US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)

[Tavi...]

The problem is that JASON HAS AN INJURY. He is going to 4CC, so his injury is unlikely to heal. That means no quad practice for Worlds and possibly still having a chronic injury for Worlds. Jason's ability to place high is limited by his lack of a quad. At Worlds 16, all of the men who placed in the top 12 attempted a quad in the FS, and most landed at least one quad.

Nathan should have no problem placing top 5, but Jason placing 8th or lower is certainly not a sure thing.

I can't imagine that the selection committe would have named him to the team unless they were reasonably sure he was well on the way to recovery already and that it would be okay to send him to 4CC. I'm willing to bet that in addition to speaking with Kori and Jason and watching him in practice, they reviewed his medical records and spoke to his doctor and physical therapist. One of the judges, Wendy Enzmann, is the chair of the international selection committee, so she had plenty of opportunity to observe him in competition, too. Undoubtedly they will be regularly monitoring him, and will see him in action at 4CC. It's not like we'll lose a spot if he performs poorly there. If he isn't ready by Worlds, I'm sure they'll send an alternate.

But I'm hoping he recovers and kills it at Worlds!

 

[el henry]

To be fair, Jason DOES need a quad (really two, at least one in the SP and the FS). He has garnered the trust of USFS that he'll be at Skate America -- or better, really -- shape by Worlds, and showing interim progress by 4CC. USFS may have the policy that allows them more flexibility, but it's so dang new that the proof of concept is not there. And Mathman and others are right -- there needs to be prominence of a national championship factored in.

So USFS is gambling that Jason will follow through on what he promised. Their reputation and their policy is on the line. He can't afford to say "I don't need a quad." The reaction of posters here is enough that he can't be careless with the opportunity (and obviously he takes it seriously, but just stressing this for the -- Jason skates beautiful programs crowd).


So for what it's worth...some numbers:

....

I think I may be writing too fast and conflating ideas (assuming I have more than one idea)

Do I think that Jason needs a quad to place in the top ten at Worlds? Probably. As in "a" quad. Which is pretty amazing considering how many the other men are doing. But very few men are going to get the PCS bump, if they miss or splat or pop, that Jason gets in his programs with "a" quad. IMHO.

I also think that the chances of all the men who "have" quads skating not just clean, but without major hiccups, are less than 50/50. I can't think of a comp where *someone* didn't have a disaster for a program. Do I think, in competitive terms, that Jason can count on that? Nope, he can't. But again it's wishful thinking to count on every single one of those "oh my God he has 85 quads" skaters landing every single one of them.

When I bring out the "Jason skates beautifully and I don't care" mantra, it's not about his placements. It's that I, personally, don't care about the placements. That just seems such a leap for some folks (I'm not talking about you, Mrs. P, just going off generally) that they simply cannot comprehend it is so. But it is.

Until someone says "It's a sport". Then I hit them with my old lady cane and it's all over

 

[ice coverage]

... However, she was given 3 opportunities to represent the US internationally and unfortunately she was unable to break the top 5, let alone make the podium in any event. ... So to me, Bradie has had 3 opportunities but has been unable to deliver. ...

But you are mistaken about Bradie.

In her most recent comp before Nats, she won the bronze at a Challenger: Tallinn Cup, where she placed above Mariah Bell.

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_cr_00034592.htm​

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Seems to me that both Bradie and Amber are going to have to skate a junior ISU event at some point before JW so as to establish JUNIOR TES minimums for SP and FS, just as Vincent has to skate a senior ISU event before Worlds to get the senior TES minimums (as first alternate to an injured Jason, he must do this).

Bradie and Amber both have JGP results from the 2015-16 season, and IIRC, the rule is that TES minimums can be earned either in the previous season or the current season.

Yes, after Vincent was named as first alternate for Worlds, Lynn Rutherford tweeted (I'm paraphrasing) that for that reason, he would indeed be competing at a Senior B to get the minimum TES.

---

.... And great that Mirai will go to 4CC's despite some speculation that Ashley was going for the Olympic test run. Other than getting a feel for the venue and the rink in South Korea, are there other benefits for Olympic hopefuls to attend?

Good question, and I don't know the answer regarding any other benefits that are specifically related to the Olympics.

I do remember someone like Patrick or Tessa and Scott (I don't remember who exactly) discussing how helpful it is to get familiar with a venue in advance. The general concept being that it is an advantage not to show up "cold" for the Olympic Games and to be forced to quickly get acquainted with a new place -- at the same time that you are adjusting to a very different time zone and all kinds of other things that are not the same as at home. When one is on the verge of one of the biggest competitions of your life, I think the idea is to minimize stress and to conserve mental and physical energy.

I have had temporary backstage access at large venues like Madison Square Garden ... and have needed to concentrate on not getting lost in what seems like a maze. At least for me, it takes some time to learn shortcuts and tricks to navigate the backstage maze more easily and/or efficiently. For example, knowing in advance literally where the bathrooms are within different sections of the big maze would save a little time and mental energy over the duration of the Games.

That said, only Ashley knows what is best for her. If training for Worlds takes precedence for her, she has my full support.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Nathan should have no problem placing top 5, but Jason placing 8th or lower is certainly not a sure thing.

It's definitely not a sure thing, but there is likely to be a huge drop-off in the scores after Javier/Patrick/Nathan/Shoma/Jin/Yuzuru. A couple of guys might sneak in there with them, but Jason could be the top of that next group, and should earn the highest PCS of that second tier.

 

[mrrice]

It's definitely not a sure thing, but there is likely to be a huge drop-off in the scores after Javier/Patrick/Nathan/Shoma/Jin/Yuzuru. A couple of guys might sneak in there with them, but Jason could be the top of that next group, and should earn the highest PCS of that second tier.

I definitely think that Jason is capable of a top 10 finish. In fact, I think he'll be around 8th. I expect Mikhail Kolyada will make the final flight which will push one of the skaters you've mentioned out of the final flight. Like it or not, Jason deserves his huge PCS number and I expect that to keep him at the top of the second to last flight. What I really care about, are the performances themselves. If Nathan is able to repeat his performances at Worlds, I am certain he will medal. In fact, he could win......Wouldn't that be awesome. Who was our last World Champion? I would guess that it's Evan, right?

 

[tzazu]

aren't you all forgetting Reynolds - he is improving quite rapidly and has multi quads?
I imagine USFS rationale was that Jason is very consistent and has the respect of the international judges and so is less likely to have the kind of disaster that Nam suffered last year whereas Vincent is much less recognized internationally and had a mediocre jr season . Just my thoughts !

I was only quoting a previous post, to show that the posibilities for Vincent to hold a better position than an injured Jason were more or less the same. It was not a forecast for Worlds, the ice is very slippery :yes:

 

[karne]

When I bring out the "Jason skates beautifully and I don't care" mantra, it's not about his placements. It's that I, personally, don't care about the placements. That just seems such a leap for some folks (I'm not talking about you, Mrs. P, just going off generally) that they simply cannot comprehend it is so. But it is.

At Worlds, el henry, it's not just about one skater. It's about that skater and their contribution to the team. Now granted, the US men would not be in this position if the ISU criteria for three spots weren't so freaking stupid, since none of Max, Adam or Grant did anything wrong in Boston, but there is one simple fact: placements in Helsinki will determine how many spots a country has at the Olympics.

Now go look at the pictures of Max from Nationals in 2014 and maybe you'll comprehend why this is so damned important to some of us.

 

[Mrs. P]

At Worlds, el henry, it's not just about one skater. It's about that skater and their contribution to the team. Now granted, the US men would not be in this position if the ISU criteria for three spots weren't so freaking stupid, since none of Max, Adam or Grant did anything wrong in Boston, but there is one simple fact: placements in Helsinki will determine how many spots a country has at the Olympics.

Now go look at the pictures of Max from Nationals in 2014 and maybe you'll comprehend why this is so damned important to some of us.

When I bring out the "Jason skates beautifully and I don't care" mantra, it's not about his placements. It's that I, personally, don't care about the placements. That just seems such a leap for some folks (I'm not talking about you, Mrs. P, just going off generally) that they simply cannot comprehend it is so. But it is.

Until someone says "It's a sport". Then I hit them with my old lady cane and it's all over

I wish I could draw a Venn diagram. I think Jason's fans/detractors/observers fall into these categories.

- Fans who simply enjoy his skating and want him to continue for additional opportunities to compete so the can enjoy it some more.
- Fans that believe that his talent and abilities and competitive mindset will enable him to reach whatever competitive goals he has.
- People who don't like his skating because of their perceptions that he does not have the tech goods to compete.
- People who don't care about his skating one way or another but doesn't think he has the tech to compete.
- People who might not be a fan, but can acknowledge that he unique skills and talents that make him a worthy competitor on the world stage.

Basically you have people of different mindsets trying to talk about his skating. So hence if you're:

- "Beautiful skating fan" : "Yay! More opportunities to see Jason."
- "Technical admirer": "Yay! Jason has a chance to prove people wrong and I think he has the ability to." OR "I hope he can recover from his injury cause I think he can do a lot when he his healthy."
- Detractor: This bites. He doesn't have a quad. I don't get his programs! USFS is so biased for him! He's injured! We won't get three spots. Send Vincent!
- Observer : "I'm not sure if Jason will recover in time to help US get three spots."
- Acknowledging Observer: I think that Jason can reasonably score high enough to get three spots.

It's hard to have a discussion when you have all these different viewpoints at play.

I feel like that one guy that wrote about donuts from the lens of different social media platforms. Mmmmm donuts.

 

[karne]

But you can appreciate Jason's skating and acknowledge his strengths, and be his fan, while at the same time caring about placements.

When we got to the end of 2014 Nats I was crying for three separate reasons: one, that Joshua's SL was so beautiful; two, that Jason had made the Olympic team, and was so happy, and had done his Riverdance perfectly; but most of all, because of the heartbreakingly sad expression on Max's face when he realised he was staying at home. I can't not care about placements, because I never wanted to see that face again.

And to me, much as I respect el henry, his stance comes off to me as "nah nah nah, my skater is beautiful and artistic and the federation loves him so I don't care about placements because I'll never need to worry about them".

 

[Mrs. P]

But you can appreciate Jason's skating and acknowledge his strengths, and be his fan, while at the same time caring about placements.

When we got to the end of 2014 Nats I was crying for three separate reasons: one, that Joshua's SL was so beautiful; two, that Jason had made the Olympic team, and was so happy, and had done his Riverdance perfectly; but most of all, because of the heartbreakingly sad expression on Max's face when he realised he was staying at home. I can't not care about placements, because I never wanted to see that face again.

And to me, much as I respect el henry, his stance comes off to me as "nah nah nah, my skater is beautiful and artistic and the federation loves him so I don't care about placements because I'll never need to worry about them".

Hence why I wished I could draw a Venn Diagram. I do believe the circles/mindset intersect. But I believe most people sort of fall outside the intersection.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I wish I could draw a Venn diagram. I think Jason's fans/detractors/observers fall into these categories.

- Fans who simply enjoy his skating and want him to continue for additional opportunities to compete so the can enjoy it some more.
- Fans that believe that his talent and abilities and competitive mindset will enable him to reach whatever competitive goals he has.
- People who don't like his skating because of their perceptions that he does not have the tech goods to compete.
- People who don't care about his skating one way or another but doesn't think he has the tech to compete.
- People who might not be a fan, but can acknowledge that he unique skills and talents that make him a worthy competitor on the world stage.

Basically you have people of different mindsets trying to talk about his skating. So hence if you're:

- "Beautiful skating fan" : "Yay! More opportunities to see Jason."
- "Technical admirer": "Yay! Jason has a chance to prove people wrong and I think he has the ability to." OR "I hope he can recover from his injury cause I think he can do a lot when he his healthy."
- Detractor: This bites. He doesn't have a quad. I don't get his programs! USFS is so biased for him! He's injured! We won't get three spots. Send Vincent!
- Observer : "I'm not sure if Jason will recover in time to help US get three spots."
- Acknowledging Observer: I think that Jason can reasonably score high enough to get three spots.

You got me in bold. I don't enjoy Jason's skating but I think he has the best chance to secure a high enough placement for 3 Olympic spots. Vincent is exciting but if things go off at all in his program, he will get bad scores. I also don't think Vincent can break into top 6 guys at his best, since he hasn't even won a junior international event.

 

[sheetz]

I think under the circumstances this was the best decision. If Vincent had the TES minimums I might feel differently, and perhaps they might have chosen to send Jason and Vincent to 4CC for a skate off.

 

[skatelikewind1966]

But you are mistaken about Bradie.

In her most recent comp before Nats, she won the bronze at a Challenger: Tallinn Cup, where she placed above Mariah Bell.

Great catch, that's why I'm on this board, so I can learn about these things. I've always believed that the Challenger Series was not truly representative of "the best" skaters at a specific level from around the world . I thought (minus points, content mins, etc.)
1. Worlds was the best sample of the best skaters in the world for that season (subjective to each federation)
2. 4ccs was still for the elite skaters but "the pool" opened a little wider to include more skaters, (subjective to each federation)
3. GP was each federation selecting skaters to potentially earn a spot at the Final, the most difficult to qualify,
4. The CS opened up to the largest pool of skaters (subjective to each federation)

Am I even close in terms of "importance" or talent levels, etc., or am I way off?

 

[frida80]

Great catch, that's why I'm on this board, so I can learn about these things. I've always believed that the Challenger Series was not truly representative of "the best" skaters at a specific level from around the world . I thought (minus points, content mins, etc.)
1. Worlds was the best sample of the best skaters in the world for that season (subjective to each federation)
2. 4ccs was still for the elite skaters but "the pool" opened a little wider to include more skaters, (subjective to each federation)
3. GP was each federation selecting skaters to potentially earn a spot at the Final, the most difficult to qualify,
4. The CS opened up to the largest pool of skaters (subjective to each federation)

Am I even close in terms of "importance" or talent levels, etc., or am I way off?

Pretty much. Challenges are even easier to win that JGP. Japanese and Russian juniors make it very tough to make the podium.

 

[ice coverage]

I wish I could draw a Venn diagram. I think Jason's fans/detractors/observers fall into these categories. ...

My school days of drawing Venn diagrams on a blackboard are in the distant past ... and at this point, Venn diagrams make me think first of Seth Meyers :hopelessness: .

Which I will use as an ersatz segue to an off-topic pop-culture mention that Nathan was the subject of an admiring tweet from Lisa Vanderpump yesterday:

https://twitter.com/LisaVanderpump/status/823300137598402561 (Jan 22)​

When Ernie Utah Stevens retweeted her tweet, I vaguely recognized her name as someone from reality TV. I see now that she is or was one of the Real Housewives, who has 1.35 million Twitter followers. I am not a RH fan, but if Nathan has permeated the consciousness of someone from that realm, perhaps it is a small sign that he can help the popularity of figure skating???

ETA:

Not sure how new a development, but Nathan now has the same agent at IMG as Gracie.
I imagine Nathan will attract a mainstream sponsor for the Olympic season.​

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... Bradie was the 2015 Jr Champ so she earned that right to compete in front of a larger audience. However, she was given 3 opportunities to represent the US internationally and unfortunately she was unable to break the top 5, let alone make the podium in any event. ...

Great catch, that's why I'm on this board, so I can learn about these things. I've always believed that the Challenger Series was not truly representative of "the best" skaters at a specific level from around the world . I thought (minus points, content mins, etc.) ...

If you're moving on to discuss the relative merits of Challengers vs. other internationals, no problem.

All I was and am saying is that Bradie has been on an international podium, contrary to your original post.

 

[skatelikewind1966]

Pretty much. Challenges are even easier to win that JGP. Japanese and Russian juniors make it very tough to make the podium.

Thanks for the post - just don't don't forget the Koreans. So it doesn't make sense, IMO, to include Bradie's performance at Tallin (based upon my logic used in my original post). It is also why I am not 100% sold on Mariah because if she has truly turned the corner she should be able to consistently beat competitors like Bradie. Or maybe Mariah is in the process of turning that ever elusive corner that The Queen made look so attainable.

 

[skatelikewind1966]

If you're moving on to discuss the relative merits of Challengers vs. other internationals, no problem.

All I was and am saying is that Bradie has been on an international podium, contrary to your original post.

Yes, I was inquiring about the relative merits of CS vs. Other internationals.

If what friday said is accurate about CS being less competitive than GPs, I personally do not consider medaling at a less competitive competition to be as big of an accomplishment compared to medaling at a more highly competitive competition. Since I've always considered Tallin CS to be less competitive, I give Bradie credit but I do not consider it when looking at other events like 4cc, GP Finals, etc. This may be a flawed opinion or interpretation of the merits of each competition?

 

[NanaPat]

My theory has been that Castelli/Tran wouldd not get Four Continents b/c it is the Olympic test event in Korea.

They can't go to the 2018 Olympics b/c Tran does not have citizenship.

So more strategic (for 2018, including the team event) to let three pairs who have a shot at 2018 get the experience at the Olympic venue???

I also wondered if Castelli/Tran are being pushed aside because they're not Olympic eligible. However, I didn't see that anywhere in the team selection criteria. Is the published criteria different from the one actually used?

 

[brightphoton]

I also wondered if Castelli/Tran are being pushed aside because they're not Olympic eligible. However, I didn't see that anywhere in the team selection criteria. Is the published criteria different from the one actually used?

Why is Canadian Mervin Tran even competing at our nationals? Didn't he learn his lesson from the last Olympics, when Japan wouldn't give him citizenship just to compete at the Olympics? I expect he'll try to get an American green card now. He must really not want to compete for Canada.

 

[karne]

If what friday said is accurate about CS being less competitive than GPs, I personally do not consider medaling at a less competitive competition to be as big of an accomplishment compared to medaling at a more highly competitive competition.

The CS serves a purpose. Its purpose is not for GP skaters, it is for those who are not yet on the GP or only have one. It is for little country skaters to get minimums and earn the ranking points and prize money they would otherwise be locked out of by the big country skaters.

Why is Canadian Mervin Tran even competing at our nationals? Didn't he learn his lesson from the last Olympics, when Japan wouldn't give him citizenship just to compete at the Olympics? I expect he'll try to get an American green card now. He must really not want to compete for Canada.

To be fair, pairs can be hard. There's a lot of cross-pollenation.