Your best bet for the Russian Olympic ladies team

[Fluture]

Kamila, Anna, Liza. In that order.

Sasha has a shot if she‘s healed enough and performs exceptionally well at Nationals. Other than her, I can‘t see anybody else making it at this point, barring injury. The scoring‘s been very indicative of who the favorites are this season.

 

[bostonskaterguy86]

My prediction is that the Russian Women Olympic Team will be:

• Kamila Valieva (skates LP in the Team Event)
• Liza Tuktamysheva (skates SP in the Team Event)
• Anna Shcherbakova

I agree, and I'm glad you brought up the team event. I think that given Russia has the best shot at a podium sweep in women's, they'll likely choose that as a discipline to split in the team event, to decrease the likelihood of injury (and god knows they've had enough trouble with injuries this season).

Liza is an extremely strong short program skater with a very consistent 3A, and has yet to score under 80 in the short this season. While I think any of the Russian women currently in the conversation is likely to be able to pull off a win in the team event short program, Liza seems like the strongest bet. Without consistent 3As, Anna, Sasha, Aliona and Maiia could be vulnerable to a surprise upset - either from falling on a 3A and taking a hit on their score, or from another woman hitting their 3A and sneaking past on the higher BV. That probably would not be enough to put Russia in jeopardy of losing the team gold, especially with Kamila skating the free - but why take the risk?

I'd be thrilled if Sasha comes back from this injury and makes her case at Nationals - but I think unless Liza has a particularly bad showing at either GPF or Nationals (or both), the strategic value of having her available for the team short program is definitely a mark in her favor over the rest of the field.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

That's a great point about Liza - she is extremely solid in the SP. I'm just so impressed by how consistent she has been this season. Of all the Russian skaters, her events are the biggest minefield, because she constantly has to prove being better than others and building her case. Unless she absolutely bombs Russian Nationals, she really does deserve to make the Olympic team, IMO. Valieva is essentially a lock at this point (Russia would be crazy not to send her), and IMO, it's Anna fighting Liza for 2nd place, and Trusova would have to skate lights out at Nationals/Euros to be in the conversation for the 3rd spot. Khromykh is out of it IMO (unless she is near-clean in both segments at the GPF/Russian Nats/Euros). She had a good FS at Rostelcom, but her SP has been a struggle, and the judges outside of Russia aren't going to give her the PCS the others are getting. At this point I also don't see Kostornaia making the team, unless she gets her triple axel back by the GPF, and defeats Liza there and at Nats/Euros.

 

[Matthew]

I don’t believe this article is true. There is too much that remains to be seen. Specifically, the GP Finals and Russians Nationals need to take place. I think the reason why this threesome is intriguing to many is because his team will have a little bit of everything.

1) Kamila - The up and comer coming from Juniors
2) Anna - One of 3A, showing that you can be competitive in Seniors for three consecutive seasons
3) Elizaveta - A former World Champion, conveying that a woman in her 20s can still be competitive in this sport

This team seems to have a balance of everything and these three keep proving themselves at every event, so far. So, I can see why Russia has these three as the favourites. However, Trusova, Aliona and Maia are hungry and out for blood in the next two events. So, a lot can happen. Let the best athlete win.

Ähm, strange reasoning which you are offering, here, "former World Champion etc. pp.". The one and only criterion is the actual fitness, quality and consistency, of course, with other words: the scores gained this season. These three are simply the best female Russian skaters, this season.

 

[silveruskate]

I highly doubt Kamila Valieva will be made to skate the FS for the team event. At the very least she or her coaches will get to choose. She will win the SP, Anna will win the FS and then the 3rd skater is Liza or Sasha (very outside chance to Maiia and Aliona).

 

[[email protected]]

I can argue that if Kamila is healthy they won't send her to the team event. Then it will be Liza for SP, Anna for FP, and Kamila for individual competition. That's how Russia will have 3 OGM winners and Liza can retire with the "full house" of medals. Of course, things can happen. Rika suddenly can show up, healthy and hungry. Then Liza won't make for the team event as it will take Kamila and Anna to safeguard 1st places both in SP and FP.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I can argue that if Kamila is healthy they won't send her to the team event.

I'm sure Kamila would prefer to have two OGMs instead of just one.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

After watching Liza’s LP again, I don’t think they’ll send her over Sasha if Sasha is healthy. I like Liza- but her scores are too high for what she shows on the ice.

However you feel about Liza's scores, the fact is she is getting those marks from international judges. I feel like the selection will be (and should be) who is most likely to beat everyone else outside of Russia, not who has the highest potential score. Anna and Liza have been the most consistent in delivering high scores that are out of reach for almost anyone else who will be at the Olympics.

 

[Amei]

Regarding performing in the team event either Tuktamysheva or Valieva for the SP because they have the triple axel and Shcherbakova for the FS - assuming those 3 are the Olympic team.
Valieva is doing 3 quads and a triple axel to win the FS, Shcherbakova can pretty easily win the FS with 1-2 quads, thus is risking less. Tuktamysheva doesn't make sense for the FS over Shcherbakova because Shcherbakova has a higher BV with a fewer number of risky elements - Shcherbakova at IDF where she is missing an entire jumping element
outscored Tuktamysheva in the FS segment for both of Tuktamysheva's GP events.

 

[Dreamer57]

Scherbakova is 80% lock. She is the most decorated Russian skater now title wise. She has proven that she is reliable - that's important for the team event.

I am confused as to how Anna is the most decorated title wise? Aliona is still the reigning GPF and euros champion. In terms of GP titles Liza has the most (plus worlds, euro & GPF titles)

I also believe that Kamila is certain to do the team event. I didn't think that the Fed particularly wanted 3 OGMs - pretty sure that Alina and Evgenia participated in Pyeongchang and Maria was left out.

 

[Dawn825]

I can argue that if Kamila is healthy they won't send her to the team event. Then it will be Liza for SP, Anna for FP, and Kamila for individual competition. That's how Russia will have 3 OGM winners and Liza can retire with the "full house" of medals. Of course, things can happen. Rika suddenly can show up, healthy and hungry. Then Liza won't make for the team event as it will take Kamila and Anna to safeguard 1st places both in SP and FP.

Thats a nice idea but unlikely. Kamila will do part of the team event.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Thats a nice idea but unlikely. Kamila will do part of the team event.

100% Kamila is doing the team event (although in the vein of Lipnitskaia I don't think it's wise to have her do both). Given the dominance of the Russian women, that will be one of the disciplines where they have different SP and FS skaters. I'm guessing only one Russian man (likely Kolyada) in the team event.

I'm wishing Russia chooses ice dance instead of pairs, and Stepanova/Bukin get a team medal after Bukin wasn't able to go to the last Olympics. But Russia will probably go all out and put it both of their top 2 pairs, especially since they have lots of time to recuperate and give them the best shot at a maximum team score since any Russian pair would beat the Americans and Canadians whereas S/B could lose to C/B or H/D or G/P.

If she goes to the Olympics, Tuktamysheva should do the team SP, IMO - she's the only one currently with a consistent triple axel other than Valieva, which would all but cement her top spot - and the worst of it is a stepout. And she's just so confident and a veteran. Valieva I'm betting will do the FS, giving her a pressure-free warmup to the individual event. If Anna pulls 80+ in her next few comps, I can see the Russian fed going with her, but SP wise Liza's the better bet.

As far as storyline of the Russian Olympic team goes I think Trusova has a story/place on the Russian team - as the one who essentially broke the system by being the first to land the quad flip, lutz, and toe (and first to land 4 quads in a program). Russia loves to show their dominance and while Trusova's skating has much to be desired, the thought of Trusova landing 5 quads would be a compelling story.

 

[[email protected]]

I am confused as to how Anna is the most decorated title wise? Aliona is still the reigning GPF and euros champion. In terms of GP titles Liza has the most (plus worlds, euro & GPF titles)

I also believe that Kamila is certain to do the team event. I didn't think that the Fed particularly wanted 3 OGMs - pretty sure that Alina and Evgenia participated in Pyeongchang and Maria was left out.

GPF and Euros were 2 seasons ago and are hardly relevant now. Two most recent big events are the Worlds and Rusnats. Anna won both.

 

[silveruskate]

100% Kamila is doing the team event (although in the vein of Lipnitskaia I don't think it's wise to have her do both). Given the dominance of the Russian women, that will be one of the disciplines where they have different SP and FS skaters. I'm guessing only one Russian man (likely Kolyada) in the team event.

I'm wishing Russia chooses ice dance instead of pairs, and Stepanova/Bukin get a team medal after Bukin wasn't able to go to the last Olympics. But Russia will probably go all out and put it both of their top 2 pairs, especially since they have lots of time to recuperate and give them the best shot at a maximum team score since any Russian pair would beat the Americans and Canadians whereas S/B could lose to C/B or H/D or G/P.

If she goes to the Olympics, Tuktamysheva should do the team SP, IMO - she's the only one currently with a consistent triple axel other than Valieva, which would all but cement her top spot - and the worst of it is a stepout. And she's just so confident and a veteran. Valieva I'm betting will do the FS, giving her a pressure-free warmup to the individual event. If Anna pulls 80+ in her next few comps, I can see the Russian fed going with her, but SP wise Liza's the better bet.

As far as storyline of the Russian Olympic team goes I think Trusova has a story/place on the Russian team - as the one who essentially broke the system by being the first to land the quad flip, lutz, and toe (and first to land 4 quads in a program). Russia loves to show their dominance and while Trusova's skating has much to be desired, the thought of Trusova landing 5 quads would be a compelling story.

If Valieva wins nationals I think Eteri will get to choose. She would make Valieva do the SP if Liza otherwise would be chosen over Anna. It all still heavily relies on Nationals placements.

 

[Imagine]

People kept saying anything can happen, and now with the potential cancellation of the GPF, it seems that the “anything” has arrived. From here on out, it’ll just be a game of Russian roulette…who’s going to be in peak shape…who’s going to injure themselves…who’s going to catch the virus…who’s going to be stuck in quarantine purgatory…who’s going to stick it out if the Olympics are postponed…

Much anxiety ahead…

OR everything will go ahead as expected…Kamila, Liza, and Anna will go to Beijing and curb-stomp the competition…and it’ll all be a very predictable experience. But surely the universe won’t be kind enough to allow for that…much too boring for its tastes these days.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If Valieva wins nationals I think Eteri will get to choose. She would make Valieva do the SP if Liza otherwise would be chosen over Anna. It all still heavily relies on Nationals placements.

Sure, but Tuktamysheva still currently has a huge advantage over the non-Russians with two triple axels, so she'd probably be able to handle the FS too. I think Russia's fed would ultimately decide who competes in which segment of the team event. Eteri might have some sway but there are other politics involved. Mishin is still hugely respected and has a lot of sway. Everyone knows Eteri's top dog in Russia as far as coaching goes, but for optics and fairness they can't let her skaters have the whole pie if other skaters are worthy, safe bets for the team event. It's a way better story for Tuktamysheva to get the team medal than Anna, and Liza is earning it.

I can also see a scenario where Kamila is left out of the team event and Liza takes the SP and Anna the FS - after all, they are the reigning World silver and gold medalists.

This way (assuming Russia wins team, which they likely will) -- Liza gets a gold (and likely an individual medal that isn't gold), Anna gets a gold (and likely an individual medal that isn't gold), and Kamila gets the individual gold (which is the key prize) and everyone is happy.

 

[lurkerghost1]

For sure they will let Kamila skate the short if she wants to. No one can get close to Anna in the free so they don't need Kamila there, but Wakaba or Rika could in theory beat Liza in the short although it's quite unlikely. So Kamila should really do the short. Liza is my favorite of the three but it makes no sense to put her in the team event unless she somehow beats Shcherbakova at nationals or Euros which is unlikely.

Men's SP: Kolyada
Men's FS: Kolyada
Women's SP: Valieva
Women's FP: Shcherbakova
Pairs SP: Tarasova/Morozov
Pairs FS: Mishina/Galliamov
Ice Dance RD: Sinitsina/Katsalapov
Ice Dance FD: Sinitsina/Katsalapov

 

[RatedPG]

Sure, but Tuktamysheva still currently has a huge advantage over the non-Russians with two triple axels, so she'd probably be able to handle the FS too. I think Russia's fed would ultimately decide who competes in which segment of the team event. Eteri might have some sway but there are other politics involved. Mishin is still hugely respected and has a lot of sway. Everyone knows Eteri's top dog in Russia as far as coaching goes, but for optics and fairness they can't let her skaters have the whole pie if other skaters are worthy, safe bets for the team event. It's a way better story for Tuktamysheva to get the team medal than Anna, and Liza is earning it.

I can also see a scenario where Kamila is left out of the team event and Liza takes the SP and Anna the FS - after all, they are the reigning World silver and gold medalists.

This way (assuming Russia wins team, which they likely will) -- Liza gets a gold (and likely an individual medal that isn't gold), Anna gets a gold (and likely an individual medal that isn't gold), and Kamila gets the individual gold (which is the key prize) and everyone is happy.

I think Kamila would prefer two gold medals

 

[[email protected]]

Sure, but Tuktamysheva still currently has a huge advantage over the non-Russians with two triple axels, so she'd probably be able to handle the FS too. I think Russia's fed would ultimately decide who competes in which segment of the team event. Eteri might have some sway but there are other politics involved. Mishin is still hugely respected and has a lot of sway. Everyone knows Eteri's top dog in Russia as far as coaching goes, but for optics and fairness they can't let her skaters have the whole pie if other skaters are worthy, safe bets for the team event. It's a way better story for Tuktamysheva to get the team medal than Anna, and Liza is earning it.

I can also see a scenario where Kamila is left out of the team event and Liza takes the SP and Anna the FS - after all, they are the reigning World silver and gold medalists.

This way (assuming Russia wins team, which they likely will) -- Liza gets a gold (and likely an individual medal that isn't gold), Anna gets a gold (and likely an individual medal that isn't gold), and Kamila gets the individual gold (which is the key prize) and everyone is happy.

Yes, "great minds think alike".

 

[Alex Fedorov]

Trusova still has more drive than Lisa. It is difficult to choose one of these two (of course, provided that Sasha recovered from the injury).