Olympic Team Competition Predictions
- Thread starter sunnystars
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- Jul 31, 2014
I know it won't happen. But i would love to see the USA put their #2 and #3 Ice Dance teams in the team event and save the #1 team (looking like the Shibs) for the individual event and a decent shot at a medal there. How cool would it be for USA to come away with three Ice Dance teams with Olympic medals? I actually think our top three teams could probably pull it off. C/B and H/D I think are more than strong enough to handle the team comp on their own and still leave USA in strong medal contention. If the podium at worlds is the same as the podium at GPF, the Shibs should have a solid shot at an individual medal. I think USFSA should go for it.
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- Mar 23, 2014
I agree with this in spirit, but it seems to be the case that only the Shibs would be able to beat B/S (assuming they skate for Russia). Then again, US probably won't challenge Russia for silver or gold in the team event anyway sooo.....
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- Feb 19, 2015
IKRThese predictions are
Athletes are injured all the time, we don't know if the best of the best are even going to the olympics :confused2:
Im afraid to make any b/c as a pessimist I expect an injury to happen just before the comp:sad46:
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- Jul 31, 2014
Hey, two team bronzes and an individual bronze would be fine by me!
I do agree that if things are shaping up for USA to have a stronger shot at a medal above bronze that should be looked at. But if we are likely looking at a bronze anyway. Well I think the depth of USFSA's ice dancers should be celebrated and this would be a great way to do it! Plus I have a major soft spot for H/D at this point. They have been in the shadows so long, I actually would love to see them get the shot at the team event.
Gotta be honest, I don't really buy that these elite athletes who spend their whole lives training can't handle two extra programs in the space of a few days. Don't they do run-throughs every day at home? Surely that's much tougher. And it's not like they don't have days off in between either.
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- Mar 23, 2014
I think they can handle them physically, but there's a mental impact. Most skaters probably want to save their "Olympic moment" for the individual events, rather than skate at 110% in the team event and underwhelm in the individual. D/W and V/M saved their best performances for the individual event, for example. Hanyu had his magical SP during the individual (his team SP was clean, but not on the level of the individual) Yulia Lipnitskaya had her Olympic moment in the team event, and we saw how that turned out for her in the individual.
If you only skate one program (or no programs at all), then you don't really need to worry about it as much. Or with one program, you can gain momentum without having your Olympic moment too soon (I/K did this successfully).
You don't want to send an individual OGM hopeful out there with the pressure to skate two flawless team programs unless that OGM hopeful is in ice dance where falls/inconsistency are far less likely and where placements tend to be predictable. And you want that ice dance OGM hopeful to still save their best for the individual.
Based on memory alone, no individual OGM hopeful went out and skated 2 team programs except for Yulia and in ice dance.
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If it were a matter of physical conditioning only ... but it isn't. The mental challenge is much more unpredictable. It's doing one's best in the moment when the stakes are the highest, when it's just you with all the world's excitement and expectations looking on. Then there's also that we all hope for a magical moment, so they're going for an emotional resonance or connection of some kind. The truly memorable performances have much more than technical precision going for them.
On the practical side, Kori Ade said one of the things she and Jason learned from Sochi was what the team competition adds to the event. These elite athletes prepare for two performances at every competition; that's what they expect and aim for. It must be really tricky to throw an extra one or two real performances in. That wouldn't be the case, if all anyone expected were the run-throughs like they do in practice every day.
Even singing a solo in a community concert or playing in a piano recital is different from doing it in rehearsal. In a good way, but it becomes more complicated.
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- Dec 18, 2014
Perhaps you should reconsider them. The data is certainly available! (And people may feel free to copy and mess with mine).
As I said at the top, it just didn't occur to me until the work was already done.
There are really so many factors to consider.
I'm not quite sure if team must use 2 substitutions, or can use only one, or no substitution at all. But if Team Competition is going to happen right now, with best season scores which includes best possible 2 alternatives for 2 of four disciplines, it would be:
Short:
1. CAN 36
2. RUS 33
3. USA 28
4. JPN 25
5. FRA 23
6. CHN 22
7. ITA 19
8. GER 14
9. KOR 10
10. CZE 10
Free:
1. RUS 34
2. USA 34
3. CAN 32
4. JPN 31
5. FRA 29
TOTAL:
1. CAN 68
2. RUS 67
3. USA 62
4. JPN 56
5. FRA 52
So, for now, i think USA is locked for bronze (even if they not use their best team). CAN is slightly ahead of RUS, but it would be very though fight for the gold.
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After Canadian Nats, I'm sort of thinking Nicolas Nadeau may be Canada's best bet for that second spot, which might sound weird since he finished fourth to both Nam and Kevin. But, he's barely competed this year because of a sprained ankle at the beginning of the season and he just landed a ratified quad loop (yes with -ve GOE, but it was his first attempt in comp IIRC). And he finished only two points back of Nam with a singled triple combo in the SP which cost him a lot of points, which isn't something that happens very often.
He has a quad toe and a quad loop now and has trained a quad lutz (yes I know it doesn't mean anything until he tries it in comp, but again, we at least know he can do it pretty well). And he's an incredible performer. I think he could be a nice solid second for the team comp.
eta: just to be clear I mean second in terms of Canada not everyone. No one call me crazy
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Man, I would think it'd be ideal to have Kaetlyn do the SP and Gabby the FS. Kaetlyn is great with SPs and struggles with LPs, Gabby seems more reliable for the LP imo.
Subbing out Chan is such an awful idea and could cost Canada the gold, but it'll probably happen. No Canadian man is close to him. In every other discipline we at least have skaters in the same stratosphere as the top ranked skater.
Patrick was really adamant in Sochi about not wanting to skate twice.
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It's about the schedule too. In Sochi pairs and Mens happened first and then ladies and ice dance were later and I believe it's expected to be the same. So it makes sense that the men and pairs would sub out.
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yes but that may have changed... maybe this time around he will want to invest more into the team event than the singles event... it all depends about what is at stake... he is no longer the world champion and top favourite... also, I could totally see Patrick secure the Sp for Canada and then, when only 5 teams remain for the final, a guy like Nic could be perfectly fine, not needing to beat 9 guys but only 4... or at least stay close...
I also believe that Nic will be Canada's number 2 next year. A couple pops less or even just trying his 4T in the LP which he didn't do would have sealsed the deal for him for the podium... I think he has the full package to evolve quickly towards the top 10 in the world.. He doesn't skate juniorish at all... has good skating skills and great solid jumps.
I also believe that Nic will be Canada's number 2 next year. A couple pops less or even just trying his 4T in the LP which he didn't do would have sealsed the deal for him for the podium... I think he has the full package to evolve quickly towards the top 10 in the world.. He doesn't skate juniorish at all... has good skating skills and great solid jumps.
After France's breakthrough bronze in pairs by James/Cipres, and a fifth place by Laurine Leclavier, and a 9th place PB showing by Chafik Besseghier, and keeping in mind Papadakis/Cizeron's strength in ice dance....
Well, I'm ready to reconsider France's potential in the team event....
Any one else wish to weigh in?
Well, I'm ready to reconsider France's potential in the team event....
Any one else wish to weigh in?
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- Jun 1, 2014
I'm excited about the potential Team France showed at Euros! That said, I don't think they'll quite manage to challenge for a medal in the team event. We'll see how things shake out after Helsinki, but I think P/C may still be the only reliable top-tier skaters. James/Cipres did great at Euros, but Worlds/Olympics would additionally put them up against the Chinese pairs machine, plus one or two excellent teams from Canada (sorry, I'm not enough of a patriot to pretend the US has any shot in pairs
). Same with Laurine - barring disasters, I can't see her surpassing the representatives of Canada, US, Russia, Italy, or Japan.What strikes me most is that France now has a very good shot of making it into the final 6 at the team event.....
And unlike some of the other contenders, it has 3 of 4 disciplines in which it is quite competitive...and mens is looking stronger than I'd expected too. The team event is about doing well across the board...
Would love to see the post-Europeans updated seeding from the stats analysis [even if it would need to be updated after 4CCs]....
Editing to add....looking at the ISU rankings that were updated this evening to reflect the results of Europeans...but the way the season's world rankings work, the skaters from outside Europe are all pushed down by as they do not have 4CCs scores yet....
So a post-4CC recalculation is likely needed unless we want to work off PBs or SBs
And unlike some of the other contenders, it has 3 of 4 disciplines in which it is quite competitive...and mens is looking stronger than I'd expected too. The team event is about doing well across the board...
Would love to see the post-Europeans updated seeding from the stats analysis [even if it would need to be updated after 4CCs]....
Editing to add....looking at the ISU rankings that were updated this evening to reflect the results of Europeans...but the way the season's world rankings work, the skaters from outside Europe are all pushed down by as they do not have 4CCs scores yet....
So a post-4CC recalculation is likely needed unless we want to work off PBs or SBs
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france was always on my radar.. .but i am a fan of J/C... and I believe in them a bit too much maybe
i thought Mae would be the girl to shine...
BTW it's top 5 for finals if i recall
Thanks for the catch! Quite right, it's 10 teams for the SP, and 5 for the final....
Earlier in the thread, France came up seeded as 6th, but now...I wonder if it's not more like 4th....but it seems the number crunching will best be one after 4CC.
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china and italy... the other contenders... with kostner back... italy is also getting there...
