- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
alaine.... most of the other girls don't have the full package or 3-3 to compete with alaine.
Ladies OGM Contenders 2018
- Thread starter mrfarmer
- Start date
alaine.... most of the other girls don't have the full package or 3-3 to compete with alaine.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
Don't forget Ripponing. Anyway, some are already arguing it. Juniorish choreo and presentation doesn't seem to be that big of an issue anymore. These days, there's only so much of what a PCS cushion can do when a skater has such a TES advantage. Plus, with clean skates and great TES, PCS goes up just enough where they aren't too behind in PCS to not win on TES as it used to be. Of course, one still has to skate well and land all of your planned content.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
in the men, TES is definitely calling the shots.... but most of the girls start with similar BV... yes... there are rippons... yes there is backloading...but it's not like any of the girls is going to come up with 4 quads in the LP and win without a decent transition package
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
You're acting like Zagitova is going to get like 5.0s in PCS. If she skates clean during the GP series and Euros watch her PCS be as high as 7.0s to mid 8.0s. Those GOEs and 10% bonuses on all of her jumping passes will add up as well. Again, she has to skate well and be consistent as one's base PCS and GOE get higher the more you show the judges you are here to stay.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
let's scroll backwards..
I have said that I don't know much about Zagitova.. the little I have seen wasn't as good as the other top contenders in terms of refinement.... however, I am sure that she will come out improved right this fall and will impress. So I never ever thought or implied that she would get 5.0 in PCS. Please do not assign thoughts to others. It's really not necessary.
What I simply wrote here is that most women have the same content. Yes, some backload... Yes some do arm variations... but you never know... maybe judges will think that an arm variation is no longer a variation if it's always there... or maybe they will be less generous if a rippon jump has little height or distance.... or maybe... oh the drama, they will penalize in choreo if backloading makes unbalanced programs
you never know.What I am saying here is that there is no lady right now, who will come up and throw many high base value jumps that nobody else is doing. Maybe Mirai could bring up the 3A and make a move... or Liza... but we don't know if those two will have that jump in their arsenal... we don't see quads... we don't see multiple quads...
so the main factor here is two clean skates all year. We don't know if all 3 Russsians who will end up in the team will have that playing for them... and that was the topic... we were simply reacting to someone calling for a Russian sweep... well... i don't think it will happen... i will be fine with being wrong if the 3 girls indeed skate flawless and beautiful programs... which can certainly happen.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
Of course it depends on the skater's planned content, but backloading all of your jumps can be the difference in about 10 points more or less in base value alone compared to someone who backloads four out of seven. Again, I was just answering your post about how you can't see more than one Russian beating the North American or Japanese skaters, and I was just arguing that Zagitova, on paper, is competitive thanks to her strategy. You said her skating was too juniorish to be a factor, and that's when I started speaking about PCS differentials and whether Zagitova, if clean and consistent all season, will be that far behind in PCS to not make it up in TES. Sure, she's not doing quads, but she currently has a high BV and TES to make it up with the non-Medvedeva skaters...and that's without an extra 2.0 points that the senior skaters received.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
so you are saying that Zagitova can earn 10 points more than the other girls...
fair enough..
so if the other top contenders score 9+ in PCS and judges might just do that, to balance that 10 points, she could end up with 8s in PCS...
we all know how at times, PCS have been used to balance things out....
10 points is one quad... not 4. that's what i have been saying all along
BTW : we haven't seen the layouts of these girls... who knows who will be backloading and to what point?
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
Again, my comment is about how you simply cannot see more than one Russian (with that one being Med) beating anyone else, and I was just saying Zagitova actually can on paper. PCS will be harder to determine and right now it's just people wishing it to be a certain way. So even if PCS was being used to even out Zagitova's 10 points in base value (not even accounting for GOE and having the same amount of elements) that means she's actually in position to be competitive to beat the North American skaters, not that she has no chance as you were saying when you said you can't see her beating them.
You're right in that nobody knows what people's planned content is, but my argument is that you cannot think Zagitova is a non-factor just based on how competitive her TES is. She may place second or she play place 8th. It's not as impossible for her as your initial posts made it sound like.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
my original post simply stated that i didn't see a russian sweep
I agreed that Medvedeva is the top dog. I didn't want to get into details about a skater I do not follow yet as much as you apparently do. So forgive me, but i will simply exit this conversation as I have said what I needed to say including that I saw Zagitova on the Russian team, which in itself means she is a factor as all Russian ladies are always a chance of medal. All 3 of them? I don't know...
If the judges were to judge and give GOE's fairly (which, never happens these days), with Meds and Zagi being both clean, it would be a crime for Zagi not to trample Meds TES-wise.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
It definitely will require all the Canadians, Japanese & Americans to falter which is unlikely...
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
It will require US/CAN/JPN #3 to falter for clean Zagi or Anna/Elena/Maria to beat them? I'd really doubt that. Even if you think the location plays a role, South Korea is still on planet earth - only so much politics can do.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Okay, granted that the gold medal already has a name on it so we are talking about silver & bronze - who do you think the judges will 'back up' if both Anna & Kaetlyn skate clean? To my mind - the answer is very clear - Kaetlyn. Same if lets say Satoko and Elena/Maria skate clean and PCS would be a deciding factor, I'd bet on Satoko (or Marin or whoever will emerge as Japan No1)
And yes, I think significance of the location should not be overlooked in this particular instance. Judges especially at Olympics tend to go with the crowd
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2009
That's the reason why Anna lost to Miyahara on GPF. But there may not be Anna to compete with Osmond and whoever will be Japanese #1 then, but Alina. When Anna gets pretty much the same 70+ TES in LP as everyone else when flawless, Alina can get significally more. She got 75 at Junior Worlds, add there choreo sequence juniors don't have and more difficult SP content (she is planning to do 3Lz-3Lo and 3F in the short, all in the second half of course) and her TES can be sky high. She even beat Medvedeva's TES at Nationals, something no one else can do. And that can give her a big advantage. She won't beat flawless Osmond I think, but have we ever seen a flawless Osmond? Even her LP at Worlds, which is the best she ever skated, was with doubled jump. And Alina, if clean and consistent all season, can beat everyone else. She doesn't even need Osmond level of PCS for that
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I also prefer Zagitova's skating. She will have all of next season to build her PCS ceiling with great skates, like we saw Julia do in 2013-14. I fully expect her to be an OGM contender. The drawback for her is that she won't have her federation fully behind her, so Evgenia probably has to falter for Alina to win.
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
That's just Canadian and Japanese #1 though. Your previous post made it sound to me as if you thought all the Americans, all the Canaidan and all the Japanese present would have to falter for a 2nd Russian girl on the podium (so 3 + 3 + 2 = 8 ladies). And that's what I objected too. I don't think Alaine Chartrand, who will likely be Canadian #3, will have a high chance of beating Russian #2. Of course it could be, and I don't mean to say Alaine is a bad skater, but between her and Alina for example, Alina is the clear favorite.
And again, yes, maybe there will be something like home field influence. But there was a GPF in South Korea before and Mao beat Yuna. There is only so much the judges can do. They can't chip away Alinas BV or start giving her 4's in PCS when she got at least 7's before. And I doubt they'd throw US or CAN #3 al the 3's in GOE either for some weird "let's hold down the Russian ladies" madness.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Yes sorry if I was not clear on that point (though there is always a chance that No 2 or 3 would rise to the occasion especially if No1 falters to deliver), of course nobody knows what's going to happen until it actually happens, all I was trying to say that 3 or even 2 Russian ladies on the podium is not an attractive proposition for the ISU in a light of the controversy of Sochi, so should the opportunity presents itself for the judges, I think the podium will likely be composed of Russian/Canadian/Japanese or American ladies and TBH it would be a more interesting outcome
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
Ah, then I understand
Yes, I think the most likely outcome would be 1 Russian, 1 Canadian and 1 Japanese if I'd have to bet now, and I think a podium with 3 different nationalities is the most likely... but it's really hard to say, as IMO the ladies field after Evgenia is very open (which is why I personally think it's very exciting!).
- Joined
- Jul 9, 2014
I see Pogo's name in a lot of these predictions. For some reason, I don't think she's going to make the team. I think Med and Zagitova are locks and with SO many talented ladies left in Russia, I think Pogo will have a hard time making the team. When she holds it together, she reminds me of my all time favorite skater, Maria Butyrskaya. She really has the ability to work a judging panel with her steely gaze and when she hits them, BIG jumps. It's her lack of consistency that worries me. I feel like I haven't seen Tuk in a million years...How is she looking? She was the IT girl in 2015. I would LOVE to be at Russian Nationals this year.
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