Phil Hersh on the season so far

[Mathman]

Columnist Phil Hersh comments on what he has seen so far and the prospects of U.S. skaters in the Olympic season.

9. And don’t be surprised if the U.S. wins no figure skating medal at this Olympics, a shutout that has not happened since World War II. Dance clearly is the best shot, but you can give two of the medals to Virtue-Moir (CAN) and Papadakis-Cizeron (FRA) right now, and that leaves a lot of good teams fighting for one medal.

http://www.globetrottingbyphilipher...ener-a-look-at-stumbles-struggles-and-success

Don't forget to click on the video link at the end.

 

[Bonnie F]

I completely agree with all of his points, especially the over scoring of Kostner and the current state of the US skaters; although I think the US will medal in the team competition if nowhere else.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Phil absolutely ripped the judges at Finlandia for Kostners "inflated" score. Major Lolzies!

Good article though :yes:

 

[Violet Bliss]

Don't forget to click on the video link at the end.

The heart of this post and the reason you opened this thread.

Yes, I'm thoroughly impressed. :2thumbs: MK

 

[Bluediamonds09]

It may sound like a very harsh and pessimistic article to many people, yet , I found myself constantly agreeing with what he wrote.

 

[chillgil]

we have a pretty deep field in US ice dance so not sure why Phillip here is suddenly writing them off?? well....a stray observer may think i have lice with all the head scratching i did while reading this article

 

[4everchan]

1) if the USA don't get a team medal, i'd be very very surprised. So there.. you have your medal
2) USA may not look good in pairs and perhaps ladies... but dance and men can bring a medal.... especially dance...
3) Kostner... totally agree.... it's funny how people say that skaters like Patrick Chan or Jason Brown don't have enough quads to win... but then Kostner with no jumps still gets a clear PCS advantage over everyone but Medvedeva..... I would suggest to lower her PCS or bring Patrick's up to 100% ... seriously.... this is ridiculous.... but smart move I guess from her to start in Lombardia.
4) no mention of Osmond... Okay... maybe it was in an other article...
5) severe comments about Gabby who unlike most others is at her first event of the year... and is coming back from abdominal surgery.... I have more hopes than he does about her... her programs are already to a good level and jumps is her strength and they will be back... she still has a few months.

Meh.... the best part was his honesty about Kostner.

 

[draqq]

Some counterpoints:

- I didn't think Chen was "unremarkable". With the quad loop, he's the only skater in the men's field to have landed all non-axel quad jumps. He's also been improving his artistry in both the short and long, as well as the consistency on his 3A.

- I'm still rooting for Polina. I think she knows that her journey will be a difficult one and that the Olympics is a longshot. I just think it's great she's going out and trying. Not everything has to be about the Olympics; Polina is only 19 for heaven's sake and she can think about staying for another quadrennial if she wants.

- I'll get flack for this, but Hersh's comments on Kostner are a tad overblown. He says that she can't even do simple stuff well, but looking at the protocol, she gets positive GOEs on every element apart from the first jump. I do think Kostner's PCS should have been docked maybe about 3 points or so, but her mistakes generally didn't disrupt the flow of the program at all so her ability to interpret the music isn't off and her skating skills with the blade is not all that harmed. There's not much to deduct apart from the performance mark. The only reason she landed in second is because the field wasn't all that great, but a 124 would have likely landed her anywhere from 6th-10th at Worlds.

- I would be very surprised if the US didn't win a figure skating medal at the Olympics BECAUSE of the ice dance. The bronze is really between Hubbell/Donohue and the Shibs; it's theirs to lose for me.

 

[Sam L]

That's why they call her GOATchelle Kwan.

 

[draqq]

That's why they call her GOATchelle Kwan.

Michelle Kwan comeback confirmed!

 

[lost3iron]

Well isn't he a bit pessimistic? Nathan Chen is great and he has the potential to score really big. Given how unpredictable men skating can be he could definitely get a medal, even gold. And so do 2 at least US dance teams. I agree with him though about Kostner's scores...

 

[gmyers]

He has pre team event thinking. US guaranteed medal!

And don’t forget no Russian ice dance team team is likely to be in Olympic fd final flight either! That’s just as big as no American woman in final flight would be. That’s even more extraordinary when writers like Phil Hersh would say ice dance isn’t real because it was fixed for Russians. There is also the extreme monopoly of North American coaches.

 

[Ender]

If US team doesn’t win a team medal then it’s Hersh’s fault for jinxing them. I think they have a legit shot at the team gold if their skaters manage to skate clean.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I could not agree more about Kostner's scores, especially when you look at the statistics that he provided. It's all true...

 

[Seren]

I love Kostner's skating- she is such a beautiful performer. That said, I agree with Hersh. Her inflated scores definitely raise an eyebrow.

 

[Tolstoj]

As an italian, i agree that Kostner's overscoring must go, but honestly it's funny that people are realizing this now, because it was a thing for ages.

At Worlds 2013 she took the bronze with a fall in the short program and a popped jump and one fall in the free skate when others skated clean or cleanish programs.

At Worlds 2014 it was even worse, since Kostner's FS was a complete disaster but still enough to beat two clean programs from Pogorilaya.

I can go on...

But don't conveniently forget that Patrick Chan received the same treatment for years.

Can we also talk about Kim Yuna? Yes because she received some huge scores even when she was intentionally watering down her technical contents. At Worlds 2013 she received 148 points in the free with a 6 triples program. (just a reminder to those who criticizes Evgenia's scores with programs much more difficult)

 

[yyyskate]

As an italian, i agree that Kostner's overscoring must go, but honestly it's funny that people are realizing this now, because it was a thing for ages.

At Worlds 2013 she took the bronze with a fall in the short program and a popped jump and one fall in the free skate when others skated clean or cleanish programs.

At Worlds 2014 it was even worse, since Kostner's FS was a complete disaster but still enough to beat two clean programs from Pogorilaya.

I can go on...

But don't conveniently forget that Patrick Chan received the same treatment for years.

Can we also talk about Kim Yuna? Yes because she received some huge scores even when she was intentionally watering down her technical contents. At Worlds 2013 she received 148 points in the free with a 6 triples program. (just a reminder to those who criticizes Evgenia's scores with programs much more difficult)

"At Worlds 2013 she received 148 points in the free with a 6 triples program." You better WATCH what a "watered-down" and "just 6-triples program" THAT program is ?!! And better listen to ALL the commentators' remark about THAT program including Italian's and decide whether that 148 points is deserved or not.

Yes reputation mark perhaps is going on forever to some extend.
BUT the POINT here is that, NONE has reached the EXTREME and RIDICULOUS extend in the case of Kostener!
Please do not conveniently swap the concept here by being passive aggressive.

 

[Tolstoj]

"At Worlds 2013 she received 148 points in the free with a 6 triples program." You better WATCH what a "watered-down" and "just 6-triples program" THAT program is ?!! And better listen to ALL the commentators' remark about THAT program including Italian's and decide whether that 148 points is deserved or not.

Yes reputation mark perhaps is going on forever to some extend.
BUT the POINT here is that, NONE has reached the EXTREME and RIDICULOUS extend in the case of Kostener!
Please do not conveniently swap the concept here by being passive aggressive.

I remember that program and NO, it wasn't a 148 points worthy program, sorry. The commentators were totally with Kim because she was the champion, she won everything and she is not russian (let's be realistic even on that...), so of course they were with her.

Chan won some medals with a similar tech content gap as Kostner in these two competitions (and BTW she didn't won Finlandia or Lombardia trophy!!!)

Yuna Kim's FS from worlds 2011: 4 triples -> bv. 51.70 -> 61.72 TES

Carolina Kostner's FS from Finlandia Trophy 2017 -> 4 triples -> bv. 46.64 -> 53.95 TES.

So yes the overscoring hasn't changed much from the past.

 

[Violet Bliss]

So Kostner is the hot topic still?

She's scored according to the COP system. Her BV and GOE are based on her execution of the elements and her TES are rather low due to the lower technical difficulty. Her PCS are based on her performance of the program. The choreography of her programs is beautiful and innovative, her musical interpretation is superb, her artistic expressions are way beyond those of the top Ladies today, and her skating skills are well demonstrated with all the intricate movements and quick turns on the blades, not to mention her speed and ice coverage the little jumping beans can't compare to. She had a fall in each program but there was minimal interruption of the program and her performance. She deserved the high PCS.

There are complaints about Men's PCS raised with their quads and TES and there are complaints that some skaters' PCS are not reduced enough on account of their low TES or with falls in the programs. I believe PCS should be independently scored, with a little relevant effect from the TES such as program and performance interruption due to a fall, or some consideration of the ease or difficulty of performance due to degree of technical difficulty. However, technical difficulty of skating and performance should not be ignored in the equation.

For Mens, there is such a general and quad related inflation of PCS that Patrick Chan's PCS are so capped and impossible to reflect the real difference between the level of his skating and performance to those of other top scorers and medal winners. In Ladies, there has not been a huge surge of TES and I think it is appropriate someone of Carolina's skating skills and artistry is properly rewarded. There may be disagreement on the scores awarded but this outrage over "inflation" I can't understand. Is it mainly because of the favored skaters not winning or being scored below Kostner's total scores?

 

[yyyskate]

I remember that program and NO, it wasn't a 148 points worthy program, sorry. The commentators were totally with Kim because she was the champion, she won everything and she is not russian (let's be realistic even on that...), so of course they were with her.

Chan won some medals with a similar tech content gap as Kostner in these two competitions (and BTW she didn't won Finlandia or Lombardia trophy!!!)

Yuna Kim's FS from worlds 2011: 4 triples -> bv. 51.70 -> 61.72 TES

Carolina Kostner's FS from Finlandia Trophy 2017 -> 4 triples -> bv. 46.64 -> 53.95 TES.

So yes the overscoring hasn't changed from the past.

You can keep your OWN opinion regarding Yuna's 2013 worlds FS.

And you can also do a statistic of all TOP skaters (including male and female), adding their TES, and PCS up of their career so far and to see WHO has the most average GAP.

Also in your argue, please do not conveniently ignore GOE as you please.

In the case of 2011 worlds Yuna's FS TES 61.72 PCS 66.87 gap: 5.15

In the case of Kostener's FS from Finlandia Trophy 2017 TES PCS 53.95 PCS 72.36 gap: 18.41

If you really think that reputation PCS applies the same extend to Kostner as to other skaters
Just a reminder to you, Yuna's reputation status at 2011 worlds is fresh reigning OGM.

BTW not regarding the discussion above, just wanna say Yuna's 2011 FS is a thing of beauty (one of her most loved program among Oriental figure skating fans), highly recommend to watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wEQL7ZcrKM

EDIT:
this may hurt you, but the bold part of your comments do share some light as why Kostner is not criticized in terms of reputation/inflated marks commensurate to her record of inflation on this board or else where.
is that in most situations, that her TES is so low, even with ridiculously inflated PCS, she is still not a threat and can not win, like in the events highlighted in bold in your comment.