The Current Depth of Skating by Nation

[Li'Kitsu]

I think that Kovtun will have the edge over Farris in PCS, Kovtun has more international recognition than Farris. And, regardless of his execution, he's been more constant this season than Farris (anyone remembers the disaster at NHK?), which will rise his PCS. That, in addition to his technical elements (it wouldn't be weird for a high TES to rise the PCS as well). Although I find Farris' skating much more pleasant to the eye (in general I enjoy the Americans' style more than the Russians), the TES is what is winning competitions now.

Of course, if Kovtun fails his quads it could be a whole different story. That's what I like about the men's field, it's very hard to predict.

Yes, I remember NHK pretty well. In Josh's favor though, he has made huge improvements and is on a massvie upwards swing. Kovtun kind of stayed the same or even ran out of gas a little (hence my gut feeling telling me Josh has a good chance of skating better than Kovtun at worlds).
I'd expect Josh to beat Kovtun in the PCS in the LP, as long as he manages to move up some ranks after the SP. I'm just not so sure about the SPs.

Kovtun has many weaknesses that the judges are quite aware of. Which his why his scores have mostly stagnated over the last 2 seasons.

I actually felt they did improve...? From a short look at his wiki page: the scores this season are very similar to last season. But I'm not sure if this really is because his scores have stagnated, or because he simply didn't skate that well (he mostly gets the job done regarding the jumps, but for his 3As for example, the percentage of jumps landed with +GOE is definitely lower. I'd have to look the exact number up though. He definitely needs to improve in getting his spin levels, he's losing major points there).
To be fair, and I say that as somebody who has zero interest in Kovtun or his skating, I think he did improve some of his weaknesses. he looks faster to me than last season. I remember I felt he was painfully slow sometimes, f.e. when going into the jumps, and right now I think his speed is okay. He also seems to try to skate to the music. From my personal view, he doesn't really get the job done, but IMO he seems to try to improve at least.
That said, I still think his PCS are inflated and all that yadda yadda. Just felt he got so much criticism regularely (from me too), that I wanted to say something nice.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Yes, I remember NHK pretty well. In Josh's favor though, he has made huge improvements and is on a massvie upwards swing. Kovtun kind of stayed the same or even ran out of gas a little (hence my gut feeling telling me Josh has a good chance of skating better than Kovtun at worlds).
I'd expect Josh to beat Kovtun in the PCS in the LP, as long as he manages to move up some ranks after the SP. I'm just not so sure about the SPs.



I actually felt they did improve...? From a short look at his wiki page: the scores this season are very similar to last season. But I'm not sure if this really is because his scores have stagnated, or because he simply didn't skate that well (he mostly gets the job done regarding the jumps, but for his 3As for example, the percentage of jumps landed with +GOE is definitely lower. I'd have to look the exact number up though. He definitely needs to improve in getting his spin levels, he's losing major points there).
To be fair, and I say that as somebody who has zero interest in Kovtun or his skating, I think he did improve some of his weaknesses. he looks faster to me than last season. I remember I felt he was painfully slow sometimes, f.e. when going into the jumps, and right now I think his speed is okay. He also seems to try to skate to the music. From my personal view, he doesn't really get the job done, but IMO he seems to try to improve at least.
That said, I still think his PCS are inflated and all that yadda yadda. Just felt he got so much criticism regularely (from me too), that I wanted to say something nice.

Same here. I'm one of few who actually likes Kovtun's skating. And sometimes I feel like he's the Justin Bieber of skaters. What I mean is that he someone who people like to criticize a lot. Though I actually dislike Bieber for a few good reasons. Kovtun, not really.

 

[Interspectator]

Ah, on a positive note, Kovtun's new costume for the LP is a great improvement.

I'd put the Russian men a bit behind America right now, but I can see a lot of potential in Petrov and Adien. So they are still very much in contention for medals.

 

[xibsuarz]

Yes, I remember NHK pretty well. In Josh's favor though, he has made huge improvements and is on a massvie upwards swing. Kovtun kind of stayed the same or even ran out of gas a little (hence my gut feeling telling me Josh has a good chance of skating better than Kovtun at worlds).
I'd expect Josh to beat Kovtun in the PCS in the LP, as long as he manages to move up some ranks after the SP. I'm just not so sure about the SPs.

Yeah, Joshua's performance at 4CC was a quantum leap from what we saw in the GP circuit. I've come to think that the starting order could also play a part in that result. Joshua would skate in the second to last group, I think? So the judges may have to hold something back for the last group. though at that stage of the competition, a good SP could give him good PCS. But Kovtun could have the terrible luck of skating after someone with great skating skills (much like how it happened to Voronov at the SP at the GPF, skating after Hanyu) and his PCS could really drop.

Just to grt back to the topic of the thread, I've come to think that the American men and Russian men are very equal since they lack on the other's strong points. The Americans have the artistry while the Russian focus more on the technicals. The Japanese have the balance between both of these assets and that's why they're the best. Although they've lost two very important skaters recently (Takahashi and Machida), so they only big figure they have left is Hanyu (Mura, Kozuka and Murakami are not as consistent and Shoma is still young).

 

[Sandpiper]

I don't think Judges are blind. If Joshua does a mostly clean program with (emphasis here) +GOE jumps, then his PCS will be higher than Kovtun's.

Kovtun has many weaknesses that the judges are quite aware of. Which his why his scores have mostly stagnated over the last 2 seasons.
I think Joshua has a decent chance of beating Kovtun over all if Kovtun is his usual self. --at about 243 points combined.

Agreed. 4CC showed that the judges are perfectly willing to reward Joshua when he skates well. While I do find Kovtun overscored, I would be very, very surprised if he scored above a clean Josh in PCS. It's not like the judges are throwing Kovtun top contender PCS.

He could definitely beat Josh overall with consistency and TES, but PCS? Doubtful.

 

[Crossover]

Agreed. 4CC showed that the judges are perfectly willing to reward Joshua when he skates well. While I do find Kovtun overscored, I would be very, very surprised if he scored above a clean Josh in PCS. It's not like the judges are throwing Kovtun top contender PCS.

He could definitely beat Josh overall with consistency and TES, but PCS? Doubtful.

It is an off-topic, in my imagination, Boyang Jin with his monstrous quads beat Kovtun in TES in the next season after Jin comes to the senior competitions. That can be practically possible in TES-wise because Jin could land 4T, 4S and 4Lz! successfully if he is on.

 

[karne]

Yeah, Joshua's performance at 4CC was a quantum leap from what we saw in the GP circuit. I've come to think that the starting order could also play a part in that result. Joshua would skate in the second to last group, I think? So the judges may have to hold something back for the last group. though at that stage of the competition, a good SP could give him good PCS.

IIRC, Josh skated in the second-to-last group at 4CCs too, and he put up an 85. If they're going to give him 85s for a clean, no quad SP when his only other international outing this season was the disaster at NHK, then he's going into the 90s for sure when he does land the quad in it and with the additional reputation as the 4CC silver medallist. I think - and it was greatly to my surprise - that the judges have shown that they are ready and waiting with the marks.

 

[Sandpiper]

It is an off-topic, in my imagination, Boyang Jin with his monstrous quads beat Kovtun in TES in the next season after Jin comes to the senior competitions. That can be practically possible in TES-wise because Jin could land 4T, 4S and 4Lz! successfully if he is on.

Jin has prettier quads and can potentially beat Kovtun in TES if he goes clean. But I wish he'd cut back on the quads a bit, work on his SS and consistency, and find better programs.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Kovtun vs. Farris

Euros 2015 silver medalist vs. 4CC 2015 silver medalist.

Can't wait to see the outcome....Ugh why must worlds be 3 weeks away!!!!

 

[Li'Kitsu]

IIRC, Josh skated in the second-to-last group at 4CCs too, and he put up an 85. If they're going to give him 85s for a clean, no quad SP when his only other international outing this season was the disaster at NHK, then he's going into the 90s for sure when he does land the quad in it and with the additional reputation as the 4CC silver medallist. I think - and it was greatly to my surprise - that the judges have shown that they are ready and waiting with the marks.

He did, but it seems he'll skate earlier at worlds. I still think he'll get 90+ if clean, but the thing is, Kovtun would probably too...

I'm really not sure, I'm going back and forth on this all the time. But it's going to be irrelevant anyway, since I doubt both of them will skate a clean competition.

Can't wait to see the outcome....Ugh why must worlds be 3 weeks away!!!!

Junior worlds is in between to make the wait a little less annoying though...

 

[Mrs. P]

I don't know what to predict anymore. Even Yuzuru finishing 1st isn't guaranteed either given injuries. Luckily for me, I have way to much work to do to occupy the next three weeks.

 

[xibsuarz]

IIRC, Josh skated in the second-to-last group at 4CCs too, and he put up an 85. If they're going to give him 85s for a clean, no quad SP when his only other international outing this season was the disaster at NHK, then he's going into the 90s for sure when he does land the quad in it and with the additional reputation as the 4CC silver medallist. I think - and it was greatly to my surprise - that the judges have shown that they are ready and waiting with the marks.

Wait, are you saying that Farris will add a quad in his SP? Because that could be a great game changer. I have my doubts whether he could pose a threat to the top competitors (guys that have constantly high TES and PCS) unless they have a massive breakdown, but with a quad in the SP, his chances of getting ahead of the Kovtun and Voronov, or at least getting to their level in terms of scores, increase significantly.

I don't know what to predict anymore. Even Yuzuru finishing 1st isn't guaranteed either given injuries. Luckily for me, I have way to much work to do to occupy the next three weeks.

The prediction thread for Worlds is going to be so much fun

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I don't know what to predict anymore. Even Yuzuru finishing 1st isn't guaranteed either given injuries. Luckily for me, I have way to much work to do to occupy the next three weeks.

Well, it is kind of exciting? We all said the same thing before 4CC. And that turned out to be an awesome competition. Maybe that's a good sign

 

[LRK]

Expect the unexpected?

Except with the men I don't know what to "expect" in the first place...

 

[ice coverage]

Wait, are you saying that Farris will add a quad in his SP? Because that could be a great game changer. I have my doubts whether he could pose a threat to the top competitors (guys that have constantly high TES and PCS) unless they have a massive breakdown, but with a quad in the SP, his chances of getting ahead of the Kovtun and Voronov, or at least getting to their level in terms of scores, increase significantly. ...

Yes, Josh Farris has affirmed that his SP at Worlds will have a quad.

 

[karne]

Wait, are you saying that Farris will add a quad in his SP? Because that could be a great game changer. I have my doubts whether he could pose a threat to the top competitors (guys that have constantly high TES and PCS) unless they have a massive breakdown, but with a quad in the SP, his chances of getting ahead of the Kovtun and Voronov, or at least getting to their level in terms of scores, increase significantly.
:

From this lovely interview published today:

Farris also announced that he will be adding a quad toe loop in his short program for the World Championships. He originally intended to include it for Four Continents, but the abbreviated turnaround made that impossible. Most likely, he will attempt the quad in combination and follow it with a triple Axel and a solo Lutz.

 

[silverlake22]

The question is whether he will land/rotate the quad. A clean quadless SP for a score around 85 is probably better than a SP with a botched combo, UR or quad fall. Sigh. I wouldn't be worried if he was trying the quad on it's own, he's at least been standing up on and rotating it as of late. But a combination? 4t-2t is hardly worth more than a 3-3, it's a high risk for a little reward, and then the 4t-3t is really hard and he's never landed a quad in combination in competition before. Though I guess he could always plan on doing it in combination and then tack on a combo to his lutz if it doesn't pan out. Gah. Trying it in the SP is the first step towards landing it consistently in the SP, so his mindset is spot on. I just hope the practices leading up to the SP at words are taken into consideration and he only tries the quad combo if he's nailing it in practice AT WORLDS. I have no doubts that he's probably landing them consistently at home, but competition is different.

 

[HanDomi]

The question is whether he will land/rotate the quad. A clean quadless SP for a score around 85 is probably better than a SP with a botched combo, UR or quad fall. Sigh. I wouldn't be worried if he was trying the quad on it's own, he's at least been standing up on and rotating it as of late. But a combination? 4t-2t is hardly worth more than a 3-3, it's a high risk for a little reward, and then the 4t-3t is really hard and he's never landed a quad in combination in competition before. Though I guess he could always plan on doing it in combination and then tack on a combo to his lutz if it doesn't pan out. Gah. Trying it in the SP is the first step towards landing it consistently in the SP, so his mindset is spot on. I just hope the practices leading up to the SP at words are taken into consideration and he only tries the quad combo if he's nailing it in practice AT WORLDS. I have no doubts that he's probably landing them consistently at home, but competition is different.

Because doing solo quad in SP he would have to do steps before it, and skaters say it is harder to do solo quad from steps than quad combo without steps

 

[Sandpiper]

Because doing solo quad in SP he would have to do steps before it, and skaters say it is harder to do solo quad from steps than quad combo without steps

On the other hand, if you do quad out of steps, you get to do a 3-3, which is much easier than a 4-3. I think it just depends on the skater.

(But if a skater struggles with both 4-3 and quad out of steps, I think trying a solo quad and a 3-3--assuming your triples are consistent--is smarter. Because if you can only do a double toe after your quad, you leave a lot of points on the table. Whereas if your solo quad doesn't have clear steps... you'll get some negative GOE but few judges actually take the -3 deduction.)

 

[karne]

The question is whether he will land/rotate the quad. A clean quadless SP for a score around 85 is probably better than a SP with a botched combo, UR or quad fall. Sigh. I wouldn't be worried if he was trying the quad on it's own, he's at least been standing up on and rotating it as of late. But a combination? 4t-2t is hardly worth more than a 3-3, it's a high risk for a little reward, and then the 4t-3t is really hard and he's never landed a quad in combination in competition before. Though I guess he could always plan on doing it in combination and then tack on a combo to his lutz if it doesn't pan out. Gah. Trying it in the SP is the first step towards landing it consistently in the SP, so his mindset is spot on. I just hope the practices leading up to the SP at words are taken into consideration and he only tries the quad combo if he's nailing it in practice AT WORLDS. I have no doubts that he's probably landing them consistently at home, but competition is different.

I think this is the perfect time to try it. He's been nailing it at practice for years, and now he's landing them and staying on his feet in competition. His confidence is sky-high at the moment and he's only getting better and better. I really think there's no danger in the SP for him. It's not a Jason or Adam situation.