2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Mrs. P]

And even picking one cause you love them might not have been a stretch (I don’t know, because it was Jason who brought “back” to following skating in 2014), but can you tell me who in November 13, 2013 would have predicted Jeremy AND Jason for the 2014 Olympic team?

Anyone?

Jason's stock was rising a bit after he won bronze at Trophee Eric Bompard (RIP Eric Bompard sponsorship!) but yeah, I was kinda like -- oh goody, I get to see him live at Nationals and maybe he'll get 4CC, LOL.

I think he was a dark horse for an Olympic spot though.

This is a fun read actually: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?42790-State-of-the-U-S-Men-Post-GP-season

I had actually predicted Adam and Max and Jason getting 4CC.

 

[demarinis5]

Just need some clarification.

When picking the Olympic team, are they going only the nationals results or the 'body of work' throughout the season?

When Ashley's 4th place finish at Nationals was selected for the 2014 Olympic team for her "body of work" over Mirai's 3rd place finish.

 

[Mrs. P]

Maybe they will also consider which of the US men can deliver the FS in the most consistent and high-scoring way...I think that the USFS will have Nathan skate the SP and the second men doing the rest.
How do the four men compare to this, so far? However, I think Adam is the one so far making the best claim to the second olympic spot, the third remains wide open.

Free skate
(Best-Average-Worst)

Adam Rippon 177.41/173.55/166.19
Jason Brown 176.87/169.30/160.59
Max Aaron 176.58/170.20/158.56
Vincent Zhou 176.43/168.81/156.09

The scores are actually kinda tight when you look at it that way. Adam has had less score variations, hence his edge on average.

Edited:
Short program for fun (And the SP could tell the tale at U.S. Nationals)
(Best-Average-Worst)
Jason Brown 90.71/86.36/83.01
Adam Rippon 89.04/85.89/83.69
Max Aaron 86.06/82.60/78.64
Vincent Zhou 80.23/74.15/66.12

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

Raise your hand if on Nov. 27, 2013, you predicted Jeremy Abbott to end up on the Olympic team. If you did, I should talk to you about your GPF predictions, cause I don't think most people would have...

At that point in the season, we didn't have a Nathan really but four different men who won medals on the GP: Adam, Max, Jason and Jeremy.

(Okay Ic8Rabbit, I know YOU always believed in Jeremy, )

I still think there are four men for two spots. Fun how the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Proudly raises hand. Thank you, Mrs. P. We can talk GPF predictions if you'd like.

 

[el henry]

Jason's stock was rising a bit after he won bronze at Trophee Eric Bompard (RIP Eric Bompard sponsorship!) but yeah, I was kinda like -- oh goody, I get to see him live at Nationals and maybe he'll get 4CC, LOL.

I think he was a dark horse for an Olympic spot though.

This is a fun read actually: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?42790-State-of-the-U-S-Men-Post-GP-season

I had actually predicted Adam and Max and Jason getting 4CC.

That was fun to read, so many folks picking Adam to win it all (and in all fairness, it looked like he had the best season so far that year; a (very) few picking Jeremy, and a significant number (more than I thought would have) leaning towards Jason, at least as a preference if not a prediction.

I’m with you at this point for 2018: the two spots not labeled “Nathan Chen” are anyone’s guess.

 

[Mrs. P]

That was fun to read, so many folks picking Adam to win it all (and in all fairness, it looked like he had the best season so far that year; a (very) few picking Jeremy, and a significant number (more than I thought would have) leaning towards Jason, at least as a preference if not a prediction.

I’m with you at this point for 2018: the two spots not labeled “Nathan Chen” are anyone’s guess.

Yes. None of the the guys won medals on both GPs, but Adam had the slightly better record, having finished 2nd/4th. This was not the WD happy series this one was, so Adam was like 2nd or 3rd alternate for GPF.

Jeremy& Jason finished 3rd/5th and Max was 3rd/7th (oddly enough, Max had an uncanny ability to finish 7th at all of his 2nd GP events).

 

[lappo]

Free skate
(Best-Average-Worst)

Adam Rippon 177.41/173.55/166.19
Jason Brown 176.87/169.30/160.59
Max Aaron 176.58/170.20/158.56
Vincent Zhou 176.43/168.81/156.09

The scores are actually kinda tight when you look at it that way. Adam has had less score variations, hence his edge on average.

Edited:
Short program for fun (And the SP could tell the tale at U.S. Nationals)
(Best-Average-Worst)
Jason Brown 90.71/86.36/83.01
Adam Rippon 89.04/85.89/83.69
Max Aaron 86.06/82.60/78.64
Vincent Zhou 80.23/74.15/66.12

Thanks! The differences are not so great, I guess we will have to see first of all how Adam fares at the GPF (I forgot to make congratulations for him and Nathan for the two spots there!) and how the nationals go.

 

[KwanIsALegend]

They have the option to account for body of work, but they could just as easily go with Nationals, given that it is the top event in the top tier.

In recent years, they've only deviated from Nationals results once -- when Jason (3rd) was chosen from Worlds over Vincent (2nd). But as far as Olympics with the exception of Todd Eldridge getting an injury bye back in 1992, I think, I think USFS has just gone by Nationals results (though in 2014, 3rd place finisher Max got Worlds over Jason).

IMO, I don't think anyone other than Nathan has a body of work argument to save them if they're not top 3 at Nationals. Adam, if he does well at GPF, may be able to sneak in if he gets 4th.

Not to sound weird, I mean, I know every competition matters and is experience. But if they are going to choose from only the result from nationals then what is the point of the GP and the GPF events?

 

[Mrs. P]

Not to sound weird, I mean, I know every competition matters and is experience. But if they are going to choose from only the result from nationals then what is the point of the GP and the GPF events?

Body of Work should be carefully used. It's already a slippery slope to use it occasionally. Even when it's clear why a certain skater should get a slot because of body of work, there's still a ton of consternation. See Jason v. Vincent last year. :/ For the record, even as a fan, I certainly would have been fine if they decided to go with Nationals results. I'm glad Jason got the opportunity and he certainly contributed to 3 spots, especially since Nathan underperformed, but I don't think it should (or probably would) be extended to him again this season, especially since he (I hope!) probably won't be injured (hence influencing his nationals result), he's had a so-so GP season and everyone's scores are super close. And honestly after last year's back-and-forth over world team selection I really don't want to have to relive all the the debate again.

GPF berth may or may not be enough for Adam if he finishes outside the top 3. It certainly was not enough for Jeremy Abbott back in 2011, who actually missed third place by like .19 points. Despite being the reigning U.S. Champ and the only US man to qualify for GPF that season, USFS opted to send Ross, a relative newbie, anyway. Of course 2018 selection committee may have a completely different take (and will since the criteria is different).

Body of work criteria gives USFS some flexibility if a top contender has a bad day at the rink, but USFS will probably be more inclined to limit using that criteria. Ultimately U.S. Nationals is still the #1 factor in choosing Olympic team members.

The body-of-work thing may be more of a factor for Worlds spots -- so I could see Adam being sent to Worlds if he finishes 4th over whoever finishes third.

 

[Tahuu]

Selecting an Olympics team may be a little different than a world team as there is no spots on the line to earn for the former. Would the judges and the committee give some sympathy and reward to a veteran who has not been to the Olympics and a future hopeful and put them on the 2nd and 3rd podiums and the Olympics team?

 

[gottadance]

Selecting an Olympics team may be a little different than a world team as there is no spots on the line to earn for the former. Would the judges and the committee give some sympathy and reward to a veteran who has not been to the Olympics and a future hopeful and put them on the 2nd and 3rd podiums and the Olympics team?

I was thinking the same thing - in a way the fact that there are no future spots at Worlds on the line with this particular selection I feel as though the USFSA can be a bit more forward thinking with their choices. Much as I respect your thoughts about a deserving veteran , I beleive we have to look to the future so I personally would go with an up and comer like Vincent ( based on a good showing at Nationals ) .

 

[Mrs. P]

The body of work doesn't really account for either "sympathy veteran spots" or "the future."

If they want to do that, they should just choose people for the Olympic team and not bother with a competition then. And I'm not trying to be fallacious, cause other countries do just pick Olympic team members.

Personally, I think all five (and those below that even) contenders are working really hard and I'd like to see it be determined on how that work translates to actual competition.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Random question: Does Adam ever rotate the 4Lz in practice, or is this just something he does because it accrues more points that a 2A?

 

[Mrs. P]

Random question: Does Adam ever rotate the 4Lz in practice, or is this just something he does because it accrues more points that a 2A?

I think Adam says he rotates in practice. But I'm sure someone can cite a recent source that says that. His detractors certainlly say he does it for points, but it's hard to say for sure.

 

[Moxiejan]

I was thinking the same thing - in a way the fact that there are no future spots at Worlds on the line with this particular selection I feel as though the USFSA can be a bit more forward thinking with their choices. Much as I respect your thoughts about a deserving veteran , I beleive we have to look to the future so I personally would go with an up and comer like Vincent ( based on a good showing at Nationals ) .

Or, we could consider the opposite: Since there are no future spots on the line, a deserving veteran who has never been to Olympics (and won't be around in 4 years for another chance) should be rewarded there, and the promising newcomer with a higher-scoring potential should go to Worlds.

ETA: Reading back, I see that that's what Tahuu just said

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Adam says he rotates in practice. But I'm sure someone can cite a recent source that says that. His detractors certainlly say he does it for points, but it's hard to say for sure.

I'm fine with him doing it for the points. I was just thinking that could be the case because if he can't rotate and land any of the quads, why not go for the hardest one and get the most points?

 

[Mrs. P]

I'm fine with him doing it for the points. I was just thinking that could be the case because if he can't rotate and land any of the quads, why not go for the hardest one and get the most points?

The only concern is how it could wreak havoc with his body, like we saw at SkAm. I'd prefer clean programs, but I can't blame the him for doing whatever he thinks will get the most points.

 

[mrrice]

The only concern is how it could wreak havoc with his body, like we saw at SkAm. I'd prefer clean programs, but I can't blame the him for doing whatever he thinks will get the most points.

I was always better at Lutz's than toe loops and flips. I was afraid of Sals because I suffered a serious groin injury while training them. I think it was because of my dance training that I had an easier time with the Lutz jump. Adam has beautiful turnout and I wonder if that has something to do with it.

 

[andromache]

I think Adam says he rotates in practice. But I'm sure someone can cite a recent source that says that. His detractors certainlly say he does it for points, but it's hard to say for sure.

We've seen at least one on video that was rotated and landed in practice. I think it was during a practice session a year or two ago.

And if he does it for points (this is aimed at the detractors, not you Mrs. P)...so what? Everyone does everything for points. Hanyu was doing a quad salchow fall for point in 2014, Eteri's skaters do arm variations of varying quality for points, etc. Risk-reward-wise, it's clear that Adam sees the risk as being worth the points (and given his jump layout, I am inclined to agree).

 

[MRani]

Didn’t Jackie Wong say Adam landed 2 clean 4Lzs in practice at SkAm? So if we believe Jackie, yes, Adam is actually able to land them fully rotated in practice as recently as 1 week ago.