2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[beki]

I could see the argument that lenient calling of Ashley and Karen in Helsinki disadvantaged Mai and Wakaba's placements, although they skated unevenly and that is their responsibility. They were still untried, and now they're improving rapidly. Rules are rules, even so, it's a crying shame this season that we can hardly muster 3 strong contenders, when Japan clearly can. I am a fan of skating in general, not only American skating, and I feel deprived. It's not that I don't like our girls, I do, and I hope they will improve over the season. But I don't see them having the same potential as the Japanese.

 

[R.D.]

The Americans right now don't have a clear it girl which is why i am saying Ashley because she has maturity and pcs and fairly consistent jumps that she is the best bet to make the team for the olympics though she may not win nationals.

Wagner has yet to debut this GP season. I don’t think we can make that call yet at this point.

Put differently: if she underperforms in/bombs her first event, does that bet go out the window?

 

[andromache]

Wagner has yet to debut this GP season. I don’t think we can make that call yet at this point.

Put differently: if she underperforms in/bombs her first event, does that bet go out the window?

I mean, Ashley is a better bet than any other American lady, based only on what we know now. Not to say that she's a good bet...it's only that all the American ladies are pretty BAD bets, and Ashley is the least bad, given her history.

If Karen skates lights out at both of her GP events and makes the final, obviously that will completely change everything. Ashley bombing her first event and everyone else repeating last year's GP results, for example? I don't think it changes how I would personally bet, if I was forced to bet on any single American lady.

 

[beki]

In that case, Karen would become US #1, but that wouldn't translate to Ashley being off the team. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where she doesn't go.

 

[MarinHondas]

The call on the SP 3A was correct. They showed a super slomo of that 3A on the Olympic Channel---it clearly showed that Mirai completed the final half rotation on the ice, not in the air.

Mirai's overarching problem (other than URs) is that she doesn't have the presentation skills to bail her out when her jumps fail. She has gorgeous costumes but zero connection to her music. There are times when it's hard to believe she has 11 years of experience skating before judges and audiences.

As far as saying Mirai has the most difficult jump layout in the world right now for a female---that is not strictly true. There are two junior skaters who have FS jump layouts with 3a or 4s, and when Wakaba Higuchi adds in the 3a, her FS with two 3z+3t will be considerably more difficult than Mirai's. Mirai does one 3/3, just one 3z and one 3f; she repeats 3lo and 3s.

but Higuchi hasnt.... added 3a.... so to assume that she will does not really work in this discussion. It is just undermining Mirai by making up layouts for skaters. Wakaba even said her 3a is not consistent and she MIGHT add it in next season, not thi season. Mirai has one of the most difficult senior layouts in the world right now. I think third or fourth most difficult in the world and second most difficult in senior(even without 3a, Alina's is harder I think).

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I mean, Ashley is a better bet than any other American lady, based only on what we know now. Not to say that she's a good bet...it's only that all the American ladies are pretty BAD bets, and Ashley is the least bad, given her history.

If Ashley produces 3 good SPs or 3 good LPs in her two GP events and at Nationals, there is probably a case for her to make that she'd be useful for the team event. To be frank, that is the only Olympic event in which our women will factor in to the medals. If a skater isn't useful for the team event, I don't see the point of swapping out one non-medal contender for another, rather than going with the Nationals result.

 

[frida80]

I think both Ashley and Karen are some of our best skaters, but they may have a tough time next week. It’s likely neither will medal, and that’s ok. I hope we all can be ok, because it’s really just a journey to nationals at this point. We should give all of our ladies time to tweak their programs and grow.

I don’t agree that Ashley had a slump. I do think there was a change last year. I think it was due to a lot of things. Her main rival having a slump, coming back from an injury, her break up, her best friend being injured, etc. I just knew something was off from the very beginning of the season. I thought it was just the change of programs. Then after nationals I watched her Worlds SP and FS and realized the problem. Ashley normally skates with such a fire that she nearly melts the ice. She lost that spark from 2015-2016. I just blamed it on winning a world silver medal and feeling less motivated. I hope now that it’s the olympic season and Adam is healthy again, she’ll regain that fire.

Ashley will have some struggles still. She probably going to get underrotation calls on some of her jumps and her PCS may be a bit lower because she’s in the process of adjusting her choreography to something new. She’s also been working on her her quick twitch. It may take a few tries to get this consistent. She normally does JO to warm up for the season. She didn’t this year, so this is her first competition for the season. It should feel a little off. Plus the field is pretty deep. However, I think she should manage a bronze if she’s clean enough. It depends how good Marin, Rika, and Anna will be.

Karen just decided a week ago to make brand new LP. I will commend her bravery. However, it takes almost two months to let a new program settle. Maybe because it’s her own choreography it will settle faster. She also has problems with <. I hope that she can rebound for SA.

I think Ashley will have a good shot at the GPF if she doesn’t meltdown here. At SA, she’s practically guaranteed a gold or silver if she’s clean. Unless Anna, Gabby, Satako, and Polina are very good, then there will be problems.

The Grand Prix has changed a LOT in the last quad.

 

[princessalica]

I was just watching Gracie's first Grand Prix medal skate from her first senior season. Gosh, I miss that sparkle! We need another lady to rise from the junior ranks and rise to the occasion. She didn't win her first GP, but she did make a splash at her second one. I'm excited to see Amber Glenn's GP debut. I also would love to see another US lady skating in France in place of Gracie ( I realize that the spot is chosen from the sub list and US has no say over it) But would love to see some US ladies make us eat our words and really shine this year ( of course I would love to have Gracie back in Gracie form, because she is an amazing skater, but I also want her to just be happy! Seriously at Rostelcom in 2012, there were mistakes and she still skated with emotion and didn't let go - it was a joy to watch!) But ladies skating has changed so much and scores are so much higher than they used to be! 115 was the best in the free skate and a 63 was the top of the short program. I don't know that we can accurately guage the picture because the scores aren't being viewed the same.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

To me, during the off-season, I could see people's imaginations running where they saw Ashley being left in the dust. However, now that we've had a few competitions, it makes it more difficult to imagine anybody definitely out-skating Ashley. If Ashley is clean enough at Nationals, I don't think her Olympic spot can be denied unless three American women have the competition of their lives and have had at least one GP or other international in this Fall to back up higher scores.

 

[matcha]

But Wakaba, who is doing well now, did not step up. Karen Chen did step up. That's what is exciting about our sport, things can change unexpectedly.

*cough*underscoredinshortprogram*cough*

&re: Ashley: if she's in the top five at Nationals, she's going.

 

[brightphoton]

Rostelom Cup wasn't the best outing for the American ladies, but there were a few merits to Mariah and Mirai's performances.

When landed, Mariah's 3-3s were very good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeVT9laHeu4&t=0m43s

I'm also very glad she kept the silver disco ball dress for her short program. It looks very flattery and pretty on her, and the music of Chicago is a great vehicle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nwf8NTHEb5Y&t=1m24s

Mirai did go for her triple axel, which takes a lot of courage in itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ5TBkrBhtY&t=0m37s

Yes, yes, I know, Mirai has a very very long set up into her triple axel, and has a characteristic arm switching tic. But you know what? Remember Adam Rippon? He used to have a very very long set up into his triple axel too. It took up the entire rink, and that was only for a solo triple axel. Now he can do them in combination and with footwork into the entry.
Adam in 2009:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdP5oHCjAbk&t=1m15s

Adam in 2016:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trn5AHa8NCA&t=2m40s

 

[Globetrotter]

I could see the argument that lenient calling of Ashley and Karen in Helsinki disadvantaged Mai and Wakaba's placements, although they skated unevenly and that is their responsibility. They were still untried, and now they're improving rapidly. Rules are rules, even so, it's a crying shame this season that we can hardly muster 3 strong contenders, when Japan clearly can. I am a fan of skating in general, not only American skating, and I feel deprived. It's not that I don't like our girls, I do, and I hope they will improve over the season. But I don't see them having the same potential as the Japanese.

I more or less get what you mean. Russia has great depth too but personally, I am none too excited by any except Tsurskaya. Among the Japanese, my faves had always been Wakaba and Satoko. All of them have their flaws but at least they have strong basics and bladework. I have always felt that strong foundational SS is what allows the skater to perform more complex routines and different musical genre. Problem with the current US ladies is that they are all mediocre SS wise and Ashley's TES and transitions potential will always be effy due to her weak edges and very mediocre SS. Gracie Gold is the only one with superb SS but such a pity that competitive pressure had done her in for the moment. Karen Chen to me is the best bet if she ups her SS which will allow her to control her big jumps better.

 

[moriel]

I more or less get what you mean. Russia has great depth too but personally, I am none too excited by any except Tsurskaya. Among the Japanese, my faves had always been Wakaba and Satoko. All of them have their flaws but at least they have strong basics and bladework. I have always felt that strong foundational SS is what allows the skater to perform more complex routines and different musical genre. Problem with the current US ladies is that they are all mediocre SS wise and Ashley's TES and transitions potential will always be effy due to her weak edges and very mediocre SS. Gracie Gold is the only one with superb SS but such a pity that competitive pressure had done her in for the moment. Karen Chen to me is the best bet if she ups her SS which will allow her to control her big jumps better.

Ashley's TES potential will always be effy because of her jump issues.
Trust me, if she was able to consistently land most her jumps without URs and backload, this would make WAY more difference than SS.

 

[sross43]

Just saw that Gracie posted on Instagram for the first time in months. Hope that means she's on the up and feeling a little bit better! Good for her

 

[Globetrotter]

Ashley's TES potential will always be effy because of her jump issues.
Trust me, if she was able to consistently land most her jumps without URs and backload, this would make WAY more difference than SS.

I only agree partially. If you watch Ashley's approach into her jumps, she visibly slows down prior to the jump which makes her more prone to UR. With those shallow edges, it is likely she can't quite maintain the speed throughout without muscling through. Without fixing her edge weakness, it is going to be very tough to consistently land those triple jump combos or backload unless she can rotate super fast like Satoko or Zhenya or Zagi.

 

[moriel]

I only agree partially. If you watch Ashley's approach into her jumps, she visibly slows down prior to the jump which makes her more prone to UR. With those shallow edges, it is likely she can't quite maintain the speed throughout without muscling through. Without fixing her edge weakness, it is going to be very tough to consistently land those triple jump combos or backload unless she can rotate super fast like Satoko or Zhenya or Zagi.

Yes, but her issue is not SS, her issue is jumps. Just SS will not help her in anything, really. If she doesnt get the jumps on spot, no matter what she does, she will not be able to compete with top ladies.

 

[Blades of Passion]

The call on the SP 3A was correct. They showed a super slomo of that 3A on the Olympic Channel---it clearly showed that Mirai completed the final half rotation on the ice, not in the air.

It was not correct, I don't think you know what you're looking at. All that matters is the landing point in relation to the takeoff. Her takeoff was in the direction of the long board of the rink. Her turn on the landing wasn't because of being 1/2 turn short, it was simply her blade sharply turning on the ice. This isn't uncommon, it can happen on any landing, regardless of how rotated the jump is in relation to the starting point.

If she was actually 1/2 turn short based upon how her blade rotated and eventually ended up on the landing (you arbitrarily consider this point as where the jump would have been completely backwards, when it is 1/4 turn past the point of already being backwards), then it would mean her jump would have taken off in the direction of the short board at the far end of the rink. That's obviously not the case.

As far as saying Mirai has the most difficult jump layout in the world right now for a female---that is not strictly true. There are two junior skaters who have FS jump layouts with 3a or 4s.

Yes it is true, Juniors are not allowed to do 3A in the SP, therefore Mirai's jump layout IS the most difficult. The 4S you reference is not a real one either, Trusova has never shown the ability to do one that is actually rotated and clean.

 

[moriel]

It was not correct, I don't think you know what you're looking at. All that matters is the landing point in relation to the takeoff. Her takeoff was in the direction of the long board of the rink. Her turn on the landing wasn't because of being 1/2 turn short, it was simply her blade sharply turning on the ice. This isn't uncommon, it can happen on any landing, regardless of how rotated the jump is in relation to the starting point.

If she was actually 1/2 turn short based upon how her blade rotated and eventually ended up on the landing (you arbitrarily consider this point as where the jump would have been completely backwards, when it is 1/4 turn past the point of already being backwards), then it would mean her jump would have taken off in the direction of the short board at the far end of the rink. That's obviously not the case.



Yes it is true, Juniors are not allowed to do 3A in the SP, therefore Mirai's jump layout IS the most difficult. The 4S you reference is not a real one either, Trusova has never shown the ability to do one that is actually rotated and clean.

Did Mirais 3A ever got ratified in an isu competition? Because the ones I seen are judges exactly same way as Trusova's 4S.

 

[puremagic]

Did Mirais 3A ever got ratified in an isu competition? Because the ones I seen are judges exactly same way as Trusova's 4S.

I guess Depression means that even at practice's videos Sasha did 4S<. For example, at Anna Scherbakova's pratice's videos her 4T is fully rotated. The same story about Mirai Nagasu. She did absolutely clean and fully rotated 3A at practices.

That's sad but I too don't see how Sasha can land clean 4S. Her rotation speed is not so fast on salchow.

 

[Gullygirl84]

Did Mirais 3A ever got ratified in an isu competition? Because the ones I seen are judges exactly same way as Trusova's 4S.

Ratified (rotated), but she tapped down with her foot (at us international classic, negative goe).