2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

[schizoanalyst]

I think, Nathan Chen, with a clean 5 quad program (actually even with a step-out on a 3A) will win this even if a Hanyu or Javi pulls a 4 quad perfect FS with some combo of 4S, 4T or one 4Lo (if instead we get surprise two quad loops, flip and lutz, another story). Probably that's heresy to say, but that's just my gut.

Olympic judges tend to award the *technical* skater on the night. That's not to say Chen is simply a technical skater, he can be beautiful and he has very nice lines and details (particularly in his marvelous SP when he isn't saving himself so much for the jump-a-thon FS). But, historically, the Olympic judges have eschewed giving it to the higher quality skater and instead tend to give it to the great technician. My conjecture is that they are biased to not letting the subjective artistic elements or elements that the core fans tend to appreciate (like certain transitions) affect the results as strongly during the Olympics because they don't want a lot of confusion from the every-4-years crowd. Before anyone brings up Plushenko vs Lysacek in 2010, recall they basically had the same base value (Plushenko's was 0.1 points higher in the FS, 4.2 points overall) and he barely lost with several jump issues. Also, there was a fair amount of backlash to that decision to give it to Lysacek.

 

[reneerose]

Random thought: wish they would have "honorable mention" medals at the Olympics, so all the veteran skaters could get recognized for beautiful PCS though their TES is not as high as the younger frontrunners, but yeah that would be a slap in the face to veterans who worked hard at quads for the Olympics.... I'm now thinking maybe a Boyang, Nathan, and Shoma Olympic podium if Yuzuru doesn't skate well. My fantasy Pyeongchang Olympic podium is: Javi, Nathan, and Patrick. :luv17:

 

[Olympic]

I am a Nathan fan and think he needs 6 quads to seal the deal. I think it's a climb yet still possible for him to accomplish, but he needs a good TES edge over Fernandez and Hanyu, even if Hanyu has to water down his tech content, he will be formidable.

 

[tureis]

Medal contenders: Capable of scoring 280-300ish if clean, but with lower likelihood of being clean/nearly-clean compared to the above group

4. Fernandez. Would beat at least Boyang if everyone is clean/nearly-clean; when was the last time Javi had a nearly-clean FS? Probably can't win unless there are major mistakes at the top, but I hope he gets the Oly medal for Spain.
5. Kolyada. When is he going to get it together? If he does, could easily medal, if not, could be looking at a 10th place or lower here. Gets high PCS regardless of technical output. Would take 2 landed quad lutzes or huge meltdowns from other to get gold.

Well if Javi goes clean he can potentially score 325+ so well above the 280-300 range. But at this point it does seem less likely that he would skate two clean programs than Nathan, Shoma and Boyang. His FS is a question mark, even if on an upward trajectory at least.

Looking at where Kolyada is now, he would need some major propping up by the judges to make it into the top 5-6. The guy had zero of his quads working as of Europeans. How likely is that to change in a significant way until the Olympics?

 

[karakaka]

Well if Javi goes clean he can potentially score 325+ so well above the 280-300 range. But at this point it does seem less likely that he would skate two clean programs than Nathan, Shoma and Boyang. His FS is a question mark, even if on an upward trajectory at least.

Looking at where Kolyada is now, he would need some major propping up by the judges to make it into the top 5-6. The guy had zero of his quads working as of Europeans. How likely is that to change in a significant way until the Olympics?

Mm, Javi is definitely a big step above Kolyada, as we saw at Euros. Of course he would be above 300 if clean, by a significant margin, but I think he’ll be 280-300 unless big improvements are made between now and the olympics. I thinks he’s fair less likely than one of Shoma/Nathan/Boyang to get gold.

Euros was awful, but Kolyada came very close to beating Chen and Uno at GPF this year. He scored 282, with 3 falls and a pop across his programs. If he scores around there, that could easily be 5-6. If he duplicates his Euros performance, he could easily be 10th or lower.

 

[brens78]

I’m hoping Javi can pull off a Boston like performance

 

[Rissa]

I think, Nathan Chen, with a clean 5 quad program (actually even with a step-out on a 3A) will win this even if a Hanyu or Javi pulls a 4 quad perfect FS with some combo of 4S, 4T or one 4Lo (if instead we get surprise two quad loops, flip and lutz, another story). Probably that's heresy to say, but that's just my gut.

Olympic judges tend to award the *technical* skater on the night. That's not to say Chen is simply a technical skater, he can be beautiful and he has very nice lines and details (particularly in his marvelous SP when he isn't saving himself so much for the jump-a-thon FS). But, historically, the Olympic judges have eschewed giving it to the higher quality skater and instead tend to give it to the great technician. My conjecture is that they are biased to not letting the subjective artistic elements or elements that the core fans tend to appreciate (like certain transitions) affect the results as strongly during the Olympics because they don't want a lot of confusion from the every-4-years crowd. Before anyone brings up Plushenko vs Lysacek in 2010, recall they basically had the same base value (Plushenko's was 0.1 points higher in the FS, 4.2 points overall) and he barely lost with several jump issues. Also, there was a fair amount of backlash to that decision to give it to Lysacek.

Intersting reasoning, but one flaw is that a clean Hanyu is absolute master not only of PCS but also of technical aspect, the GOEs. I agree that if Nathan goes clean, judges will throw scores at him, but so will they at Hanyu if he goes clean, and much more. If you look at Nathan's 5 quad skate from Nationals and add even 10 points extra for the axel he missed, that score still will come short of what Hanyu got in his last clean 4 quad skate. I seriously doubt that international judges, Olympic fervor accounted for, will top domestic judges. A clean Nathan might top a clean 4-quad Javi because Javi won't be able to do a second 3A, and Javi is not quite as efficient as Hanyu at collecting GOEs. However, a clean Javi will also benefit enormously from the Olympic inflation, being the only European gold contender, so who knows how overboard judges might go with him.

Regarding the subjective artistic impressions being confusing for a every-4-year watchers: judges have never cared for that. Last Olympics Hanyu won despite falling twice, over Chan who didn't fall. I bet every casual just-Olympics watcher was confused. Plus, if the guys go clean, a casual once-every-4-year-watcher won't notice the difference in technical content, and judges probably know that. And, as nice as Nathan's FS is if clean, Javi's and Hanyu's are way nicer (unless one is looking through American-tinted glasses, of course) so casual viewers would be more confused if Nathan won over clean Javi/Hanyu than vice-versa (and Shoma too; as much as I find his current incarnation of Turandot lacking, I think it's more appealing to casual viewers than Nathan's FS).

I think the point is moot, however, because they're unlikely to go clean. It's nice to imagine a perfect world, though, lol.

 

[fireovertheice]

Hi all!

I post here the link to a new video about 1-foot skating and more in general TR in the top men SP (first part of the season). I think that there are some interesting data and nice charts to look at: https://youtu.be/wNKwfeuGUN8

We will see what they will be able to do in their SP at Oly.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Hi all!

I post here the link to a new video about 1-foot skating and more in general TR in the top men SP (first part of the season). I think that there are some interesting data and nice charts to look at: https://youtu.be/wNKwfeuGUN8

We will see what they will be able to do in their SP at Oly.

That was interesting. Thanks!

 

[MaiKatze]

Regarding the subjective artistic impressions being confusing for a every-4-year watchers: judges have never cared for that. Last Olympics Hanyu won despite falling twice, over Chan who didn't fall. I bet every casual just-Olympics watcher was confused.

I'm not so sure. I rewatched the Sochi competition recently, and while it IS true, Patrick Chan didn't fall, the mistakes he made were plenty, he was shaky on most jumps and that was visible even to the most casual watcher. I think most people understood the reasoning here, because while Yuzuru fell, the other jump landings were super high quality. If you go down that road, neither Patrick or Yuzuru should have won Sochi. The most confusing is, when someone zayaks or underrotates jumps, because THAT is something the casual watcher doesn't understand at all.

I just hope we get a fair audience who will cheer on everyone equally. The atmosphere in Sochi was so weird, it was almost silent at points.

 

[bobbob]

If everyone goes CLEAN:
Yuzu 115 + 225 = 340 (4 quad)
Javi 111 + 217 = 328 (3 quad)
Shoma 108 + 220 = 328 (4 quad)
Nathan 107 + 220 = 327 (5 quad)
Boyang 102 + 208 = 310 (4 quad)
--
(will probably not go clean but...)
Patrick 103 + 213 = 316 (3 quad...is he going for 3 quads?)

Now the probability for going clean is a whole different story. I would say Boyang has the highest, Nathan too, maybe with some sloppy errors. Yuzu is hit or miss but when he is ON he will go clean and be amazing. Shoma and Javi may go clean, though the chances don't seem to be the best. Patrick's chances are low.

 

[charlotte14]

Hi all!

I post here the link to a new video about 1-foot skating and more in general TR in the top men SP (first part of the season). I think that there are some interesting data and nice charts to look at: https://youtu.be/wNKwfeuGUN8

We will see what they will be able to do in their SP at Oly.

Javier is the most overscored in TR.

 

[Roast Toast]

Javier is the most overscored in TR.

Meh. At least Javi has actual steps going into his solo quad.

 

[Florian]

As mostly, there are numerous prognoses and analyses and in the end it will just be about the form on the day and probably about who survives the splatfest best. There are five skaters who can win it and one of them will. That's the only safe thing to say in my opinion. As for the podium I would not rule out Chan completely, but it's improbable. So we have five skaters fighting for the title and six skaters fighting for the podium. I don't believe Kolyada can make it. For me the big question is if only one of the contenders manages to skate clean in both programs. I doubt it. But this guy would surely win.

In the end, it's about the nerves. There has never been so much pressure because it's an insane technical level. Fernández has pressure because he wants this Olympic medal for Spain badly. Chen has pressure because he's the jumping genius everybody expects to do the impossible and Americans expect him to win of course. Hanyu has a bit pressure because he somehow has to defend his title. But on the other hand he has less pressure because people don't know what he is able to do at the moment. And Japanese still have Uno, who causes most pressure himself I would say. Chan would like to medal of course, but since it's highly improbable, there is not so much pressure on him. Jin has some pressure now because of his 4CC title. He has proven to have good nerves already at worlds though.

I can't even say what my dream podium would be. I wish a medal to Javi whom I've been following since his first Euros. I like Nathan and Boyang. Yuzu already has his gold medal. So probably I would prefer these three.

 

[frallik]

Yuzu - SP 4Lz, 4+1+4, 3A= TE 70, FS 4Lz, 4+1+4, 4S, 4+3, 4Toe, 4F, 3A, 3A+3= TE 150+

 

[Jaycoolza]

Yuzu - SP 4Lz, 4+1+4, 3A= TE 70, FS 4Lz, 4+1+4, 4S, 4+3, 4Toe, 4F, 3A, 3A+3= TE 150+

is it for real?

 

[charlotte14]

Meh. At least Javi has actual steps going into his solo quad.

Still very much overscore. Many times he did not deserve level 3 (let alone level 4) and they still marked level 4 for him.

 

[Rissa]

is it for real?

You mean does Hanyu realy plan to do a three jump combination in SP, consisting of two quads?

Sure, it's not like this is against the rules.

 

[xeyra]

You mean does Hanyu realy plan to do a three jump combination in SP, consisting of two quads?

Sure, it's not like this is against the rules.

Or that FS layout a Zayak of epic proportions.

Also, 4F, LOL.

 

[karne]

Yuzu - SP 4Lz, 4+1+4, 3A= TE 70, FS 4Lz, 4+1+4, 4S, 4+3, 4Toe, 4F, 3A, 3A+3= TE 150+

Ha ha, no. Whoever told you this was happening is yanking your chain.