State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
Based on what I saw at 4CC I'm seriously worried about the US retaining 3 spots for next year...
Didn't watch, only looked at the scores...at least we can content ourselves with the knowledge that 4CCs tends NOT to be predictive of success at Worlds?
If our girls are going to be inconsistent, then I'd rather they bomb here than at Worlds.
- Joined
- May 19, 2011
Agreed but the unnerving thing is this is how they've been performing all season. They are consistently inconsistent. Karen typically bombs the SP and Mariah has been unstable as well. We saw flashes of brilliance at nationals but that was more the exception than the norm. This is the norm, that's why I'm worried. I was hoping something may have clicked at nationals for both but so far...
Maybe they'll both turn it around in the FS. Maybe not. I guess we'll see...
- Joined
- Mar 26, 2014
No double standards. We are talking about Medvedeva vs. Karen aren't we? Medvedeva won everything as a junior in her last season. Karen was never near big junior podiums. I understand she had injuries. Karen had chances during their first joint competition at SA last season. Medvedeva just appeared and her skating was a bit rough. And her score of 206 was not in the area her scores are now. If Karen skated clean her FS she could have made a serious statement for the future. But she fell twice. Since then Medvedeva only progressed and Karen, well, she had very nice performances during this year Nationals. But that’s it. Hence, I would not compare them and would not complain about double standards. Just skate consistently clean 7 triple programs, American ladies. And I bet, judges will appreciate that in no time at all.
And 4CC just proves that. There is no comparison so far, let's be fair.
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Both Karen and Mariah are strong long program skaters. Karen also just got the flu, so that clearly affected her performance. It's also common after a surprise win like these two have had to bomb the next competition. Alissa bombed 4CC after winning nationals in 2011. She came in 4th at worlds. Better to get these nerves out now and hone in at worlds.
Mariah, Mirai and Karen performed how they usually perform. I'm not surprised by their placements. I expect Ashley to place high at Worlds (probably not medal though) but I don't think either of those two will place high enough to help her keep 3 spots. Their lovely skaters but instead of hoping they'll do a 180, I'm just going to be realistic. The U.S men have more of a shot imo to get 3 spots than the American ladies have of keeping theirs based on how all of them typically skate.
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2017
Totally agree... Judges always apreciated consistency in programs so all juniors have to learn to skate several programs without falls in international competitions.
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- Joined
- Nov 20, 2015
I really wish that Mirai was on the Worlds team, not sure who I'd replace, but on the international level I trust Mirai more. I'm really missing Gracie and Polina at the moment. I know Gracie has not been to form this year, but we need her back on her game. And Polina was solid and consistent. I know KAren won NAtionals and has the skills, but I felt like we were sending a very solid B team to 4CCs. I seriously doubt us retaining 3 spots, and I might be a little less terrified of that if Mirai was going. I can picture Mirai in 9th and Ashley in 4th. The top two Canadian ladies are at least showing up at 4CCs in strong form.
- Joined
- May 19, 2011
Agreed. That's always the hope that this is just a test run to get the nerves and jitters out and sometimes it works, like with Alissa. Maybe with these two as well. But I'm just looking at their averages this year.
Internationally Karen averages about 56-58 in the SP and 115-120 in the FS. Solid scores but not great. She is sick so she gets a bit of a pass but the reality is this tends to be how she performs and scores when she's not sick. If she can hit her average in the FS she should be able to pull up in the standings.
Same thing for Mariah. Looking at her international scores over the season, she averages about 60+ in the SP so she's right on target as well. In the FS however her scores are a bit more sporadic, ranging from a low of 105 to a high of 130. She does really well at some and fair at others. Based on her solid SP I'd expect her to hit somewhere between 120-125 in the FS which is really good but likely won't hold up for a medal here.
I guess I'm being realistic when it comes to their chances at this event and at Worlds. Internationally Karen usually gets around 180. Mariah is tougher to predict b/c her FS performances are a bit uneven. Her total scores have been 184, 161, 194 and 167...up and down.
Hopefully both of them will prove me wrong
But considering Mirai was 10th last year (nearly 10 points behind 9th) with a 186.65, we may need to prepare ourselves...
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I think they should pick one of Mariah and Mirai here. Mariah is inconsistent as much as Mirai but Mirai appears to have better rep with international judges. Remember Mariah also bombed both the Sp and Lp at national. Don't know why they made up their mind about world team so early. Wait and see.
- Joined
- May 19, 2011
Mariah didn't bomb, she just had errors in both programs. She fell in the SP and had issues on her first two jumping passes in the FS, but finished out the rest of the program cleanly.
I do agree they pick the World team too early. Especially in cases where you're dealing with inexperienced competitors (both Karen and Mariah will be debuting at Worlds this year), I think the committee should take 4CC into account.
The national champ is entitled to a world's spot. Next year, they lose that privilege. I would feel better with Mirai and Mariah too, but I want to at least give Karen a shot at redeeming herself.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
I think the best bet at this point would be Ashley/Mariah/Mirai. Mariah and Mirai are inconsistent, but not as big of wild cards as Karen Chen. But Mirai skated a very bad LP at Nationals.
But the team has been picked, and there won't be any changes now.
Mariah has much more limited international experience than Karen, so I think this is definitely something for her to build on for Worlds. For Karen, it just looks like another disaster on her very up-and-down career. She could hit at Worlds like she did at Nationals, but it's unlikely.
But the team has been picked, and there won't be any changes now.
Mariah has much more limited international experience than Karen, so I think this is definitely something for her to build on for Worlds. For Karen, it just looks like another disaster on her very up-and-down career. She could hit at Worlds like she did at Nationals, but it's unlikely.
Agreed, they should've made the team after 4CC. Karen can be brilliant but hasn't shown that internationally unlike Mirai (20164CC) and Mariah (2016SkAM). She's a huge wild card compared to Mirai and Mariah who are safe 10th place finishers at Worlds IMO.
Then again, hopefully there isn't a Liam Firus situation...
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2016
I wouldn't say it is unlikely. I think Karen very well could hit at worlds, but even if she does I don't think it will matter if her scores remain low internationally. She has had some bright moments this season and they were not rewarded as I feel they should have been.
Karen has worked hard this season and rightfully earned her spot to worlds. Miriah could very well rise as well. Mirai bombed at nationals badly, it was painful to watch. She could have solidified her place on the worlds team, she had a chance but she completely blew it. It's not that big of a mystery why the USFSA didn't want to send her.
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2016
Even with Gracie down, if we had Polina things wouldn't look so grim. I just wish they both didn't go out at the same time, this was not what we needed this season.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
2017 U.S. champions were not guaranteed spots on the world team.
The new rule already went into effect this year.
http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2017/01/20/214003280/new-rule-impacts-world-team-selection-procedure
Wishing Mirai, Mariah, and Karen well for the FS at Four Continents
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Mirai isn't exactly reliable either when the pressure is on her. Her best results internationally seem to be when nothing is at stake.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
I'm not saying that anyone has or hasn't earned their spots - Karen definitely did - I was just speculating as to who I think would be our best bet for 3 spots.
Karen has been lowballed internationally due to her lack of consistency, true. But I am curious how this will all play out at Worlds. Will there be motivation to boost some scores because, from a $$$ standpoint, the more spots the bigger skating countries (US, Canada, Russia, Japan) have at the Olympics, the better?
I'm not sure if it all goes that deep, just throwing around ideas.
Ashley needs to get out there and do what she can do. Mariah or Karen have to skate to their potential. They don't need to overachieve or do something they aren't capable of. If either skates her best, they both have the total package.
Even so, not having Polina is a bummer. She has probably a lower ceiling than Mariah/Karen due to lack of speed and poor programs, but when you just need someone to place 6th-10th, she's your girl.
That's fair. She was great at Worlds last year, when Ashley and Gracie were both solid enough to more than secure those spots.
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2014
Mirai should be given another chance of skating at the Worlds. Watching her FS at the Nationals might be one of the saddest moments I have ever experienced. She has been working so hard, but finally... Perhaps I am an overly irrational person sometimes.
