State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[andromache]

I agree Ashley can win gold, but that is because we are not in a golden era of skating for ladies. When Russia can send two ladies who weren't even on the radar for their National team last year who are contenders that says a lot. I do hope the judging is more open than saying a bad skate by Ashley will get her fourth when you compare it to last year's 4th place finisher who had two good skates. Ashley is getting the pcs but she is no Kwan, she is no Kim and she is no Asada or even Kostner. Still the judges might just accept her as the pc queen right now although Korpi is back in the picture.

Based on the SP at Euros, judges aren't considering Korpi as a factor. IIRC, she received lower PCS than all of the Russian ladies. Which was totally unfair, I thought, as she deserves the highest PCS of all the competitive ladies at the moment.

I agree that the ladies field is rebuilding, which isn't uncharacteristic for a post-Olympic year. Ashley may not deserve higher PCS than the other ladies you listed, but PCS inflates every year, and I think her musicality is stronger than most others in the field at the moment. Winning gold for Ashley isn't completely unattainable in this field, but I have a feeling that while a lights-out completely clean Ashley might be deserving of gold, judges will hold her down in favor of one if not both of the Russians based on their consistency this season.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

If Ashley skates clean and loses to the Russians, it will be because of edge calls and the fact that she doesn't have difficult entries into most of her jumps.

 

[chuckm]

Ashley still has a tendency to double-foot her jumps.....

 

[Scovies]

If Ashley skates clean and loses to the Russians, it will be because of edge calls and the fact that she doesn't have difficult entries into most of her jumps.

I think a clean Ashley can beat Radionova fairly easily, even if she gets "!" calls on her lutzes (not a chance if she gets "e" calls, though). Their GOEs at the GPF on jumps were pretty comparable, but Ashley has a higher BV and should have the edge on PCS as well. She has got to hit the levels on the spins, though. Honestly though, looking at the GPF scores, Ashley could have beaten both the Russians in the LP if she'd rotated the 3S and hadn't botched her spin levels. She had no problem getting level 3s and 4s in her LP at Skate Canada and she got all level 4s on her SP spins at SC and the GPF, so she's definitely capable. There are just so many factors to consider with her, but with her upward trajectory through the GPF and Nationals, I feel pretty good about her chances at the podium.

Tuk is pretty much unbeatable if she has a fully-rotated 3A and skates relatively cleanly otherwise. Her jump GOEs deservedly blow everyone else's out of the water.

Gracie could definitely play spoiler, but I don't have a lot of confidence in her ability to put together two clean programs. I'd love to see both her and Ashley on the podium, but they'll need to skate lights-out and get a bit of help from a less-than-perfect Tuk or Radio to make that happen. If the podium ends up with any skater who isn't Russian or American, I'll be surprised.

 

[kwanatic]

And you didn't watch the LPs by any chance? Both Medvedeva and Sakhanovich got e on their lutzes (and also at least !'s in the SP, which are also calls, btw). In contrast, Higuchi got away without any call on a 3F in the LP that was definitely a !. Yes, we all know the russian girls are favored sometimes (and they're hardly the only ones, actually), but there's no need to reverte back to the old 'the evil russians'-shtick when actually they weren't favored over others.

I was about to say this.

Kwanatic, I know from past posts (and your blog ) that you're quite fair and have complimented many of the Russian girls. But in this case, I completely disagree about the edge calls being fishy at Junior Worlds. In fact, if anything was fishy, it was how harsh the LP caller was for Evgenia/Serafima compared to Wakaba. (We can debate the PCS, and I have a few questions on the GOE myself, but the tech caller was not favouring the Russians).
.

To me, the dings Evgenia and Serafima got on their lutzes in the SPs should have been edge calls...and I said as much in my blog . Looking back, the same is true for Wakaba's flip. In the grand scheme of things, I don't think the calls mattered much. I fully agreed with the results (even most of the PCS).

I worry about wonky edge calls on the junior level b/c it sends the wrong message to the skater. That lutz entry Evgenia and Serafima use is horrible. I'd prefer to see the judges give out the strict edge calls now while they are still young and can adjust their technique a bit easier than to see them get hammered to bits when they move to the senior level. IMO, an edge call is much more motivating than a "!" on a jump. Seeing that edge call lets you know you need to make adjustments ASAP whereas a ding may allow you to stay complacent with your technique as is.

Okay, I'm done talking Russians in the US ladies thread. Back on topic...how bout those Americans, huh?

 

[Sandpiper]

To me, the dings Evgenia and Serafima got on their lutzes in the SPs should have been edge calls...and I said as much in my blog . Looking back, the same is true for Wakaba's flip. In the grand scheme of things, I don't think the calls mattered much. I fully agreed with the results (even most of the PCS).

I worry about wonky edge calls on the junior level b/c it sends the wrong message to the skater. That lutz entry Evgenia and Serafima use is horrible. I'd prefer to see the judges give out the strict edge calls now while they are still young and can adjust their technique a bit easier than to see them get hammered to bits when they move to the senior level. IMO, an edge call is much more motivating than a "!" on a jump. Seeing that edge call lets you know you need to make adjustments ASAP whereas a ding may allow you to stay complacent with your technique as is.

Okay, I'm done talking Russians in the US ladies thread. Back on topic...how bout those Americans, huh?

I completely understand your point that it's better to be harsh now rather than later. The SP lutz for Evgenia should've been e (not sure about Sima). I just think the caller was actually harsher on the Russians than on Wakaba. Was the caller still not harsh enough? Perhaps. But that just seems like a case of inconsistent tech calls in general, rather than so-and-so being favoured due to being the expected winner of Jr. Worlds, ect.

The loop-entry lutz is indeed horrible to look at (not on the level of butt spin, but let's just say I hope it doesn't take off)... but unless the rules explicitly ban it, I feel that tech callers should call the edge itself. Even though Wakaba's lip is a much more beautiful jump than an Evgenia/Sima lutz, the edge isn't a lot better.

What I object to is how edge calls are tied to both BV and GOE. I'd probably have a set BV deduction for ! and e, but GOE remains unrestricted. That way, Wakaba's flip--which is an otherwise strong jump--should still pick up +2, while Evgenia's lutz would get 0. Even if they both receive the same call (be it ! or e), Wakaba would still get more points for that jump.

Umm... back to the Americans! What if a non-Russian ends up on the World podium... and that someone is not American either? How many explosions will we have here?

 

[Li'Kitsu]

To me, the dings Evgenia and Serafima got on their lutzes in the SPs should have been edge calls...and I said as much in my blog . Looking back, the same is true for Wakaba's flip. In the grand scheme of things, I don't think the calls mattered much. I fully agreed with the results (even most of the PCS).

I worry about wonky edge calls on the junior level b/c it sends the wrong message to the skater. That lutz entry Evgenia and Serafima use is horrible. I'd prefer to see the judges give out the strict edge calls now while they are still young and can adjust their technique a bit easier than to see them get hammered to bits when they move to the senior level. IMO, an edge call is much more motivating than a "!" on a jump. Seeing that edge call lets you know you need to make adjustments ASAP whereas a ding may allow you to stay complacent with your technique as is.

Okay, I'm done talking Russians in the US ladies thread. Back on topic...how bout those Americans, huh?

What you think about that loop entrance plays no role in the edge calls though. And yes, they should have gotten e's already in the SP - I'm not disputing the fact they should have gotten edge calls, I'm disputing your claim that the russian girls were favored over others. Because they weren't, and others didn't get their edge calls either.

 

[Globetrotter]

Ashley may not deserve higher PCS than the other ladies you listed, but PCS inflates every year, and I think her musicality is stronger than most others in the field at the moment. Winning gold for Ashley isn't completely unattainable in this field, but I have a feeling that while a lights-out completely clean Ashley might be deserving of gold, judges will hold her down in favor of one if not both of the Russians based on their consistency this season.

That I do agree to a certain extent. Unfortunately PCS is IMO a minefield these days. I always wondered how the 5 components are essentially running in approximately the same range for the top skaters when there is significant differences among SS, TR, PE, CR, IN. Wagner's musicality and maturity to me deserves high IN and if she does not botch her jumps, the PE should be high too - for some reason, I find that when she two foots it gets rather jarring and disruptive to her overall performance. Unfortunately, her SS (weak edges, definitely not huge coverage and effortless gliding) and TR (noticeably poor transitions) are relatively weaker and CR is rather empty at times. Radionova in contrast has superb PE (this girl obviously loves to perform!) and TR but just modest SS and CR. I find the IN too juniorish though. Yet you do not see the components having significant differences and all stay within a more or less similar range. I can't say that the judges have been very clear when it comes to PCS unlike the technical scores, so overall, PCS is still where there is plenty of controversies. I am not keeping my fingers crossed that something more enlightening will occur at Worlds.

 

[yyyskate]

ISU has educational video about the details of each PCS category, it is very informative to learn from it. It covers literally all aspects and details of the PCS categories. However, PCS is not given out according to those details. Really, seems more like a placeholder than anything. Before, I used to think skating skills is the most important category in PCS in terms of how judges giving out PCS scores, now, I have no idea..

 

[chuckm]

It's pretty simple: PCS scores are given out by judges. Many (but not all) judges will give higher scores to the skaters from their own federation than to skaters at a similar level of skill. When all the judges are European (as they are at Worlds), the PCS scores are going to be very high for the top European skaters (e.g. Russian, Finnish, Swedish, etc.). They will be high for the top skaters who are not European, too, but perhaps not quite as uniformly high.

 

[kwanatic]

What you think about that loop entrance plays no role in the edge calls though. And yes, they should have gotten e's already in the SP - I'm not disputing the fact they should have gotten edge calls, I'm disputing your claim that the russian girls were favored over others. Because they weren't, and others didn't get their edge calls either.

That's true. Wonky technique only affects the aesthetic of the jump; if the edge is correct then technically, it's correct.

Re: Russians being favored, if you read my other post I amended that statement:

To me, the dings Evgenia and Serafima got on their lutzes in the SPs should have been edge calls...and I said as much in my blog . Looking back, the same is true for Wakaba's flip.

 

[ice coverage]

From the Rolling Stone (!) website:

Why Is American Figure Skating Losing the Cold War?
As the World Championships begin, U.S. women are in the midst of an eight-year medal drought. Why? Let's start with the pantsuits

By Tracy O'Neill
March 25, 2015
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture...n-figure-skating-losing-the-cold-war-20150325​

via @KaylaRedd​

ETA: Rolling Stone also has tweeted the link:

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/580800843416539136
https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/580896555458281472​

 

[UnsaneLily87]

From the Rolling Stone (!) website:

Why Is American Figure Skating Losing the Cold War?
As the World Championships begin, U.S. women are in the midst of an eight-year medal drought. Why? Let's start with the pantsuits

By Tracy O'Neill
March 25, 2015
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture...n-figure-skating-losing-the-cold-war-20150325​

via @KaylaRedd​

So lovely to see such a mainstream story. Not sure I agree with it entirely but some coverage is better than none.

 

[sequinsgalore]

Well, Worlds is not off to a good start for the U.S. ladies

7th Polina Edmunds 61.71 (3Lz+3T, 3F!, 2A)
8th Gracie Gold 60.73 (3Lz stepout/no combo, 3Lo (forward), 2A)
11th Ashley Wagner 57.81 (3Lz+3T< fall, 2A turnout, 3F< twofoot)

Edmunds was the only cleanish, but she is still 5.31 point off 3rd - significant, but not unsurmountable

They also need to move up in order to keep 3 spots - not impossible, and both Edmunds/Wagner are usually better FS skaters

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Eek, I was afraid to check this thread after the SP. Will wait to see how the FS turns out, but the US ladies aren't doing well. The judges keep bailing out Gold, though - two errors (and no combo) and still above 60, and 3rd highest PCS. Same for Wagner with errors on all jumping passes (including a fall) and 4th highest PCS). Polina's PCS on the other hand is lower than last year's Worlds when she actually made an error. You'd think after winning 4CC her stock rose.

The US women still can maintain 3 spots, but they'll need to depend on Murakami/Li/Miyahara melting down for that to happen. Podium seems too far, IMO. But we'll see.

 

[sabinfire]

I expected things to be dire for the USA ladies, but not like this. I'd have thought either Gracie or Ashley (or even Polina) could crack the top 5, at least... just one of them to put up a good fight.

 

[LyraAngelica]

Another meh performance from all three so far at Worlds. Not surprising.

 

[R.D.]

I expected things to be dire for the USA ladies, but not like this. I'd have thought either Gracie or Ashley (or even Polina) could crack the top 5, at least... just one of them to put up a good fight.

Sums up my thoughts rather succinctly.

 

[Olympic]

It has been rehashed so often over the past decade that I won't get into it here, but for some reason, U.S. ladies just don't know how to keep their wits about them when it counts most (generally speaking). I'll leave it to the experts to understand why.

I want to laugh and cry when I think about this, but I remember Sasha Cohen being criticized roundly long ago for failing to deliver cleanly. As someone who roots for the US to do well, what I wouldn't give to have someone like Sasha nowadays.

 

[UnsaneLily87]

It has been rehashed so often over the past decade that I won't get into it here, but for some reason, U.S. ladies just don't know how to keep their wits about them when it counts most (generally speaking). I'll leave it to the experts to understand why.

I want to laugh and cry when I think about this, but I remember Sasha Cohen being criticized roundly long ago for failing to deliver cleanly. As someone who roots for the US to do well, what I wouldn't give to have someone like Sasha nowadays.

Yeah, everyone please take a moment to look at when I registered. March of 2006! I was a Sasha uber and everyone was so critical of her for choking all the time. For someone who choked under pressure, she has three world medals (two silvers and a bronze), a GPF title, and an Olympic silver medal to show for it. We'd kill to have a skater like that right now.