The Politics of Figure Skating

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, I'd like to add one more to your list of possibilities. Since the clear favorites are now Slutskaya, Plushenko, Totmianina/Marinen and Navka/Kostamorov, do you think there will be any pressure on the ISU to "sacrifice" someone just so it won't look to television audiences like figure skating is an all-Russian sport?

MM

Good questiion, MM - I think the Russian sweep will come in Torino. There is so much determination in the team that individual skaters do not want to be the ones to upset the sweep.

I doubt it will affect American fans of figure skating but for the casual viewers it will be a turn off. Still I see silver in Ladies, and Dance (if the citizenship comes through). There should be good showings in Mens, and Pairs.

It's incredible that one has to think that America's best chance for gold is in DANCE? Whooduh thunk it?

Joe

 

[mzheng]

Hey, Joesitz, I was wondering where you've been. Havn't seen you post much lately....I was about to post a thread "Joe where you?" .

Originally Posted by Mathman
Joe, I'd like to add one more to your list of possibilities. Since the clear favorites are now Slutskaya, Plushenko, Totmianina/Marinen and Navka/Kostamorov, do you think there will be any pressure on the ISU to "sacrifice" someone just so it won't look to television audiences like figure skating is an all-Russian sport?

MM

I was thinking in the same line before last Worlds. But the problem self resolved by Plushenko's withdrawing from LP.

 

[Piel]

You are a smart Kwaniac, preparing your excuses in advance. Like a good lawyer always show up prepared.

I believe I have asked legitimate questions here. Now, if you feel your favorite is threatened by the truth, that's being a little paranoid, don't you think? After all, the COP numbers don't lie...but do they always tell the truth ?

Meanwhile. back at the grassy knoll......

 

[nymkfan51]

I actually think there could be a backlash ... most especially if any of these victories aren't clear cut.
If one of the favorites makes a mistake and you have another competitor who lights the house on fire ... but then loses because they didn't rack up enough points with their spins, etc. ... you just might have people saying "bah, it's all fixed anyway."
The ladies competition could be interesting ... mainly because it's the last discipline, and by that point you could already have 3 Russian gold medals. Say, for example, that Irina does a clean 6 triple performance ... no 3/3, but 48 Bielmanns ... gets close to 9.0's in PCS ... then either Sasha or Michelle skates a clean 7 triple performance with no Bielmanns, and wows the crowd out of their seats ... what will the judges do?

ETA ... it's not such an unlikely scenario because Irina's PCS will clearly be ahead of everyone else's, no matter how they skate ... as long as she stays on her feet.

 

[chuckm]

A Russian sweep at Torino will be a last gasp for the Russians, not to be repeated for a long time. These skaters are the last remnants of the old Soviet system, and many if not all of them will likely retire after Torino and/or Worlds.

Who can fill Irina's or Evgeny's shoes? None of the other Russian men or ladies are anywhere near as consistent as those two. WIth the exit of Totmianina/Marinin and Petrova/Tikhonov, the Russians cannot depend on Obertas/Slavnov or Chuvilyaev to take their places on the podium. In Ice Dance, Domnina/Shabalin are not nearly ready to challenge for gold. The next couple of years, competition will be wide open on all fronts..

 

[nicole_l]

I agree, chuckm. It seems to me like the next dominant force is going to be Japan, at least in singles. They've got skaters waiting in the wings of the wings...

 

[slutskayafan21]

I believe I have asked legitimate questions here. Now, if you feel your favorite is threatened by the truth, that's being a little paranoid, don't you think? After all, the COP numbers don't lie...but do they always tell the truth ?

Meanwhile. back at the grassy knoll......

I was just teasing with you a bit. You brought up some good points, I think the PCS scores need some more reviewing, they are a bit too subjective right now.
The technical scoring regulations are good, people can nitpick, but they are trying to set an established standard for scoring atleast; but the PCS scoring and the accountability of judges for it still needs some work.

I also agree with chuckm, that this is the last wave of great Russian stars for awhile, and they want to go out with a real BANG so to speak. The one thing I might disagree on is Obertas/Slavnov, I do think they have the potential to be a top level pair in the next quadrennial, whether they ever get there or not is another question, if they dont come close to medaling in Turin I could see them splitting however.

 

[Jill]

Just thought I'd throw in my two cents here. Please indulge me, as I haven't read the entire thread.

Okay, Politics....Yes, I believe the judges still prejudge events. Since Irina and her ubiquitous Beillman keep coming up, I'll use her as an example of someone who was maybe a tad overmarked at Worlds 05.

Now, on the other end of the spectrum is Surya Bonaly, who was almost always (arguably) undermarked. I have no clue as the the inner workings of the French federation, and why they never seemed to be in Surya's corner. But I can't help wondering how she would be marked if she did the bulk of her program in a Beillman. Or how Irina would be marked if she learned how to backflip.

Just a thought.....:scratch:

 

[attyfan]

I actually think there could be a backlash ... most especially if any of these victories aren't clear cut.
If one of the favorites makes a mistake and you have another competitor who lights the house on fire ... but then loses because they didn't rack up enough points with their spins, etc. ... you just might have people saying "bah, it's all fixed anyway."
The ladies competition could be interesting ... mainly because it's the last discipline, and by that point you could already have 3 Russian gold medals. Say, for example, that Irina does a clean 6 triple performance ... no 3/3, but 48 Bielmanns ... gets close to 9.0's in PCS ... then either Sasha or Michelle skates a clean 7 triple performance with no Bielmanns, and wows the crowd out of their seats ... what will the judges do?... .

IMO, the scenario you propose -- that the skater who really wows the crowd doesn't get enough points to win -- is one of the ISU's great fears, but for different reasons. If the skater that wows the crowd out of their seats doesn't garner enough points to do well, the audience may recognize that, under the new rules, the results might be fair, but they will either stop watching skating entirely -- simply because they don't like the programs that score well under the CoP, or, watch only pro events, so they can see the kind of programs that they like. In either event, the ISU's income from TV rights will be cut even more than it has been. As long as the ISU gets half its money from TV rights, it has to be sure that the audience gets what it likes.

 

[Jill]

You get it, attyfan. If the viewing public gets mad, they stop watching. Has anyone besides me noticed how much less skating is broadcast? Fox used to run Grand Prix events every Sunday. Now, we're lucky it they show them on ESPN, and that's after football and basketball is over. Even ABC doesn't show it as much, and the best of the pro events, Uncle Dick's World Professional Champions, is on the ash heap of history.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

There still are a lot of transplanted Russofiles living in the USA and they will be delighted with the sweep (and why not?). Ethnicity always beats out patriotism in the USA.

But thinking about the very possible results, I am not disturbed by the sweep.

Evgeni is in a class by himself.

Irina is always overmarked in PCS scores,imo. I do not see her as a beautiful skater, but her coach knows the CoP and has arranged her program so that any wow moves from competitors (notably Sasha) can be compared. She does remain a force for her jumps.

The ho hum dance team already has gotten full CoP favor and there is no reason for them not to get the same in the Olys.

Even if S&Z skate, they have not practiced in ages and will fall short to the Russian team

The Olys will be the end of the Soviet era and how well the capitalist Russians fare in the future remains to be seen.

With Kwan and Cohen most likely retiring in Torino, American interest in figure skating will wane, imo. COI will need a few draws to keep that company going. While the new champs will draw the the figure skating fan, I don't think the general public will go to see Evgeni and Irina as being special.

However, if the interest continues in Canada, Europe and Asia, then the USFSA will just have to be patient.

JMO - Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

Sasha is 4 years younger than Michelle. I think Michelle will definitely retire after the Calgary Worlds, but I see Sasha possably continuing for another 4 years, I think it depends alot on whether she wins Olympics and/or Worlds this year though.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Sasha is 4 years younger than Michelle. I think Michelle will definitely retire after the Calgary Worlds, but I see Sasha possably continuing for another 4 years, I think it depends alot on whether she wins Olympics and/or Worlds this year though.

Do you think she should go for a third try if she doesn't get gold in Torino? Fans of Kwan were lambasted for wanting Michelle to continue skating in SLC and Torino.

Some fans want a turn over in favor of the teenagers coming up.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

Do you think she should go for a third try if she doesn't get gold in Torino? Fans of Kwan were lambasted for wanting Michelle to continue skating in SLC and Torino.

Some fans want a turn over in favor of the teenagers coming up.

Joe

I agree with you on the general perception of skating fans towards skaters "staying in", and supposably "holding back" the next generation from having their turn. However I doubt the decision that skaters and their camp makes have anything to do with the general perception of skating fans, even those that love and perform for skating fans. Anyway in Sasha's case it might be a different perspective, Kwan had already been monopolizing the U.S championships, and to a lesser extent even the World competitions minus the Olympics, for quite a few years by the time the 2002 Olympics had passed. Sasha has never won even a U.S title, nor the even bigger World title. So it is not like she would be continuing to hog all the important titles for herself, she hasnt even experienced herself, as of now anyway, yet.

I am only thinking she is more likely to stay in than Kwan since she is 4 years younger, came on the scene 6 years later, and it still seems very reasonable for female skaters to stay in their primes until their mid-20s, after that it becomes alot more tricky. Like I said I think it will depend alot on whether she wins the big event, possably more than one, or preferably the biggest one of all-the Olympics, as to what she might do. It is all personal speculation on my part though, I dont really know, from what I have read on her I dont get the impression moving after after this season is as certain as some think though.

 

[chuckm]

Sasha has been skating as a Senior since 2000 and she is physically vulnerable to injury because of her back. I don't think Sasha is that dedicated to training and competing, and she is an emotionally fragile competitor at the important events. The only way I see her not retiring is if she finishes second at the US championship, fails to medal at Torino, and doesn't win 2006 Worlds. I think Sasha wants to win one major title, or at least an Olympic medal, before she bows out.

 

[attyfan]

Do you think she should go for a third try if she doesn't get gold in Torino? Fans of Kwan were lambasted for wanting Michelle to continue skating in SLC and Torino.

Some fans want a turn over in favor of the teenagers coming up.

Joe

I think the attitude that skating facts should have about Sasha being replaced by the teenagers should be the same as Sasha's current attitude about Michelle's not retiring -- that a really good competitor will only create a better skater.

 

[Kuchana]

I think the attitude that skating facts should have about Sasha being replaced by the teenagers should be the same as Sasha's current attitude about Michelle's not retiring -- that a really good competitor will only create a better skater.

I agree strongly with this. It should be left only to the choice of that particular skaer and not by a whim by other skaters, fans, judges, coaches, etc for that matter who should determine it.

 

[Rgirl]

Well put. So here I go with my speculative but illogical answers, LOL.

1. Piel really asks two questions.

(a) Is Irina being gifted with undeserved high score in prelude to handing her the Olympic gold medal? and

(b) If so, why would the ISU and its member federations want to do such a thing?

IMHO the answer to the first question is no, and so the second is moot.

Irina has skated great at every outing this year, while all Michelle and Sasha have to show for their season so far is a a sore butt and a bum hip. Shizuka has been up and down. No one else has brought their A game yet.

I cannot think of any way in which it would profit the ISU to crown Irina especially rather than someone else, come February, if another skater mounts a challenge.

2. Doggygirl asks, show me the numbers.

I think the numbers go something like this. Suppose one judge acting alone wants Alissa Czisny to win Skate America instead of Elena Sokolova. So he raises Alissa's PCSs by, say, 0.50 points across the board, and lowers Sokolova's by a similar amount. It would certainly not attract attention to give a 6.75 instead of a 6.25. Depending somewhat on the random draw and trimming procedures, this translates into a net swing of about 1.7 points.

1.0 points x 5 components x 2.4 factor for SP and LP together / 7 (averaged over 7 judges) = 1.71.

So this one judge could change the result of a contest provided it was closer than 1.7 points.

In contrast, under ordinal judging one judge acting alone could change the outcome only in the case of a five / four split.

So which is more rare, a five/four split in the olden days, or a close contest of 1.7 points or less under CoP?

Two judges acting in concert could change the winner under ordinal judging in the case of a six / three split.

Under the NJS, they could do the same if the competitors finished within 3.4 points or so of each other.

So under both systems, in the case of a clear-cut winner, it is hard to cheat without getting caught.

But in a close contest it is easy in both systems.

Mathman

I know I'm going way back when on this thread, but I did my duty and read the whole thing. Here are my questions on the cheating scenario under the NJS. How would the judge or judges in your examples know if his/their score(s) would not be thrown out as the random one(s)? Or if he/they had the high or low scores in their chosen area? Finally, he/they would have to count on the competitors finishing within about 1.7 or 3.4 points of each other. That seems like counting on an awful lot of uncontrollable variables going your way to get your skater a certain placement.

Obviously I haven't read Dr. George Rossnano's papers on why it's equally easy to cheat under the NJS or OBO system (would love to if you have any links or can provide summaries), but some of the reasons it seems easier to me for judges to cheat under the 6.0 system is that, as we heard on phone taps regarding I believe Bourne/Kraatz finishing off the podium in ice dance in exchange for a Russian team (I think--don't recall all the details) finishing on the podium in ice dance or pairs at the '98 Olympics, a strong judge could call four other judges and "arrange" the placements, ie, "Canada 4, Russia 3" and thus five judges would be in agreement. Four phone calls and the fix is in, no worrying about scores between competitors or the cheating judges' scores being thrown out, either randomly or because of high or low scores.

Also, Rgirl asks re this example, "1.0 points x 5 components x 2.4 factor for SP and LP together / 7 (averaged over 7 judges) = 1.71," with 11 judges, the two high and two low scores thrown out, plus two random scores, wouldn't that be averaged over 5 judges instead of 7? Or did they add more judges for the Olys or stop throwing out two scores?

Anyway, under the 6.0 system, it seems that judges could get together, decide the placements of the most likely top skaters, and as long as each skater performed decently, there wouldn't be a justifiable reason to question why some judges placed a skater in 4th, some in 2nd or 3rd, and some in 1st. As I said before, under the COP, it seems as if a lot more things that the cheating judges have no control over can happen to ruin their plans. Although I do concede your point about the break-up of the Soviet Union allowing virtually all the judges to come from former Soviet countries, I've yet to see that. In all the international events I've looked at, the judging panel has been a mix of Russian, Eastern European, Western European, North American, and Pan Pacific judges or at least a balance between East and West even if not all areas are represented.

Also, in the 6.0 system, one skater simply had to have the majority of first place votes, even if that meant only three, just as long as the other six judges placed other skaters in a variety of place from 2nd to say 6th. Of course I never did get the mathematics of how a 4th place skater after the SP could win as long as the 1st place after the SP was beaten by somebody else and I know you do, so I'm not asking these questions as a challenge to you or Dr. Rossano--although, damn the torpedoes, I'll challenge anybody! --but rather because, even though your post shed light on how a judge or judges might rig the outcome of an event under COP, it seemed to me to depend too much on luck going the way of the cheating judges whereas under 6.0, the judges didn't need luck. They just needed other judges to do what they said they would do. In other words, human nature, which I'll bet on any day over luck.

So please, if you don't mind, convince me with either tougher examples or some of Dr. Rossano's theories. Of course Mathman theories are just as welcome.

Finally, where are the judging panels listed for each discipline for the '06 Olympics? You mentioned in another post "Take a look at the judging panel for pairs at the Torino Olympics." Thanks.

Rgirl

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

In all the international events I've looked at, the judging panel has been a mix of Russian, Eastern European, Western European, North American, and Pan Pacific judges or at least a balance between East and West even if not all areas are represented.Rgirl

I've also looked at the judging panels and have found that the Russian and Eastern European judges are in accord with the placements; Western European are a mixed bag as is US and Canada; also China and Japan.

My theory is that 1/3 of the judges will be culturally together on their results; and 2/3 of the judges will be more than likely different from each other.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

The problem lies when the entire 1/3 that are "culturally" together are among the scores chosen. Then the 1/3 becomes a powerful bloc of votes.