Elena will probably medal if Ashley,Gracie and Mao all mess up. Ashley, Gracie and Mao will probably mess up so Elena will probably medal. I don't think her chances are very good if any of those three delivers two good skates though.
2015-16 State of Russian Ladies skating
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Elena will probably medal if Ashley,Gracie and Mao all mess up. Ashley, Gracie and Mao will probably mess up so Elena will probably medal. I don't think her chances are very good if any of those three delivers two good skates though.
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Unlike most people, I don't think Satoko is a lock for the podium (although it is more likely than not she will be on there). A strict tech panel could slaughter her TES, much like how Mirai's scores can vary wildly based on how her rotation is judged.
Radio will beat even a clean Ashley imho.
Chances of Mao and Gracie messing up at least one program at least partially are about 99%.
But c'mon, let's be realistic here. When was the last time a strict tech panel slaughtered her TES?
I disagree. I think a completely clean Ashley will defeat a completely clean Radio.
You gotta think about the location the event is being held. It's being held in the US. Obviously, there will be some home advantage (not sure how much, but there will be.. explicit or implicit).
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Mao would be lucky to even be on the podium, considering her skates this season.
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Although I agree, I do have to say she's always done her best skating late in the season, either at 4CCs or Worlds, with very few if any exceptions, even when she was very young, so she dos know how to peak at the right time.
This event is unpredictable. I wouldn't underestimate Mao and Gracie... both of them kind of self sabotaged themselves with their SP layout and will likely have that fixed. I wouldn't overestimate the consistency of Radionova and Medvedeva... Radionova has fell at every Senior GPF/Worlds she's been at... Medvedeva has fell at 4 out of 6 events this season. If forced to bet I'd bet on Medvedeva but I wouldn't bet.
Why would there suddenly be a "strict" tech panel? It's naive to ask them to take down all her pre-rotations... all I ask from the tech panel is to look at where she really starts the jumps(especially the 3T) and not how she frames it... and a jump landed like this in the same direction of the jumps momentum is unlikely to be rotated. Also, someone with a 3F like this shouldn't be doing it in the SP so please check that out.
Why would there suddenly be a "strict" tech panel? It's naive to ask them to take down all her pre-rotations... all I ask from the tech panel is to look at where she really starts the jumps(especially the 3T) and not how she frames it... and a jump landed like this in the same direction of the jumps momentum is unlikely to be rotated. Also, someone with a 3F like this shouldn't be doing it in the SP so please check that out.
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Actually, Radionova didn't fall at Worlds in 2015. Over the past 2 seasons, she's only fallen 3 times (both GPFs, like you said, and CoC 2015). That being said, A LOT of her jumps have messy landings. So Radionova is consistent in that she gets the jumps done, but she doesn't consistently get +GOEs.
Medvedeva, on the other hand, has fallen more frequently, but every other jump gets +GOEs so it almost doesn't matter.
Also, both of them pop jumps very, very infrequently, and popped jumps are far more costly than a fully-rotated jump + fall.
Some tech specialists (tech controllers?) have a reputation for being very strict--Shin Amano, for example.
Which reminds me, when do we find out tho the judging panel and tech panel for Worlds will be?
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While he is strict (even on Mao), I think there would be pressure on him from the Japan Fed to not judge Satoko more harshly than other tech panels do. She is probably their best hope for a medal in Boston. However, I don't think he can be on the tech panel because Satoko finished on the podium last year.
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I just think Satoko should be dinged like Mirai had been for years or alternatively her goes be very low if non exisent for most of her jumps. They barely get off the ground I looks like in many cases. I know she is consistent but goes should be lower. That being said she skates the most clean out of all the ladies and her programs are pretty. She definitely has a good shot at the title. Mao may bring it on but at this point unless Mao starts winning everything she is kind of like Carolina Kostner. A little more consistent though.
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- Feb 25, 2014
Have you seen her live? People who have seen her live at 4CC said her jumps look bigger than what we see on screen so what we see might be different than what the judges see having the skaters in front of them.
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This is why I'm so perplexed about Mirai's Rotation Problems. I have never seen Satoko in person. However, when I saw Mirai in 2011 I thought she was great and unlike Satoko, Mirai's jumps are BIG. I still blame her ballet training for her calls because, I think she has such good toe point that her picks hit the ice and she gets dinged. Of course, I don't know for sure. But, that's my take on it. Lastly, it is nearly impossible to stop pointing your toes after you've spent years in ballet.
I still "Leap" over puddles, and I've been caught doing turns down the aisle at the grocery store. It's quite sad..
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- Feb 25, 2014
Mirai's jumps have more elevation but she might be rotating with slower speed. Either that or she ends up worrying about them. On the other hand, based on several different 4CC reports, Satoko's jumps are bigger than what they look like on stream and they're not distracting. She rotates with a lot of speed and manages to land clean on the vast majority of them. She is faster than Mirai and has impressive ice coverage despite her small build. But her key element is probably the ability to concentrate and do her job regardless of the environment.
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- Jul 9, 2014
This is a very good explanation. I forget sometimes how difficult rotating jumps can be. As a dancer, I would say the second hardest thing I had to learn when I started skating was to stop "Spotting" on my jumps. I think Jeffery Buttle used to talk about it.
I saw her at Skate America this year and they did not really look that big to me live. Will have to pay closer attention at Worlds to se if they seem bigger
So far Satoko is here, Mirai is here...I'll go to other thread, might find Russian girls in Canadian thread
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- Feb 22, 2016
Actually, Radionova didn't fall at Worlds in 2015. Over the past 2 seasons, she's only fallen 3 times (both GPFs, like you said, and CoC 2015). That being said, A LOT of her jumps have messy landings. So Radionova is consistent in that she gets the jumps done, but she doesn't consistently get +GOEs.
Medvedeva, on the other hand, has fallen more frequently, but every other jump gets +GOEs so it almost doesn't matter.
Also, both of them pop jumps very, very infrequently, and popped jumps are far more costly than a fully-rotated jump + fall.
Some tech specialists (tech controllers?) have a reputation for being very strict--Shin Amano, for example.
Which reminds me, when do we find out tho the judging panel and tech panel for Worlds will be?
All I can hope is that it's not going to be Mr Lakernik from Russia (Sochi ladies' event) ...
Gracie Gold and Ashley will have homecourt advantage but they are going to be under an enormous pressure to medal in Boston unlike the Russians who are younger and more consistent.
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- Nov 16, 2014
Japanese are quite professional in their fields, so I don't think he will yield to any pressure whatsoever.
But you never know if that pressure might actually help them to win a medal. It sure did help Sotnikova who was and is currently also extremely inconsistent.
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