Which layout does Trusova need to win?

[dancelion21]

Sasha's GOEs at Russian domestic events can mostly be explained through the loss of the Eteri bonus. While the Eteri bonus exists in international events too, it definitely isn't as prominent as it is at the Russian events. At international competitions, her GOE for clean jumps is pretty similar to Anna's, but she loses out on spin and step sequence GOE (which is fair). If you compare the same elements at competitions where Sasha and Anna were both present last season (Grand Prix Final and Euros), they got the same exact GOE for the elements that they shared which were clean.

Of course, Sasha hasn't competed internationally since switching coaches, so all of this could be moot if we suddenly start seeing Anna get +5s on all her quads when she was just getting +3 last season.

If you want to compare the element scores, SkatingScores compiles the information really nicely. First link is Anna, second link is Sasha.

Skating Scores: Latest Figure Skating Results, Scores, Rankings & Statistics

The best resource for Figure Skating scores and stats on the web.

skatingscores.com

Skating Scores: Latest Figure Skating Results, Scores, Rankings & Statistics

The best resource for Figure Skating scores and stats on the web.

skatingscores.com

 

[MintGreen]

If using Russian national ladies layout as the baseline, Sasha would need a 3A in short and 3 quads in free to be able to stay even with Anna and possibly Kamila as well, at the minimum. She lost out to Anna by almost 18 points between two programs. They have similar base values. I think Anna's BV is higher than Sasha's by about 3 points. Suppose Sasha gets all level 4 in her spins and steps, the the gap between the BVs can be cut down to less than 2 points.

Therefore, roughly speaking, Sasha need an additional 16 points to make up for the deficiency, whatever it means. A simple math: replacing the 2A with 3A in short, and 2A with 4T in free, are an increase of 10.9 in BV. Plus 30% of GOE and that can make up for 14 points. And we also will have to count on that the Eteri bonus won't be as wide as in domestic competition. That will place Sasha on par with Anna and Kamila point wise, if everything goes well.

 

[Alex65]

I think that as soon as Sasha recovers from the injury that bothered her at the Russian Championship, she will return to two 4T + one 4Lz. Two 4Lz are of great value, but also a greater risk for Sasha.
It will be interesting to see the judging of international judges on which any major tournament. Only this can be the basis for any serious assumptions.

 

[Skatesocs]

Glad to make you laugh

 

[gliese]

Plus some skaters get huge GOE even for jumps with visible errors, while others get minus GOE for the exact same mistakes (step outs, landing double footed). Where's the rhyme or reason?

Probably because it's hard to know what 0 should be. Should 0 be landing with no UR and being stable or should 0 have allowance for a couple wobbles because that's the "average." If it was the former, most of my jumps as a skater myself would get 0's +1's but if it was the latter most of my jumps would get +2's and +3's. GOE's also come from bullets such as good height or speed but how do we determine what is average and what deserves a +? What is good speed or height? My coach would say that my jumps probably wouldn't deserve plusses but I get them all the time in competition.

However one judge gave Sasha a 0 on her 4Lz-3T and she mostly got 3s. Her jump was just as amazing, so what the heck? In fact that 1 judge didn't seem to like Sasha's jumps at all and I'd like to know why? Sometimes if a judge scores wildly different from their peers they will be asked to explain, I wonder if this happened? I mean who knows maybe they have perfectly legitimate reasons, but without knowing the reasoning it's hard to conclude anything except they just don't like Sasha's skating style.

I hope that happened because there was nothing about that jump that deserved a 0. It was perfect and had many of the bullets with no doubt.

 

[Amei]

Exactly! And now it's +5 to -5 it's even harder.

Plus some skaters get huge GOE even for jumps with visible errors, while others get minus GOE for the exact same mistakes (step outs, landing double footed). Where's the rhyme or reason?

For instance Kamila got 5s and 4s across the board for her opening 4T-2T, fair enough it was a beautiful jump.

However one judge gave Sasha a 0 on her 4Lz-3T and she mostly got 3s. Her jump was just as amazing, so what the heck? In fact that 1 judge didn't seem to like Sasha's jumps at all and I'd like to know why? Sometimes if a judge scores wildly different from their peers they will be asked to explain, I wonder if this happened? I mean who knows maybe they have perfectly legitimate reasons, but without knowing the reasoning it's hard to conclude anything except they just don't like Sasha's skating style.

We're speaking of nationals, right? Based on my assumption we are talking about Nationals (which I think is the only competition where Trusova did a 4lz+3T combination when you made the comment) - Trusova's jump while impressive, had a long setup (both her quad lutzes had this) she spent what seemed like half the rink gliding back into the jump (estimating that based off video is a bit difficult). I can see where a judge could look at that setup and not give it much in the way of GOE, I do think 0 is a little too harsh.

 

[Dawn825]

Probably because it's hard to know what 0 should be. Should 0 be landing with no UR and being stable or should 0 have allowance for a couple wobbles because that's the "average." If it was the former, most of my jumps as a skater myself would get 0's +1's but if it was the latter most of my jumps would get +2's and +3's. GOE's also come from bullets such as good height or speed but how do we determine what is average and what deserves a +? What is good speed or height? My coach would say that my jumps probably wouldn't deserve plusses but I get them all the time in competition.

Kind of a related question: with the +/-3 system, there was a list of errors that must receive a negative GOE, as in, the deductions are taken from 0, and a list of errors that allowed deductions to be taken from and result in a positive GOE. Is it the same with +/-5? Or can anything except a fall just result in a slightly lower positive GOE?

 

[rollerblade]

Kind of a related question: with the +/-3 system, there was a list of errors that must receive a negative GOE, as in, the deductions are taken from 0, and a list of errors that allowed deductions to be taken from and result in a positive GOE. Is it the same with +/-5? Or can anything except a fall just result in a slightly lower positive GOE?

Yes. The "reduction for errors" are listed in the PDF.
https://www.isu.org/media-centre/press-releases/2018-8/18119-new-grade-of-execution-2018-final/file

 

[jenaj]

4lz
4lz-3t
3f
4t
3lz-3lo
3lz-3t
2A

 

[Lzbee]

Kamila is now doing 4 ultra-c elements --> 3A in the SP, 3A and two 4T in the FP. It seems Sasha needs one more quad to win over the pcs skaters so she's going to need 5 quads...

(Or 4 quads and a 3A in the SP)

 

[Senseo]

4lz
4lz-3t
3f
4t
3lz-3lo
3lz-3t
2A

In my opinion it is better not to have the flip
4Lz
4Lz+3T
2A
3Lo
4T+eu+3s
3lz+3Lo
3lz

 

[Fool]

In my opinion it is better not to have the flip
4Lz
4Lz+3T
2A
3Lo
4T+eu+3s
3lz+3Lo
3lz

She can't repeat three jumps like this.

 

[dancelion21]

With a 3A in her short program, a 3A and two 4T in her free program, Kamila could probably expect to score around 254 internationally (82 for the short, 172 for the free, since a clean 3A is worth about 6 points more than a clean 2A).

Anna with three clean quads (two 4Lz and one 4F) would probably score 255-256 internationally.
Sasha with a 3A in the short, two 4Lz, one 4T, and one 4S in the free also scores 257-258 internationally.

Essentially, by adding the 3A to the free program, Kamila puts herself on the same playing field as a clean Sasha/Anna. If she didn't have the 3A in the free program, then Kamila would rely on Anna/Sasha making mistakes on their quads to win. This isn't a bad gamble since neither Anna or Sasha have hit their ceiling before. Anna's never landed three clean quads in one program, Sasha has never landed a triple axel in the short or four clean quads in one program. As we saw last season, Aliona was able to win consistently since even though Anna and Sasha have a higher ceiling, they haven't reached it.

Kamila put herself in the driver's seat of the Olympic Gold conversation by hitting her ceiling at the Channel One Cup, cleanly landing the triple axel in the short, the triple axel in the free, and two quad toes in the free.

So if Sasha is clean with this layout, she can compete with a clean Kamila.

Short Program:
3A
3F (I'd prefer if she did a 3Lo to avoid the edge call, but Sasha has yet to do a solo 3Lo in the short)
3Lz-3Tx

Free Program:
4Lz-3T
4Lz
4S
2A
4T-Eu-3Sx
3Lz-3Lox
3Lzx

Edit: I realized that in my old calculation, I had Sasha doing two quad toes and not two quad lutzes. Since a clean quad lutz is worth about two more points than a clean quad toe, I added two points to her score approximation.

 

[Skatesocs]

I wouldn't have her do a quad combo in the bonus section. My layouts for Trusova are:

SP:
3A
3F
spin
3Lz+3Lo x
spin
step sequence
spin

LP:
4S
4Lz
3A
4T+3T
spin
4T x
chsq
3Lz+1Lo+3S x
3Lz+3Lo x
spin
step sequence
spin

No Flips in the LP. Can risk a (!) in the SP.

 

[Amei]

I wouldn't have her do a quad combo in the bonus section. My layouts for Trusova are:

SP:
3A
3F
spin
3Lz+3Lo x
spin
step sequence
spin

LP:
4S
4Lz
3A
4T+3T
spin
4T x
chsq
3Lz+1Lo+3S x
3Lz+3Lo x
spin
step sequence
spin

No Flips in the LP. Can risk a (!) in the SP.

The 4S was generally her problem jump last season with either falls or pops; I think a better layout for her FS would be to do 2 4Lz jumps, and the 4T combination backloaded - she does have to back-load that 4T combination because it's a lower scored quad, internationally she scored lower on the 4T+eu+3S back-loaded combination than Shcherbakova's 4Lz+3T.

 

[jenaj]

She can't repeat three jumps like this.

Which 3 jumps is she repeating?

 

[Fool]

4Lz, 3Lo and 3lz

ETA: Sorry @jenaj idk why your post didn't show up as a quote.

 

[jenaj]

I think that as soon as Sasha recovers from the injury that bothered her at the Russian Championship, she will return to two 4T + one 4Lz. Two 4Lz are of great value, but also a greater risk for Sasha.
It will be interesting to see the judging of international judges on which any major tournament. Only this can be the basis for any serious assumptions.

4Lz, 3Lo and 3lz

ETA: Sorry @jenaj idk why your post didn't show up as a quote.

4Lz, 3Lo and 3lz

ETA: Sorry @jenaj idk why your post didn't show up as a quote.

Just 2 of each (one, at least, in combo), so it’s ok.

 

[Dawn825]

Yes. The "reduction for errors" are listed in the PDF.
https://www.isu.org/media-centre/press-releases/2018-8/18119-new-grade-of-execution-2018-final/file

Yes for which? Sorry if I'm being slow but I still don't get it. If a skater has great height (+1) but a 2 footed landing (-3), are they supposed to get -3 or -2?

 

[rollerblade]

You add up the positives and subtract the negatives?

There are the bullets for positive GOE consideration:

1. very good height and distance
2. good take-off and landing
3. effortless throughout (including rhythm in a combination or sequence)
4. steps into a jump, unexpected or creative entry
5. very good body position from take-off to landing
6. element matches the music

+1 GOE per bullet. However, to qualify for +4/+5 GOE, the skater must fulfill bullets #1, #2 & #3.

In your instance, the jump has great height, so YES on bullet #1. Since you didn't give a description on the other aspects of the jump... we can't grade bullets #3 to #6. NO on bullet #2 due to two-foot landing. Regardless, this jump maxed at +3 GOE, before reduction.

Then you apply the reduction. According to the article, judges reduce the GOE depending on how big the error is. This is a judgement call depending on how the judges view the particular two-foot. Some are slight taps, while others are quite blatant. On paper, a wrong edge is penalized as much as a two-foot. In reality? Probably not.

It would be easier if you submit a video of the jump in question.

Speaking of video... ISU released this back in summer 2018. They include video examples of all elements, including Choreo Sequence.