverse. Irina is being given inflated marks and looking real close at her skating and the marks could present an interesting scene. They may win. Irina is skating what is being given high levels with no real scrutiny and in the case stated above could well change. Any skater who skates a perfect program is going to question a flawed program and may well file a complaint. Might be good for the sport.

 

[mzheng]

It might come down to questioning if Irina skated at the level she is being marked for. Not too sure there wouldnt be a possible reverse. Irina is being given inflated marks and looking real close at her skating and the marks could present an interesting scene. They may win. Irina is skating what is being given high levels with no real scrutiny and in the case stated above could well change. Any skater who skates a perfect program is going to question a flawed program and may well file a complaint. Might be good for the sport.

Yeah. Good for the sport, but at the expanse of skaters. But such is a life....I'm wondering if that's the 'noise' TT was original refered to that Kwan would make this season. it all depends on if Kwan can skate cleanly....I know TT has had her own opinions on NJS.

 

[nymkfan51]

I'll tell you what ... if either Sasha or Michelle skate 2 perfect programs and match up level-wise with jump content and the other elements, and then lose to a flawed Irina on the PCS ... you just watch the fireworks. Anyone who thinks the usfsa will sit back quietly is sadly mistaken.

 

[R.D.]

I sure hope they'd do something about it!

 

[Mathman]

What could they do?

 

[slutskayafan21]

I thought Elvis was a very close 2nd to Kulik in the short. He skated with such speed, power and presence. I'm not particularly a Stojko fan but that performance is one on my all time favourites for a men's short program.

Eldredge would never have been placed 3rd in the short in Nagano with a clean performance, if he were the reigning World Champion, there is no way. So yes if Kulik was placed over Stojko anyway Stojko would have been only 3rd in the short for sure had Eldredge landed the 2nd triple axel at the 97 Worlds, or even if the 97 GP final had not been in Canada and Stojko not had a long streak of beating Eldredge going into those Olympics. Thus even if Eldredge still bombed the long, Candelero would have passed Stojko for the silver overall after beating him in the long, since he would have been only 2 places behind after the short, the permitted range to automaticaly pass somebody by beating them in the long.

 

[CantSpin]

Kwan/OGM?

By basically skating the exact same program year after year with different music?

I don't get this. Why is it ONLY Kwan who supposedly skates to the "same" programs year after year? :disagree: I don't see a huge difference in Irina's choreography year after year (except for the head in hands and hair-tearing poses, which thankfully she hasn't repeated this year), Plushenko's or many others. Is it because Michelle's been on top for so long that more attention is paid to her than to others? Only this year, it seems to me that ALL the women are skating the same program as each other - catchfoots all over the place, quasi-Biellmans everywhere.....almost no difference at all. As for Kwan having the "same" programs - Tarasova created both programs this year. From what I saw at Marshalls, her Totentanz looked completely different to her prior short programs. It remains to be seen whether she'll water them down again (I hope not), but I suspect she will be monitored closely by the USFSA to make sure the content is there and her levels will be high enough. I'm picturing TT throwing a Russian fit if Michelle DARES to dilute her choreography!

Apart from that, what else is Kwan expected to do so as not to skate the "same" program? Invent new jumps? I'm trying to figure out what jump is missing from toeloop, flip, salchow, loop, lutz and axel......how DARE she only try those six (except for the loop, which she left out last season, but then again, others have left that one out this year as well!) I concede that her spins are not as creative as those of other skaters, but as nobody except a few insiders have seen her long program this year, we have no way of knowing what she's planning in that area.

 

[nymkfan51]

I don't know exactly what they would do MM, but the press would be off and running with it ... and they could create a whole lot of problems. Just think SLC ... and that wasn't even American skaters who got screwed.
I actually think it won't happen though, because as much as I don't like Speedy, I think he's smart enough to know that he doesn't need a scenario such as that on his hands. Plus, by that time the Russians are likely to have 3 gold medals already, and that will have people looking that much more closely at the Ladies event. So I actually think Irina will have to be "spot-on" to win.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I don't know exactly what they would do MM, but the press would be off and running with it ... and they could create a whole lot of problems. Just think SLC ... and that wasn't even American skaters who got screwed.
I actually think it won't happen though, because as much as I don't like Speedy, I think he's smart enough to know that he doesn't need a scenario such as that on his hands. Plus, by that time the Russians are likely to have 3 gold medals already, and that will have people looking that much more closely at the Ladies event. So I actually think Irina will have to be "spot-on" to win.

Dont be so sure Russia will have all 3 golds by then. A Chinese pair could upet the apple cart in Paris, and Navka/Kostomarov have 2 or 3 teams trying to take the gold from them after their wobbly Europeans win. There also could be just as many people global-wise actually rooting for this historic 4-gold sweep as hoping against it, keep in mind I said global-wise, not North American only views which many times North Americans seem to mistake as globaly held views.

I would be shocked if Irina did a safe but clean skate in the short and long in Turin if she lost. The only way she would is if one of the other women skated a sensational performance with a triple-triple combo in the long, and I could not see Kwan or Cohen doing a triple-triple in the long or anything that would blow Irina away right away right now, which is the only way one would beat her. If Kostner or Ando did they would lose it in the PCS scores anyway. Arakawa would either not have it ratified or have some other triple not ratified because of cheating.

 

[Mathman]

I agree with Nymkfan that the timing of the events, with the ladies going last, could put an extra burden on Irina to skate well. "Anything can happen," but the smart money says that Russia will have three golds going into the finale. 50% of the ISU's budget comes from the United States (it was much more than that before they lost their $20,000,000 contract with ABC television).

I could easily see Speedy saying, OK, let's throw the U.S. a bone.

MM

 

[SkateFan4Life]

everyone who posts makes a prediction on who will win. They are not afraid to be wrong. You play it safe by not predicting anyone. It's ok.

Joe

I'm still picking Irina Slutskaya to win, provided that she's not injuried or sick.
As for Michelle Kwan, she's a longshot at best. I would not be surprised if she doesn't win a medal. I think she will skate well, but she may not be competitive against the top women.

 

[flowjo35]

I'm still picking Irina Slutskaya to win, provided that she's not injuried or sick.
As for Michelle Kwan, she's a longshot at best. I would not be surprised if she doesn't win a medal. I think she will skate well, but she may not be competitive against the top women.

None of the "top ladies" have been blowing away the field except Irina this season. I think its safe to say the Irina will medal, but there are several ladies that can get the other two medals including Michelle if she is ready to roll. I don't count anyone out, when you do that's when they prove you wrong.

 

[R.D.]

I don't count anyone out, when you do that's when they prove you wrong.

yeah...there's so much in that statement right there...

 

[kyla2]

Imo

I expect Irina to have the best chances of winning the OGM, but to say Sasha or Michelle won't do a triple-triple is dead wrong. They may well try a triple-triple knowing that they will have to have it to beat Irina. Nothing should be taken for granted during an Olympic competition.

 

[R.D.]

MK- it's possible. Irina may even do one. But Sasha? I seriously doubt it. She doesn't seem like she can do it anyway.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

MM - Baloney with the CoP. Aside from the hometown favorite advantage, the number of judges with cultural ties, I also believe that the Order of Skate has some influence.

And with an excellent Field in both Ladies and Men the first to skate is at a disadvantage.

IMO, Michelle will do her best skating last or near last.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

I expect Irina to have the best chances of winning the OGM, but to say Sasha or Michelle won't do a triple-triple is dead wrong. They may well try a triple-triple knowing that they will have to have it to beat Irina. Nothing should be taken for granted during an Olympic competition.

Michelle hasnt done a triple-triple in 4 years in competition, or even tried one. Good luck to her pulling out of the bag after her injury layoff. Anyway if she did the triple toe-triple toe(lets face it if she somehow did one, it would definitely be this)she would have to insert the triple loop in her program, since she could not repeat 3 triples to get to 7 triples, and the triple loop seems a jump she wants to avoid of late for some reason. If she only did 6 triples it would defeat the purpose of a triple-triple under the new scoring system anyway.

As for Sasha doing a triple-triple right now, I will be just as surprised.
She used to do a triple lutz-triple toe, why she abandoned it the last few years, and from what I aware of does not even practice it anymore, is beyond me.

Irina is more likely to attempt one than either American girl, but probably only if she sense she needs it. If she has a good lead after the short, or if doesnt but skates after Arakawa, Irina, Sasha, or whichever 1 or 2 or within close range after the short, and those havent done one, she will leave it out I predict.

 

[mzheng]

I'll tell you what ... if either Sasha or Michelle skate 2 perfect programs and match up level-wise with jump content and the other elements, and then lose to a flawed Irina on the PCS ... you just watch the fireworks. Anyone who thinks the usfsa will sit back quietly is sadly mistaken.

LOL, in noway this will happen. That will be 3 skaters all skate clean SP and LP in Olymics?

 

[Mathman]

Irina is more likely to attempt one than either American girl, but probably only if she sense she needs it. If she has a good lead after the short, or if doesnt but skates after Arakawa, Irina, Sasha, or whichever 1 or 2 or within close range after the short, and those havent done one, she will leave it out I predict.

Maybe, but that's "skating not to lose." I think Irina learned her lesson about that strategy in 2002. She knew Michelle had messed up, so all she had to do was skate conservatively and try not to fall down. Well, she didn't fall down, quite, but she let Sarah Hughes (of all people!) skate away with her medal.

Irina needs to go out there and skate her program, no matter what the other skaters do or don't do.

MM