Post GP Olympic spots thoughts
Well after this GP, things are a little bit clearer, though there's still plenty of room for surprises. First of all, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, I am grateful that the U.S. men, despite their ups-and-downs seem to be fighting for these three spots. Two men have made GPF, two others have medaled and one has been right outside it. That is a far better result than the U.S. lady counterparts.
For now going to focus on the Olympic contenders today. After GPF/Golden Spin, I'll do an overall field report and include numbers.
1. Nathan Chen.
Season's best scores: 293.79 (1); 104.12 (1) 195.92 (1)
Average scores: 281.57 (1) 98.82 (1) 183.64 (1)
TES (best): 59.56 (1) 104.85 (1)
TES (average) 54.84 (1) 95.59 (2)
PCS (best): 44.40 (2); 88.40 (3)
PCS (average): 43.98 (2); 87.83 (2)
* Highlights: His win at Rostelecom Cup. His SP at Skate America. He showed improvements in his performance
* Lowlights: The free skate at Skate America. He did two 4Zs, but that's about all I remember from that performance. Toward the 1/3 end of the skate he pretty much just became a jumping bean.
* Assets: The jumps of course. But the improvements in his performance and programs have leveled him up.
* Achilles heel: Equipment issues. This did him in at Worlds and it caused him problems at Skate America.
* Chances making the Olympic team (from 1-10, with 1 being heck no and 10 being absolute lock): 9.5. Given his performance in the FS, Raf's odd hints about "private issues" in his quotes to the media, the weird equipment and his constant changes of layout, i have allowed a 0.5 point possibility that he will not make the Olympic Team, and I might be being too stingy. He is probably a lock and unless he doesn't show up for Nationals, he's going to get in.
2. Adam Rippon
Season's best scores: 266.45 (2); 89.04 (3) 177.41 (2)
Average scores: 259.44 (2) 85.89 (3) 173.55 (3)
TES (best) 45.04 (6); 91.46 (4)
TES (average) 43.38 (4); 87.41 (4)
PCS (best): 44.00 (3); 88.50 (2)
PCS (average):42.51 (3) 86.47 (3)
*Highlights: NHK FS. Credible attempt on the 4Z (though <) and clean jumps everywhere else. Making GPF for the second year in the row.
*Lowlights: The shoulder dislocation in the Skate America FS. That's about it, which is pretty noteworthy.
*Assets: Adam's been a well-balanced skater looking at the TES/PCS scores, compared to the other three guys not named Nathan. His consistency and confidence is noteworthy and he sells his programs. He hasn't missed any jumps other than the 4Z and has introduced an impressive 3F-3Lo combo.
*Achilles heel: He dislocated his shoulder and he's had issues with his shoulder previously. For now, it seems he'll be OK, but I hope he'll be careful. I'd also say that relative to some of the top men, his choreography is relatively simple and he doesn't have the best skating skills. The 4Z seems hit or miss still.
*Chances of making the Olympic team: 7. Adam's really upped his stock by being the only other U.S. man (other than Nathan) to medal at both his GPs. He may have a body of work argument, especially if he does well at GPF, but he still has to perform well at U.S. Nationals. In 2014, he was the top scoring man in the GP leading up to Nationals and sadly we saw what happened. I am optimistic for a better outcome. We'll see how he does at GPF.
3. Jason Brown
Season's best scores: 261.14 (4) 90.71 (2) 176.58 (3)
Average scores: 255.66 (3) 86.36 (2) 169.30 (4)
TES (best): 45.64 (4); 85.07 (5)
TES (average) 41.83 (7) 79.52 (5)
PCS (best): 45.07 (1); 91.80 (1)
PCS (average):44.87 (1); 90.77 (1)
*Highlights: Silver medal at Skate Canada, including a 90+ short program. His 176+ Lombardia Trophy FS remains his highest score. He also scored 90+ PCS at both Lombardia Trophy and Skate Canada.
*Lowlights: NHK Trophy, especially the free. After being squarely in the 170 range, he dropped by 10 points in the FS at that competition. He also had problems on his 3A and didn't try a quad.
*Assets: Jason has two very complex and intricate programs which show different sides of his personality. The judges seem to be rewarding him for it. He his the best spins and steps in the international field. While his NHK Trophy performance was not great, he did score +2.00 GOE in his Stsq4, only two other skaters have done that. And when he does the jumps, he can rack up +GOE points. He also seems to have an ability to add -3T, -1L-3S and 1L-3F to many of his jumps. He actually improvised at the end of his NHK Trophy performance and did a 3Lo-1L-3S, which as far as I know he's never done in competition before. His PCS scores are also in the range of the top men (and is still the highest among the U.S. men), in spite of his technical arsenal, which gives him a bit of a buffer compared to some. If he gets the TES/PCS balanced he can potentially score high. But that is a big IF at the moment.
*Achilles heel: Jason has been very inconsistent on his jumps this season. They range from minor (step out on 3Lo) to major (falling on both his 3As at NHK Trophy FS). And he still hasn't got the quad. His average TES is downright terrible compared to the other contenders.
*Chances of making the Olympic Team: 6. I will give him better odds than the other two, because he can turn in good scores when he does at least 90-95 percent of the jumps, i.e. miss the quad, but hit everything else or even a perfect quadless program. And I don't think it's out of the question we'll see a clean quad from him, as his practices seem to indicate. He also tends to peak at just the right time. Past seasons show that Jason tends to peak later in the season and give everyone (i.e. fans) fits in the meanwhile. However, he can't depend on PCS to bail him out if those jumps are MIA and I believe body of work won't help him this time. That said, he also still has a (small) shot of ending up at GPF as the first alternate, he may have a chance to change the conversation before Nationals.
Max Aaron
Season's best: 261.56 (3) 86.06 (3); 176.58 (4)
Average score: 252.82 (4) 82.60 (4) 170.21 (3)
TES (best): 48.41 (2); 94.90 (3)
TES (average): 44.82 (2); 91.40 (3)
PCS (best): 38.61 (5) 80.60 (5)
PCS (average) 38.12 (6) 78.81 (5)
Highlights: Cup of China bronze medal, where he won the free skate beating Javier Fernandez, Boyang Jin and Mikhail Kolyada.
Lowlights: He had issues at Internationaux de France, though it wasn't a complete meltdown, he was far from being even close to making GPF by finishing 7th.
Assets: He has upped his jump arsenal, adding the 4T with some good consistency and scoring high TES. He also has two good programs that he seems to enjoy performing. His overall consistency, IdF aside, also seems to be improving.
Achilles heel: Max's PCS remain low -- he has only broken 80 once and that was at U.S. International Classic. And while his BV is strong, he continues to make little errors that add up in +GOE.
Chances of making the Olympic Team: 5.5. I think him and Jason have the opposite issues (Max in PCS/GOE; Jason in TES/BV) and it will be a matter who resolves their weaknesses at U.S. Nationals. Max hasn't beat Jason at U.S. Nationals since 2013 when he won the National title, but trends can quickly change if Jason does poorly (see NHK Trophy and Adam Rippon). I think that Max could TES his way to the Olympic team.
Vincent Zhou:
Season's bests: 256.66 (5); 80.23 (10); 176.43 (5)
Average: 242.96 (5); 74.15 (9); 168.05 (5)
TES (best) 45.66 (3); 102.35 (2)
TES (average) 39.47 (8) 96.30 (1)
PCS (best): 36.57 (9); 75.94 (8)
PCS (average) 36.01 (9); 73.51 (9)
Highlights: Cup of China, where he racked up 2nd place and the highest TES of the competition.
Lowlights: All his SPs this seasons, the worst coming at Internationaux de France when he dropped to the 60s.
Assets: His jumps. He has scored fairly high TES in the FS and his season's best TES is the second highest among the U.S. men (and his TES is actually the highest in spite of the errors). If he does do all those quads his score can be big.
Achilles heel: Again, the SP issue -- for perspective his SP TES average is close to Jason Brown's, who obviously isn't attempting 2 quads in the SP. He does UR some of his jumps, though not enough for it to drop super drastically. His PCS is also low, even considering newbie senior status.
Chances of making the Olympic Team: 5. I want to keep him pretty close to the others cause I think with a few quads and a better SP performance he can surprise, just like he did last year. Will Jr. Worlds Vincent return to U.S. Nationals? We'll see (and it's worth noting that at Jr. Worlds he underperformed in the SP before crushing it in the FS, so he truly is not a great SP skater for whatever reason).
Tl;dr: Nathan's a lock. Adam has the best odds at the moment and the fight for spot 3 seems to be between Jason, Max and Vincent.
Season's best score average (between season's best in Overall,SP,FS, TES, PCS)
Nathan Chen 1.43
Jason Brown 2.86
Adam Rippon 3.29
Max Aaron 3.57
Vincent Zhou 5.71
Average ranking score (average of the averages in the above categories)
Nathan Chen 1.43
Adam Rippon 3.00
Jason Brown 3.29
Max Aaron 3.86
Vincent Zhou 6.57
Onward to GPF (Nathan, Adam) /Golden Spin (for Alexander Johnson)
of each other in that moment, because Raf gave his big smile and a sentence and happy send-off, and that was clearly enough and perfect for Adam to skate confidently back out to center ice and give that performance.:luv17:
