Wish: Adam, Max, Jason
Why: Adam has worked his butt off this year to come back from a bad injury; he’s quite funny; and I really respect the fact that he’s willing to speak up publicly about controversial stuff. Max also worked his butt off this year, taking a full course load in a tough subject while training and competing at an elite level; and I love the generosity and good sportsmanship he showed in rushing to congratulate Jason and Adam after they gave lights out performances at 2014 Nats and 2016 Worlds, respectively. Jason? Well he’s my favorite skater.
Will (with a lot of caveats): Nathan, Vincent, Adam.
Why: Nathan requires no explanation. Vincent’s base value with a 5-quad FS is super high; after France, he will be anxious to prove himself; and Nats judges generally tend to ignore under rotations and inflate PCS and GOE. Adam is on a mission this season, and as between him, Jason and Max, he’s been the most consistent; his TES is higher than Jason’s, and if USFS is true to form, he will get a lot of plus GOE and high PCS.
Now the caveats:
- Vincent did less well on the GP this season than many people hoped or expected. In fact, he had net negative GOE in all three of his FS, and his highest PCS was about 75. He’s mistake-prone in the SP, forcing him to play catch up in the FS (his total SP score in France was only 66). Still, in China, his 5-quad FS, even with negative GOE, yielded total TES of 102. Last season, at the beginning of the multi quad hysteria (as I like to think of it), he, like Nathan, seemed to be “the future.” Now, he appears to be not quite soup yet - i.e., the “future” either isn’t quite as stellar as it once appeared, or it’s somewhat farther off. If he struggles in the SP, and doesn’t land/rotate 5 quads and/or get the same kind of GOE/PCS he got at Nats last year, he is beatable despite his high base value. If he skates fairly clean, though, he could score about 290 with moderately inflated GOE/PCS - almost impossible to beat for anyone except Nathan. I think it depends on him, and also depends on whether USFS is still convinced - despite his rough season - that he’s “the future” and they want him on the team.
Max: if he attempts a four-quad FS (as outlined by Karne above) and gets something closest to his highest PCS/GOE, he could potentially score in the 280-285 range. Adam, who is likely to receive much higher PCS and GOE than Max, could also score in that range with his current layout if he skates nearly clean (ie, his only error is an < 4Z that he stands up). So it’s really down to which of them are steadier on the day.
The truth is, with generous Nats scoring, Jason could also score in the 280-285 range, even without a quad, if he skates absolutely clean. But he hasn’t skated clean all season, and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to do so here. I’m pessimistic enough to think he’s less likely to do so than Adam, Max, or Vincent. But I will be thrilled if he proves me wrong!
Alex K. is real. He’s giving you all he has and he shows it, when he’s happy, he’s happy, when he’s not happy with a performance, he also shows it. His jumps aren’t pretty (although some are: that 3A:shocked
