Will Mirai Appeal Decision for Olympic Team?

[Kelisiting]

I don't think Mirai is going to be able to reverse the decision for the Olympic team. But she would be better off trying to appeal that Polina has no senior international experience. Based on the committee's decision to send Ashley because of her international experience, she should appeal that Polina has no senior international experience to date. Mirai's senior international experience spans four years with a few highlights.

 

[Olympia]

I have to wonder if Mirai fans really think Mirai would have done better at the JGPF. I suspect the USFSA looks at those young Russian Juniors, and the last think is what poor competition. Rather they are thinking , we are going to have to find kids who can compete with them, otherwise we are looking at another four years of little international success.

Given the technical level of that field, they were thrilled with Polina's result. They'd happily take the lot of those Russian Juniors of Russia's hands if Russia would give them up.

I think this is the main reason (or certainly a key reason) that the committee has chosen Polina over Mirai. They have been anxious for at least the last three years about the "baby ballerina" generation of Russian skaters (and with good reason!), and they want to start building America's own generation of skaters to stand against them. I think it's strategically important to let Polina out into the world as soon as possible, though it is a risk considering her limited senior experience. They see that she is cool and steady in terms of temperament (at least she is at the moment), so they might be calculating that she will seize the Sochi opportunity for all it's worth. Mirai, who was in her time a baby ballerina, did not live up to her huge potential, and at this point in her career she does not embody the future of American skating. Neither does Ashley. Gracie does (we hope!), but we also need someone who is just bursting onto the scene in order to imply that American skaters are part of a never-ending stream of excellence.

 

[brightphoton]

Yes, those baby Russian ballerinas do look like they're going to take over. But gee, refresh my memory, how did those very promising little Russians do at the last World championships -- did they do well enough to get Russia 3 spots for the Olympics?

 

[lavender]

If this had been some one else, say Agnes who many of you hate, would you care? Or do you care just because it is your favorite?

Who hates Agnes. People are just not into her skating and don't understand the inflation she has had in the past...that's not hate.

 

[leafygreens]

Polina won two JGP events.

Only the JGP Final is a selection criteria. Polina could have won 15 JGP events and it doesn't count under the criteria.

 

[Layfan]

I think this is the main reason (or certainly a key reason) that the committee has chosen Polina over Mirai. They have been anxious for at least the last three years about the "baby ballerina" generation of Russian skaters (and with good reason!), and they want to start building America's own generation of skaters to stand against them. I think it's strategically important to let Polina out into the world as soon as possible, though it is a risk considering her limited senior experience. They see that she is cool and steady in terms of temperament (at least she is at the moment), so they might be calculating that she will seize the Sochi opportunity for all it's worth. Mirai, who was in her time a baby ballerina, did not live up to her huge potential, and at this point in her career she does not embody the future of American skating. Neither does Ashley. Gracie does (we hope!), but we also need someone who is just bursting onto the scene in order to imply that American skaters are part of a never-ending stream of excellence.

I completely agree, Olympia. Everyone (almost) is a risk their first time at senior worlds/Olympics but you have to start sometime. I feel great about Polina being on the world and Olympic team. She was terrific at nationals, even if she wasn't perfect, and she wholly earned her spot on the USA nationals team. Polina deserves her experience at senior worlds. I feel terrible about Mirai not getting on the team and I also feel terrible that Ashley didn't get on the way she imagined getting on after all her years of hard work. I like both of those skaters and I hope Ashley does well at the Olympics and that Mirai continues fighting. But the one thing I can feel good about coming out of nationals is that USA has two promising skaters in Gracie and Polina and hopefully it will be exciting to watch them.

 

[meteorlight8]

So not medaling and losing to Russians is "choking when it counted" but beating Mirai at Nationals counts for nothing? All of you anti-Polina and or anti-Ashley fans are really cherry-picking your arguments for sending Mirai.

Okay first of all, I am actually a fan of Polina (and I was glad she made a great comeback at jgpf in the FS). My response there is because you used her 2 JGP wins as evidence of her skating lights out on the Jr circuit in response to another poster, and I just wanted to point out that she hasn't been consistent all season on the jr circuit, and while winning 2 JGPs is great and she had a respectable result at JGPF, it's not what I'd call "lights out."

In terms of the overall situation, I'm actually okay with the Olympic team selection, even though I think the USFSA is applying one standard to dump Mirai for Ashley and a different standard to hold up Polina over Mirai. It's the Worlds team selection that really pisses me off. They should've just sent Polina to Jr Worlds and given Mirai the spot, especially as they are giving the bronze medalists in other disciplines the worlds berth.

 

[caseyl23]

I don't know how exactly U.S. figure skating determined this year's Olympic team, but I was playing around with some numbers last night, and knowing these skaters' results over the past couple seasons, the more Nationals counted toward the selection process, the worse Mirai's chances of being in the top three were, because Nationals counting heavily allows Polina to overcome her lack of other results. Maybe ironically, Mirai had to hope Nationals did not figure heavily into the selection process, because then her experience then comes into play and allows her to trump Polina.
If USFSA had any kind of objective ranking system, it does appear Ashley's status was secure. I figured the least Nationals could count for in a rankings system and still be USFSA's number one criteria was 16 percent, and the most was 72 percent, and although I'm sure a ranking system exists to make it possible, I couldn't easily find one that bumps her from the top three. In fact, given the ladies' results, I tried six different scenarios, and none of them bumped her from the top two.
Mirai's hope for making the Olympic team would appear (objectively) for Nationals to have counted as about 25-49 percent of the selection criteria. If it counts for more, Polina leap-frogs her, and if it counts for much less, there are scenarios where, believe it or not, Samantha Cesario could have jumped ahead of her into third.
Again, I have no idea how the USFSA made its decision, but it appears Mirai's chances of making the Olympics were longer than I initially thought.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Again, I have no idea how the USFSA made its decision, but it appears Mirai's chances of making the Olympics were longer than I initially thought.

Based on what we saw, rather than what is stated in the rules, this is my impression of how it works:

The "body of work" is considered only when it is substantially superior to peers. In Ashley's case, as well as D&W, the results as the best by a significant margin. Gracie, our other standout skater, has never beaten Ashley before this weekend, had a lower placement at Worlds, and has not won a GP event, while Ashley has won 3 in the last two years. You obviously can't compare Ashley's record to Yuna, but still she was clearly the top American coming in to nationals.

For the remaining spots, it appears only Nationals results is considered.

 

[leafygreens]

For the remaining spots, it appears only Nationals results is considered.

That's what is so unfair. All the top five athletes should have their results considered, not a special case made for Ashley. If all five are considered, then Mirai bumps Polina. It's so political it's sickening.

 

[caseyl23]

That's what is so unfair. All the top five athletes should have their results considered, not a special case made for Ashley. If all five are considered, then Mirai bumps Polina. It's so political it's sickening.

Not necessarily – please see my post above, which drivingmissdaisy quoted. Mirai only bumps Polina if Nationals counts for about 25-49 percent of the criteria. 50 percent or higher (depending on how other events were weighted) was the point where Polina started coming out in front. In the scenario where Nationals counted the least, it was possible for other skaters to come out ahead of Mirai – in the stingiest scenario, in which Nationals only counts for 16 percent of the judging, and the last-place criteria counts for nine percent, Polina comes in last of the top six at Nationals, but Mirai is only fifth, Courtney fourth and Samantha becomes the third-place finisher. Ashley does not seem to be in doubt – in the six scenarios I figured (There are of course, many more possibilities than that.), she never did worse than second-best. Applying the USFSA's formula, she seems to be safe.

 

[leafygreens]

Not necessarily – please see my post above, which drivingmissdaisy quoted. Mirai only bumps Polina if Nationals counts for about 25-49 percent of the criteria. 50 percent or higher (depending on how other events were weighted) was the point where Polina started coming out in front. In the scenario where Nationals counted the least, it was possible for other skaters to come out ahead of Mirai – in the stingiest scenario, in which Nationals only counts for 16 percent of the judging, and the last-place criteria counts for nine percent, Polina comes in last of the top six at Nationals, but Mirai is only fifth, Courtney fourth and Samantha becomes the third-place finisher. Ashley does not seem to be in doubt – in the six scenarios I figured (There are of course, many more possibilities than that.), she never did worse than second-best. Applying the USFSA's formula, she seems to be safe.

How did you rank Mirai's 3rd/8th place Senior GP and 7th place 2013 nationals against Polina's 4th place Jr GPF? (These are the only results allowed under the selection criteria.)

We don't know what percent USFS ranked anything, because they won't tell us. Until they do, it can only be assumed as corrupt.

 

[Mathman]

I think it goes like this. First, second and third at nationals go to the Olympics as always -- except in the case of a "dominant skater" who has a realistic chance of medaling. That is why Denney and Coughlin did not get any special favors. Although they have a stronger international record than Zhang and Bartholomay, neither team is going to win anything at Sochi. Same with Max Aaron.

The USFSA -- rightly or wrongly, we'll see -- has put Ashley in this special class, jumping her ahead pf Mirai and Polina. That decision having been made, Polina finished higher than Mirai at nationals, neither is a threat to medal, that's that.

 

[Skater Boy]

Only the JGP Final is a selection criteria. Polina could have won 15 JGP events and it doesn't count under the criteria.

Are you sure I thought it included at JGP events - take a look again because i saw on some post it counted.

 

[leafygreens]

Only the JGP Final counts. It is the last thing on the selection criteria. No other Junior events have any weight in the selection.

 

[coolboogie22]

http://www.change.org/petitions/u-s...-patricia-st-peter-send-mirai-nagasu-to-sochi

 

[FlattFan]

Are you sure I thought it included at JGP events - take a look again because i saw on some post it counted.

Stop speaking when you know nothing.

 

[Layfan]

Maybe the title of this thread should be changed. If I understand correctly, Mirai hasn't appealed, as the title implies, and it doesn't look like she is going to.

 

[chuckm]

Only the JGP Final is a selection criteria. Polina could have won 15 JGP events and it doesn't count under the criteria.

Wrong. JGP and GP results are also part of the criteria. Polina had two JGP golds and ranked 2nd of the 134 ladies who competed in the JGP; she was the second highest qualifier for the JGPF. Polina was 4th at the JGPF but she did finish 2nd in the FS. Nagasu had an 8th place and a 3rd place in the GP and ranked 12th of 31 ladies who competed in the GP this year; she did not qualify for the GPF. Ashley ranked #3, and of course made the GPF and medaled.

Results from 2013 Nationals is also among the criteria. Polina's 2013 Junior Championship looks a lot better than Nagasu's 7th place (for a 2nd year in a row). Wagner won 2013 Nationals, her second win in a row.

 

[chuckm]

Mirai has decided NOT to appeal. It's probably smart on her part because she'd be burning all her bridges if she did, and ending her skating career.