US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)

[drivingmissdaisy]

Mirai sort of got the shot end of the stick arguably because there could be an argument for her to go to worlds. While it is criteria based - again that can be fudged so to speak, one could argue forget criteria Karen and Mariah get to go but not Vincent? Seems somewhat contradictory.

Honestly, I think this is mostly about Vincent not having a qualifying score and virtually no senior experience. Rather than having a few skaters on pins and needles waiting to see whether Vincent achieves that score, the USFSA has a quality skater who had a good season that can attend worlds without any complication. As for Mirai, she has no compelling result to look to that suggests she can be a factor at Worlds. She won the Autumn Classic but didn't beat anyone who will be a factor at Worlds.

 

[Skater Boy]

I thought she was top ten at worlds and did well at 4ccs last year? Anyways, it might kind of be karma after all this intricate and unique way of using criteria to pick the US team to get 3 spots that it backfires. I wonder what they would have done had Adam been able to go to worlds? More interesting, I wonder how Max and Gracie feel after their disappointing nationals. Will we see a retirement? What about Grant and Caroline who showed some spunk and who are often forgotten will this year spurn them on?

 

[concorde]

Honestly, I think this is mostly about Vincent not having a qualifying score and virtually no senior experience. Rather than having a few skaters on pins and needles waiting to see whether Vincent achieves that score, the USFSA has a quality skater who had a good season that can attend worlds without any complication. As for Mirai, she has no compelling result to look to that suggests she can be a factor at Worlds. She won the Autumn Classic but didn't beat anyone who will be a factor at Worlds.

I thought Polina was selected for the Olympics without the qualifying scores.Then she was sent to get them.

I think USFS made the right Worlds selection for the ladies. I disagree about the men.

 

[Mrs. P]

I thought Polina was selected for the Olympics without the qualifying scores.Then she was sent to get them.

I think USFS made the right Worlds selection for the ladies. I disagree about the men.

At the time, you could get your minimum TES from a senior or junior competition. So Polina already had the minimums cause of her JGP scores.

Now the rule requires that senior worlds requires TES qualification from a seniors competition and juniors worlds from a junior competition.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I thought she was top ten at worlds and did well at 4ccs last year? Anyways, it might kind of be karma after all this intricate and unique way of using criteria to pick the US team to get 3 spots that it backfires.

Top ten at worlds is a nicer way of saying she was 10th. She skated well and lost to every USA, RUS, and JPN skater participating. Since two of our women will need to beat several skaters from those countries (and CAN/ITA), I don't think a 10th place finish at a home event is a good enough result to bump out the bronze medalist. It's pretty clear we aren't going to have three Olympic slots in the ladies event no matter who we send, so we might as well give the spots to the top finishers.

 

[concorde]

It used to be you could skate at both Junior and Senior Worlds in the same year. Has that changed?

 

[Mrs. P]

It used to be you could skate at both Junior and Senior Worlds in the same year. Has that changed?

There is a rule, IIRC that states that once you compete as a senior, you cannot go back and compete as a junior.

I can't remember if that rule was passed or it's a rule that goes into effect after 2018. Either way, I believe you can still compete in both junior and senior worlds this season.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think USFS made the right Worlds selection for the ladies. I disagree about the men.

I was surprised when I saw the men's team announced, but I didn't know then that Vincent didn't have a qualifying senior score. It could be hard for him to peak at worlds if he has to travel to an event he hasn't planned on attending, peak for that event to get a qualifying score, then try to quickly prepare at Worlds hoping for a top 10 finish.

 

[ice coverage]

... More interesting, I wonder how Max and Gracie feel after their disappointing nationals. Will we see a retirement? ...

In Max's post-FS interview at Nats, he already told Coughlin that he is looking forward to starting off the next season right :yes:.

 

[karne]

At the time, you could get your minimum TES from a senior or junior competition. So Polina already had the minimums cause of her JGP scores.

Now the rule requires that senior worlds requires TES qualification from a seniors competition and juniors worlds from a junior competition.

And if this season's rules had been in place last season, we would have had exactly the same scenario with Nathan Chen.

 

[Mrs. P]

And if this season's rules had been in place last season, we would have had exactly the same scenario with Nathan Chen.

That's true. Though, like Vincent, he was sent to a senior B (Tallinn Trophy). He W/D but I'm not sure why. If this year's rules were in place, he might have not W/D (other than if he had an injury or sickness of course).

 

[Chemistry66]

There is a rule, IIRC that states that once you compete as a senior, you cannot go back and compete as a junior.

I can't remember if that rule was passed or it's a rule that goes into effect after 2018. Either way, I believe you can still compete in both junior and senior worlds this season.

I believe this was proposed, but did not pass. What did happen instead was the "must earn Junior minimums in Junior comps/Senior Minimums in Senior comps" rule.

 

[narcissa]

And really injuries can happen at any time. Just look at all the off-ice injuries we've seen this season. Nathan, I'm sure, has learned the necessary lessons from last year to prevent any freak injuries the best he can.

ETA: Phil Hersh's take (FWIW) on the World selection: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2017/01/24/214245730


He also thinks the men have a better shot at 3 spots than the ladies.

Well, we have one medal contender on the men's side, and probably none on the ladies, so..

 

[Mrs. P]

FYI, regarding Jason's timeline with his stress fracture:

http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2017/01/13/jason-brown-figure-skating-nationals-championships/

Then Brown started feeling right leg soreness before his next competition in November. He finished seventh at NHK Trophy in Japan, his performances impacted by a lack of strength in that leg.

He returned to Colorado and continued training, but the soreness and fatigue turned into sharp pain. He received the diagnosis on Dec. 16, exactly five weeks before the U.S. Championships short program, and was told the recovery would take four to six weeks.

Brown returned to skating two weeks ago [Dec. 30 - exactly two weeks after receiving the stress fracture diagnosis] and started doing jumps on Tuesday [Jan. 10 -- just under four weeks after the diagnosis].

And Ice Network article on the Men's SP (http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2017/01/21/214041810/marvelous-short-lands-chen-comfortably-in-front)

Brown told reporters he re-started practicing his triple flip and triple lutz on Friday [Jan. 13] of last week, and began doing triple axels the beginning of this week [Jan. 16]. Off ice, he wore a protective support boot.
"My biggest hope is that if I can buy myself more time for Four Continents and the world championships, (I will be) 100 percent," he said. "The last thing I want to do is go to worlds or Four Continents at 70 or 80 percent."

So logistically -- if you want to believe this timeline -- he should have be close to full recovery by the end of this month at this latest. And he emphasizes he wants to be 100 percent at 4CC-- under this timeline that would seem to be possible. But of course he's human and unfortunate things happen. But the timeline seems to check based on how he did at Nationals.

 

[brightphoton]

Well, we have one medal contender on the men's side, and probably none on the ladies, so..

Are you saying the 2016 world silver medalist isn't a medal contender at 2017 World's, nor the lady who just beat the 2016 silver medalist at Nationals?

 

[coldblueeyes]

Are you saying the 2016 world silver medalist isn't a medal contender at 2017 World's, nor the lady who just beat the 2016 silver medalist at Nationals?

I think that's exactly what they are saying. And Worlds is not in the US, so there's that, too. Ice is slippery, ofc, but...

 

[frida80]

Are you saying the 2016 world silver medalist isn't a medal contender at 2017 World's, nor the lady who just beat the 2016 silver medalist at Nationals?

Last year is different that this year. This year, there are a lot more medal contenders that last year. Kaetlyn and Pogo have improved greatly. Gabby is scoring well in competition. Ashley isn't have a good season in comparison to last season, lots under rotation calls. She's also feeling the pressure of having to deliver. She feel even more pressure without Gracie to anchor 3 spots. It's strongly possible, but in comparison to men Nathan has a much better shot at making the podium that Ashley does.

 

[andromache]

I feel like Mariah and Karen are both being a little underestimated - if either skates well, I see no reason why they shouldn't score around the same level as Maria Sotskova. It is the first Worlds for all 3, and both Karen and Maria are a little rough in regards to having world-class choreography, though both sell it well (and both struggle with underrotations). A clean Mariah, with the attention to detail in her programs and her skating skills, spin quality, etc., is really quite honestly better than Ashley, and could podium under the right circumstances.

Or are we just assuming Mariah and Karen will be lowballed in PCS because reputation?

 

[kalee]

Last year is different that this year. This year, there are a lot more medal contenders that last year. Kaetlyn and Pogo have improved greatly. Gabby is scoring well in competition. Ashley isn't have a good season in comparison to last season, lots under rotation calls. She's also feeling the pressure of having to deliver. She feel even more pressure without Gracie to anchor 3 spots. It's strongly possible, but in comparison to men Nathan has a much better shot at making the podium that Ashley does.

And on top of having those 3 in the mix, Carolina Kostner is back too.
IMO, Mariah or Karen making the top 10 is more likely than Ashley making the podium.

 

[FlattFan]

And on top of having those 3 in the mix, Carolina Kostner is back too.
IMO, Mariah or Karen making the top 10 is more likely than Ashley making the podium.

Back with a full set of triples and 3x3! I think by Worlds, her PCS will rise further. It's hard to get on the podium for any american lady.