U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread
- Thread starter R.D.
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I was interested (and surprised) to find out that on the GP this fall, Rachael and Victoria were the only 2 skaters to successfully complete all 5 triples correctly. I'm beginning to think there should be a point or 2 bonus for this, since it has become rare.
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Because her boyfriend probably choreographs her programs for free
Which is a pity because I really loved her Merry Christmas Mr. Lawrence SP. Makes me wonder what could've happened if Miki continued down that trajectory...
Didn't she do Merry Christmas, Mr. Lawrence with him?
I kind of think she went to Morozov because of Shiz. The two are always on ice shows together (leading me to think they are close friends) & I know that Miki admires Shiz a lot. Miki also went to Morozov right after the Olympic season, probably inspired by Shizuka's great Olympic showing. Morozov's a coach/choreographer, so it would be redundant to use Wilson.
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This would certainly seem to reward something important, having developed a full skill set in re: jumping. And rewarding all-around skills seems to be something COP generally strives for. I think this would be a very worthy addition to the system, getting a bonus for putting for mastering all 5 jumps and taking the risk of putting them out there rather than cherry picking and presenting only one's best jumps.
I stumbled across an article on twitter that may be of relevance to this thread. She is not one of the Contenders we speak of, but apparently aspires to be one. I like it when skaters aren't afraid to state their ambitions.
http://daniellecandela.wordpress.com/2010/12/04/melissa-bulangagui-gears-up-for-nationals/
[snip]
Well...CAN she do it? What do y'all think?
Personally, the way everyone's been skating this season, who knows. I think if I had to bet on any newcomer breaking through at Nats, it'd be Gao. But we've had surprises before. Didn't Brittney Rizo (sp?) make the final group once?
http://daniellecandela.wordpress.com/2010/12/04/melissa-bulangagui-gears-up-for-nationals/
[snip]
Well...CAN she do it? What do y'all think?
Personally, the way everyone's been skating this season, who knows. I think if I had to bet on any newcomer breaking through at Nats, it'd be Gao. But we've had surprises before. Didn't Brittney Rizo (sp?) make the final group once?
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Doris, thanks for compiling that list! (I extracted only the ones managing all of them here.) I agree that there should be a special points bonus for anyone completing all five jumps. The feat deserves some sort of recognition, because it shows a mastery of the whole range of a skill.
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Melissa Bulanhagui comes close to rotating a triple axel. With the new rules, if she gets as close as she did summer before last, she could surprise and maybe make the top 6.
Wow, I didn't know she could do that. Still, I don't think it will matter much unless two or more of the Contenders blow the SP. I don't know that much about her. What's her average SP score? If it's, say, mid-40s, or 50, she'll need some help at the top to get to the top.
ETA: I had another look at the list of American high scores on FSU, which is linked here some pages back, I think. Her best score this season, apparently, is 133.72 (total) at Nebelhorn Trophy, which places her 12th on that list, and would have placed her 12th at last year's Nats, 15th in 2009. The 6th place finisher last year (Amanda Dobbs) just cracked 150 pts. I don't know how Mel B skated at 2010 Nats, but the question that arises is, is an 17-18 pt increase attainable for her?
ETA: I had another look at the list of American high scores on FSU, which is linked here some pages back, I think. Her best score this season, apparently, is 133.72 (total) at Nebelhorn Trophy, which places her 12th on that list, and would have placed her 12th at last year's Nats, 15th in 2009. The 6th place finisher last year (Amanda Dobbs) just cracked 150 pts. I don't know how Mel B skated at 2010 Nats, but the question that arises is, is an 17-18 pt increase attainable for her?
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Yup Rizo was 4th after the SP in 2009, and finished 7th overall. I'd say last year Amanda Dobbs coming in 6th was a pretty big surprise, especially considering her technical content and that it was her senior debut and she didn't have much of an international reputation yet.
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AFAIR, Mel didn't skate all that well at Nebelhorn. She fell several times, and didn't successfully rotate the 3A. She tends to just go for everything.
Here's her 2009 attempt at a 3A2t inthe SP at Liberty:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uVNW8hA-R8
Here's her 2009 attempt at a 3A2t inthe SP at Liberty:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uVNW8hA-R8
I'm pretty sure Melissa Bulanhagui has only tried the 3A in competition at Liberty for the past 3 summers and never anywhere else... yet, anyway. At Nebelhorn this past September, she won the bronze thanks to her clean 2nd place SP that scored 51.20 (3Lz+2Lo, 3S, 2A), but was credited with landing only 3 triples in her 5th place FS (no falls, but she had underrotation calls on her 3Lz and 3F). Her highest finish in her 3 Nationals as a Senior was 8th in 2008.
Like Bulanhagui this year, Amanda Dobbs had a Senior B comp. bronze medal (2009 Ice Challenge) heading into 2010 Nationals. Dobbs' success last year was mostly due to landing the easier triples (3T and 3S) and skating pretty cleanly with speed and flair. She's been attempting the 3F this season but wasn't able to land the jump at her 2 internationals this fall (5th at Finlandia Trophy, 6th at Cup of China).
Like Bulanhagui this year, Amanda Dobbs had a Senior B comp. bronze medal (2009 Ice Challenge) heading into 2010 Nationals. Dobbs' success last year was mostly due to landing the easier triples (3T and 3S) and skating pretty cleanly with speed and flair. She's been attempting the 3F this season but wasn't able to land the jump at her 2 internationals this fall (5th at Finlandia Trophy, 6th at Cup of China).
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Amanda's PCS at nationals last year were really pretty high though, and she came in 6th primarily because favorites bombed (although even if they hadn't, she would have still been in the top 10), I also feel like her PCS internationally are quite a bit higher than Melissa's. So even though Melissa has more jump content, PCS could hold her back from breaking the top 10 at nationals, especially if most of the ladies skate up to their potential there.
6th place in 2010 was 150 points.
6th place in 2009, I think, was ~157 points.
With the Oly pressure off this year, I'd expect the required score to place top 6 to be in the high 150s. Maybe even 160 if we have a strong comp.
Mel B's high score is 133. If she wants to reach her goal she sure has her work cut
out for her.
6th place in 2009, I think, was ~157 points.
With the Oly pressure off this year, I'd expect the required score to place top 6 to be in the high 150s. Maybe even 160 if we have a strong comp.
Mel B's high score is 133. If she wants to reach her goal she sure has her work cut
out for her.
But don't you have to account for some Nationals inflation? IE Rachael Flatt getting just over 200 at Nationals and her personal best is 182.49 from the Olympics.
Though I guess it isn't always inflated. Amanda Dobbs got 150.72 but her personal best is 158 from 2010 Four Continents.
I guess you can also consider this list — SBs for 2010-2011
Czisny - 172.74
Nagasu - 167.79
Gao — 167.14
Wagner -167.02
Flat - 162.86
Siraj - 161.75
Lam - 156.41
Zawadzki -151.35
Baga - 138.70
Zhang - 133.86
Dobbs -132.45
Cessario - 122.39
With Senior B's not counting toward ISU PB's, we can plug this number in. At 133.72, Melissa is 11th behind Zhang but above Dobbs.
But she's clustered in with Baga, Zhang and Dobbs, so perhaps she could get into the top 10 and beat her 8th place finish with a solid skate. Sixth place may be stretching it given there are eight women that are in solid 150+ territory, but you never know I guess.
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Yep, I now predict Alissa Czisny will either win Nationals or place second, either way she's on the team, even if she only lands 3 triples like she did at 2009 US Nationals against a 7-triple Rachael Flatt. Btw, I think she will land more than that this time around, she's on an upward momentum! :thumbsup:
This is her year, and I honestly hope she makes the most of it at Nationals & Worlds. At least redeem herself by earning back 3 spots for Worlds, as it was her that lost 3 spots for the Olympics. No, that I don't forget, but my anger at her has lessened.
It remains to be seen if she's a team player, as hopefully in the future the Olympics does include a Team Event, which has been much talked about.^)
This is her year, and I honestly hope she makes the most of it at Nationals & Worlds. At least redeem herself by earning back 3 spots for Worlds, as it was her that lost 3 spots for the Olympics. No, that I don't forget, but my anger at her has lessened.
It remains to be seen if she's a team player, as hopefully in the future the Olympics does include a Team Event, which has been much talked about.
^)
