2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

[penniavaswen]

Russian skaters? There is only Kolyada there. It was examining steps and transitions not jumps so I don't know where your jump comment came from. It's a detailed analysis I might add. You can a watch video to see if you've not seen their programs. Honestly you don't even need this analysis. It's quite clear watching live who are just doing crossovers and hand raising between jumps.

I was refering to a different article: height/rotation of quads

What I was trying to get across is that their qualitative analysis is suspect, as evidenced by the above article. I admire their quantitative data - but like any data, it's the interpretation in which you can virtually pull any conclusion once you determine that certain variables can be ignored. For instance, upthread it was mentioned that the original article does not speak to the quality of the transitions: I agree on this front, and it's virtually the same issue I have with the rpm/height issue of jumps. The author's end goal is to drum up support for Kolyada, and tug along the other Russian skaters (Samarin/Kovtun) when they can; I get it - it's a sports.ru article so that should be expected.

This speaks more to the heart of the issue with statistical analysis presentations: people believe information presented in graphical form without critical thought, and are much more likely to be analytical when in text. It's easy to look at a graph and say "yeah, looks like XYZ is really 1.5x times better than everyone else!"

I sincerely appreciated the quad article, and spent a fair bit of time tinkering with their data in an excel sheet, and I can pretty much draw any conclusion I would like with that data. If you'd like to do so yourself: Google Doc 3
I'm making no claims here, other than Shoma's knees should probably get life insurance.

 

[MaiKatze]

Woah, 4 Continents just blew away everything I thought was certain, in form of the one and only Boyang Jin. After the GPF was over I predicted a podium with Nathan, Shoma and Javier. Yuzuru is still a huge ? at this point, but one thing is certain he cannot tone down his difficulties too much if he wants that Gold!

So, right now, I still believe Nathan will get the Gold. Javier needs a perfectly clean SP and about 110 points to stay in the running, because his free won't get him there. The SP will be crucial for him. Boyang is on there and Shoma, who is finally getting out of his low. So, right now it is Nathan, Boyang and Shoma for me.

 

[Arriba627]

Russian skaters? There is only Kolyada there. It was examining steps and transitions not jumps so I don't know where your jump comment came from. It's a detailed analysis I might add. You can a watch video to see if you've not seen their programs. Honestly you don't even need this analysis. It's quite clear watching live who are just doing crossovers and hand raising between jumps.

Until those analyses look at body movements (which are a very important part of transitions), I don't pay any attention to them. They're just quantifying stuff to lift up certain skaters and put others down.

ETA -- Hello cyber bully.

 

[Arriba627]

Woah, 4 Continents just blew away everything I thought was certain, in form of the one and only Boyang Jin. After the GPF was over I predicted a podium with Nathan, Shoma and Javier. Yuzuru is still a huge ? at this point, but one thing is certain he cannot tone down his difficulties too much if he wants that Gold!

So, right now, I still believe Nathan will get the Gold. Javier needs a perfectly clean SP and about 110 points to stay in the running, because his free won't get him there. The SP will be crucial for him. Boyang is on there and Shoma, who is finally getting out of his low. So, right now it is Nathan, Boyang and Shoma for me.

It really does put everything in a different light. The only thing that's hard to get a handle on is "Olympic nerves". The pressure there is unlike any other, and it just seems like this is a really tough one to predict. It's pretty tough going up against anyone who has a 4Lz. And then when they throw in a 4F.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

My problem with most of these analyses is that they rarely ever look at the big picture, even if they are very detailed and methodical. Think about the transition analysis, which doesn't speak about quality of execution for example. A skater can do 5 transition elements which are difficult on paper, but if they are rushed or sloppy, can they still be considered superior to just 3-4 which are exquisite and actually done to the music? Same for the jump analysis. Height is just one aspect. What about length? Or difficulty of entry? I often feel that these analyses are done in a way that highlight the strengths of certain skaters to lift them over others, and deliberately neglect weaknesses.

You know what your last sentences can also be read like, if someone wants to give it the same approach you're giving these analysis'? "Meh, that stuff makes me faves look bad, I'll just say it's invalid".
So they "never look at the big picture" - considered there are reasons for that? Like this stuff being a lot of work, or people focusing on stuff that they actually can quantify? Honestly, the complain against the jump height article makes my head hurt. Yes, it focuses on height and excludes ice coverage. It never claims otherwise. And you know why? Because having a method for analyzing height simply doesn't mean they have one for ice coverage. So you're reasoning is "because you don't have a method for measuring ice coverage, you should not make one for the jump height"? That's... weird. I mean, how about you add an analysis of ice coverage then when you want to bring up some actual critic? Or try your hand at your own analysis and quantification of the quality of the top men's transitions? That might actually look like legit criticism & discussion instead of just inventing a narrative against the people who put in actual work, and lay out actual arguments.
Now if someone would take these analysis and use it as something it isn't - claim "look, skater X has the best jump height, he needs to get the most GOE!", then you are completely right in saying this is only one part of GOE, and other factors may change that picture. But I don't see at all how that makes the analysis any less valid, or how it doesn't measure this one characteristic well. Or why it isn't something really cool and interesting to read for many, that took a lot of work which deserves respect. Nobody forces you to read it or completely agree with the following discussion this stuff is brought up in, but just disrespecting the people making it...

 

[HanDomi]

Yuzuru is still a huge ? at this point, but one thing is certain he cannot tone down his difficulties too much if he wants that Gold!

I don't think so. His 2 quads short, 3 quads free combined still leaves in the dust anything others were able to get. He only needs quad sal and toe to win gold, but of course that would be too good to be true to expect him to stick with that

 

[MaiKatze]

I don't think so. His 2 quads short, 3 quads free combined still leaves in the dust anything others were able to get. He only needs quad sal and toe to win gold, but of course that would be too good to be true to expect him to stick with that

The short I agree with. If Yuzuru skates it clean, the only one who could possibly get near that score is Javier Fernandez. In the long, it gets more complicated. 3 Quads, okay, but he has to be perfect and squeaky clean. Fact is, we don't know how his condition is right now, that's why I always put a big question mark behind his name in these predictions. I'm very curious if he'll skate the Team short. Which is in exactly 2 weeks! Then we'll know more. Whatever it is, it has definitely become harder to win the Olympics than it was 4 years ago. There are just too many skaters who have the scores that medal and I don't think we'll see another Sochi-like collapse from all of them.

 

[da96103]

With the conclusion of the last international event before the Olympics, at this juncture:

Most prepared: Nathan Chen, Boyang Jin

Work to be done: Shoma Uno, Javier Fernandez, Mikhail Kolyada

Miracle needed: Patrick Chan

Unknown: Yuzuru Hanyu

 

[da96103]

The short I agree with. If Yuzuru skates it clean, the only one who could possibly get near that score is Javier Fernandez. In the long, it gets more complicated. 3 Quads, okay, but he has to be perfect and squeaky clean. Fact is, we don't know how his condition is right now, that's why I always put a big question mark behind his name in these predictions. I'm very curious if he'll skate the Team short. Which is in exactly 2 weeks! Then we'll know more. Whatever it is, it has definitely become harder to win the Olympics than it was 4 years ago. There are just too many skaters who have the scores that medal and I don't think we'll see another Sochi-like collapse from all of them.

The Olympic Gold Medallist will have to be as clean as the dinner plate of an Asian child. (Because Asian parents like to tell their child if he/she doesn't finish every grain of rice, the future wife/husband will have lots of pimples like the plate with leftover rice.)

 

[rosacotton]

So many quads + Olympic pressure + ice is slippery = anything can happen! This can go down in so many different ways... :hopelessness:

 

[TontoK]

With the conclusion of the last international event before the Olympics, at this juncture:

Most prepared: Nathan Chen, Boyang Jin

Work to be done: Shoma Uno, Javier Fernandez, Mikhail Kolyada

Miracle needed: Patrick Chan

Unknown: Yuzuru Hanyu

I had included Boyang in my mix of potential medalists, really more of a courtesy and placeholder. I really didn't think that with his injuries, he could be a player.

Well, I was wrong. I've also put Hanyu on my list, being considerably doubtful about his prospects, coming off a serious injury. Now, I don't know what to think.

My gut tells me this Olympics will be a changing of the guard, at least at the top of the podium. I thought earlier that it would be Shoma Uno, Olympic Champion.

I'm going to stick with it for now... but the chances of for Nathan and Boyang are getting stronger.

I'm losing faith in Kolyada, and I just don't think Javi has the firepower to hang.

Looking at your list, I can't disagree much.

At least one of those fantastic skaters isn't even going to make the last group for FS. Is that crazy, or what!

 

[Step Sequence4]

Tbh I have this feeling that Javi is gonna pull out the win at olympics with a less difficult layout than most of the others, although we don’t know about Yuzuru still. But then again a clean Shoma or Nathan (although the latter seems to be in much better shape) would likely win.
So in my opinion:

Gold contenders:Javi,Nathan
Silver contenders:Above + Boyang
Bronze Contenders:Above + Dima
Could fit literally anywhere:Yuzuru,Shoma and ..Kolyada(....?)
I love Patrick but I don’t think he has a chance anymore
With EVERYONE clean I think podium would be a mix of Nathan Shoma Yuzu & Javi (Likely the first 3)

 

[Mrs. P]

Who I want on the podium: Boyang, Yuzu and Javi
Who I think will be on a podium: Some mix of Boyang, Shoma, Yuzu, Nathan and Javi. (Yeah total cop out).
I think Mikhail will be a dark horse. I think Patrick is clearly checking out, so he's kind of dark horse-y for me too.

 

[Mussique]

As of right now, I think this a really unpredictable event, and I'd only to dare to say this three points:
1) With how though the field is right now, the champion will need to be as clean as possible. This is not to say "completely clean", specially the sQuad, just not a slapfest in the Free Program.
2) We can expect the OGM to get marks over 300. With Oly inflation if we're very lucky maybe a record?
3) I'd be very surprised if someone who has never broken 300 suddenly does. This, however, can be understandable if they're very young and they have a lot of BV.

Let's take a look at the maximum scores all around. I'm cutting it out at 6-8 skaters because as much as I love Tatsuki Machida remembering that he quitted out of the blue makes me cry.

Combined:
1 Yuzuru Hanyu----330.43---2015–16
2 Shoma Uno----319.84----2017
3 Javier Fernández----314.93----2016
4 Nathan Chen----307.46----2017
5 Jin Boyang----303.58----2017
6 Patrick Chan----295.27----2013
7 Denis Ten----289.46----2015

Short:

1 Yuzuru Hanyu----112.72----2017
2 Javier Fernández----109.05----2017
3 Shoma Uno----104.87----2017
5 Mikhail Kolyada----103.13----2017
6 Patrick Chan----102.13----2017

Long:

1 Yuzuru Hanyu----223.20----2017
2 Javier Fernández----216.41----2016
3 Shoma Uno----214.97----2017
4 Jin Boyang----204.94----2017
5 Nathan Chen----204.34----2017
6 Patrick Chan----203.99----2016
7 Denis Ten----191.85----2015
8 Mikhail Kolyada----185.27----2017

Another thing we'd need to take into account is how the season has been going from them.
Also. Having over 300 points means having a consistent cleanish short+long. I think the scored regarding the long have more importance looking towards Olys.

Personal thoughts on this:

—I think we can expect Javi to score over 100 points in the short, because he has been doing so all season. But as right now, the free is still for him pretty slippery, and he has defined himself as "lacking energy". If he puts a strong free he's medal contender, even gold medal contender...but that's a big if.
—Yuzu is both MIA and the king of comebacks. That's to say, who knows about Yuzu.
—Nathan has been very strong all season, has splendid BV and he's young enough that the records showed before still can be overlooked coming to him.
—If Yuzu is the king of comebacks then I think we can call Boyang safely the Prince of Comebacks™. He's also two times world bronze medalist. I really think he's a guy to look for.
—Shoma has had a somewhat irregular season (/hysterical laugh) but all around he's on a very good position with the juzgues and the balance between PCS and BV.
—Patrick Chan, as much as I love his edges, has been quite off this season. He also lacks in BV compared to the other guys. Maybe Canada can have a team medal, though, and I'd be happy for him if they do.
—I don't really see Kolyada as an underdog. As someone already said, it's very strange to expect him to suddenly score over 300 when he has never done so, and he's got enough senior scores to not be a matter of not having done enough senior competitions. If I had to set an underdog for this competition I'd choose Vincent Zhou before Kolyada, for that very reason, and he has huge BV.

If clean, Yuzu Javi and Shoma will definitely podium before clean Boyang. I'm not sure with Nathan Chen. But the thing is, how does a somewhat clean Javi compare against a clean Boyang or somewhat clean Nathan?

I don't think Boyang and Nathan are the "most prepared", but they have been the strongest coming off the season. Javi has said in some interviews they've got an strategy of "percentages" on how much to give in each competition, so if all the guys do that...

Bonus point!) Olympic pressure+Ice is slippery+A lot of BV/PCS differences between athletes= how can we even try to predict this!?

Rereading this I think this post is the very definition of "how writing a lot can still not say anything at all". Sorry guys, I'm a mess.

 

[Jaana]

It will be exciting to see at the Olympics in which condition Hanyu will be after the injury. Jin really surprised me at 4CC, maybe Hanyu will do that, too? With two clean skates Fernandez could be on the podium, but this moment I don´t see it happening considering his performances at Europeans with soooo little time left until the Olympics. At Worlds he might do well as there is more time to prepare, I think. Hoping though to be wrong about Fernandez regarding the Olympics, LOL.

Kolyada I don´t see as a podium possibility, most likely are (in no particular order) Hanyu, Uno, Chen and Jin, IMO.

 

[Olympic]

IMO, these are the 5 contenders for 3 medals:

Nathan Chen is on the right track and appears to begin peaking at the right time based on his performance at US Nationals, unlike in 2017 when he peaked too early.

Javier Fernandez is doing what he did in 2015 and 2016, also peaking at the right time.

Boyang Jin is also doing the same exact thing he has done the last two times he has medalled at Worlds; crap early season but coming on strong at the end.

Shoma Uno is a little wobbly but not to be counted out

Yuzuru Hanyu - Mystery Man. He will be debuting post-injury and I doubt the average skater could cope, but this is Yuzu, so he is not to be counted out.

Unfortunately, Patrick Chan has not taken off all season and has made comments to the effect that he is hoping to help CAN in the team comp. Interestingly, nothing about his aspirations. I also think Kolyada is way too unstable.

 

[Marin]

Maybe Yuzu will skip the team event on 9th Feb, giving everyone a heart attack. But reappears on 16th for the individual event SP.

I bet on that, He will skip team event .

 

[karakaka]

IMO,

Frontrunners: Have scored 295+ this season, could easily be over 300

1&2. Uno and Chen, in some order. Neither have been anywhere near consistent this season (who has been?). But both have high TES ceilings, and neither has ever had a total meltdown a la Yuzuru/Javier/Patrick. Uno in particular has been very unlucky w/ all the silvers this season, but has 3 of the 4 highest total scores.
3. Jin. People write him off every season b/c of poor early season performance. And he always peaks at the right time. I was blown away by his performances this week, and think he's made huge strides in the PCS department. Could absolutely win if clean and others make one major mistake (as we saw at 4CC!).
-------------------
Medal contenders: Capable of scoring 280-300ish if clean, but with lower likelihood of being clean/nearly-clean compared to the above group

4. Fernandez. Would beat at least Boyang if everyone is clean/nearly-clean; when was the last time Javi had a nearly-clean FS? Probably can't win unless there are major mistakes at the top, but I hope he gets the Oly medal for Spain.
5. Kolyada. When is he going to get it together? If he does, could easily medal, if not, could be looking at a 10th place or lower here. Gets high PCS regardless of technical output. Would take 2 landed quad lutzes or huge meltdowns from other to get gold.
6. Aliev. Europeans was WOW. Absolutely my fave Russian man right now. Obviously there are stamina issues, but the improvement since the early season is remarkable. If he's totally clean, and others make significant mistakes, could absolutely get bronze.
-------------------
Darkhorses: a ceiling in the 270-280 range; which are probably the worst case scenario scores for Uno & Chen

7. Rippon. If he lands his quad lutz. Generally consistent, barring US Nationals.
8. Chan. Lack of tech & motivation (??) has really hurt him this season. Hope he does well b/c I don't think I'll be able to take disaster Dust in the Wind & Hallelujah at the Olympics.
9. Tanaka. Finally broke 90 in the short. Where did that 4T come from? Never quite puts it together, but absolutely capable of big scores.
10. Zhou. Assuming a lenient tech panel. ROTATE YOUR QUADS PLS!!
-------------------
Darkest-horses: Could maybe score 250-270. Would need major, major meltdowns from every top contender to get a medal.

11. Ge. Will likely go clean (no falls/pops/URs in his last 6 competitions, that's impressive). I think he'll have an amazing moment w/ the crowd at the Olympics, at least.
12. Yan. That 3A!!
13. Bychenko. Hope he has a good final Olympics!
14. Ten. I mean, when you look at the track record....
15. Cha. Looked so much better at Nationals. Will have a lot of home-crowd support.
-------------------
Status unknown:

Hanyu. Really hope he's doing OK.

 

[snowflake]

I had included Boyang in my mix of potential medalists, really more of a courtesy and placeholder. I really didn't think that with his injuries, he could be a player.

Well, I was wrong. I've also put Hanyu on my list, being considerably doubtful about his prospects, coming off a serious injury. Now, I don't know what to think.

My gut tells me this Olympics will be a changing of the guard, at least at the top of the podium. I thought earlier that it would be Shoma Uno, Olympic Champion.

I'm going to stick with it for now... but the chances of for Nathan and Boyang are getting stronger.

I'm losing faith in Kolyada, and I just don't think Javi has the firepower to hang.

Looking at your list, I can't disagree much.

At least one of those fantastic skaters isn't even going to make the last group for FS. Is that crazy, or what!

Crazy and exciting! I'm not ready with my want/will list yet

 

[karakaka]

—Nathan has been very strong all season, has splendid BV and he's young enough that the records showed before still can be overlooked coming to him.

—Shoma has had a somewhat irregular season (/hysterical laugh) but all around he's on a very good position with the juzgues and the balance between PCS and BV.

FWIW, in my book, Shoma & Nathan have been equally strong/inconsistent this year haha.

Nathan's scores this season:

275.04 (US International Figure Skating Classic)
293.79 (Rostelecom)
275.88 (Skate America)
286.51 (GPF)

Shoma's scores this season:

319.84 (Lombardia)
301.10 (Skate Canada)
273.32 (France)
286.01 (GPF)
297.94 (4CC)


It's just that Nathan got lucky w/ having weaker competition when he performed poorly (Skate America), and juuuust eeked out wins when the competition was stronger (Rostelecom over Yuzuru, GPF over Shoma... on a time deduction!), so he has better placements. Bombing strategically might be an actual strategy though? IDK.

IMO, if Hanyu isn't back in full form, Shoma and Nathan are definitely the favorites for Oly gold. I would be surprised if anyone else got it... Maybe Boyang (but I'm hoping he gets his Olympic gold in 2022 in Beijing!)