Yuzuru Hanyu: 2016-17 Season

[gsyzf]

well, it seems he may be doing only 4lo's and 4S's in his programs, I think his 3f is good enough to try 4f

Which jumps are included in his programs depends on the risk reward ratio of the jumps, the risk reward ratio of alternative jumps, not just the risk of injuries. The standard in today's competition is two quads SP and at least 3 quad LP (with 3 types of quads) if you want to win. If his 4t now has higher risk of injury, the risk reward ratio of 4t becomes lower than before. Whether he will replace 4t depends on if he can do other quads that have higher risk reward ratio. In the SP, he can replace 4t with 4lo because 4lo now has higher risk reward ratio than 4t (4lo has higher BV and decent consistency in practice now). But in the LP, if he needs 3 types of quads, then he can only replace 4t if the risk reward ratio of 4F or 4lz is higher than 4t. Doing 4f has a risk of getting edge deduction. It's not worth attempting it if he will get BV and GOE deduction. He has never landed 4lz in public. (It may just happen to be that he never landed 4lz when there were cameras filming him. But if in the few occasions that he was filmed and none of his 4lz attempts was successful, it also means the success rate of 4lz in practice isn't that high.) If he has extra time to practice 4F, he might as well use those extra time to practice 4lz and improve the consistency of 4lz because he doesn't risk getting edge calls when he does 4lz. (I don't think he would practice 4F if his 4lz success rate isn't very high yet.) Right now, it looks like he doesn't have better alternatives to replace 4t in the FS. Unless his 4lz becomes much more consistent than 4t, he will still jump 4t in the FS.

Many skaters still attempt the same risky jumps. e.g. quads, that had previously led to injures, and therefore get more injuries after doing the same jumps because they don't have any better alternative jumps to replace the risky jumps.

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ETA: If he does only 4s and 4lo in the FS, it will only be for the beginning of the season, not for the entire season.

 

[wookchub]

Yuzuru holds a world record with a program that included only two types of quad though so I wouldn't say three is necessary 'if you want to win' but I'll take the point that I'm sure he would like to be doing 3 types of quad as soon as he can

 

[Rissa]

The standard in today's competition is two quads SP and at least 3 quad LP (with 3 types of quads) if you want to win.

No it isn't. Something that only Boyang Jin does does not qualify as standard. (And he's not winning actually.)

It would really be easier to have a discussion if you didn't pull such "facts" out of your a $$.

 

[gsyzf]

No it isn't. Something that only Boyang Jin does does not qualify as standard. (And he's not winning actually.)

It would really be easier to have a discussion if you didn't pull such "facts" out of your a $$.

Last season, many skaters upped their tech to 3 quads with 2 types of quads in the LP. That was the standard last season. Men's field today doesn't stay still. More and more skaters are upping their tech. So if he wants to be ahead of others and win in the coming season, he will need to have more difficulty, hence at least 3 quads with 3 types of quads in the LP, otherwise other skaters will overtake him eventually. (I'm not talking about Boyang as the standard. If Yuzuru has similar tech content as other skaters, he can be overtaken eventually. In fact, more skaters this season are trying LPs with 3 types of quads. The SP only allows two quads, so there is not much room to up the tech in the SP any more.)

 

[Raomina]

Last season, many skaters upped their tech to 3 quads with 2 types of quads in the LP. That was the standard last season. Men's field today doesn't stay still. More and more skaters are upping their tech. So if he wants to be ahead of others and win in the coming season, he will need to have more difficulty, hence at least 3 quads with 3 types of quads in the LP, otherwise other skaters will overtake him eventually. (I'm not talking about Boyang as the standard. If Yuzuru has similar tech content as other skaters, he can be overtaken eventually. In fact, more skaters this season are trying LPs with 3 types of quads. The SP only allows two quads, so there is not much room to up the tech in the SP any more.)

Many skaters JUST upped their tech to 3 quads in FS last season. The standard does not move continuously upwards so quickly like that before people have even consistently performed with that content. It was 2 quads per FS for quite a while before this change and I don't think it will jump over 3 quads per FS in one season. I think you are overestimating the speed of the progression.

Only a couple of younger guys like Boyang and Nathan are consistently landing 4 quads and they are not good enough to move the standard yet. It was like how Javier and Kevin Reynolds had 3 quads in the FS (or at least 2 in SP I think) for the longest time but they were never Gold medal contenders and the standard only shifted when Yuzuru did the 3 quad FS cleanly. If it was so easy and risk-free to just add one more quad every season and WIN, we'd have an all quad program in 5 years....

 

[gsyzf]

Many skaters JUST upped their tech to 3 quads in FS last season. The standard does not move continuously upwards so quickly like that before people have even consistently performed with that content. It was 2 quads per FS for quite a while before this change and I don't think it will jump over 3 quads per FS in one season. I think you are overestimating the speed of the progression.

Only a couple of younger guys like Boyang and Nathan are consistently landing 4 quads and they are not good enough to move the standard yet. It was like how Javier and Kevin Reynolds had 3 quads in the FS (or at least 2 in SP I think) for the longest time but they were never Gold medal contenders and the standard only shifted when Yuzuru did the 3 quad FS cleanly. If it was so easy and risk-free to just add one more quad every season and WIN, we'd have an all quad program in 5 years....

I meant the standard to win. If he wants to win, he needs to be ahead of others. So if other medal contenders (I'm not talking about everybody in the field) are doing 3 quads with 2 types of quads, he would need to plan more than what the other medal contenders do, not the same as what they do.

 

[HanDomi]

I meant the standard to win. If he wants to win, he needs to be ahead of others. So if other medal contenders (I'm not talking about everybody in the field) are doing 3 quads with 2 types of quads, he would need to plan more than what the other medal contenders do, not the same as what they do.

I think you are forgoting one think, that jumps is not the only thing he has overr all this young guns. He has everything in PCS area over them, and he scored 120 TES with 2 types of quad.

 

[gsyzf]

I think you are forgoting one think, that jumps is not the only thing he has overr all this young guns. He has everything in PCS area over them, and he scored 120 TES with 2 types of quad.

I wasn't only talking about younger skaters. The other senior top skaters have similar pcs and goe as him and many of them are/will be doing 3 quads with 2 types of quads in FS. He needs to be ahead of everyone, not just the younger skaters who go for more quads, but also the veteran skaters who already have similar jump content as him last season.

 

[HanDomi]

I wasn't only talking about younger skaters. The other senior top skaters have similar pcs and goe as him and many of them are/will be doing 3 quads with 2 types of quads in FS. He needs to be ahead of everyone, not just the younger skaters who go for more quads, but also the veteran skaters who already have similar jump content as him last season.

What are the other top skaters who have layout like him other than Fernandez ? And still even when Fernandez added 2nd 3A his layout is still easier than Hanyu, because he is doing quaad and 3A combo in 1st half

 

[gsyzf]

What are the other top skaters who have layout like him other than Fernandez ? And still even when Fernandez added 2nd 3A his layout is still easier than Hanyu, because he is doing quaad and 3A combo in 1st half

Didn't Denis Ten plan the same thing? Shoma already had similar jump content as Yuzuru last season. There are also other skaters who plan to up their tech this season. You can't assume other skaters will never improve and skate clean.

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ETA: I thought it's quite obvious given everyone is upping their game, Yuzuru's previous layout of 3 quads with 2 types of quads is not enough to guarantee wins any more. You can't assume the other skaters who upped or will up their tech will never improve or skate clean and will always score lower than Yuzuru.

 

[Meoima]

Didn't Denis Ten plan the same thing? Shoma already had similar jump content as Yuzuru last season. There are also other skaters who plan to up their tech this season. You can't assume other skaters will never improve and skate clean.

no, look at their plan layouts last season and you will see they didn't have that same layout. They start upgrading their layout significantly this season.

 

[gsyzf]

no, look at their plan layouts last season and you will see they didn't have that same layout. They start upgrading their layout significantly this season.

I meant last season as 2015-2016 season. I'm referring to this season as 2016-2017 season because it already started (at least in junior level).

Denis Ten's planned LP layout at WC has 3 quads and two 3A. Shoma's planned LP layout at TCC has 3 quads and two 3A.

 

[Meoima]

I meant last season as 2015-2016 season. I'm referring to this season as 2016-2017 season.
Denis Ten's planned LP layout at WC has 3 quads and two 3A. Shoma's planned LP layout at TCC has 3 quads and two 3A.

Yuzuru's layout was hardest last season (BV behind Boyang but much more transitions and complex pattern), and this season Javi say he would do 4 quads.

 

[gsyzf]

Yuzuru's layout was hardest last season (BV behind Boyang but much more transitions and complex pattern), and this season Javi say he would do 4 quads.

If skaters all do 3 quads (with two types of quads) and two 3As and have similar backloading (e.g. 3-5 layout), their BVs would be similar, maybe 1-2 points apart due to different spin/step levels and combination jumps. It's not a significantly big difference. If he keeps the same layout he used last season, he won't have much (if any) BV advantage this season. If he wants to win, he will need to do more than what he did in previous season.

 

[Meoima]

If skaters all do 3 quads (with two types of quads) and two 3As and have similar backloading (e.g. 3-5 layout), their BVs would be similar, maybe 1-2 points apart due to different spin/step levels and combination jumps. It's not a significantly big difference. If he keeps the same layout he used last season, he won't have much (if any) BV advantage this season. If he wants to win, he will need to do more than what he did in previous season.

Of course Yuzuru knows that, or else Javi wouldn't have known Yuzuru would put 4 quads in his free skate, and not to mention 4lo.

 

[mcq]

In case there's still any confusion about this: the information came from an article in a German figure skating magazine (actually the only one I'm aware of. And figure skating is in no way big here, so this isn't some gossip journal but a reputable magazine). It's from an article about TCC in the September issue of Pirouette magazine. (the cover and the first one of this two-page article had already been posted and partly translated). I did a more direct translation of the parts regarding Yuzuru just to clear things up.

So basically all the information came from Orser. But before anybody gets a fit: he's obviously aware of which information he can and cannot share about Yuzuru and his training. Otherwise why would he mention the restrictions about things that he can't say. And I would think the information about the press conference on the 13th is pretty solid, too. :yes:

Thank you, Pamigena! It is very kind of you to trans this.

I think some are just confused because they thought it is in the issue where Yuzuru is the cover, but when they look it up they can't find the article, haha. If there is no change of plans from Yuzuru/his team/JSF, we should be hearing/seeing something soon! Can't wait!

 

[Raomina]

I meant the standard to win. If he wants to win, he needs to be ahead of others. So if other medal contenders (I'm not talking about everybody in the field) are doing 3 quads with 2 types of quads, he would need to plan more than what the other medal contenders do, not the same as what they do.

That's what I meant though. The standard to win does not shift so quickly. There is much more to winning than base value, and yet he is still on the higher end of that scale. There is no point doing 4 quads if it's not going to be clean. If he can do it, sure, go for it, but I don't think it's at the 'necessary' stage currently. It's better for him to practice being consistent with this content and if he is, he will still beat everyone when clean even if they plan to have 3 quads as well. It might be more 'necessary' next season. And for this season, it's more important to prepare for the Olympic season than to overdo it for minor wins anyway. I hope he ups his tech at a comfortable pace so that he doesn't get injured again.

 

[gsyzf]

That's what I meant though. The standard to win does not shift so quickly. There is much more to winning than base value, and yet he is still on the higher end of that scale. There is no point doing 4 quads if it's not going to be clean. If he can do it, sure, go for it, but I don't think it's at the 'necessary' stage currently. It's better for him to practice being consistent with this content and if he is, he will still beat everyone when clean even if they plan to have 3 quads as well. It might be more 'necessary' next season. And for this season, it's more important to prepare for the Olympic season than to overdo it for minor wins anyway. I hope he ups his tech at a comfortable pace so that he doesn't get injured again.

It will be too late to change in the olympic season because he won't have enough time to practice a new layout and become more consistent before the olympics. I don't think he can get used to a brand new layout with more types of quads in one season. That would be really risky. If he wants to make significant changes to his layout, it will need to be this season (2016-2017 season), so he still has two seasons to practice and become more consistent.

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ETA: Also the speed of other skaters' progress is outside of his control. He cannot control how fast or how slow the other skaters improve. The standard of winning does not shift quickly if his rivals progress really slowly. But the standard of winning shifts quickly if his rivals progress quickly. Using the same layout means he will need to rely on his rivals making slow progress in order to win. What he wants is to be the clear winner even when everyone skates their best. It means he needs to have superior difficulty and quality to be the indisputable winner.

 

[wookchub]

It will be too late to change in the olympic season because he won't have enough time to practice a new layout and become more consistent before the olympics. I don't think he can get used to a brand new layout with more types of quads in one season. That would be really risky. If he wants to make significant changes to his layout, it will need to be this season (2016-2017 season), so he still has two seasons to practice and become more consistent.

I think you underestimate him to be honest. He was able to completely rework his short program last season in the time between Skate Canada and NHK. He didn't add a brand new quad, but it was a new quad for that short program. That would be the same case if he were to keep 2 types of quad this season and add a third for the olympic season. Or even for the second half of the coming season.

 

[gsyzf]

I think you underestimate him to be honest. He was able to completely rework his short program last season in the time between Skate Canada and NHK. He didn't add a brand new quad, but it was a new quad for that short program. That would be the same case if he were to keep 2 types of quad this season and add a third for the olympic season. Or even for the second half of the coming season.

It took him 3 seasons to land 4S with some consistency. He has never landed any 4lo in competitions yet. No one knows whether he can land 4lo consistently or how long it will take for him to land 4lo consistently. 4lo may turn out to be like another 4S or he may land it consistently in much less time. There is uncertainty about adding a new type of quad. Even if he can land 4lo with some consistency in the first season, practicing a new layout for 2 seasons is still a better option than practicing a new layout for 1 season. More practice means better consistency, everything else equal. Most people choose the best strategy for themselves, assuming they are rational decision makers. (Most people are rational decision makers. They don't choose sub-optimal strategies on purpose.)

He is quite realistic of his ability and his rivals' ability. He is planning to do 4 quads with 3 types of quads this season rather than re-using the same layout. It means he doesn't underestimate his rivals and he doesn't overestimate himself either. He is most likely aware that he can't add new quads and immediately skate a new layout of greater difficulty cleanly and consistently.