Olympic Team Competition Predictions

[TGee]

china and italy... the other contenders... with kostner back... italy is also getting there...

Kostner makes a huge difference for Italy.... but I don't see the same potential in pairs, and they are further back in mens...So, my instinct is that Italy is behind France now...

On the other hand, with LI Zijun moving to train with Team Mishin in Moscow, China may soon be competitive in women's singles to the degree that they are ahead of France. Certainly, they are individual event podium contenders in pairs and mens singles, but they are so far back in ice dance that their SP ranking in that will seed them behind France as well.

 

[4everchan]

Kostner makes a huge difference for Italy.... but I don't see the same potential in pairs, and they are further back in mens...So, my instinct is that Italy is behind France now...

On the other han, with LI Zijun moving to train with Team Mishin in Moscow, China may soon be competitive in women's singles to the degree that they are ahead of France. Certainly, they are individual event podium contenders in pairs and mens singles, but they are so far back in ice dance that their SP ranking in that will seed them behind France as well.

yup... that's what and how it is... no other country right now can compete with the top 3, even the top 6..

what makes it better for italy is that once all the extra chinese, canadian and russian pairs removed, their top pair isn't bad

 

[lovaticcanada]

Well, I will update this after 4CC/WJC/WC but for those that are interested. Here are the results after the European Championships. Team Event Qualification.

However, its subject to a lot of movement when (USA, Canada, China, Japan and possibly one of Australia/Korea) join.

 

[4everchan]

Well, I will update this after 4CC/WJC/WC but for those that are interested. Here are the results after the European Championships. Team Event Qualification.

However, its subject to a lot of movement when (USA, Canada, China, Japan and possibly one of Australia/Korea) join.

so cool to see this!!! thanks

 

[karne]

Well, I will update this after 4CC/WJC/WC but for those that are interested. Here are the results after the European Championships. Team Event Qualification.

However, its subject to a lot of movement when (USA, Canada, China, Japan and possibly one of Australia/Korea) join.

GO TEAM AUSTRALIA! GO TEAM AUSTRALIA! KICK ALL OF THE BACKSIDE! GO GO GO GO GO GO GO!

*breaks out green and gold pompoms*

 

[Skater Boy]

I love Australia but how many teams go to the Olymics. Somehow Australia wouldn't seem a logical choice - are they even a sure thing in any event for top ten. Even top 15?

 

[Weathergal]

Kostner makes a huge difference for Italy.... but I don't see the same potential in pairs, and they are further back in mens...So, my instinct is that Italy is behind France now...

On the other hand, with LI Zijun moving to train with Team Mishin in Moscow, China may soon be competitive in women's singles to the degree that they are ahead of France. Certainly, they are individual event podium contenders in pairs and mens singles, but they are so far back in ice dance that their SP ranking in that will seed them behind France as well.

yup... that's what and how it is... no other country right now can compete with the top 3, even the top 6..

what makes it better for italy is that once all the extra chinese, canadian and russian pairs removed, their top pair isn't bad

If this were last season, Italy would have been looking better for Men's--Ivan Righini was on the rise. Unfortunately he continues to struggle this season. I enjoy his skating though.

At this point, though hard to imagine top three not Canada, Russia, US (I just alphabetized--not predicting the order at this point LOL!). But I agree that France and China could really make things interesting.

 

[SnowWhite]

I love Australia but how many teams go to the Olymics. Somehow Australia wouldn't seem a logical choice - are they even a sure thing in any event for top ten. Even top 15?

In Sochi there were ten teams in the team event. As far as I know it will be the same this time. You've got the obvious ones in Canada, Russia, the US, France, China, Italy, and Japan who will be there for sure. Probably Germany too. So that would leave two spots. Last time it was Great Britain and the Ukraine, and like Karne has said earlier, Australia was the first reserve, so they are definitely in the mix at the very least.

 

[lovaticcanada]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that you have to get points in at least 3 out of the 4 events to qualify. For example, some countries such as Spain (with Javier Fernandez), even though he may score a lot of points by placing in the top at worlds/european championship, cannot be in the team event because they don't have ladies or pairs.

However, we will not have a clear understanding of which teams will be in that final spots until after worlds as the EU and 4CC gives out the same amount of points and the Men is deeper at 4CC, while the ladies field is deeper at the EC. Also points will have to come from worlds, and if a country cannot obtain points for worlds, then 4cc/euc/wjc points will count.

That said from EC, we can tell that Russia, France, Germany, Italy and Isreal are ahead of the pack. Once you add in Canada, Japan, China, USA, we have Australia (and South Korea is the only other team fielding teams in all disciplines at 4CC). It will most likely be between Isreal/Ukraine/Great Britain/Czech Republic/Australia for the final 2 spots (pending worlds/grand prix results).

 

[karne]

I love Australia but how many teams go to the Olymics. Somehow Australia wouldn't seem a logical choice - are they even a sure thing in any event for top ten. Even top 15?

You keep carrying on about that. THAT IS NOT HOW THIS WORKS.

However, we will not have a clear understanding of which teams will be in that final spots until after worlds as the EU and 4CC gives out the same amount of points and the Men is deeper at 4CC, while the ladies field is deeper at the EC. Also points will have to come from worlds, and if a country cannot obtain points for worlds, then 4cc/euc/wjc points will count.

No, we will not know until December, I think. They include the internationals at the start of the next season.

 

[lovaticcanada]

No, we will not know until December, I think. They include the internationals at the start of the next season.

You are right, however, the vast majority of the points will be earned at worlds. (1200 for 1st vs 800 for winning grand prix final - and the grand prix final slots are normally dominated by the same few countries - japan/usa/canada/russia/china), except (Italy - Kostner and Cappellini/Lanotte??, France - Papadakis/Cizeron, Germany - Savencho/Massot) are the only one not from those country who are almost guaranteed to qualify for the team event.

Besides, the individual grand prix events are worth at most 400 points for 1st, and down to 191 points for 8th. Thus, after worlds would be the first time we have an idea of the last 2-3 countries that will qualify, and we can speculate from there all summer.

 

[karne]

Besides, the individual grand prix events are worth at most 400 points for 1st, and down to 191 points for 8th. Thus, after worlds would be the first time we have an idea of the last 2-3 countries that will qualify, and we can speculate from there all summer.

You would be amazed - I'm pretty sure last time we missed out by only a hundred points or so.

 

[Hannah555]

You have a point that things may change but so far, I don't think Russia could shake up things this time. IMO, I feel like we know who will be skating in most of the their events other than the ladies who are likely to be the biggest point contributers no matter what. Volosozhar/Trankov are out because she's pregnant. Bobrova/Soloviev could be 4th place at best. If they decide to use Step/Bukin, they will only further pull their total score down. They don't have Plushy to resurrect unless they do some voodoo magic. Kolyada needs to wish for the stars to align to at least get 4th or 5th.

Russia has Tarasova/Morozov in pairs (gold in gran prix final / gold in europeans 2017)

Ladies - it's clear

Ice dance - Bobrova/Soloviev

Men - Kolyada/Kovtun (if they skate clear)

Chan was only 5th at Grand Prix last year, Osmond - only 4th. Duhamel/Redford - only 3rd.....

I think we just have to wait and see ))))

 

[Mango]

Russia has Tarasova/Morozov in pairs (gold in gran prix final / gold in europeans 2017)

Ladies - it's clear

Ice dance - Bobrova/Soloviev

Men - Kolyada/Kovtun (if they skate clear)

Chan was only 5th at Grand Prix last year, Osmond - only 4th. Duhamel/Redford - only 3rd.....

I think we just have to wait and see ))))

Please continue to count out Duhamel/Radford. They do best when they're being counted out! There's also another pair who may compete.

Chan is up and down. If he skates well you know he will beat both of those guys.

Osmond is also an unknown. Her FS this season haven't gone well but she did make GPF after all and ranked ahead of all but Medvedeva in the SP so....

 

[bobbob]

Obviously it is quite early, but I think we all agree it will be between Russia and Canada, with an outside chance by the US.

Mens Canada has Patrick, but if they don't put him on both programs they will be at a disadvantage. Russian male skaters have shown some signs of promise (kolyada, Kovtun) but have been rather inconsistent. US Has Nathan, plus a few other contenders (Jason, Vincent, Adam??). US > Canada > Russia

Ladies Canada has two skaters (Gabby and Kaetlyn) they can use, which is a good thing, though neither have proven to be consistent in the free skate. Russia obviously will be the strongest in ladies regardless of who they put up. US has Ashley Wagner plus a few younger skaters who are not as proven yet. Russia > Canada = United States

Pairs Canada has Duhamel/Radford and I/M, both will put up good scores. Russia has two really strong medal contenders, Tarasova/Morosov and Stolbova/Klimov. US obviously is the weakest, with SKK/K and D/F probably. Russia > Canada > US

Dance there probably won't be much team switching in this, and Virtue and Moir are in a class of their own as far as I'm concerned. Shibutanis for the US, Bobrova Soloviev for Russia, can't really go wrong with any of them but...Canada > US > Russia

SO overall, it will be close though Canada has a slight advantage right now.

 

[4everchan]

Russia has Tarasova/Morozov in pairs (gold in gran prix final / gold in europeans 2017)

Ladies - it's clear

Ice dance - Bobrova/Soloviev

Men - Kolyada/Kovtun (if they skate clear)

Chan was only 5th at Grand Prix last year, Osmond - only 4th. Duhamel/Redford - only 3rd.....

I think we just have to wait and see ))))

I love it when people take random data and make it say random things...

Like taking some of the worst competitions for some, and comparing them to some of the best competitions for others

Nobody is denying that Medvedeva is ahead in ladies and that Russia may opt to have her skate both programs.... Ladies competition is later anyways and she is young and fit... so sure... Russia wins both short and long... However, one never knows... maybe that pressure of the Olympics could get to her... and a gal like Kaetlyn who did well at the team event (underscored a tad in Sochi... wonder why) could get close if not even beat Med in the Short.... Canada will have to choose if they use two women here or not...

Ice Dance: Bobrova and Soloviev ranked 3rd in Euros.... There will be a Canadian and an American team ahead of them surely at the team event... so they would end up in 5th... Russia here though could send another dance team as clearly, The Russians cannot get lower than 5th in the SD and cannot really get higher than 5th in the FD if things are similar to this year... Canada is clearly ahead here with Virtue and Moir. France may not qualify for the last 5 teams... which may give an even bigger edge to Canada. USA will be interesting to watch with two very strong and almost even teams.

Men : the Russian men well... I am not even sure those will be the ones going to the games. Kolyada had the skates of his life at WC last year. This year, he has been adding content and struggling landing it... He has huge potential so I am thinking he will get to the games... Kovtun is hit and miss.... He can land two quads in a SP or just pop both... I wouldn't count on him at all for a team event if I were a National Coach... USA seems strong with Nathan now but of course, we don't know how Nathan will evolve. He has had one fully great event (US Nationals) + 1 great LP (GPF)... for me, that's not enough data to make a trend here... but of course, he is extremely strong. Don't forget that in the men's field the Chinese and Japanese men will have an effect. Boyang and Yuzu can also place ahead of some of the top ranking team's men. Canada : Patrick is always in the hunt. It seems like Nic Nadeau is developing to be a very strong contender too. We will see what team Canada opts to send and that will be a huge factor... But I wouldn't put Russia ahead of Canada at all... nor ahead of USA. When you write that Chan was only 5th at GPF, you forget to mention he had his worst skate ever with 3 falls, that he also WON his two prior outings beating Yuzu and Boyang among many others and finally, that the Russians were nowhere to be seen... so 5th at Grand Prix is actually better than not making it to Grand Prix. You also ignore the fact that there were 2 japanese men and 1 spanish man ahead of Patrick at GPF... One of the japanese man would be out at the team event and so would the Spaniard... so technically, Patrick would be 3rd if you consider the team event... behind Yuzu and Nathan...

Pairs... now you crack me up... again... choosing the worst competition of a team in 3 years to make your calls. D/R have been experimenting with the 3Ath this season and that led to some much needed adjustment after GPF. They skated a wonderfully strong SP at Nationals and their LP is recovering now... I wouldn't count them out... Leaving out some very important data here.... Like how will the Chinese pairs do... etc... they may not be a factor for the LP but they certainly will be for the SP.

The only thing i agree with your post is : we just have to wait and see... the rest is just smokes and mirrors IMHO

 

[Hannah555]

The only thing i agree with your post is : we just have to wait and see... the rest is just smokes and mirrors IMHO

Well that's exactly what I'm saying... We don't really know how canadian or russian team will deal with olympic games pressure so you can't really know if you should take only best scores or worse scores or average... How can anyone know for sure that D\R will skate clean for example unlike GP final? Or that M\T will skate clean next year?

Nothing is sure or promised... Especially when we don't know who will compete for each team )))

 

[4everchan]

Well that's exactly what I'm saying... We don't really know how canadian or russian team will deal with olympic games pressure so you can't really know if you should take only best scores or worse scores or average... How can anyone know for sure that D\R will skate clean for example unlike GP final? Or that M\T will skate clean next year?

Nothing is sure or promised... Especially when we don't know who will compete for each team )))

of course... but it's easier IMHO to trust D/R to skate well under pressure as they have done so winning two world titles, than a team who has not yet proven that they can deliver on every element in the big events....

 

[Skater Boy]

The battle is between USA, Canada and Russia for the medals imho. Russia might have the edge depending on consistency of their men/man. I think France, Italy and China or Japan will be the other final teams. I am not sure who else will qualify if there are 12 - maybe Australia, Spain, Czech Republic, Sweden, Germany.

 

[karne]

The battle is between USA, Canada and Russia for the medals imho. Russia might have the edge depending on consistency of their men/man. I think France, Italy and China or Japan will be the other final teams. I am not sure who else will qualify if there are 12 - maybe Australia, Spain, Czech Republic, Sweden, Germany.

There are only 10 and somehow I doubt Spain would rate. Pairs? Ice Dance? Ladies? Sweden? They have to actually have people qualified to the Olympics to have an entry in the team event.