Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[largeman]

By rotating that triple axel, which she just did in her free skate at Champs Camp.

http://www.hudl.com/technique/video/view/iOGTdsT8?e=10308294

It's a long shot, but she's got nothing to lose.

My post was referring to Polina Tsurskaya and her Game of Thrones SP

But, thank you for sharing because Lord knows I love a good 3A. That 3A by Mirai was absolutely stunning. I am blown away.

ETA: also i love that you can play the video at 1/8x speed

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

More recently, at Worlds:
The U.S. has had at least one woman in the Top 5 for the past 6 years.
Ashley Wagner has been Top 5 for four out of the past six years, with Gracie Gold three times and Karen Chen once.

It's true that there has been only only one medal (Ashley's 2016 Worlds silver) in that stretch. But the U.S. ladies have always been in the mix.
Pretty tough to do that if they can't "reliably execute technical elements and perform engaging programs."

Which of the US women do you feel reliably complete the technical elements? Karen has not landed a 7 triple LP that I'm aware of. Ashley had the skate of her life, combined with a home score boost and missed < calls to win silver. Otherwise, she regularly get downgrades and misses level on spins. Gracie rarely skates her best. Other than Evgenia and maybe Satoko, the international competition is perhaps equally unreliable, but I don't think the US women have any solid edge over the two Canadians, the other Russians, or the Japanese.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Which of the US women do you feel reliably complete the technical elements? Karen has not landed a 7 triple LP that I'm aware of. Ashley had the skate of her life, combined with a home score boost and missed < calls to win silver. Otherwise, she regularly get downgrades and misses level on spins. Gracie rarely skates her best. Other than Evgenia and maybe Satoko, the international competition is perhaps equally unreliable, but I don't think the US women have any solid edge over the two Canadians, the other Russians, or the Japanese.

Then in that case, it's not so hard to see the U.S. sneaking in for a medal then if they other than Evgenia and Satoko are "equally unreliable" considering you were saying how it was "hard" to see an American woman medaling. Even solid Satoko seems to not place as well as others some times even when she skates solidly and others make a mistake here and there looking back at her record. I myself am not betting on an American woman medaling with Med and the juniors turning into seniors (Honda and Zagitova) and Kaetlyn and Daleman just being strong skaters with speed and huge, fully rotated jumps, but if an American woman did, I also wouldn't be surprised either (some American women I'd be more surprised with than others).

 

[daphna]

If healthy and in the form she was in 2014, Carolina will be the dark horse of the olympics. she did really well this year, and if she has the lutz back and hits, only Med is out of reach fr her.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Then in that case, it's not so hard to see the U.S. sneaking in for a medal then if they other than Evgenia and Satoko are "equally unreliable" considering you were saying how it was "hard" to see an American woman medaling. Even solid Satoko seems to not place as well as others some times even when she skates solidly and others make a mistake here and there looking back at her record. I myself am not betting on an American woman medaling with Med and the juniors turning into seniors (Honda and Zagitova) and Kaetlyn and Daleman just being strong skaters with speed and huge, fully rotated jumps, but if an American woman did, I also wouldn't be surprised either (some American women I'd be more surprised with than others).

Which US women wouldn't surprise you to win an individual medal in the field? A skater who has never completed a 7 triple LP, or a skater who has problems rotating jumps, or a skater who has often showed fragile competitive nerves would all be significant upsets if they medal.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Which US women wouldn't surprise you to win an individual medal in the field? A skater who has never completed a 7 triple LP, or a skater who has problems rotating jumps, or a skater who has often showed fragile competitive nerves would all be significant upsets if they medal.

I mean the reigning World silver medalist didn't hit a single 7 triple LP in international competition last season (who also had edge and rotation and nerve issues throughout the season). Now she's seen as one of the major contenders for a medal and some even think can beat Med. It goes to show you that anything can happen. I've seen a lot of surprises at the Olympics, and an American skater who has shown she can place in the top 5 at Worlds would not be a surprise medalist by any stretch of the imagination to me, especially if they hit their routines to do so. Like I said, logically-speaking, if you think other than the two contenders you specifically named, everyone is "equally unreliable", then why would it be "harder" for you to imagine an American lady medaling than an non-American?

 

[Moxiejan]

Other than Evgenia and maybe Satoko, the international competition is perhaps equally unreliable, but I don't think the US women have any solid edge over the two Canadians, the other Russians, or the Japanese.

I didn't say that the U.S. women "have any solid edge" over the "equally unreliable" international competition. I said that over the past six years, they have reliably been in the mix for a medal by placing in the Top 5 or higher.

It seems you are judging the U.S. women by standards of perfection (7-triple program; no URs or downgrades; tech calling that matches what you think you saw) that you're not applying to anyone else.

 

[Violet Bliss]

We don't need this thread. What we need is Ladies OSM Contenders 2018 thread.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Karen Chen did a clean 7 Triple program at 2016 NHK. The caller just didn't give her credit for the 3-3 because she was a newbie. She seems to be getting very consistent, looking at her recent competition with a clean SP and just one small mistake in the LP. She has the whole package too, except for maybe her choice of programs this season. I wish she would just copy Yu-Na's SP from 2007 if she wants to do Roxanne (it works perfectly for the current scoring system, two of the jump elements are in the bonus section already). They need to make that Carmen LP fresher too.

I think Mirai can be really big this season too. She has so much experience and it feels like she is ready to pull it all together again, like she did in 2010. Her recent 3Axel success is very promising.

And then who knows with Ashley. She does have the potential to do a clean SP + LP (or at least clean in terms of the pre-rotations on her 3-3's not being examined closely) and will get competitive PCS if she does. Like Mirai, she has been to the Olympics and has so much experience.

But yeah they won't be winning Gold if that's the question, since the GOE and PCS of Medvedeva are ridiculously wrong and will continue to be so unless she suddenly falters this season out of nowhere.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I didn't say that the U.S. women "have any solid edge" over the "equally unreliable" international competition. I said that over the past six years, they have reliably been in the mix for a medal by placing in the Top 5 or higher.

It seems you are judging the U.S. women by standards of perfection (7-triple program; no URs or downgrades; tech calling that matches what you think you saw) that you're not applying to anyone else.

To say it's "hard to see" something happening doesn't mean it's impossible. I didn't imagine Adelina and Carolina skating as well as they did in Sochi. On some level, you have to consider past performances to assess the likelihood of some outcome. Most women have consistency issues, but a handful have gotten it done at big events: Kaetlyn, Gabby, Satoko, Anna, and Ashley. At this time last year, I'd consider Ashley a medal threat, but since then she had pretty much an entire season of disappointing technical performances. Karen has not won a GP, 4CC, or World medal, or even a silver at a senior B, so I would say it would be surprising for her to medal at the Olympics, where the field is a bit deeper than the US Classic. She skated well at Nationals and Worlds, but those are two of 13 competitive results over two years; she has not typically performed that well and, in fact, had a 12th place 4CC result in between her two strongest performances. Gracie is a wildcard, but we haven't seen her skate well in a long time.

 

[Moxiejan]

I mean the reigning World silver medalist didn't hit a single 7 triple LP in international competition last season (who also had edge and rotation and nerve issues throughout the season). Now she's seen as one of the major contenders for a medal and some even think can beat Med. It goes to show you that anything can happen. I've seen a lot of surprises at the Olympics, and an American skater who has shown she can place in the top 5 at Worlds would not be a surprise medalist by any stretch of the imagination to me, especially if they hit their routines to do so. Like I said, logically-speaking, if you think other than the two contenders you specifically named, everyone is "equally unreliable", then why would it be "harder" for you to imagine an American lady medaling than an non-American?

Stated much better than I did. Thank you!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Karen Chen did a clean 7 Triple program at 2016 NHK. The caller just didn't give her credit for the 3-3 because she was a newbie. She seems to be getting very consistent, looking at her recent competition with a clean SP and just one small mistake in the LP. She has the whole package too, except for maybe her choice of programs this season. I wish she would just copy Yu-Na's SP from 2007 if she wants to do Roxanne (it works perfectly for the current scoring system, two of the jump elements are in the bonus section already). They need to make that Carmen LP fresher too.

I think Mirai can be really big this season too. She has so much experience and it feels like she is ready to pull it all together again, like she did in 2010. Her recent 3Axel success is very promising.

And then who knows with Ashley. She does have the potential to do a clean SP + LP (or at least clean in terms of the pre-rotations on her 3-3's not being examined closely) and will get competitive PCS if she does. Like Mirai, she has been to the Olympics and has so much experience.

But yeah they won't be winning Gold if that's the question, since the GOE and PCS of Medvedeva are ridiculously wrong and will continue to be so unless she suddenly falters this season out of nowhere.

I enjoy Karen's skating and agree that when she's at her best and with better rotation on her landings she will have the total package. But I don't think she's quite there jumps-wise yet. She had significant tech flaws at 2016 NHK. She "landed" 7 triples, but had an "e" call on the flip, and had two UR calls. She only got +GOE on 2 out of 7 jumping passes. Her only notable jumping pass was the 2A+1/2L+3S. Even her spins weren't as good as she could execute them, particularly her FCCoSp. Worlds was a breakthrough for her -- the judges were lenient IMO, maybe due to her being US Champion, who knows. But I was glad she pulled it off, given the haters and the people expecting her to fail and eager to rake her over the coals for it. She's been a fave of mine for a while, but I'm not going to deny her technical flaws.

In the context of the thread, obviously Chen won't contend for Gold (that's Med's to lose), but she could be lucky enough to snag a bronze if the caller isn't too astringent. After all, she was 4th at Worlds, and Gabby/Osmond aren't the cleanest themselves. Chen's looking strong early in the season, but her TES score was crazy high at that recent competition given the obvious error in the LP and I'm pretty sure she had a UR on the first pass too, if I recall correctly. But it's pre-season so it's really hard to say if it will carry over. At least she's looking hungry though, and I like her programs and feistiness she's bringing.

Mirai can be big this season too, and usually I'm a fan of her skating... but I'm doubtful that her 3A is going to get ratified. The rest of her skating is much improved though, and she's learning to use her frame like Liza did and jump more powerfully.

Ashley is a sentimental fave, and I think she could definitely threaten for a medal, but like Karen, will have to rely on a lenient tech caller to squeak past the others.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I enjoy Karen's skating and agree that when she's at her best and with better rotation on her landings she will have the total package. But I don't think she's quite there jumps-wise yet. She had significant tech flaws at 2016 NHK. She "landed" 7 triples, but had an "e" call on the flip, and had two UR calls. She only got +GOE on 2 out of 7 jumping passes.

CSG, as we've been over 100 times, pointing at the protocols in these situations means very little. She was held down at that competition because of being a relative "nobody" and the UR calls were wrong. She got full credit at Worlds, so it seems the skating world now realizes her jumps are legit. Her toeloops are sometimes very close on the rotation, but they are good enough, and her jump quality in general is excellent, with way more height/distance and less pre-rotation on the jumps than the current standard. She did deserve that edge call at 2016 NHK, but she has fixed her Flip since then and doesn't have an edge problem anymore (and has even become so consistent with the jump that it's in her SP).

As for Mirai's 3Axel, I have no idea why it wouldn't be ratified if she continues to execute like she did at her recent showing. That jump was clean. Maybe competitive pressure will make it inconsistent (or make her programs in general inconsistent because of how draining it is to do such a difficult layout), but at the very least her scoring potential looks excellent. She's going for it big time this season.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

CSG, as we've been over 100 times, pointing at the protocols in these situations means very little. She was held down at that competition because of being a relative "nobody" and the UR calls were wrong. She got full credit at Worlds, so it seems the skating world now realizes her jumps are legit. Her toeloops are sometimes very close on the rotation, but they are good enough, and her jump quality in general is excellent, with way more height/distance and less pre-rotation on the jumps than the current standard. She did deserve that edge call at 2016 NHK, but she has fixed her Flip since then and doesn't have an edge problem anymore (and has even become so consistent with the jump that it's in her SP).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGI1PjsTPe4#t=6m10s Uhhhh, so you think that 3T wasn't underrotated? You sure about that?

Though I'm sure she's working on it, I also disagree that she's fixed her flip edge completely.
4CC 2017: (she's lucky to have gotten only a !... that's like a textbook lutz takeoff) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edgov2V8wuM
WC2017: (this one is a bit trickier with the angle) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwQpLAznJOE

Also, just because you put a jump in the SP doesn't mean you've cleaned up the edge and have become "so consistent with the jump", see: Gold -- http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1516/wc2016/wc2016_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf It was hard to tell from a distance at the Glacier Falls competition though, so perhaps Chen has improved her flip edge over the summer. I agree that Karen's general jump quality is excellent (particularly her double axel)... and she jumps "big" for her stature, but I don't think her technique is perfected enough to avoid double takes from the tech specialist, or to suggest that her jumps are legit (or at least consistently unquestionable). Though I suppose now that Murakami has retired, you just might have a new "landings are good enough for me, so why does the tech spec give URs?!?!" skater.

As for Mirai's 3Axel, I have no idea why it wouldn't be ratified if she continues to execute like she did at her recent showing. That jump was clean. Maybe competitive pressure will make it inconsistent (or make her programs in general inconsistent because of how draining it is to do such a difficult layout), but at the very least her scoring potential looks excellent. She's going for it big time this season.

The most recent showing I've seen is the final round at Skate Detroit (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXp01G6PoPE). But is there a more recent competition she's done it at with a better attempt than that? Do you have a clip of the "that jump was clean" that you're referring to?

And FTR, I'm not trying to debase Mirai's 3A attempts. Many of the practice attempts look pretty clean, and kudos to her for going for it. She's certainly gotten it to a point where it's worth trying. And I'm a fan of her pulling out all the stops for the Olympic season and want to see her make the Olympic team. She's doing some of her best skating in years and heck, not many others are going for the 3A, so somebody's gotta bust it out at the Olympics!

 

[Blades of Passion]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGI1PjsTPe4#t=6m10s Uhhhh, so you think that 3T wasn't underrotated? You sure about that?

Yes I am quite sure. Her blade swings around really far on the landing, but she is within a 1/4 turn if you look at the actual takeoff and landing. You can see she leaves the ice in line with that camera angle on the toeloop, so her landing would need more than 90 degrees short of the camera angle to be under-rotated, and it's pretty easy to see it is sideways at worst.

Do you have a clip of Mirai's 3Axel

http://www.hudl.com/technique/video/view/iOGTdsT8?e=10308294

 

[visaliakid]

That was a clean triple axel from Mirai done Tuesday at Champs Camp. Smooth as butter. If she can keep landing like that incompetition... there
be trouble brewing for the top ladies. Go for it all Mirai!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yes I am quite sure. Her blade swings around really far on the landing, but she is within a 1/4 turn if you look at the actual takeoff and landing. You can see she leaves the ice in line with that camera angle on the toeloop, so her landing would need more than 90 degrees short of the camera angle to be under-rotated, and it's pretty easy to see it is sideways at worst.

http://www.hudl.com/technique/video/view/iOGTdsT8?e=10308294

Thank you for the link - Mirai's axel attempt at Champs Camp was absolutely stellar and yes, if she does do it in competition like that, then yes, it should definitely be ratified. Competition will be different, but that's probably the best attempt I've seen her do in a long time if not ever.

Chen however, is definitely UR. She isn't leaving the ice in line with that camera angle when doing the 3T, otherwise her right blade would be traveling directly away from the camera in the 12 o'clock direction instead of to the left at around 10/11 o'clock. The toe would continue to have the same trajectory as her lutz (which IS in line with that camera angle). You can even see that the camera pans to the left as she executes the 3T -- because it's moving in a different direction. For a sufficiently rotated 3T, her toe would have had to be at least point directly towards the camera, and then a quarter turn would have her continuing to glide to the left side of the screen (as she does after hooking the landing). There's also the characteristic the snow + hook on the landing that we see in many a UR (I think Johnny Weir mentioned it at some point?).

I mean, if you want to think a jump like that is sufficiently rotated, hey, that's on you. Although, you might want to brace yourself for the prospect of technical specialists (whose opinions matter way more to Karen, mind you) disagreeing with you more often than you'd like. Hopefully you've still got some ink left in the pen after Sochi.

 

[Blades of Passion]

She isn't leaving the ice in line with that camera angle when doing the 3T, otherwise her right blade would be traveling directly away from the camera in the 12 o'clock direction instead of to the left at around 10/11 o'clock. The toe would continue to have the same trajectory as her lutz (which IS in line with that camera angle).

You're definitely not seeing it correctly. Her lutz takeoff is not in line with the camera angle, it's far to the right of it. She may start facing the camera as she glides back into the jump, but the blade on the lutz curves far over when you are doing it textbook (and Karen does). Although the lutz doesn't really matter when talking about the toeloop, as the toeloop rotation is what is in question here.

I've taken a screenshot of where her toeloop takeoff starts - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop start

As you can see, her blade is indeed facing the camera. Karen does not cheat with excessive pre-rotation on any of her jumps, so this toeloop leaves the ice within the allotted 1/2 turn from the start of the takeoff. Look and see for yourself - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop leaving the ice

So, she needs to land within 90 degrees past that point, aka at least sideways of our view. Here is here landing - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop landing - She is sideways there and hopefully you are able to see that, so we don't have to send you to an eye doctor. There are other camera angles too, where you can clearly see the takeoff and landing points. She's within the 1/4 turn.

 

[Ziotic]

You're definitely not seeing it correctly. Her lutz takeoff is not in line with the camera angle, it's far to the right of it. She may start facing the camera as she glides back into the jump, but the blade on the lutz curves far over when you are doing it textbook (and Karen does). Although the lutz doesn't really matter when talking about the toeloop, as the toeloop rotation is what is in question here.

I've taken a screenshot of where her toeloop takeoff starts - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop start

As you can see, her blade is indeed facing the camera. Karen does not cheat with excessive pre-rotation on any of her jumps, so this toeloop leaves the ice within the allotted 1/2 turn from the start of the takeoff. Look and see for yourself - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop leaving the ice

So, she needs to land within 90 degrees past that point, aka at least sideways of our view. Here is here landing - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop landing - She is sideways there and hopefully you are able to see that, so we don't have to send you to an eye doctor. There are other camera angles too, where you can clearly see the takeoff and landing points. She's within the 1/4 turn.

That toe is so clearly under it's mind blowing that anyone, ever, would argue differently.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

That was a clean triple axel from Mirai done Tuesday at Champs Camp. Smooth as butter. If she can keep landing like that incompetition... there be trouble brewing for the top ladies. Go for it all Mirai!

Just the 3A won't be enough, though. Landing a beautiful 3A and then under rotating three other triples will land her in the same spot she's been in.