2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[gottadance]

Oh? And what was his justification for this? Let me guess, the vague/idiotic "the future!" and "technical potential!" arguments?



I don't think Jason has done enough to bump Max if Jason finishes 4th (which is still on the podium at US Nats!). The USFS, on the other hand...

I think his comment is based on the sad fact ( which I deplore ) that neither Jason nor Adam have any realistic chance of medalling at the Olympics due to their lack of technical content, despite their awesome artistic abilities - Vincent does have the technical content so the USFSA could make the argument that we should send somebody that could medal if they skate lights out vs somebody who cant medal no matter what . It will of course depend totally on how Vincent performs at Nationals.
Before everybody jumps down my throat , I ADORE Jason and I am so so so sad that he cant master quads .I cant wait for Nationals - it will be beyond exciting but I am also sad in advance as there is going to be a great deal of heartache also involving some truly wonderful and dedicated young men.

 

[Mrs. P]

I think his comment is based on the sad fact ( which I deplore ) that neither Jason nor Adam have any realistic chance of medalling at the Olympics due to their lack of technical content, despite their awesome artistic abilities - Vincent does have the technical content so the USFSA could make the argument that we should send somebody that could medal if they skate lights out vs somebody who cant medal no matter what . It will of course depend totally on how Vincent performs at Nationals.
Before everybody jumps down my throat , I ADORE Jason and I am so so so sad that he cant master quads .I cant wait for Nationals - it will be beyond exciting but I am also sad in advance as there is going to be a great deal of heartache also involving some truly wonderful and dedicated young men.

It's a pretty common response and I get why people have that logic. And FWIW, Vincent does have the highest TES average in the free skate as of late. Max's TES is also pretty high (but not as high as Vincent's) and Jason's FS TES is not that great right now.

I don't think quads and Jason are a lost cause though. It seems he takes FOREVER to master jumps, but he gets them eventually. I don't know if he'll get them this season (though that would be nice) but I don't think it's out of the question that we'll see at least one quad from him down the road.

It is going to be pretty heartbreaking -- that I agree on.

 

[lappo]

It's a pretty common response and I get why people have that logic. And FWIW, Vincent does have the highest TES average in the free skate as of late. Max's TES is also pretty high (but not as high as Vincent's) and Jason's FS TES is not that great right now.

I don't think quads and Jason are a lost cause though. It seems he takes FOREVER to master jumps, but he gets them eventually. I don't know if he'll get them this season (though that would be nice) but I don't think it's out of the question that we'll see at least one quad from him down the road.

It is going to be pretty heartbreaking -- that I agree on.

I said that before and I'm going to repeat it: Nathan is of course the hope for podium placement right now, the others are all in contention for the two remaining spots. I think that the federation will give careful attention not only to the chance they have at individual placements in the Olympics (which are, of course, important) but also to how much contribution their LP can bring to the team event (I think they will let Nathan skate the SP to test the ice and qualify and let the second guy do the LP - or, at least, I hope so). However, I hope that there won't be any need of backdoor decisions and that the guys bring their best at Nationals and let their hard work speak for them and decide the spots.

 

[Mrs. P]

I said that before and I'm going to repeat it: Nathan is of course the hope for podium placement right now, the others are all in contention for the two remaining spots. I think that the federation will give careful attention not only to the chance they have at individual placements in the Olympics (which are, of course, important) but also to how much contribution their LP can bring to the team event (I think they will let Nathan skate the SP to test the ice and qualify and let the second guy do the LP - or, at least, I hope so). However, I hope that there won't be any need of backdoor decisions and that the guys bring their best at Nationals and let their hard work speak for them and decide the spots.

Oh yeah me too. At this point, other than Nathan, I cannot see BOW bailing any of the other four guys out if they're not in the top 3 at Nationals. And the team event FS is not even that much of a factor because all the guys basically scored the same (176-177) in the FS this season and if someone dazzles in the FS, they're likely in the top 3 anyway.

 

[Mrs. P]

Post-GP/Pre-Nationals Report, Part 2: Da Numbers.

All season long, I've been tracking U.S. men in the following:
Overall score
SP
FS
SP TES
SP PCS
FS TES
FS PCS

I looked at two main things with these numbers: Season's best and average. I then ranked all the men based on those two things. I then did an average of the season's best and average ranks for those categories and this is what I came up with. I also have numbers for each of the categories below. I have tracked 14 men who competed on the Challenger Series and/or Grand Prix and will be seniors. I do have numbers for Camden Pulkinen, so if you guys want those, I can share them.

Okay that should be enough for three weeks of discussion right?

Season's best average ranking (best ranking category; worst ranking category)
Nathan Chen 1.29 (He's No. 1 in every category except FS PCS, where he's 3rd).
Jason Brown 3.00 (FS PCS (#1); FS TES (#5))
Adam Rippon 3.14 (Overall, FS, FS PCS (#2); SP TES (#6))
Max Aaron 3.86 (SP TES (#2); SP PCS (#6) )
Vincent Zhou 5.86 (FS TES (#2); SP/FS PCS (#9)
Alexander Johnson 7.14 (SP, SP TES (#5); FS TES (#9)
---
Alexei Kraszoshon 7.29 (SP TES (#5); SP PCS (#11)
Ross Miner 7.71 ( SP/FS PCS (#4); SP TES (#14)
Grant Hochstein 8.43 (SP, SP PCS, FS PCS (#7); FS TES (#12)
Timothy Dolensky 9.43 (FS PCS (#6); FS TES (#13))
Andrew Torgashev 10.43 (FS TES (#8); SP TES/ FS PCS (#12))
Tomoki Hiwatashi 11.86 (SP/FS TES (#10); FS PCS (#14)
Sean Rabbitt 12.29 (FS PCS (#10); SP (#14)
Jordan Moeller 13.29 (SP TES (#11); Overall, SP PCS, FS FS TES (#14)

Average of average rankings (best category; worse category)

Nathan Chen 1.43 (No. 1 in everything except SP PCS, FS TES/PCS, No. 2)
Adam Rippon 3.00 ( Overall Score/FS (#2); SP TES/FS TES (#4)
Jason Brown 3.43 (SP/FS PCS (#1); SP TES (#7)
Max Aaron 3.86 (SP TES (#2); FS PCS (#6)
Vincent Zhou 6.43 (FS TES (#1); SP, SP/FS PCS (#9)
Alexander Johnson 6.43 (SP PCS (#4); Overall, FS, FS TES (#8)
---
Alexei Krasnozshon 7.29 (SP TES (#3); FS PCS (#11)
Ross Miner 7.43 (FS PCS (#4); SP TES (#14)
Timothy Dolensky 8.29 (SP TES/ FS PCS (#6); FS TES (#13)
Grant Hochstein 9.00 (SP PCS (#7); FS TES (#11)
Sean Rabbitt 11.00 (FS TES/PCS (#10); SP TES/PCS (#12)
Tomoki Hiwatashi 12.29 (FS TES (#9); SP, FS PCS (#14)
Jordan Moeller 12.43 (SP TES (#9); SP PCS, FS, FS TES (#14)
Andrew Torgashev 13.00(SP PCS (#12); Overall (#14)

Overall SB
Nathan Chen 293.79
Adam Rippon 266.45
Max Aaron 261.56
Jason Brown 261.14
Vincent Zhou 256.66
Alexei Krasnozhon 236.35
---
Ross Miner 233.72
Alexander Johnson 226.04
Grant Hochstein 217.52
Timothy Dolensky 214.94
Andrew Torgashev 212.71
Tomoki Hiwatashi 206.28
Sean Rabbit 204.46
Jordan Moeller 191.73

Overall Average
Nathan Chen 282.81
Adam Rippon 258.16
Jason Brown 255.20
Max Aaron 252.82
Vincent Zhou 242.96
Ross Miner 224.43
--
Alexei Krasnozhon 223.40
Alexander Johnson 222.46
Timothy Dolensky 214.94
Grant Hochstein 213.35
Sean Rabbit 204.46
Tomoki Hiwatashi 198.09
Jordan Moeller 191.73
Andrew Torgashev 190.39



SP Season’s Best
Nathan Chen 104.12
Jason Brown 90.71
Adam Rippon 89.04
Max Aaron 86.06
Alexander Johnson 82.55
Alexei Krasnozhon 81.33
---
Grant Hochstein 80.55
Vincent Zhou 80.23
Timothy Dolensky 78.75
Andrew Torgashev 74.34
Tomoki Hiwatashi 73.28
Ross Miner 76.64
Jordan Moeller 70.75
Sean Rabbit 68.60

SP Average
Nathan Chen 99.95
Jason Brown 87.03
Adam Rippon 85.97
Max Aaron 82.60
Alexander Johnson 80.68
Alexei Krasnozhon 79.21
---
Timothy Dolensky 78.75
Grant Hochstein 76.03
Vincent Zhou 74.15
Ross Miner 71.02
Jordan Moeller 70.75
Sean Rabbit 68.80
Andrew Torgashev 67.41
Tomoki HIwatashi 67.32

FS Season’s Best
Nathan Chen 195.92
Adam Rippon 177.41
Jason Brown 176.87
Max Aaron 176.58
Vincent Zhou 176.43
---
Ross Miner 162.08
Alexei Krasnozhon 155.02
Alexander Johnson 143.49
Grant Hochstein 138.53
Andrew Torgashev 138.37
Timothy Dolensky 136.19
Sean Rabbit 135.86
Tomoki Hiwatashi 133.00
Jordan Moeller 120.98

FS Average
Nathan Chen 183.53
Adam Rippon 172.20
Max Aaron 170.21
Vincent Zhou 168.81
Jason Brown 168.17
Ross Miner 153.41
---
Alexei Krasnozhon 144.19
Alexander Johnson 141.79
Grant Hochstein 137.32
Timothy Dolensky 136.19
Sean Rabbit 135.86
Tomoki Hiwatashi 130.77
Andrew Torgashev 123.55
Jordan Moeller 120.98

SP TES (Personal Best)
Nathan Chen 59.56
Max Aaron 48.41
Vincent Zhou 45.66
Jason Brown 45.64
Alexei Krasnozhon 45.26
Adam Rippon 45.04
---
Alexander Johnson 44.35
Grant Hochstein 42.93
Timothy Dolensky 42.50
Tomoki Hiwatashi 40.89
Jordan Moeller 39.25
Andrew Torgashev 37.98
Sean Rabbit 36.23
Ross Miner 33.51

SP TES (Average)
Nathan Chen 54.84
Max Aaron 44.82
Alexei Krasnozhson 43.85
Adam Rippon 43.18
Alexander Johnson 42.70
Timothy Dolensky 42.50
---
Jason Brown 42.45
Vincent Zhou 39.47
Jordan Moeller 39.25
Grant Hochstein 38.98
Sean Rabbit 36.11
Tomoki Hiwatashi 35.23
Andrew Torgashev 33.83
Ross Miner 32.76

FS TES (Season’s Best)
Nathan Chen 104.85
Vincent Zhou 102.35
Max Aaron 96.60
Adam Rippon 91.46
Jason Brown 85.07
---
Alexei Krasnozhon 82.88
Ross Miner 80.86
Andrew Torgashev 69.31
Alexander Johnson 68.21
Tomoki Hiwatashi 66.22
Sean Rabbitt 64.86
Grant Hochstein 61.84
Timothy Dolensky 59.79
Jordan Moeller 55.68

FS TES (Average)
Vincent Zhou 96.30
Nathan Chen 95.64
Max Aaron 91.40
Adam Rippon 86.00
Jason Brown 78.57
Ross Miner 77.34
---
Alexei Krasnozhon 74.14
Alexander Johnson 65.85
Tomoki Hiwatashi 64.95
Sean Rabbit 64.86
Grant Hochstein 63.93
Timothy Dolensky 59.79
Andrew Torgashev 57.26
Jordan Moeller 55.68

SP PCS (Season’s Best)
Nathan Chen 45.18
Jason Brown 45.07
Adam Rippon 44.00
Ross Miner 38.96
Alexander Johnson 38.75
Max Aaron 38.61
---
Grant Hochstein 38.05
Timothy Dolensky 37.25
Vincent Zhou 36.57
Andrew Torgashev 36.36
Alexei Krasnozhon 35.01
Sean Rabbitt 34.90
Tomoki Hiwatashi 32.39
Jordan Moeller 31.50

SP PCS (Average)
Jason Brown 44.83
Nathan Chen 44.28
Adam Rippon 42.79
Alexander Johnson 38.48
Ross Miner 38.26
Max Aaron 38.12
---
Grant Hochstein 37.72
Timothy Dolensky 37.25
Vincent Zhou 36.01
Alexei Krasnozhon 35.36
Sean Rabbitt 34.90
Andrew Torgashev 34.08
Tomoki Hiwatashi 32.09
Jordan Moeller 31.50

FS PCS (Season’s Best)
Jason Brown 91.80
Adam Rippon 88.50
Nathan Chen 88.44
Ross Miner 82.08
Max Aaron 80.60
Timothy Dolensky 77.40
---
Grant Hochstein 76.70
Alexander Johnson 76.50
Vincent Zhou 75.94
Alexei Krasnozhon 73.70
Sean Rabbitt 72.39
Andrew Torgashev 72.28
Jordan Moeller 67.30
Tomoki Hiwatashi 66.78

FS PCS (Average)
Jason Brown 90.60
Nathan Chen 87.98
Adam Rippon 86.70
Ross Miner 79.41
Max Aaron 78.81
Timothy Dolensky 77.40
---
Alexander Johnson 75.89
Grant Hochstein 74.73
Vincent Zhou 73.51
Sean Rabbitt 72.39
Alexei Krasnozhon 70.81
Jordan Moeller 67.30
Andrew Torgashev 67.25
Tomoki Hiwatashi 65.82

 

[Jaana]

Thanks for your list, Mrs. P, lots of work!!!

This is though the one statistic that interests me most of all:

Overall SB
Nathan Chen 293.79
Adam Rippon 266.45
Max Aaron 261.56
Jason Brown 261.14
Vincent Zhou 256.66
Alexei Krasnozhon 236.35
Ross Miner 233.72
Alexander Johnson 226.04
Grant Hochstein 217.52
Timothy Dolensky 214.94
Andrew Torgashev 212.71
Tomoki Hiwatashi 206.28
Sean Rabbit 204.46
Jordan Moeller 191.73

as it shows what the skaters have been capable of so far in this season and from there they will need to increase their scores at the Nationals. At this moment from Rippon to Zhou the scores are really close, just one successful quad more will change the situation a lot. At least Aaron and Zhou are skaters who have the possibility to increase their technical scores in a big scale and hopefully to increase their PCS a bit, too. Of course that means they have to be nearly faultless in all of their jumps and other technical element. As the Olympics are so close I´d assume that all the guys are almost at their best condition for the Nationals. Good luck everyone!!!

 

[Tavi...]

Mrs P -

Thanks as always for a great post - it’s always so interesting to see the data and your analysis. A couple of things: How useful do you think averages are at this point in the season? It occurred to me that because some guys have competed twice, some three times, and some four times, the averages could be comparatively skewed if there is a big variation in a skater’s scores. For example example, Vincent had one low-scoring competition out of three, so it represents a third of his average score. For someone like Adam, it only accounts for 25% of his average score, so it pulls the average down less.

Obviously we can’t change the number of competitions, but I sometimes think it’s more interesting to look at the spread between the highest and lowest scores. It doesnt help you estimate the probability that the risk will occur, but it does give you some idea of the potential magnitude of the risk if it does occur. I also think it’s interesting to look at scoring trends - when did the best and worst scores occur? I’m no statistician and maybe we don’t have enough data points, but I do think it’s interesting.

Also, I kind of wonder about how the body of work criteria are applied. I know what the criteria are for each tier. But practically speaking, how might the committee use them?

I’m asking because you’ve said several times that you don’t think the committee would bump someone in order to put Jason in if he was out of the top 3, because he hasn’t done enough. You may well be right, but how might the committee determine that?

Would they just look at where he meets the criteria and conclude that he only scored 6th at 4CCs and GPF and 7th at Worlds, and earned one silver GP medal, and that’s not impressive enough to bump someone out of third place? Or is this kind of criteria usually quantified and added to the raw score (the 2018 Nats score) to determine a different placement, ie, placement 6-10 at Worlds is worth an extra 2 points, and so forth, and if the sum total of your raw score plus additions isn’t higher than the guy above you’s raw score plus additions, you don’t bump him? Do you (does anyone?) have any idea?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I don't care who the other skater is on the team but I really really really really!!! want Nathan and Jason on the team
Adam would be a nice third guy to have there too

 

[noskates]

Mrs. P - you rock! Thank you for the time you must put in on posting the stats the way you do.

My perfect Oly team is Nathan, Jason and Adam. Don't care in what order.

 

[Mrs. P]

Obviously we can’t change the number of competitions, but I sometimes think it’s more interesting to look at the spread between the highest and lowest scores. It doesnt help you estimate the probability that the risk will occur, but it does give you some idea of the potential magnitude of the risk if it does occur. I also think it’s interesting to look at scoring trends - when did the best and worst scores occur? I’m no statistician and maybe we don’t have enough data points, but I do think it’s interesting.

Also, I kind of wonder about how the body of work criteria are applied. I know what the criteria are for each tier. But practically speaking, how might the committee use them?

I’m asking because you’ve said several times that you don’t think the committee would bump someone in order to put Jason in if he was out of the top 3, because he hasn’t done enough. You may well be right, but how might the committee determine that?

Would they just look at where he meets the criteria and conclude that he only scored 6th at 4CCs and GPF and 7th at Worlds, and earned one silver GP medal, and that’s not impressive enough to bump someone out of third place? Or is this kind of criteria usually quantified and added to the raw score (the 2018 Nats score) to determine a different placement, ie, placement 6-10 at Worlds is worth an extra 2 points, and so forth, and if the sum total of your raw score plus additions isn’t higher than the guy above you’s raw score plus additions, you don’t bump him? Do you (does anyone?) have any idea?

I'd be glad to give more numbers, season's worst/best, progression. Whatever. Average/Season's Best was just two very different factors that I felt would be useful information to know.

As for my assertion on BOW, I don't have any information on how they weight the tiers. But the fact is that Nationals is Tier 1, No. 1. With Worlds/GPF as secondary factors. And USFS has not tapped the BOW that often, although relatively speaking they're using it more now.

What I know is that 7th place (and top finisher status) at Worlds + bronze at SkAm did not help Max get the Olympic spot over Jason (though he did get to go to Worlds). Jason comes into Nationals with a similar scenario -- one GP medal, 7th place at Worlds. I don't know if USFS might be more flexible since there are three spots, instead of two, but based on what USFS has done previously, I don't see Jason getting an Olympic spot if he's not top 3 (though I see him going to Worlds if he's 4th, just like Max did)

 

[sheetz]

My sense is that the previous Worlds is considered Tier 1 to account for skaters like Michelle who medaled and then and decided to skip the GP circuit the following season. Otherwise it really shouldn't be valued as much as more recent GP results.

 

[ask]

Nathan + next top 2 go regardless of what Nathan will do. His ticket is punched at the GPF.

 

[Tavi...]

I'd be glad to give more numbers, season's worst/best, progression. Whatever. Average/Season's Best was just two very different factors that I felt would be useful information to know.

As for my assertion on BOW, I don't have any information on how they weight the tiers. But the fact is that Nationals is Tier 1, No. 1. With Worlds/GPF as secondary factors. And USFS has not tapped the BOW that often, although relatively speaking they're using it more now.

What I know is that 7th place (and top finisher status) at Worlds + bronze at SkAm did not help Max get the Olympic spot over Jason (though he did get to go to Worlds). Jason comes into Nationals with a similar scenario -- one GP medal, 7th place at Worlds. I don't know if USFS might be more flexible since there are three spots, instead of two, but based on what USFS has done previously, I don't see Jason getting an Olympic spot if he's not top 3 (though I see him going to Worlds if he's 4th, just like Max did)

Hi Mrs P - More number crunching is always welcome, but you should only do it if you have time and you want to. I mentioned those things because I find them interesting, but you and others may not. The averages you do are a ton of work, and I think they’re great at the end of the season because there is generally more data - and because you can compare a skater’s current year performance to his prior year average. I recently did an average of all of Jason’s total scores last year, using international competitions (including NHK and WTT) but not Nats. I was really surprised that it was just about the same as his current average - around 255.

Re the criteria - I understand your logic now! Max 2014 didn’t occur to me as a comparator. I wonder if they would have chosen a different team if Jason hadn’t brought down the house and they hadn’t already chosen Ashley over Mirai. The fact that they put Max on the Worlds Team suggests they might have, but I guess we’ll never know. And as I think about it, the denial of Jason’s petition for the World Team a couple of years ago also suggests they’re more likely to go with the top finishers.

Three weeks.

 

[Mrs. P]

I have a spreadsheet with formulas. So averaging wasn't that much work. What would you like to know?

ETA: Re Jason's scores.

I happen to have last season's spreadsheet open, so looking at that. Jason's average (didn't include WTT or Nationals) was 255.21, so WTT wasn't that much of a factor in the average.

His TES average was 41.97/83.46
His PCS average was 43.66/87.60

This season:
255.20 (woah)
TES: 42.45/78.57
PCS: 44.83/90.60

So he's actually faring better in the SP this season than last with the FS being the complete opposite.

 

[Tavi...]

I have a spreadsheet with formulas. So averaging wasn't that much work. What would you like to know?

Ohhhhh - only if you have time and you want to!

Not sure how much trouble this would be, or if you know how to do graphs in excel, but I would love to see a line graph of total scores, maybe showing data for the top 5 guys in one graph. I think actual rather than average scores would be most interesting, and I actually would love to see them from fall 2016 to present, because it would give a clear visual representation of how consistent each guy is and how much - and when - they’re struggling, compared to each other. You could put competition dates on the x axis and score on the y axis. If it’s not possible to display a graph like that on GS, it’s probably not worth doing it. Even if it’s possible, if it’s a lot of trouble, please don’t bother!

Are you sorry you asked?

ETA thank you for the Jason info. It was really encouraging to me to see how well he’s doing with his SP and the increase in PCS. Basically the PCS is picking up some of the slack versus the TES loss. He’s still not close to his best scores of last year in any category except PCS. SP total isn’t far off though, which is interesting.

 

[Mrs. P]

Here you go: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xsoU1lgQMV3n3KD1nHDDULLG0p8eWfPx7I28Sa_JrW8/edit?usp=sharing

To make the graph viewable I basically had to put Vincent, Adam and Max's most recent scores in the boxes where Jason and Nathan were at spring comps. But I think you get the general idea of the trend.

 

[Tavi...]

Here you go: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xsoU1lgQMV3n3KD1nHDDULLG0p8eWfPx7I28Sa_JrW8/edit?usp=sharing

To make the graph viewable I basically had to put Vincent, Adam and Max's most recent scores in the boxes where Jason and Nathan were at spring comps. But I think you get the general idea of the trend.

Oh wow thank you! Great work!

It’s actually quite fascinating to see the relationships - but what’s clear is there’s no real pattern we can use to predict anything going forward, except Nathan will be miles above everyone. But fascinating that everyone kind of takes a downturn - Olympic pressure?

 

[Mrs. P]

Also I added Nathan's scores from JGPF i the first column and Adam's score from Worlds in the first column since they did only one Senior B (Max and Jason did two). Vincent did JGP hence his right upfront.

Also I realize I DID count WTT cause it was a season's best event.

 

[Tavi...]

Also I added Nathan's scores from JGPF i the first column and Adam's score from Worlds in the first column since they did only one Senior B (Max and Jason did two). Vincent did JGP hence his right upfront.

Also I realize I DID count WTT cause it was a season's best event.

Yes, it was interesting to see how relatively close Jason and Nathan were at Worlds/WTT. It also really brought home to me that if either Jason or Adam had skated perfectly clean at GPF with one landed quad, they might have taken bronze there. Sadly, it was a missed opportunity for both of them.

 

[mrrice]

Is Alexei K. going to compete as a Senior at Nationals? I know he's young but, he looks much older than Nathan and Vincent.