Wow, anyone know why the assignments came out so early?
Anyway, I'm wondering: why do the Canadian ladies have so few GP slots?
With all these newbies, is anyone really worried about the US ladies?
The newbies are Alina Zagitova, Polina Tsurskaya, Marin Honda, Kaori Sakamoto, and Yuna Shiraiwa.
The SB list isn't everything, but Alina is above all American ladies, Marin Honda is one spot behind Ashley (who's score is from WTT which a lot of people say has very inflated scoring) and ahead of all the others, Kaori is one spot behind Karen Chen and one ahead of Mirai, Polina (who was hampered by injury, so if healthy would be further up) is behind Ashley, Karen and Mirai, and Yuna is behind all the US ladies currently with GP spots, except Polina who doesn't have a SB from last season, so I would say that while anything is possible she isn't a big threat.
At COR, Mariah and Mirai have to deal with only one of the newbies, Kaori, who could definitely beat both of them. But with Radionova, Medvedeva and Kostner there, not to mention Elizabet and Wakaba who can also beat both of them, she's not the biggest thing between them and a medal.
At SC, Ashley and Karen have Marin Honda, who again is capable of beating both of them (doesn't mean she will obvs), as well as Kaetlyn, Anna and Maria Sotskova. No guarantees again, but you'd predict that Kaetlyn would probably beat both, and I would have said the same about Anna until Worlds, but who knows what she'll bring. So here, Marin could cost one or both medals potentially, but there are of course a lot of factors.
At COC, Gracie is the only US lady there, and she's joined by Alina and Marin, along with Radionova and Gabby Daleman. Who knows what form Gracie will be in, though I suppose it's possible she could be in decent but not perfect form and miss out on the podium due to the two newbies.
At NHK, Mariah and Mirai have Polina T. and Yuna, but also Kostner, Medvedeva and Miyahara, so even without Polina there (and how big a threat she is depends on her health), they weren't podium favourites, though I guess if Satoko isn't in great shape after her injury, but Polina is, Polina could keep them off the podium.
At IdF, Gracie and Polina E. have Alina and Yuna, as well as Kaetlyn, Mai, Elizabet and Maria. Again here Kaetlyn is probably the favourite and both Gracie and Polina are ? right now for different reasons. Alina beating one of them out for a podium spot with say Kaetlyn and Mai is a plausible scenario, but who knows if they would podium even without Alina.
At SA, Ashley and Karen take on Kaori and Polina T., along with Gabby, Satoko, and Anna. One of Ashley or Karen could win, but all those girls are probably also capable of beating one or both of them, so who knows.
I think the new senior girls make things tougher, but none of the US ladies were podium guarantees even without them, especially since no one is that consistent except Medvedeva.
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