2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[ice coverage]

Good question. And good whole post, IMO. I don't remember either, but I don't recall any of the US men ... Jeremy, Jason, Richard, Max ... getting nearly as much advertising "exposure" as Gracie did. Looks like that's reversed this year, as Olympic ads already feature Nathan.

Thanks.

In hindsight, I should have included Polina (not to mention others from pairs/dance) in my question about NBC's TV fluff during Sochi.
(I asked about Jason b/c he had made such a splash at Nats -- whereas I think Polina's silver was a secondary storyline re ladies at Nats, given all the Ashley/Mirai discussion and Gracie hype.)

I agree that NBC did not feature U.S. men in TV promotion leading up to Sochi .. at least not in a memorable (for me) way.
This year, I already have seen NBC TV promos devoted to Ashley as well as to Nathan.

(Not the same as TV by any stretch, but Max and Jeremy were in NBC Olympics online promotional stuff leading up to Sochi -- beginning around October, IIRC. As were Agnes, Christina, D/C. Ashley, Gracie, D/W too, of course. Ross and Lysacek to a limited extent, IIRC.)

---

Things are different now.

Denney/Coughlin were considered propped up to have scored that closely to 2nd place anyway and they had just come back from injury (and weren't doing anything special on the pairs scene before getting injured...), so there wasn't much of a need to veer away from Nationals results. ...

I don't see what the point would be for USFS judges to prop D/C up to come super-close to second at Nats.

Anyway, not much to do (IMO) with the discussion as to whether NBC promotion influences selection of the Olympic team.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

For Sochi: This one contains D/W and Wagner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8V49MuDXBQ
This one based solely in figure skating: D/W, Gold, Wagner, Aaron (and quickly clips of Chan and YuNa lol) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKi-sKHcBoY
And here: Miner, ShibSibs, Wagner, Gold, Denney/Coughlin, Davis/White, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek, (and YuNA lol) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg1rPdmNuPc

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think a GP medal for either of them over someone with only Senior Bs and not medal would go.

A GP medal isn't a huge achievement that would get you on a World/Olympic team. Just ask Courtney Hicks. Let's say Mirai is 4th and someone like Bradie or Courtney is third. What would be the point of bumping the medalist? Mirai isn't an up-and-comer, likely wouldn't be used for the team event, and isn't remotely a medal threat in singles. If Mirai comes out, lands 3As, and wins her GP events then it's a different story, but that hasn't happened yet. Her results would have to look far different than they ever had to get on the Olympic team without a Nationals medal.

 

[ice coverage]

For Sochi: ...
This one based solely in figure skating: D/W, Gold, Wagner, Aaron (and quickly clips of Chan and YuNa lol) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKi-sKHcBoY
And here: Miner, ShibSibs, Wagner, Gold, Denney/Coughlin, Davis/White, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek, (and YuNA lol) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg1rPdmNuPc

Thx for the links.

Shhhh ... please don't tell my friend karne that I did not remember :hopelessness: the one that included footage of our beloved Max :luv17:. My apologies to SnuggleBat.

I do think that Nathan is in a different category this season than the pre-Sochi U.S. men. Both Ashley and he already have been the subject of single-athlete promos televised on NBC.

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ETA:

I keep forgetting to mention that I was pleased yesterday that the Executive Producer of PBS NewsHour tweeted her support for Gracie (along with the link to Brennan's story).

Always happy to see instances of influentials from mainstream media paying/giving attention to figure skating (even though the news at hand happens to be about Gracie's battle against struggles).
(Helps [ETA: in terms of mainstream awareness, I mean] in this case that Brennan is the one who broke the story.)​

@sarajust

Rooting for @GraceEGold https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...d-shows-courage-decision-step-away/625178001/ … @cbrennansports
10:51 AM - 1 Sep 2017
https://twitter.com/sarajust/status/903676786113990656​

 

[Blades of Passion]

A GP medal isn't a huge achievement that would get you on a World/Olympic team. Just ask Courtney Hicks.

It's not about the medal, it's about the talent and trustworthiness of the skater. Courtney won medals in weak competitions, not with great performances (and she didn't deserve that 2015 NHK medal to begin with). She hasn't ever been a trustworthy competitor and there were glaring weaknesses in her skating, so even theoretically clean performances from her don't have the same scoring potential. There's a limit to how badly you can bomb Nationals as well, like she keeps doing.

Let's say Mirai is 4th and someone like Bradie or Courtney is third. What would be the point of bumping the medalist? Mirai isn't an up-and-comer, likely wouldn't be used for the team event, and isn't remotely a medal threat in singles.

She's more of a medal threat than Bradie or Courtney and the odds are she would be more likely to deliver at Olympics. I disagree entirely about not being used for the team event as well, if she shows herself particularly great in one of the segments this season. Her 3Axel means she can have the highest scoring potential and that is important. If the U.S. wants a team Gold medal, and they should be trying to get it, then they NEED big results in the Ladies event. That means sending the ladies with the highest scoring potentials.

I would kick Ashley out of the team event as it stands now. She can be great for an overall consistency between the SP and LP, but Karen and Mirai are showing the higher individual potential.

 

[R.D.]

I think it's WAY too early to tell who would be best for the team event at this point. Whoever the team turns out to be, you probably would need to heavily weight current-season results over past years. If Wagner makes the team and somehow manages to get back into her 2016 form, but one of her two teammates is more up/down, then I wouldn't see a strategic reason to keep her out. But again, at this point we just don't know who will show up or who the team will be at this stage...

 

[Blades of Passion]

If Wagner makes the team and somehow manages to get back into her 2016 form, but one of her two teammates is more up/down, then I wouldn't see a strategic reason to keep her out.

The strategic reason is because the U.S. needs big results to win Gold. They are going to win Bronze anyway, unless multiple people bomb big time, so the goal should be putting the best team together for highest potential result. Wagner's "2016 form" was not actually that competitive. Her SP at Worlds was her best ever and it would potentially only place 5th in the team event at Olympics when you look at what the field is going to be. You need a special X factor you push you ahead and Wagner simply doesn't get the huge GOE's on her elements and isn't considered the best in skating skills and doesn't have an element like a Triple Axel to provide base value advantage.

 

[moriel]

Is Mirai rotating and lading her 3A with some consistency? What I've seen on it, it cannot be considered an advantage yet.
It is only an advantage if the skater manages to do it relatively clean (not too UR and no fall), and manages to still skate the rest of the program.

You keep saying it like she landed a bunch of clean 3As in competition.

 

[Blades of Passion]

She's been landing clean ones in program run-throughs and at a July competition she landed one that was <, along with 7 other mostly clean Triples.

 

[Tavi...]

Uh well...She does seem to be wearing a stragically placed sweatshirt, no? And it isn't that I am not sympathetic, I've been there. By 22 I had control over my weight, but at 17, puberty and weight gain destroyed whatever skating career I had.

You appear to be very weight focused. For the record, that's not what I was referring to when I said she looked great.

 

[Tavi...]

Perhaps. disordered is not the correct word, but , to expect that her problem is likely to be solved or significantly helped with a few months of help seems unrealistic.

I would say that without knowing what her problem is, we have no way of knowing what is realistic.

By the way, "disordered" was very much the wrong word. "Disordered thinking" is characteristic of schizophrenics, who often struggle to connect thoughts into coherent, logical sentences.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

I recall a report that skaters at champs camp were told emphatically that winning the national championship did not guarantee them a spot on the Olympic team. Do some think this was just posturing? I tend to think USFS is committed to giving Nationals less weight when choosing the Olympic team.

I think it's good that they make it very clear. Mirai seemed to believe in 2014 that she was on the team by coming in third - while Ashley seemed to think she had jeopardized her chances when in truth she was the most solid of all at that time. This time around even Mirai has mentioned that 'body of work' is most likely the ticket to the Games - so at least she is very much aware of it this time as hopefully everyone else is.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

She's more of a medal threat than Bradie or Courtney and the odds are she would be more likely to deliver at Olympics. I disagree entirely about not being used for the team event as well, if she shows herself particularly great in one of the segments this season. Her 3Axel means she can have the highest scoring potential and that is important.

Are you basing this on how you think Mirai might skate? You're talking about her 3A as if she has landed on in competition, ever. I don't think any of the skaters you mentioned are a medal threat, but the USFSA will go with the higher placing skater when choosing among skaters who aren't medal threats.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

This time around even Mirai has mentioned that 'body of work' is most likely the ticket to the Games - so at least she is very much aware of it this time as hopefully everyone else is.

If Mirai's season looks anything like Ashley's 2013-14 (1 GP gold, 1 GP silver, GPF bronze), she should absolutely be on the team. If not, she should earn the spot at Nationals. The "body of work" was never intended to put one skater with mediocre results on a team ahead of a skater with even more mediocre results.

 

[ice coverage]

I think it's good that they make it very clear. Mirai seemed to believe in 2014 that she was on the team by coming in third - while Ashley seemed to think she had jeopardized her chances when in truth she was the most solid of all at that time. This time around even Mirai has mentioned that 'body of work' is most likely the ticket to the Games - so at least she is very much aware of it this time as hopefully everyone else is.

The skaters at 2013 Champs Camp -- which included Mirai -- also were informed of the selection criteria for Sochi (not limited to 2014 Nats).

I would say that in 2014, Mirai believed that she had a case for an Olympic spot. I do not think that she believed that she had clinched a spot.

 

[Moxiejan]

I would say that without knowing what her problem is, we have no way of knowing what is realistic.
By the way, "disordered" was very much the wrong word. "Disordered thinking" is characteristic of schizophrenics, who often struggle to connect thoughts into coherent, logical sentences.

I was the one who originally used the term "disordered" thinking. Yes, incorrectly; I should have said "illogical" or "unrealistic" thinking. I had been referring to Gracie's statement that she was "taking a break" from skating while still training for her GP events.

 

[hippomoomin]

I am so tired of the Gracie talking in the thread. Sadly, one cannot avoid because she is still a competitive skater.
Ironically, if she retires in a year, would everyone be happy that we don't even mention her name anymore?

I discovered some decent trained young skaters in the past two JGP. Both Ting Cui and Angelina Huang seem to have the goods, but I have never heard them before. I really hope we can spend more time on discussing new blood. I am also so tired of the back and forth talking of Mirai, Courtney...With everything repeated N times

 

[Ice Dance]

Both Ting Cui and Angelina Huang seem to have the goods, but I have never heard them before.

You likely haven't heard of them because they competed in novices last season. This is their first year in juniors.

They finished first & second in novices at Nationals. Ting has been mentioned a couple times on this thread. She won her group in the Advanced Novices event at the Bavarian Open last spring. Alysa Liu won the short in novices at Nationals last season and finished fourth overall. She finished second in Advanced Novices at the Japan Open this summer and is too young for juniors. Pooja Kalya, who finished third in novices at Nationals overall, finished second among the junior ladies at Skate Detroit this summer.

So last year's top novice girls are starting off their junior careers well. Especially when you add in Kaitlyn Nguyen, who competed in juniors domestically last year but was not old enough to do so internationally until this season.

 

[slider11]

To me, it's very clear that the US federation has given a clear indication that the results of the national competition will not be the sole determinant of who goes to the Olympics or Worlds. At least this time, compared to 4 years ago, there is a clear indication that the full body of work will be the deciding factor. It is a bit disconcerting that even the national champion will not have a lock for a spot on the Oly or World team although I think the champion will certainly earn weighted points with the national win so close to the Olympics. At least skaters know ahead of time and can plan to put in their very best in all competitions. It's kind of exciting that certainly the GP and even the B competitions will hold weight in this decision.

 

[leafygreens]

Still, the cynical part of me wonders if Wagner had NOT placed 4th, and was sent as part of the top 3 - and all other results were the same - whether this would have been a sure thing or not.

Doing it once raised enough of an outcry - but doing it twice - well, alarm bells would have gone off.

Regardless of your thoughts on the Wagner decision, you gotta admit that she had a LOT of commercialization and sponsorships riding on her. Looks like that could once again be the case this year.

You're absolutely right. I think D/C suffered because of Ashley's poor skate. USFSA got such blowback from chopping Mirai that they left pairs and mens alone. I think they would have gotten less blowback if the criteria was applied to all, but Mirai was singled out. I was happy with the pairs teams chosen but do believe the result would have been different.

Going only by the selection criteria (which were from the current and preceding season), USFS was justified in selecting Ashley for Sochi.

In fact, one could argue that the controversy over Ashley might have been slightly diminished if USFS had selected D/C (for whom a not unreasonable case could have been made that they met the selection critieria better than Z/B).
Meaning that Ashley would not have been the sole "beneficiary" of the selection criteria.

The problem is not were they justified in sending Ashley, but did they apply the selection criteria equally among all ladies and all disciplines. They didn't. It was selective use of the selection criteria which gave off the (deserved) impression of unfairness.

I would kick Ashley out of the team event as it stands now. She can be great for an overall consistency between the SP and LP, but Karen and Mirai are showing the higher individual potential.

That would be amazing. Mirai has never before positioned herself as a higher scorer than Ashley. But I think Ashley has too many endorsements to be left off the team event. Yes, I believe endorsements matter. But I want Mirai on the team event, personally.