2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Heleng]

Who do I want?
Nathan, Jason, and Max

Who do I think?
Nathan, Jason, and Adam

Ditto.

 

[Mrs. P]

So far....

Who people want
Nathan - 10.5
Max - 8.0
Jason - 5.0
Vincent - 4
Adam - 3.5
Ross -1
Skater not to be named laugh: 1



Who people think will get a spot
Nathan -13
Adam -10
Jason - 6.5
Max - 5
Vincent - 4.5



I've given 1/2 point if they're lumped in a group and 1 if they are in a "spot."

 

[SnowWhite]

Who I want: Nathan, Adam, Alexei
Who I want considering Alexei isn't ready yet and also doesn't have his citizenship: Nathan, Adam, Jason/Max
Who I think: Nathan, Adam, Jason/Vincent

I love Nathan's SP, and of course he'll be on the team. I've really become an Adam fan this season as well. And Alexei, well he isn't polished, but I can't help but like him. And the little interview he did with Ted after he won the his 2nd JGP was cute. He said he was watching Joseph Phan (CAN) skate right before him and was really hoping he'd nail his quad. I just like his attitude. More realistically, I want to see him and 4CC.

 

[ice coverage]

... Also, I don’t think Max has ever landed four quads in a FS in competition. He has landed 2 in the SP and 2 or 3 (can’t remember which) in FS.

Max had three quads in the FS at the U.S. Classic this season; also at Cup of China.

He has mentioned having a fourth quad for the FS in his back pocket for Nats.
Whether he will decide to go for it is (IMO) anyone's guess, unless/until we see planned content sheets.

---

Forgot to mention another thing re Christy Krall:

She has become yet another member of Vincent's large team, per his recent Instagram with Christy and Tammy:

It was wonderful working with Tammy here in Colorado, and it's also been great having Christy on the team! We've taken big strides in my form and appearance, and I look forward to more smart and effective work with them!

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bcf4OGOFEYa/?taken-by=govincentzhou (Dec 9)​

---

Who I want for the 2018 Games: Max + Nathan + third man is too close too call

Who I think: Nathan + second and third men are too close to call

 

[labgoat]

I really seriously don't think the Olympics is the time to cultivate talent for the future. That should happen at the Grand Prix events and the B competitions.

Agreed, That is what Worlds after the Olympics is for.

 

[karne]

I really seriously don't think the Olympics is the time to cultivate talent for the future. That should happen at the Grand Prix events and the B competitions. If Vincent gets buried on PCS then he knows what he has to do in the next 4 years.

Agreed. The Olympics is not for "the future" or "experience". Especially when the here and now is capable of doing just as good a job, if not a better one, than the "future".

And here's an article from Lynn Rutherford on the U.S. men's field: http://www.usfigureskatingfanzone.c...pionships-chen-arrives-armed-with-five-quads/

Well looking at that it's no prizes for guessing who the USFS wants. Two-thirds of that article is devoted to Chen. Jason gets a paragraph, Adam gets a whole sentence of his own, and Vincent and Max are squashed into one sentence almost as an afterthought. Exactly what I feared.

 

[TMC]

Want: Nathan, Max, Jason

Will go: Nathan, Adam, Max

 

[Mrs. P]

I'm daring someone to be like "Oh, nah, I don't really want Nathan to be on the team." LOL. If Nathan did not have a trillion quads and was our hope for medals, I'd be interested to see how many people sincerely want him on the team. I think he'd still be up there, but not on everyone's "want" list.

SnowWhite, I'm counting your first "want" cause "want" is just that -- it disregards things like "citizenship," LOL.

 

[andromache]

Want: Nathan, Adam, Max
Will go: Nathan, Adam, Jason

Nathan may have a trillion quads and is our medal hope, but he also has two beautifully choreographed programs - the SP especially will be very appealing for the every-four-years crowd.

Jason had his Olympic experience 4 years ago, and his jumps today seem weaker than they were then. But his PCS give him a cushion over Max and Vincent. I want both Adam and Max to get the chance to go the Olympics.

 

[Mrs. P]

As I said Nathan would still be up there (the SP is great, FS needs work - imo), but I do think some people would not have him on the "want" team if he wasn't a medal prospect.

Also I disagree Jason's jumps are weaker than for years ago. If you look at the GOE for when he gets the 3A for instance, they're much higher. He's also a much better skater overall as far as speed and flow. That gets missed in the whole jump-oriented discussion.

I find the whole "give everyone a chance at the Olympics" thing kind of interesting. I don't think Jason, Ashley, the Shibs, or Chock/Bates would be like "Eh I had my experience!" and be less disappointed if they didn't make the team.

 

[NoNameFace]

Who I would like to see at Olympics - too many US male skaters
Who I predict to go - Nathan, Adam and Jason

 

[andromache]

Also I disagree Jason's jumps are weaker than for years ago. If you look at the GOE for when he gets the 3A for instance, they're much higher. He's also a much better skater overall as far as speed and flow. That gets missed in the whole jump-oriented discussion.

Oh, Jason is a far superior skater than he was four years ago. Incredible skating skills - his PCS are well-deserved.

His 3A is far less reliable than it was four years ago and is clearly becoming a problem jump for him, and I'm not confident in his lutz anymore, either. He's no longer the consistency guy among the US men - if he was sacrificing consistency for quads, fine, but that isn't the case. The quad attempts have stopped in competition, which makes me think that the quad is not going well in practice.

Jason and his team's strategy has worked in the sense that he gets reliably high PCS that keeps him close enough to the top guys, but from a technical point of view Jason is having problems. Placing outside of the top 3 at Nationals and not going to the Olympics could be a wake-up call for him and his team.

(Ultimately I don't follow Jason + his team too closely, so maybe I'm missing something - just my observations based on his season so far.)

 

[Mrs. P]

Oh, Jason is a far superior skater than he was four years ago. Incredible skating skills - his PCS are well-deserved.

His 3A is far less reliable than it was four years ago and is clearly becoming a problem jump for him, and I'm not confident in his lutz anymore, either. He's no longer the consistency guy among the US men - if he was sacrificing consistency for quads, fine, but that isn't the case. The quad attempts have stopped in competition, which makes me think that the quad is not going well in practice.

Jason and his team's strategy has worked in the sense that he gets reliably high PCS that keeps him close enough to the top guys, but from a technical point of view Jason is having problems. Placing outside of the top 3 at Nationals and not going to the Olympics could be a wake-up call for him and his team.

(Ultimately I don't follow Jason + his team too closely, so maybe I'm missing something - just my observations based on his season so far.)

Interestingly enough four years ago, it was most reliable in the SP, where he didn't miss a single 3A all season long. It was FAR less reliable in the FS.

SP (all rotated/ +GOE):
Nebelhorn Trophy: 9.36
Skate America: 9.64
Trophee Eric Bompard: 9.64
U.S. Nationals: 8.79
Olympics: 9.36

FS:
Nebelhorn Trophy: 3A-3T, 13.17; 3A << 1.80
Skate America: 3A << 1.80; 3A-1T (-GOE) 6.76
Trophee Eric Bompard: 3A-2T, 9.66 (-GOE); 1A
U.S. Nationals: 3A-3T 14.03 (+1.43 GOE); 3A< 5.00
Olympics Team: 3A-3T 13.31 (+0.71 GOE) 3A< 5.14
Olympics(individual event): 3A-3T< 8.69; 3A< 3.00

Looking back, it's kinda amazing he even made the Olympic Team given that the 3A was REALLY inconsistent in the FS. But nobody remembers that because of Riverdance going viral .

Here are his attempts this season

SP:
Lombardia Trophy: 7.10 (-1.40 GOE)
Skate Canada 7.79 (-0.71 GOE)
NHK Trophy : 6.93 (-1.57 GOE)
GPF: 9.93 (+1.43 GOE)


FS:
Lombardia Trophy: 3A 10.50 (2.00 GOE); 3A-2T 11.38 (0.6 GOE)
Skate Canada: 3A< 5.04; 3A-3T 15.37 (1.29 GOE)
NHK Trophy: 3A 5.50 (-3 GOE) 3A< -REP 1.54;
GPF: 3A 8.5 (0 GOE); 3A<-REP 1.13

So the difference is that he's far less consistent in the SP than he was four years ago as far as getting +GOE, but still rotates them. He's kind all over the place in the FS, pretty much the same as four years ago.

As for the lutz, he's only really messed up on it at NHK Trophy FS and had +GOE on every other attempt in both the SP/FS. The bigger problem jump is the Loop (and perhaps that is what you meant); he popped the jump at Skate Canada, but got a 3Lo in three out of four competitions (minus GOE at Lombardia; at NHK he added a 1L-3S combo when he missed the lutz combo there).

I think the other thing probably worth noting regarding's Jason inconsistency this season is that Jason has said that the programs themselves are more difficult compared to his past programs. It was probably a huge ask to have Jason do a more difficult program AND integrate a quad.

Adam's programs are beautiful to look at, but if you compare the in-between Adam has a longer set-up into a lot of his jumps. However, that strategy is working for Adam and he is getting better scores, so Jason's downfall may be the ambitious programs. But on the other hand, that's kind of what makes him stand out in a world of multi-quad programs, so I can't blame his team for not letting up in that area.

 

[Tahuu]

Want: Nathan, Adam, Max
Likely: Nathan, Max, Vincent

Jason has no meat in his tech and he would not beat top ladies if skated ladies. He is a skipper on ice and slow as snail. They shouldn’t put him on the world team either despite he argues in the article he’s got three spots in the past.

 

[mrrice]

Want: Nathan, Adam, Max
Likely: Nathan, Max, Vincent

Jason has no meat in his tech and he would not beat top ladies if skated ladies. He is a skipper on ice and slow as snail. They shouldn’t put him on the world team either despite he argues in the article he’s got three spots in the past.

These are my wish and fortunately, they line up with the likely list as well...

Nathan-Max-Adam

 

[andromache]

I think the other thing probably worth noting regarding's Jason inconsistency this season is that Jason has said that the programs themselves are more difficult compared to his past programs. It was probably a huge ask to have Jason do a more difficult program AND integrate a quad.

Adam's programs are beautiful to look at, but if you compare the in-between Adam has a longer set-up into a lot of his jumps. However, that strategy is working for Adam and he is getting better scores, so Jason's downfall may be the ambitious programs. But on the other hand, that's kind of what makes him stand out in a world of multi-quad programs, so I can't blame his team for not letting up in that area.

Jason has much more difficult programs than Adam and better skating skills. But I think Jason's reputation as an artist is more than strong enough that they could dial down the difficulty of his programs in order to make his elements more manageable for him. Jason is still beating Adam on PCS internationally, but his lower TES is negating that PCS advantage, and Adam is beating him.

I just disagree with his team's approach to this season. If you're the guy without the quads and you aren't adjusted enough to your choreography by the GPF to skate (relatively) error free, it might be time to simplify the choreography and focus on the jumps.

That's just my armchair opinion. I've always enjoyed Jason and rooted for him, and I'm disappointed at what I see as the complete lack of technical progress in 4 years. I totally understand that not everyone shares my very subjective opinion.

Adam is no quad wunderkind, but his 3A has become impressively stable for him over the past four years, and he has increased his consistency. Max has gotten a semi-reliable 4T and is upping his TES. Both men have improved as performers/artists, though, granted, certainly not as much as Jason has, at least in terms of skating skills and complex choreography.

(I also just don't want to Adam and Max to have never gone to the Olympics.)

 

[Mrs. P]

Jason has much more difficult programs than Adam and better skating skills. But I think Jason's reputation as an artist is more than strong enough that they could dial down the difficulty of his programs in order to make his elements more manageable for him. Jason is still beating Adam on PCS internationally, but his lower TES is negating that PCS advantage, and Adam is beating him.

I just disagree with his team's approach to this season. If you're the guy without the quads and you aren't adjusted enough to your choreography by the GPF to skate (relatively) error free, it might be time to simplify the choreography and focus on the jumps.

That's just my armchair opinion. I've always enjoyed Jason and rooted for him, and I'm disappointed at what I see as the complete lack of technical progress in 4 years. I totally understand that not everyone shares my very subjective opinion.

Adam is no quad wunderkind, but his 3A has become impressively stable for him over the past four years, and he has increased his consistency. Max has gotten a semi-reliable 4T and is upping his TES. Both men have improved as performers/artists, though, granted, certainly not as much as Jason has, at least in terms of skating skills and complex choreography.

(I also just don't want to Adam and Max to have never gone to the Olympics.)

Jason has always taken a LOOOOONNNGGGG time to master jumps and I get why that is disappointing/frustrating for fans (and honestly he's probably the most frustrated of all given his frankness regarding his quad progress in recent months). And it does seem other jumps do suffer when he's trying to master a harder jump -- when he was in juniors, he was getting edge calls on his lutz all over the pace when he was trying to get the 3A (even when he didn't include the in his programs). We're seeing a similar thing with the 3A now, I think.

He does seem to get the jumps eventually. And his programs eventually do gel after awhile. The question is whether things can come together enough in two weeks for him to secure a spot on the Olympic team and if he gets a spot, he can do enough to make an impressive showing in Korea.

 

[el henry]

I'm daring someone to be like "Oh, nah, I don't really want Nathan to be on the team." LOL. If Nathan did not have a trillion quads and was our hope for medals, I'd be interested to see how many people sincerely want him on the team. I think he'd still be up there, but not on everyone's "want" list.

SnowWhite, I'm counting your first "want" cause "want" is just that -- it disregards things like "citizenship," LOL.

Really? I don't need a dare I give credit where credit is due, he's improved enormously with putting some artistry and performance into his programs, but "want" to see Nathan? Nope. If it were just Nathan named for SOI, I wouldn't be making plans to physically visit the Box Office next week (which is indeed my plan) to scope out seats.

Who do I *want* for the Oly team: nameless skater, Sean Rabbitt, Andrew Torgashev. Maybe Timmy D.

Because I am all about the athleticism and skill required for great spins. But I'm not giving out the medals

 

[TontoK]

I'm daring someone to be like "Oh, nah, I don't really want Nathan to be on the team." LOL. If Nathan did not have a trillion quads and was our hope for medals, I'd be interested to see how many people sincerely want him on the team. I think he'd still be up there, but not on everyone's "want" list.

SnowWhite, I'm counting your first "want" cause "want" is just that -- it disregards things like "citizenship," LOL.

Mrs P, you know I love you, but I've been puzzling out what you meant by this.

I want the best athletes who I think will have the best showing, and who demonstrate their readiness to fight on the Olympic stage with a top 3 finish at Nationals.

I guess I "want" Nathan, Max, and Vincent because I think they'll be the ones.

But, lest anyone be confused, I'm not related to any of these skaters, nor am I loyal beyond their ability to amaze and entertain. If they can't bring it, then someone else will, and I'll root for them to do their best in Korea.

I ain't gonna lay in the floor and cry if any (or all) of my picks don't perform well and don't make the team.

 

[Mrs. P]

Mrs P, you know I love you, but I've been puzzling out what you meant by this.

I want the best athletes who I think will have the best showing, and who demonstrate their readiness to fight on the Olympic stage with a top 3 finish at Nationals.

I guess I "want" Nathan, Max, and Vincent because I think they'll be the ones.

But, lest anyone be confused, I'm not related to any of these skaters, nor am I loyal beyond their ability to amaze and entertain. If they can't bring it, then someone else will, and I'll root for them to do their best in Korea.

I ain't gonna lay in the floor and cry if any (or all) of my picks don't perform well and don't make the team.

Until el henry and declared otherwise, Nathan up to this point had been on EVERY SINGLE PERSON'S want list. Maybe I'm selling Nathan a tad short here, but given the divisive nature of figure skating forums, I find such unanimous results kinda hard to believe. I was just wondering out loud that if Nathan's inclusion on many's people's list is less that they really truly want him on the team or if it's just a subconscious acceptance on the part of everyone -- including me -- that he's going to be on the team. Or if people feel like it's wrong to not "want" him because he is a top contender.

If Nathan had not been as dominant this season or wasn't the U.S. men's only prospect for an individual medal, I just wonder if people's lists "want" lists would be different.

I think in my case, I don't absolutely adore Nathan (though there are aspects of his skating I appreciate), but I don't feel strongly enough about anyone outside the five contenders , other than Ross, who is a sentimental fave for me, to kick Nathan out (though Alexei K. might have a case for me to do so) and I prefer Nathan's overall skating to Adam or Max (though I find things to like about both of them as well). So there's that.

So maybe some are in a similar position as me. Or maybe we are all truly worshiping (openly or secretly) in the Church of N. Chen. (Well except el henry )

While we're at it. Let's update the poll numbers*:


Who people want**
Nathan - 16.5
Max - 13.0
Adam - 8
Jason - 6.5
Vincent - 4.5
Ross -1.5
Alexei - 1.5
Skater not to be named (): 1.5
Sean - 1
Andrew -1

Who people think will get a spot **
Nathan -19
Adam -14.5
Jason - 8.5
Max - 8.5
Vincent - 6.5

* 1 point if they're in a slot; 1/2 point if they're in a group for a single slot
** I gave ice coverage's "to close to call" 0.5 points for everyone on the board at the time she posted.