2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[drivingmissdaisy]

I actually am starting to wonder if Karen is one of those people who thrives on pressure. It seems the more pressure she is under the better she does. Nationals and Worlds are far more pressure, but she does well at them, while a 4CC an event that sadly even fans mock for its lack of importance, she never does great. Also her best GP performance might have been her debut... again when the pressure is really on.

This may be the case, but I don't think there are enough "big event" data points. Karen has 2 good Nationals and 1 bad one. She had a good worlds, but only competed there once. One could also argue that she is really a ~180 skater, which is roughly her score from her two GP events last year and the US Classic. A lot of questions will be answered during the upcoming GP series.

 

[StitchMonkey]

But if the USFSA sticks to its announcement that a skater's entire body of work will be taken into account in naming the team this year it won't help Karen's case if she only does well at nationals.

I think her 4th at worlds, securing 3 spots will be a big plus in her body of work... and frankly it should be as it was for Ashley four years ago. If other ladies had epic GPs that might be an issue...but if Karen is only as "meh" as everyone else... her body of work might still be the best.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Karen's 'On Golden Pond' was one of the best programs last season. I'm impressed by her ability to create something of that caliber and be able to enjoy the level of success that went with it. Deservedly so :agree: I think more skaters should do their own choreography and even though I've always liked her skating I hope she sees success mostly so that she encourages others to follow her footsteps. This is a trend I would love to see catch on.

I'm looking forward to what she's come up with

 

[ssffww]

I think her 4th at worlds, securing 3 spots will be a big plus in her body of work... and frankly it should be as it was for Ashley four years ago. If other ladies had epic GPs that might be an issue...but if Karen is only as "meh" as everyone else... her body of work might still be the best.

Good point. If she does as well as all the other American ladies on the GP, or even close, her body of work will be just fine.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

But if the USFSA sticks to its announcement that a skater's entire body of work will be taken into account in naming the team this year it won't help Karen's case if she only does well at nationals.

At this point, I don't think they can afford to be picky...

 

[KatGrace1925]

I think you have a point. The years that Michelle, who transformed herself into the total package by blood, sweat and sheer force of will, dominated the ladies there was little need to be developing new talent.

Exactly Michelle made herself a star through hard work. Gracie was picked out as a star because she was technically ahead of everyone else because she worked hard for her technique. Nathan Chen's development was more orchestrated by his parents it seems, the move to Raf was a smart one when he was still young and had a lot of raw talent and again he was a very hard worker. The USFS should be sending younger skaters to Raf & Alex for jumps and have them spend time with Marina developing their edge work. The USFS lets young potential talent wane under coaches who will never properly nurture it. They don't oversee anything, they literally pick out skaters who are already developed. If they had hands in anything they should have moved Karen Chen to a coach who could properly fix her jumps rather than letting her continue on with her 3-3 issues. They obviously picked her as their new princess but she continues to struggle because having an Olympic gold medalist as a mentor is not enough to put her at the top. They never supported Ashley, she is as good as she is because she fought for it; she moved herself to the coaches she knew she needed and put in the hard work to fight for her own success. We have good coaches here but the USFS has not developed a good system for fostering talent. They're way too focused on making an ice princess to save the popularity of skating rather than actually putting in the work they need to develop a champion. Just my 2 cents on the matter.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Good point. If she does as well as all the other American ladies on the GP, or even close, her body of work will be just fine.

This "body of work" thing is going to be problematic if the USFSA doesn't provide more clarity. Karen has a 4th place at Worlds and beat Mariah and Mirai at Nationals, Mirai has wins over Karen (USC and 4CC) and Mariah (4CC), and Mariah has a wins over Mirai (RC) and Karen (4CC); all of these are results in events that will be considered to some degree. Prior to bombing 2014 Nationals, Ashley had not lost to an American in any event for a couple of seasons. To me, that is the standard expected. If you have a group of 8-10 skaters who all have multiple losses to others in that group, it's best to look at the Nationals result only.

 

[R.D.]

I think you have a point. The years that Michelle, who transformed herself into the total package by blood, sweat and sheer force of will, dominated the ladies there was little need to be developing new talent.

That’s no excuse. Kwan OBVIOUSLY wasn’t going to skate forever so USFS had to have seen this coming, or at least if not, should have been preparing should the possibility arise. If they just sat back and waited and hoped, then this is on them for not having a plan moving forward.

 

[ssffww]

This "body of work" thing is going to be problematic if the USFSA doesn't provide more clarity. Karen has a 4th place at Worlds and beat Mariah and Mirai at Nationals, Mirai has wins over Karen (USC and 4CC) and Mariah (4CC), and Mariah has a wins over Mirai (RC) and Karen (4CC); all of these are results in events that will be considered to some degree. Prior to bombing 2014 Nationals, Ashley had not lost to an American in any event for a couple of seasons. To me, that is the standard expected. If you have a group of 8-10 skaters who all have multiple losses to others in that group, it's best to look at the Nationals result only.

Good point. Assuming their roughly equal in their "body of work" argument, I suspect nationals will be the deciding factor.

 

[bevybean]

Karen's 'On Golden Pond' was one of the best programs last season. I'm impressed by her ability to create something of that caliber and be able to enjoy the level of success that went with it. Deservedly so :agree: I think more skaters should do their own choreography and even though I've always liked her skating I hope she sees success mostly so that she encourages others to follow her footsteps. This is a trend I would love to see catch on.

I'm looking forward to what she's come up with

On golden pond was really beautiful.

I was thinking that it may be faster for Karen to choreograph her own piece because she may have already had ideas about the piece. Chances are she is already familiar with the music whereas a choreographer wouldn't be.

Good point. If she does as well as all the other American ladies on the GP, or even close, her body of work will be just fine.

 

[bevybean]

That’s no excuse. Kwan OBVIOUSLY wasn’t going to skate forever so USFS had to have seen this coming, or at least if not, should have been preparing should the possibility arise. If they just sat back and waited and hoped, then this is on them for not having a plan moving forward.

Agreed. While I think there is a HUGE benefit to the skater to fight for what they get every step of the way (like Ashley had to), USFSA could accomplish that by looking to develop many skaters with talent and have them fighting to be the best in a deep pool of talent.

 

[andromache]

That’s no excuse. Kwan OBVIOUSLY wasn’t going to skate forever so USFS had to have seen this coming, or at least if not, should have been preparing should the possibility arise. If they just sat back and waited and hoped, then this is on them for not having a plan moving forward.

USFS, it seems to me, has never tried to develop skaters or disciplines. Carlo Fassi was instrumental to developing US ladies for decades, along with Frank Carroll, and John Nicks in pairs. Other superstars emerged through talent or grit or the assistance of exceptional though not extremely prolific coaches (Don Laws comes to mind) - all of these superstars also had ridiculous amounts of support and/or pressure from their parents who enabled their kids to train with the best and put in the time necessary to compete at an elite level - Tara Lipinski is a major example of this, for example.

Meanwhile, US ice dance was a joke until Marina Zoueva came along to single-handedly make it the US's most successful discipline.

USFS doesn't do much until someone incredibly exceptional emerges who already has a decent team/funding/support system behind them. And they might not have the resources to provide the team/funding/support system to a wide enough group of skaters to have any sort of success.

 

[frida80]

Exactly Michelle made herself a star through hard work. Gracie was picked out as a star because she was technically ahead of everyone else because she worked hard for her technique. Nathan Chen's development was more orchestrated by his parents it seems, the move to Raf was a smart one when he was still young and had a lot of raw talent and again he was a very hard worker. The USFS should be sending younger skaters to Raf & Alex for jumps and have them spend time with Marina developing their edge work. The USFS lets young potential talent wane under coaches who will never properly nurture it. They don't oversee anything, they literally pick out skaters who are already developed. If they had hands in anything they should have moved Karen Chen to a coach who could properly fix her jumps rather than letting her continue on with her 3-3 issues. They obviously picked her as their new princess but she continues to struggle because having an Olympic gold medalist as a mentor is not enough to put her at the top. They never supported Ashley, she is as good as she is because she fought for it; she moved herself to the coaches she knew she needed and put in the hard work to fight for her own success. We have good coaches here but the USFS has not developed a good system for fostering talent. They're way too focused on making an ice princess to save the popularity of skating rather than actually putting in the work they need to develop a champion. Just my 2 cents on the matter.

I disagree. I said before you cannot micromanage a winner. They have to make themselves into winners. No one made Michelle into a winner. She became one herself. For all the stories about her makeover and artistry, I think people forget that there were two moments that made Michelle into the elite skater that she became. 1. She didn't go to the Olympics in 1994. Nancy got her deserved bye, but Michelle couldn't compete. She learned there that she needed to be consistent to win. 2. Failing to medal at 1995 Worlds. She skated clean but was left of the podium. She then developed herself artistically after that.

The mark of a true winner is how they handle their loses. They're not satisfied with them. If they lose they hone their skills. But in the end they will force everyone to take them seriously. They will fight for what they want.

With Nathan, after winning Novice twice by age 11, he told his parents that he had learned everyone that he was going to learn in SLC and told them he needed to go to LA to train with Raf. He's always had a very mature mindset. I think competing such a long time on the JGP was a great thing,because he could compete with people in a much higher level than domestically and not even done in by USFS politics. I think one of defining moment was in 2016 when he got third in Nationals. He said he was surprised that he placed "that low." So he decided himself that he was going to be taken seriously. At the time, USFS didn't want quadsters. They wanted artist. Nathan got his quads and proved to everyone that he had the goods to compete with the best.

No it's best if USFS stop anointing new talent skaters and let the talent develop on their own. Gracie is an tragedy that should never be repeated.

Agreed. While I think there is a HUGE benefit to the skater to fight for what they get every step of the way (like Ashley had to), USFSA could accomplish that by looking to develop many skaters with talent and have them fighting to be the best in a deep pool of talent.

Exactly. In my dissertation post I explained why ladies are less competitive than other countries and how we can make them into better competitors. I think we need to focus on deepening the pool rather than panning for gold and polishing it. The girls need to make themselves seen and polish themselves. If they don't. They will never be able to compete with the best.

 

[ice coverage]

But if the USFSA sticks to its announcement that a skater's entire body of work will be taken into account in naming the team this year ....

afaik, USFS has never made an announcement that a skater's "entire" body of work will be taken into account.

If(??) the Olympic selection criteria are more-or-less analogous to the 2017 Worlds selection criteria, then the Olympic selection criteria would go back only as far as 2017 Nats (which would be in Tier 3 of the Olympic criteria).

Which would mean, for example, that the bodies of work under consideration would not include Ashley's silver medal at 2016 Worlds, but would include (in Tier 1 of the Olympic criteria) Karen's fourth place at 2017 Worlds.

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Just catching up on the forums as I've been unable to check in for a bit...So, my 2 cents on a few things:

1. I started my own little spreadsheet to track scores over the season. Counting only Challenger series and the one GP event (anyone with 2 events, I took the higher score), I was surprised to see that Bradie Tennell has the highest score so for out of the US ladies by roughly 8 points. 2nd and 3rd are Mariah Bell and Angela Wang. I'm not saying that those are my picks for Olympic spots, but I think it implies that a lot is up in the air. ...

The ISU Season's Bests list is a handy way to see the highest scores from Challengers and GPs.

11 | 196.70 Bradie TENNELL USA ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 15.09.2017
20 | 188.56 Mariah BELL USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2017 21.10.2017
25 | 183.85 Angela WANG USA ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2017 08.10.2017
26 | 183.54 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 16.09.2017
28 | 182.32 Karen CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 16.09.2017​

I love Angela Wang, but it is worth mentioning that Mirai's ISU SB is only 0.31 lower than Angela's.
And Karen's ISU SB is only 1.53 lower than Angela's.

So ... yes, I agree that a lot is up in the air.

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I believe some of our pairs have taken lessons from Mozer over the summer. Sending some of our promising juniors to Eteri or some Japanese coaches? ...

Anecdotally and FWIW:

Something that has been happening at least to some extent in the past is that on visits to the U.S., some top non-U.S. coaches are working with U.S. skaters. What I recall off the top of my head (and I bet there are other examples):

- Mie Hamada was one of the coaches at the summer 2017 edition of USFS Jump On It! Camp in Colorado Springs.

- Mishin has worked with U.S. skaters (such as Mirai, IIRC) when he brought some of his skaters to the U.S. for summer training.

- Moskvina has worked in the U.S. (Florida, Colorado Springs, etc.) with lots of U.S. pairs.​

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Thinking about it - I'm a little concerned about Karen choreographing her own LP right before Skate Canada. ...

It just gives the impression that she doesn't need the top-tier everything because she's not an OGM contender. ...

If Karen is suddenly program-less, USFS should be getting her together with an amazing choreographer.

I just think it's a bad look. Perception matters.

Disagree.

Last season, Karen got her career-best results with her own choreography. First place at Nats and fourth place at Worlds.
To put it another way: To date, the choreographer who has gotten Karen Chen the best results is Karen Chen.

Don't understand why it would be a bad look for her to go with what has worked best for her in the past.

 

[mrrice]

On golden pond was really beautiful.

I was thinking that it may be faster for Karen to choreograph her own piece because she may have already had ideas about the piece. Chances are she is already familiar with the music whereas a choreographer wouldn't be.

On Golden Pond was beautiful and with so many ladies repeating programs, I was surprised that she didn't keep it. However, if she feels she can top it with a new program, more power to her.

 

[Bonnie F]

The USFS should be sending younger skaters to Raf & Alex for jumps and have them spend time with Marina developing their edge work. The USFS lets young potential talent wane under coaches who will never properly nurture it. They don't oversee anything, they literally pick out skaters who are already developed. If they had hands in anything they should have moved Karen Chen to a coach who could properly fix her jumps rather than letting her continue on with her 3-3 issues.

I disagree that the federation should try to move skaters from one coach to another. Think about it, most of the developing figure skaters are still minors living at home with their families. You would be talking about uprooting a family or potentially breaking up a family. Parents would have to find new homes and new jobs, siblings would have to find new schools. While I know this occurs now it should be a family choice not a federation choice. Even if the federation wanted a skater to work with a different coach for a few weeks, you'd be asking families to pay extra for travel and accommodations as well as ice time when their child has likely yet to make any money from the sport. This would make the sport more elusive for poorer or middle class families than it already is.

 

[frida80]

I disagree that the federation should try to move skaters from one coach to another. Think about it, most of the developing figure skaters are still minors living at home with their families. You would be talking about uprooting a family or potentially breaking up a family. Parents would have to find new homes and new jobs, siblings would have to find new schools. While I know this occurs now it should be a family choice not a federation choice. Even if the federation wanted a skater to work with a different coach for a few weeks, you'd be asking families to pay extra for travel and accommodations as well as ice time when their child has likely yet to make any money from the sport. This would make the sport more elusive for poorer or middle class families than it already is.

It’s true. I think it’s easy to say, just go to a better coach. But when you look at it differently, it exposes a different problem. We don’t have enough coaches! We only have a hand full of high level coaches and clearly they don’t know how to handle large numbers of students the the Russians.

I think there needs to be more of an effort to increase high level coaches by having them assist or mentor for high level coaches, both here and abroad. Furthermore, our learn to skate program and USFS coaches need to be managed better. I learned how to skate from them, and I can tell you the level of quality for these teachers is very low. More time needs to be spent ensuring that these low level coaches that will teach the basics are trained on how to teach technique properly and most importantly have that technique themselves.

 

[sross43]

Does the USFS actually do anything? Like, at all? In Russia, they travel around to smaller rinks and look for talent. When they spot that young talent, they enroll them in special schools with other figure skaters who all train together and pay much of their way. It seems like the USFS just waits for some wunderkid to show a modicum of talent, sets them up with commercial deals, proclaims them the next world medalist, and then seems shocked an unprepared child is unable to handle the misguided expectations of a nation. Say what you want about TSL being catty, but they're spot on when they say the USFS is tired and letting the sport fall to pieces in America.

 

[humbaba]

FYI, the US regional qualifying comps are finished and there were some notable performances among the ladies. Alysa Liu placed first in Juniors in the Central Pacific region (56.61, 112.9, 169.51). In the FS she landed 2A, 3Lz3T, 3F1L3S, 3L, 3Lz, 3F, 2A2T. Alysa got all level 4s on spins, level 3 on step sequence. No falls. All positive GOE. I can’t believe we have to wait two years before she is age eligible for international junior competitions. hwell:

Akari Nakahara won jrs. in the SW Pacifics (55.15, 108.34, 163.49). Pooja Kalyan placed first among juniors in the Southwestern region (53.47, 105.84, 159.31). I don’t know Pooja’s PBs off the top of my head, but I think these scores are a big improvement for her. I don’t recall Pooja ever before breaking 100 points in the FS.

In senior ladies, Hannah Miller, Emily Chan, Vivian Le, Brynne McIsaac, Nina Ouellette and Sierra Venetta were among those qualifying for sectionals. Le won SW Pacific seniors with a total score 148.55.

It hasn’t been too long since the bonus for triples rule was put in place for the lower levels. I took a quick look at protocols for the intermediate girls and the bonus rules seem to be having an impact. By my count, 30 of the 36 qualifiers in the girls intermediate comp included at least one triple in their FSs. Most did more than one triple. I was surprised by how deep the triple attempts went in some regions. In the SW, the top nine finishers attempted at least one triple in the FS. In the SW Pacific it was 7 of the top 8. In New England 6 of the top 7. In the North Atlantic, the top six all had at least one triple in the FS.

Icenetwork has most of the regional videos up now. The rest should follow eventually.

Congratulations to all the girls who qualified for sectionals.

 

[R.D.]

Does the USFS actually do anything? Like, at all? In Russia, they travel around to smaller rinks and look for talent. When they spot that young talent, they enroll them in special schools with other figure skaters who all train together and pay much of their way. It seems like the USFS just waits for some wunderkid to show a modicum of talent, sets them up with commercial deals, proclaims them the next world medalist, and then seems shocked an unprepared child is unable to handle the misguided expectations of a nation. Say what you want about TSL being catty, but they're spot on when they say the USFS is tired and letting the sport fall to pieces in America.

I don't think it's so much LETTING it fall to pieces as it is that they've been able to coast for decades with minimal involvement in the process due to the success of the singles disciplines. But since the change from 6.0 to Code of Points, there has been a notable shift in the balance and all of a sudden, the well is dry. But USFS hasn't had to find water for so long that it's almost like they don't know how to go about it. It's almost like the transition between systems domestically wasn't exactly smooth (I can't speak to it directly though - can anyone "in the system" attest to this?)

The men at least have had one OGM (2010) and seem to have another contender in 2018 so one could argue that those cycles are shorter. But the women - traditionally the US's stronghold - have seemed to have struggled the most to adapt. Apart from Wagner's World silver in 2016, they literally have kept off the World/Oly podium ever since. Was it after 2006 that the ISU began cracking down on UR jumps?