US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)

[breadstal]

In Men's LP thread this thread was already predicted

 

[TontoK]

Unless Jason is not fit enough to compete at worlds, Vincent can't go. What matters the most is who will go to the Olympics next year.

Two spots: likely Nathan and Vincent.

Three spots: likely Nathan, Vincent and Adam or Josh or Max.

Although he didn't perform well this event, I'm still not off the Torgeshev bandwagon.

In discussing the probably mix for a three-spot Olympic Team, I'd discount Adam and put Andrew T on the list. Otherwise, I don't disagree with your rundown.

However, I point out that a year ago Nathan was a national bronze medalist with a very severe injury and Vincent wasn't really on anyone's radar.

A lot can happen in a year.

 

[el henry]

In Men's LP thread this thread was already predicted

Since Jason v. Vincent has been pretty much the only topic of conversation already for *21* screens in the Evaluating USFS Worlds Team thread, even before JW took place, that "prediction" had already happened.

ETA: Not to mention the 4CCs and Worlds Thread. Sorry, so many threads, I got them all confused. :

 

[mrrice]

Although he didn't perform well this event, I'm still not off the Torgeshev bandwagon.

In discussing the probably mix for a three-spot Olympic Team, I'd discount Adam and put Andrew T on the list. Otherwise, I don't disagree with your rundown.

However, I point out that a year ago Nathan was a national bronze medalist with a very severe injury and Vincent wasn't really on anyone's radar.

A lot can happen in a year.

I don't even know what to say about this comment. Discount Adam?? Like it or not, Adam has a big reputation with International Judges and so does Raf. Let's say that Vincent pulls up and medals at Jr Worlds. Adam WON Jr Worlds twice. But for his injury, he would be going to Worlds instead of Jason. Vincent is great however, there's a gap as wide as the Grand Canyon between them when it comes to components. The fact that Andrew didn't make even make the free skate at Jr Worlds should give you pause. It certainly gives me pause.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I think the US sending Brown is the safer option because his PCS will be guaranteed, whereas it's not a sure thing that Zhou can replicate his JWC performances. However, Zhou has the greater scoring potential (if he were to up his SP content), given Brown having technical difficulty issues. Next season, however, I fully expect Zhou and Chen to dominate the US men's field so really, it's a matter of Jason helping his own spot at the Olympics by ensuring 3 spots at Worlds this year. Brown can do it - say, Chen places 3rd, Brown only needs a top 10 placement.

 

[Jammers]

Although he didn't perform well this event, I'm still not off the Torgeshev bandwagon.

In discussing the probably mix for a three-spot Olympic Team, I'd discount Adam and put Andrew T on the list. Otherwise, I don't disagree with your rundown.

However, I point out that a year ago Nathan was a national bronze medalist with a very severe injury and Vincent wasn't really on anyone's radar.

A lot can happen in a year.

Andrew T is only 15 so he won't be a factor for the Olympics next year even though he will be a force in the years to come if he can be more consistent. If there are 3 spots for next year it will be Nathan and Vincent with Adam, Jason, Max and maybe Josh fighting for that 3rd spot but no one is beating these kids if they land their jumps.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Next season, however, I fully expect Zhou and Chen to dominate the US men's field so really, it's a matter of Jason helping his own spot at the Olympics by ensuring 3 spots at Worlds this year. Brown can do it - say, Chen places 3rd, Brown only needs a top 10 placement.

While this is the likeliest scenario, I would not be surprised if Chen and/or Zhou are unable to maintain their form. The US has had a lot of men who have a few good events then completely lose consistency with the jumps, whether that's due to growth, injuries, or increased pressure. It would be nice if they can maintain their jumps because those are the key to defeating the more artistic skaters from other countries because there's no hard ceiling on TES.

 

[andromache]

While this is the likeliest scenario, I would not be surprised if Chen and/or Zhou are unable to maintain their form. The US has had a lot of men who have a few good events then completely lose consistency with the jumps, whether that's due to growth, injuries, or increased pressure. It would be nice if they can maintain their jumps because those are the key to defeating the more artistic skaters from other countries because there's no hard ceiling on TES.

I think Nathan has nerves of steel - if he loses his consistency, it'll be due to growth/injuries. If all stays well physically, I expect a huge increase in his "artistry" and skating skills next season. Considering how much he has improved over the course of this season, I expect even better next season.

Vincent I'm less sure about. He's doing well enough with Tammy Gambill obviously, but can she give him what he needs to move forward? Remains to be seen, since she's never had a skater with great senior success. Staying with Tom Z. for jumps is a good idea, but his actual skating needs a lot of work.

Give me Josh Farris on the Olympic team next year please .

 

[chuckm]

Nathan has not only been consistent, but he has actually skated better at each event this season. Few skaters have shown anywhere near Nathan's consistency.

I was quite impressed with Vincent today. He wanted to win, so he skated a clean FS with three quads and did it as if it were a walk in the park. No, he didn't get high PCS scores, but the fact is no men except the three Russians got high PCS scores.

The TES comes from the tech team, the PCS from the judges---and men's panels for both SP and FS were highly unbalanced, with most of the judges from former SSRs or Eastern Europe. Vincent knew he could win only with a clean FS, and that was what he did.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Nathan has nerves of steel - if he loses his consistency, it'll be due to growth/injuries.

That's my concern with Nathan, since he has already had a major injury that kept him off the ice for quite a while. It's impressive that his arsenal of quads is the same as Yuna's arsenal of triples, but he has to do a lot of repetitions to keep all those different jumps competition ready.

 

[mrrice]

Nathan has not only been consistent, but he has actually skated better at each event this season. Few skaters have shown anywhere near Nathan's consistency.

I was quite impressed with Vincent today. He wanted to win, so he skated a clean FS with three quads and did it as if it were a walk in the park. No, he didn't get high PCS scores, but the fact is no men except the three Russians got high PCS scores.

The TES comes from the tech team, the PCS from the judges---and men's panels for both SP and FS were highly unbalanced, with most of the judges from former SSRs or Eastern Europe. Vincent knew he could win only with a clean FS, and that was what he did.

Holy Cow!! Vincent has skated his Junior Worlds Free Program? I feel like I'm in the twilight zone. How am I missing these performances?

 

[TontoK]

I don't even know what to say about this comment. Discount Adam?? Like it or not, Adam has a big reputation with International Judges and so does Raf. Let's say that Vincent pulls up and medals at Jr Worlds. Adam WON Jr Worlds twice. But for his injury, he would be going to Worlds instead of Jason. Vincent is great however, there's a gap as big as the Grand Canyon between them when it comes to components. The fact that Andrew didn't make even the free skate at Jr Worlds should give you pause. It certainly gives me pause.

My statement is based purely on technical merit. If these youngsters land these quads... and more of them are showing that they certainly can... the triple-only skaters will not have a prayer.

I get why people like Adam's skating... for the record, I don't... but it doesn't matter. I think this WC is going to be a ground-breaking event. This list of skaters with 3-5 quad LP's is really very long, and while I don't expect all of them to hit, enough will that it will shake up the sport dramatically.

Skaters are either going to suddenly develop multiple quad programs, or they will be left in the dust. Right now, in the US, those capable of the tech merit required to medal internationally are Nathan, Vincent, Max, Toregshev (and I'm admittedly crystal-balling where he can get in a year's time), and Josh (based on reports of multiple quads in the works since comeback).

And don't try selling me on Adam's 4Z. Don't even. We've seen what good ones look like now.

 

[mrrice]

Holy Cow!!! Vincent WON!!! OK, I retract my previous statement....Wow!!!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Holy Cow!!! Vincent WON!!! OK, I retract my previous statement....Wow!!!

I was gonna say with regards to your other post, did you see the FS?! Although to be fair, not many of us saw THAT coming. Clean FS with 3 quads (one a lutz) and 2 axels... At JUNIOR worlds.

What were the previous WJC FS/total score records? I'm sure Zhou absolutely destroyed them.

 

[sheetz]

What were the previous WJC FS/total score records? I'm sure Zhou absolutely destroyed them.

Previous total record for junior men: Aliev 240.07 set at the past JGPF
Previous FS record: Samohin 165.63 set about an hour before Vincent's skate

 

[chuckm]

Vincent didn't even look nervous as he skated---he was in complete control. He did not receive any negative GOE for the entire FS (although the GEO judge gave him 0s for all the jumps except the 4z, and +1 for the 4z, spins and footwork).

 

[TontoK]

Vincent didn't even look nervous as he skated---he was in complete control. He did not receive any negative GOE for the entire FS (although the GEO judge gave him 0s for all the jumps except the 4z, and +1 for the 4z, spins and footwork).

I noticed that, too. He was happy at the end, of course, but during the performance it seemed like everything was going just as he EXPECTED it to go.

No nervous head-case looks. He just went out there and delivered.

I'm hopeful that we can get that magic combo of technical wow, pretty artistry, and competitive grit. That doesn't come along very often.

 

[mrrice]

My statement is based purely on technical merit. If these youngsters land these quads... and more of them are showing that they certainly can... the triple-only skaters will not have a prayer.

I get why people like Adam's skating... for the record, I don't... but it doesn't matter. I think this WC is going to be a ground-breaking event. This list of skaters with 3-5 quad LP's is really very long, and while I don't expect all of them to hit, enough will that it will shake up the sport dramatically.

Skaters are either going to suddenly develop multiple quad programs, or they will be left in the dust. Right now, in the US, those capable of the tech merit required to medal internationally are Nathan, Vincent, Max, Toregshev (and I'm admittedly crystal-balling where he can get in a year's time), and Josh (based on reports of multiple quads in the works since comeback).

And don't try selling me on Adam's 4Z. Don't even. We've seen what good ones look like now.

Look, as a fan of Maria Butyrskaya's, I have never tried to convince people of anything. The very thought of her defeating Michelle Kwan used to get me into serious trouble. Heck, I get flack from everyone but Karne when I talk about my love for Max. Adam is done for the season and if I know him, he'll be looking closely at the rest of the Men and adjust his programs accordingly. I would imagine he will keep his bird inspired free program and plan a more competitive SP for his Olympic Season. We'll just have to wait and see.

I'm sure the "Older" skaters have seen the fire in the eyes of our young skaters. They know they need to keep up or they will be watching the games from their couches.

 

[TontoK]

[/B]

Look, as a fan of Maria Butyrskaya's, I have never tried to convince people of anything. The very thought of her defeating Michelle Kwan used to get me into serious trouble. Heck, I get flack from everyone but Karne when I talk about my love for Max. Adam is done for the season and if I know him, he'll be looking closely at the rest of the Men and adjust his programs accordingly. I would imagine he will keep his bird inspired free program and plan a more competitive SP for his Olympic Season. We'll just have to wait and see.

I'm sure the "Older" skaters have seen the fire in the eyes of our young skaters. They know they need to keep up or they will be watching the games from their couches.

All is cool.

But, I have to point out that you'll get no flack from me about fandom for Max. I love Max.

I like his vibe.

 

[mrrice]

All is cool.

But, I have to point out that you'll get no flack from me about fandom for Max. I love Max.

I like his vibe.

YAAAAAAASSSSSSS!! I'll take it.......