Will Mirai Appeal Decision for Olympic Team?
- Thread starter Snapper
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Here's my methodology, since you asked:
For the top six skaters, I put all their international results into a chart, listing the criteria in the order given in the USFSA communication from last year – Nationals first, then 2013 Grand Prix Final, 2013 Worlds, 2013 Grand Prix events, 2013 Four Continents, 2013 Nationals, 2013 Junior Worlds and 2013 Junior Grand Prix Final. I included the top six, because I wanted to see if there were any scenarios where Samantha Cesario or Courtney Hicks might have a case for being picked for the Olympics.
The biggest dilemma came from not everyone competing in all the events listed. In fact, of the eight, the only one all six ladies competed in was this year's Nationals. For events where a skater did not compete, I assigned her a value of 11.
That seemed like a safe number, because the lowest anyone placed in any of the competitions used was 8th, and each Grand Prix event allows for 10 skaters. For the Grand Prix, I counted two placements for every skater – for example, since Mirai placed 8th and 3rd in her two events, 8 and 3 were placed in her two spots. For Polina, two 11s were entered. For Courtney Hicks, who only skated one event, a 6 and an 11 were entered. In the end, every skater was assigned a number for each event – either her placement, or an 11 if she did not compete.
After that, I started playing with percentages for each event. For example, in the scenario where Nationals counted for the most, I determined what was the least the other events could be weighted at – 1 percent for the least prioritized event, then 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 percent. Add those numbers together, and I figured at most, in an objective ranking formula, Nationals could count for 72 percent of a skater's score (100 - [1+2+3+4+5+6+7=28] =72). So, each skater's national placement was taken times 0.72, her Grand Prix final placement was multiplied by .07, Worlds placements were taken times .06, etc.
For the Grand Prix events, I took each placement times their assigned value – in this particular case, 0.05, and then averaged those figures. For example, Mirai's 8th and third place finishes converted to 0.40+0.15=0.55, divided by two for a final number of 0.28. (I rounded to the nearest hundredth.) For Polina, her scores converted to 0.55+0.55=1.10, divided by two for a final of 0.55.
Once all those values were assigned, I added the figures together, for each skater's final score. In this chart, the standings came out as follows: Gracie Gold (2.66), Ashley Wagner (4.27), Polina Edmunds (4.45), Mirai Nagasu (4.85), Samantha Cesario (6.13) and Courtney Hicks (7.06).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the one where Nationals count for the smallest possible percentage while still being the top criteria, the standings (and numbers) for the skaters were as follows: Ashley Wagner (5.61), Gracie Gold (6.24), Samantha Cesario (8.17), Courtney Hicks (8.51), Mirai Nagasu (8.65) and Polina Edmunds (9.03).
Of course, all of this comes with disclaimer from earlier, that I have no idea if the USFSA used any kind of objective criteria or not. I just did it as a personal exercise to see if it was possible to use some kind of ranking and come up with the Olympic team the USFSA did, using the criteria it listed. Mathematically, it does appear entirely possible.
For the top six skaters, I put all their international results into a chart, listing the criteria in the order given in the USFSA communication from last year – Nationals first, then 2013 Grand Prix Final, 2013 Worlds, 2013 Grand Prix events, 2013 Four Continents, 2013 Nationals, 2013 Junior Worlds and 2013 Junior Grand Prix Final. I included the top six, because I wanted to see if there were any scenarios where Samantha Cesario or Courtney Hicks might have a case for being picked for the Olympics.
The biggest dilemma came from not everyone competing in all the events listed. In fact, of the eight, the only one all six ladies competed in was this year's Nationals. For events where a skater did not compete, I assigned her a value of 11.
That seemed like a safe number, because the lowest anyone placed in any of the competitions used was 8th, and each Grand Prix event allows for 10 skaters. For the Grand Prix, I counted two placements for every skater – for example, since Mirai placed 8th and 3rd in her two events, 8 and 3 were placed in her two spots. For Polina, two 11s were entered. For Courtney Hicks, who only skated one event, a 6 and an 11 were entered. In the end, every skater was assigned a number for each event – either her placement, or an 11 if she did not compete.
After that, I started playing with percentages for each event. For example, in the scenario where Nationals counted for the most, I determined what was the least the other events could be weighted at – 1 percent for the least prioritized event, then 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 percent. Add those numbers together, and I figured at most, in an objective ranking formula, Nationals could count for 72 percent of a skater's score (100 - [1+2+3+4+5+6+7=28] =72). So, each skater's national placement was taken times 0.72, her Grand Prix final placement was multiplied by .07, Worlds placements were taken times .06, etc.
For the Grand Prix events, I took each placement times their assigned value – in this particular case, 0.05, and then averaged those figures. For example, Mirai's 8th and third place finishes converted to 0.40+0.15=0.55, divided by two for a final number of 0.28. (I rounded to the nearest hundredth.) For Polina, her scores converted to 0.55+0.55=1.10, divided by two for a final of 0.55.
Once all those values were assigned, I added the figures together, for each skater's final score. In this chart, the standings came out as follows: Gracie Gold (2.66), Ashley Wagner (4.27), Polina Edmunds (4.45), Mirai Nagasu (4.85), Samantha Cesario (6.13) and Courtney Hicks (7.06).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the one where Nationals count for the smallest possible percentage while still being the top criteria, the standings (and numbers) for the skaters were as follows: Ashley Wagner (5.61), Gracie Gold (6.24), Samantha Cesario (8.17), Courtney Hicks (8.51), Mirai Nagasu (8.65) and Polina Edmunds (9.03).
Of course, all of this comes with disclaimer from earlier, that I have no idea if the USFSA used any kind of objective criteria or not. I just did it as a personal exercise to see if it was possible to use some kind of ranking and come up with the Olympic team the USFSA did, using the criteria it listed. Mathematically, it does appear entirely possible.
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- Jan 23, 2009
Damn straight she should. Btw the controversy has made the DailyMail. Just as I predicted, the general population sees it as racism in addition to the corrupt judging and cheating that figure skating has always embodied.
Seriously, body of work from 2 years ago?
2 years ago, Ashley couldn't even get on the World podium in a weak field.
1 year ago, impossible.
This time, also impossible to get the bronze with her "choked in big event" history.
Mirai's body of work is 4th at the Olympics. Why not count 4 years ago?
Her team has a lot to argue about
1. If the use body of work, then Polina Edmunds and Z/B will stay home. D/C won 2 years ago.
2. If they use merit, then Wagner stay home. Max, D/C will stay home for World.
I believe there are a lot of ground to argue. A lot of explanations as to why Agnes' PCS went from 60 to 55, why Jason Brown's PCS went from 80 to 93 for a slightly worse skate than his TEB. Why all of that. It will be a nightmare for the Federation to come up with reason. Call the judges in, ask them if there was any pressure to place certain skaters. It will be firework.
2 years ago, Ashley couldn't even get on the World podium in a weak field.
1 year ago, impossible.
This time, also impossible to get the bronze with her "choked in big event" history.
Mirai's body of work is 4th at the Olympics. Why not count 4 years ago?
Her team has a lot to argue about
1. If the use body of work, then Polina Edmunds and Z/B will stay home. D/C won 2 years ago.
2. If they use merit, then Wagner stay home. Max, D/C will stay home for World.
I believe there are a lot of ground to argue. A lot of explanations as to why Agnes' PCS went from 60 to 55, why Jason Brown's PCS went from 80 to 93 for a slightly worse skate than his TEB. Why all of that. It will be a nightmare for the Federation to come up with reason. Call the judges in, ask them if there was any pressure to place certain skaters. It will be firework.
and im sure the usfsa didnt mince words when talking to her: you think this was bad? wait until you see your skating career if you appeal this - and then subsequently snubbed her for worlds after she agrees not to appeal to ensure she got the message loud and clear
- Joined
- May 4, 2013
As I've been told many times in other matters, "there's a lot going on behind closed curtains"...
I wouldn't be surprised if Mirai's phone call with Johnny Weir was shortly after she had been told that she wouldn't even be sent to Worlds.
I'd have found it ok for the USFSA to say: "we send Mirai to Worlds plus the top 2 finishers from Sochi".
Given Aaron finished 3rd at USN and will be among the 2 men at worlds; D/C finished 3rd at USN and will be among the 2 pairs at worlds; Mirai finished 3rd at USN and won't be among the 3 ladies at worlds. That's borderline aggressive towards her.
Who knows, maybe the fact that apparently Mirai won't appeal has to do with some kind of deal they made, involving some lady "graciously stepping back to allow Mirai her Worlds experience"?
I wouldn't be surprised if Mirai's phone call with Johnny Weir was shortly after she had been told that she wouldn't even be sent to Worlds.
I'd have found it ok for the USFSA to say: "we send Mirai to Worlds plus the top 2 finishers from Sochi".
Given Aaron finished 3rd at USN and will be among the 2 men at worlds; D/C finished 3rd at USN and will be among the 2 pairs at worlds; Mirai finished 3rd at USN and won't be among the 3 ladies at worlds. That's borderline aggressive towards her.
Who knows, maybe the fact that apparently Mirai won't appeal has to do with some kind of deal they made, involving some lady "graciously stepping back to allow Mirai her Worlds experience"?
How many times did you hear the Olympics spot is on the line during the broadcast, the pre-event, the event, US Federation's own site?
If they've already decided Ashley is going, then that's false pretense. Seriously, Mirai should look into legal options.
If they've already decided Ashley is going, then that's false pretense. Seriously, Mirai should look into legal options.
They do this of course to generate interest and suspense and draw in fans who only tune in every four years. In my mind, it makes less suspenseful, less interesting and less competitive if there are certain skaters who can have mediocre or even bad performances and still win the biggest prize of the event. But they've chosen to go this route and so we'll just have to see how it works out for them.
I think Mirai has been gracious and should keep being gracious about it and concentrate on her skating. I know it's way easier said than done but I see this as her best possible path.
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- Jan 10, 2014
No doubt with a statement like that, you are too young to remember Debbie Thomas. One of the best ever to step onto the ice.
It is easier said than done, but I hope she stops being a girl, grows a pair, and stands up for herself.
Her bridges have been burned the past four years (due to her own inconsistency) Even if she does well, they wouldn't give a crap. So what bridges left for Mirai to burn?
No doubt you have no idea that it's ok to make fun of Asians.
No doubt an organization can't be racist now because it wasn't racist 25 years ago.
No doubt.
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2011
Btw the controversy has made the DailyMail. Just as I predicted, the general population sees it as racism in addition to the corrupt judging and cheating that figure skating has always embodied.
the Dailymail ? seriously ?
any links please
Legal options won't work. USFS published their selection criteria BEFORE Nationals and made it clear that Nationals were NOT the only basis on which the Olympic team would be selected; past results would be considered as well, and these were listed.
I don't know if Mirai even knew about the selection criteria. She probably didn't realize that her past results weren't an asset, and she might have to win the championship to be assured of making the team. If she had had a coach, her coach might have given her a bit more perspective on her chances.
But ignorance of the rules is not grounds for a lawsuit, and it costs $$$$ that Mirai doesn't have to pursue a legal option that would end up going nowhere.
I don't know if Mirai even knew about the selection criteria. She probably didn't realize that her past results weren't an asset, and she might have to win the championship to be assured of making the team. If she had had a coach, her coach might have given her a bit more perspective on her chances.
But ignorance of the rules is not grounds for a lawsuit, and it costs $$$$ that Mirai doesn't have to pursue a legal option that would end up going nowhere.
I don't know if you are serious, but there are no grounds for her to sue, even if discrimination were an issue (which it is not). She isn't employed by the USFSA. The anti-discrimination statutes don't apply to a sports federation's selection of Olympic team members.
As for Mirai, I think it was wrong for her to be left off of the World team. If this had not been an Olympic year, I think she almost certainly would have been on the team. And with the emergence of the new Gracie, they didn't need Ashley that much to secure three spots, especially given the likely retirement of the top skaters before this year's Worlds.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Wow... rage mode, eh? Playing the race card is pretty classless. If they were racist, would they have sent Mirai in 2010?
Also, Madison Chock's father is Hawaiian-Chinese.
Also, Felicia Zhang is Asian, and her and Bartholomay were sent in favour of D/C, even though many would have expect D/C to go based on their performances in the past 2 years.
Maybe I'm hopelessly naïve, but I don't think this is the case. I insist that IF Mirai does well next season and medals at nationals, she will be on the world team - her first world team in years. It's plain as day that USFA has lost confidence in Mirai after many years of disappointing performances. But that's not the same as burning bridges. If I were her, I would concentrate on finding a good coach and training. That's actually the tougher road to take than concentrating on the past.
I say this because Mirai is after all still just 20. Alyssa stuck it out a few more years after her career seemed over and she ended up winning another national championship and even a GPF final. She didn't medal at worlds, but her career still shone a bit brighter with those accomplishments. And it made it worth it for the fans who kept routing for her. Ashley was another one who stuck it out when some though her best days were behind her and she racked up two national titles and is now on the Olympics team. The road ahead is long and hard for Mirai if she wants to keep competing but it's not impossible.
Don't matter. If you advertise it as Nationals is the basis for Olympic team. The Olympics spot is on the line here. Then there's basis for a lawsuit.
You can sue for anything, remember the lady suing McDonald for not putting "hot" on the label of her coffee cup.
You can't sue "for anything." The woman who sued McDonald's was suing for personal injury. There is no cause of action for not being selected to the Olympics that I am aware of. Just what cause of action would you pick for her? Mirai wasn't employed by the USFSA, she didn't have a contract with them, she wasn't injured physically, they didn't defame her. Frivolous lawsuits are subject to sanctions, by the way.
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- Jan 23, 2009
The last time I posted a news link it directed my post to the announcement forum, what's up with that that? But if you type "Fury as star figure skater who fell TWICE at Olympic qualifiers and came fourth is chosen for Team USA ahead of woman who came third" into Google you'll find the article
and the mcdonalds lady had her thigh melt partially
it was really bad
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- Oct 25, 2012
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Btw the controversy has made the DailyMail. Just as I predicted, the general population sees it as racism in addition to the corrupt judging and cheating that figure skating has always embodied.
travelbug posted about the Daily Mail article in a thread about the Team Announcements with a name too long to repeat here in the American Nationals sub-forum.
But be warned, the Daily Mail always has it's own agenda!
(By the way, if you want to read my own viewpoint on the controversy, scroll down a bit from travelbug's post to this post, and then onto the next page for this post).
Hope this helps
CaroLiza_fan
