State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[StitchMonkey]

If team KoRo uses the same strategy they did with Jason, then Mariah could replicate his success. She has shown so much improvement since her move to CO, she could be the #1 US Lady next year or the year after.

Small correction.

Mariah was already in Colorado. She just moved from Westminster, CO (Northwest Denver Suburbia) to Monument, CO (basically a pit stop halfway between Colorado Springs and Denver) after graduating high school. It's not unrealistic that her parents worked in downtown Denver before and still do. Monument is a commute to downtown, but it is doable, especially if it means trying to get your kid to the Olympics. Some crazies commute for Vail for crying out loud, Monument would get a few seconds of sympathy and then the subject would be changed as it is not that interesting.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Small correction.

Mariah was already in Colorado. She just moved from Westminster, CO (Northwest Denver Suburbia) to Monument, CO (basically a pit stop halfway between Colorado Springs and Denver) after graduating high school. It's not unrealistic that her parents worked in downtown Denver before and still do. Monument is a commute to downtown, but it is doable, especially if it means trying to get your kid to the Olympics. Some crazies commute for Vail for crying out loud, Monument would get a few seconds of sympathy and then the subject would be changed as it is not that interesting.

Didn't Mariah live in Tulsa until last summer? She would travel to Colorodo for short stays but until she finished high school last year she lived in Oklahoma.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Didn't Mariah live in Tulsa until last summer? She would travel to Colorodo for short stays but until she finished high school last year she lived in Oklahoma.

Don't think so.

She graduated from high school in Arvada (basically next-door to Westminster - still part of Denver Suburbia). Here is a clip of her getting an award from her high school last year.

She talked about moving to Monument in her Skating Lesson interview and mentioned that she was happy it was already in Colorado so it made the transition easier.

I have no idea when she moved from Oklahoma to Colorado, but it appears to be before she moved to team Koro if that makes any sense.

For what it is worth Icenetwork, her ISU bio and her Wikipedia entry (which was only added after nationals) list her "Hometown" as Westminster, which usually indicates more than a year or two of living there.

 

[Globetrotter]

She sells her programs and delivers a performance--not just a paint-by-numbers choreographer-told-me-to-do-this skate. Sometimes Ashley feels like an older version of Elena--they both have fire and determination, though Elena offers more of a youthful wildness, while Ashley has more polish.

She's weaker at SS compared to Liza, Gracie, and Satoko, but that doesn't mean she's worse at everything else. I think she has better musical timing (INT), better performance ability (P/E), and more fitting programs (CH) compared to, say, Gracie.

Of course, these are all really subjective things, but can't we say the same about every skater? I don't know why Ashley's getting singled out here, especially since she's not even going to get the highest PCS if everyone goes clean. I suspect Liza will.

I will agree that PCS wise, Wagner does top Gold in the IN, PE and CH area. Compared with the Russians Liza Tuks or Lena Radio, Wagner has better IN and CH due to her better polish and maturity but the PE is subjective. Wagner uses her experience and maturity well but while Tuks and Radio may not have Wagner's polish, they certainly know how to perform and work the crowd. Especially Lena Radio. Unfortunately, Wagner does suffer from the weaker SS and TR scores as she neither has the secure deep edges of Miyahara or the speed and flow of Tuks or the transitions of Radio. It may be too late for that at this stage. What I like in Wagner is that among the American skaters, she seems the one who has the strongest competitive fire and the ability to punch above her own weight. It is just a matter of doing it at the right time although realistically, she may never reach the level of more talented girls like Liza Tuks or Ade Sots.

 

[amc987]

I don't know if the 2 triple-triple plan is best for Ashley. I feel like she's better off doing the 3Z-3T (because she says that's easier for her than 3F-3T), 3F-2T, 3F, 2 3Los, 2A and then maybe a 3S-2A sequence.

Because you don't get bonus points for combos (which is an absurd rule), you're better off doing the easier layout and making sure everything is rotated. I think she needs 1 3-3 because it makes the judges view her as one of the top ladies technically and (even though it isn't supposed to) marginally helps her PCS.

I don't see her getting much more than 135 for a pristine clean program with her layout as it is, and she risks losing valuable points by doing 2 3Zs and potentially getting called for underrotations on the back end of her 3-3s. If she'd gotten her 3S or her 3T credited at Worlds, Ashley would have been close to 130 and 2nd in the free.

 

[R.D.]

Like I said, the camera. She's just not good enough, the conditions are too demanding. Someone else will be required for the U.S. to medal again. Wagner is fine at GPs - any camera will excel in bright sunlight...but in a dimly lit gym, stage hall or ice rink, it gets tougher.

 

[shine]

She's weaker at SS compared to Liza, Gracie, and Satoko, but that doesn't mean she's worse at everything else. I think she has better musical timing (INT), better performance ability (P/E), and more fitting programs (CH) compared to, say, Gracie.

Gracie and Satoko, yes, but I don't think Liza's SS is that great.

 

[Tutto]

This whole post makes me envision Sasha Cohen!!!

I think RD is on to something and I'd simply say we Americans have two girls fighting to be the US #2 while also at the same time our #3 is making a run at #2

I stubbornly refuse to give up on Gracie, she has everything and once she gets her head sorted she will be winning possibly even over Liza with her 3A. She is the only complete skater for me there is out there at the moment (minus the head, sadly! ). I think judges agree with me as Worlds proved.It took Liza how many seasons to get that kind of consistency? It is a personal journey, I just feel Gracie will get there if not next season then season after.

 

[silverlake22]

Another upside for Gracie is that among the current crop of ladies, she is one of the skaters I could see potentially getting a 3a or 4s. I know her 2a isn't her best jump but she has big powerful jumps in general, carries a lot of speed across the ice, and has worked on 3a in the past. Apart from Tuk, I don't see 3a coming from any of the other Russian girls, they all either appear not to be strong enough (Medvedeva, Sotskova), have a bad 2a (Sakhanovich, Leonova), or both (Radionova, Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaya, etc.). I guess Adelina could potentially do a 3a since her 2a is huge and powerful, but her 2a is also scary a lot of the time. Meanwhile in the US, Polina and Ashley both have bad 2axels and a hard enough time rotating 3-3s that it makes me think a 3a or quad won't happen for either of them either. Don't see much potential in Japan either except for Higuchi.

If this is the direction women's skating is going in, Gracie does have an advantage.

 

[StitchMonkey]

So why do we think a 4S would be better for Gracie than a 4T? Her toe jumps seem to be her big jumps.

 

[Tutto]

If this is the direction women's skating is going in, Gracie does have an advantage.

I am not convinced that 3A and quads will become a common thing. Liza has an enormous jumping talent + the best jumping coach in the world= the result we know. It does not mean however that all other ladies' physical abilities will change overnight. I think Liza is 3A will stay 'her' jump just like it was Mao's.
I am a Liza fan but I think choreo will always be her weak point simply because for Team Mishin jumps invariably come first. Also as dominant as she might be from now on, she hardly will be winning every competition, nobody ever did. So there will always be a window of opportunity for her competitors. It is interesting that at Worlds Liza's total points with the 3A equal her score at Euros without 3A (210). I see Gracie as a more complete skater than Liza, all she needs is consistency.

 

[Krunchii]

Gracie should focus on skating clean instead of big tricks, even with her lack of connection to the music the judges are willing to give her big marks if she doesn't make mistakes. I don't see the potential at all, most girl get all their triples before they're done puberty and I don't see her learning new, even harder jumps at this point without taking away focus from everything else, she should just focus on maximizing what she already has.

 

[Sandpiper]

I am not convinced that 3A and quads will become a common thing. Liza has an enormous jumping talent + the best jumping coach in the world= the result we know. It does not mean however that all other ladies' physical abilities will change overnight. I think Liza is 3A will stay 'her' jump just like it was Mao's.
I am a Liza fan but I think choreo will always be her weak point simply because for Team Mishin jumps invariably come first. Also as dominant as she might be from now on, she hardly will be winning every competition, nobody ever did. So there will always be a window of opportunity for her competitors. It is interesting that at Worlds Liza's total points with the 3A equal her score at Euros without 3A (210). I see Gracie as a more complete skater than Liza, all she needs is consistency.

That's because Liza made several errors in the LP at Worlds--minor ones, but enough to mar the overall impact of her program. Her LP score would've been similar to her Europeans score if she skated like she did at Europeans.

I don't see Gracie getting 3A, due to her less-than-ideal axel technique. I also don't see her beating a clean Liza with her current layout--that would be pretty awful judging, imo. Then again, I could never see Gracie as a complete skater just because she has the best SS. She skates with little expression and doesn't ever seem to perform--except for exhibitions. I find her choreography the weakest among the top skaters, actually (except maybe Anna's SP with the blaring vocals ).

What we don't know if how consistent the 3A will be for Liza in the future, and how it affects her other jumps. What she showed at Worlds was very, very promising, but anything can happen. She's certainly beatable when she makes enough mistakes.

Or, Gracie could try a 4T.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Gracie should focus on skating clean instead of big tricks, even with her lack of connection to the music the judges are willing to give her big marks if she doesn't make mistakes.

This is true, but I think she does focus on skating clean. She doesn't appear to be making any progress on the artistic front. Her jumps were great until she went to Frank and started modifying her jumps to (what appears to be) make them smaller.

 

[silverlake22]

So why do we think a 4S would be better for Gracie than a 4T? Her toe jumps seem to be her big jumps.

Gracie mentioned in her press conference that she's tried 4s before and if she were to train a quad, it would most likely be Salchow. Most females who have ever trained a quad did the salchow.

 

[TryMeLater]

I am not convinced that 3A and quads will become a common thing. Liza has an enormous jumping talent + the best jumping coach in the world= the result we know. It does not mean however that all other ladies' physical abilities will change overnight. I think Liza is 3A will stay 'her' jump just like it was Mao's.
I am a Liza fan but I think choreo will always be her weak point simply because for Team Mishin jumps invariably come first. Also as dominant as she might be from now on, she hardly will be winning every competition, nobody ever did. So there will always be a window of opportunity for her competitors. It is interesting that at Worlds Liza's total points with the 3A equal her score at Euros without 3A (210). I see Gracie as a more complete skater than Liza, all she needs is consistency.

Well. nobody ever did because you can have some bad skates.
The best example is Ito and Yamaguchi.
Ito was unbeatable in the SP and LP (not counting figures), for 2 years, during which people started criticizing her artistry (which I don't think was true).
Then Yamaguchi started to include the 3Lz-3T in her LP and Ito had mini-meltdowns.
A "relatively" clean Ito would have easily won Yamaguchi as 1991 Lalique showed.
Now, back to Liza. Lize has Ito's jumps and consistency and the skating skills to match.
She is beatable only when she makes mistakes...and than the rest have to be foot perfect!

 

[Globetrotter]

Well. nobody ever did because you can have some bad skates.
The best example is Ito and Yamaguchi.
Ito was unbeatable in the SP and LP (not counting figures), for 2 years, during which people started criticizing her artistry (which I don't think was true).
Then Yamaguchi started to include the 3Lz-3T in her LP and Ito had mini-meltdowns.
A "relatively" clean Ito would have easily won Yamaguchi as 1991 Lalique showed.
Now, back to Liza. Lize has Ito's jumps and consistency and the skating skills to match.
She is beatable only when she makes mistakes...and than the rest have to be foot perfect!

Pity. Ito IMO was the biggest victim of bad timing - compulsory figures, 6.0 judging, artistry preference in the form of lyrical feminine skaters. She tried to adopt a softer style after the late 80's which was not her at all. Much prefer her boundless energetic powerful skates. Ito and to a lesser extent, Tonya Harding and Irina Slutskaya were the best examples of powerful female skaters who were marked down for poor presentation simply because they didn't conform to the super subjective definition of artistry, meaning beautiful body lines and carriage. CoP came too late for Harding and Ito but Slutskaya definitely benefited and her natural skating style and difficulty began to be rewarded while the balletic presentation style favoured by say Michelle Kwan was strongly disadvantaged.

I personally think that Gold has the goods to be a good CoP skater. The fact that she does well in sassy exhibitions suggested that she might do better with the energetic and fast pace programme rather than the classical Disney princess act which left everyone out cold. Her SS and big jumps will certainly be better interpreted with a more energetic programme. Still, it is a tall order. Technically, I doubt she can go much more as I don't think she has the ability to go for a 3A when her 2A is already cranky. And she does not rotate that fast to gain a quad. If she can boost her competitive nerves and skate to more appropriate programmes catered to her natural persona, I suspect we will get something much more interesting. Otherwise, her current PCS only deserves high scores for SS, modest TR and should only score low 7's for PE, CH and IN.

 

[Jammers]

Well. nobody ever did because you can have some bad skates.
The best example is Ito and Yamaguchi.
Ito was unbeatable in the SP and LP (not counting figures), for 2 years, during which people started criticizing her artistry (which I don't think was true).
Then Yamaguchi started to include the 3Lz-3T in her LP and Ito had mini-meltdowns.
A "relatively" clean Ito would have easily won Yamaguchi as 1991 Lalique showed.
Now, back to Liza. Lize has Ito's jumps and consistency and the skating skills to match.
She is beatable only when she makes mistakes...and than the rest have to be foot perfect!

Tuks skating skills are not that great to be honest.

 

[stella luna]

Cynthia Phaneuf of Canada also skated to it, for a short program. At Worlds I thought Gracie seemed calmed by her long program music and connected to it.

I'd rather see a program to free-flowing classical music than something from a bombastic Broadway extravaganza that's been done so much before.

I think in the hands of a mature skater (ie. Mao ) Debussy's Claire de Lune would come off as mature, ladylike and elegant without being so "ice princess" feeling.

Unfortunately, I don't think Gracie is mature enough in her skating yet to skate Claire de Lune without coming off looking like an ice princess. At this point anything light classical on Gracie would come off as "ice princess."

The funny thing is Mao's Claire de Lune was choreographed by none other then......Lori Nichol

 

[kwanatic]

Tuks skating skills are not that great to be honest.

Agreed. It's b/c she's been winning and her PCS have jumped significantly. Liza has improved her ice coverage (it used to be flat out awful) and she does have decent speed but to be honest, overall, I think Satoko, Elena and Gracie have better SS than Liza. Elena and Satoko definitely have better TR as well. Again this is a case of the PCS reflecting the skater's position in the standings rather than what they actually do on the ice. :disapp:

Cynthia Phaneuf of Canada also skated to it, for a short program. At Worlds I thought Gracie seemed calmed by her long program music and connected to it.

I'd rather see a program to free-flowing classical music than something from a bombastic Broadway extravaganza that's been done so much before.

I'd prefer Gracie go the up-beat show tune route...she needs to go the complete opposite direction of the snore-fest that was her FS this year. Gracie (ironically) lacks the natural grace needed to make Claire de Lune really shine. She doesn't have the innate abilities to carry delicate/soft music without putting everyone to sleep. Maybe she'll develop it down the line but based on what we saw this season, she's a long way from making that work.

I truly hope Frank and Lori pull Gracie out of the princess box. She was SO boring this season. I just want them to allow her to tap into her personality and strengths as a skater.


Re: the triple axel...there aren't too many US ladies I could see doing one. Ashley, Gracie and Polina all have dicey/weak axel technique. Mirai has excellent axel technique (good lift, height and distance) but I don't think she's capable of rotating fast enough.

I do think Karen Chen could possibly pull one off. She has a monster 2A. Assuming she survives puberty over the next few years, I could totally see her managing to execute a 3A in the future...