Raf’s side of the story doesn’t sit right with me… not saying that it’s factually wrong, there might well be a lot of truth to it, but honestly, his conclusions don’t ring entirely true to me.
There are quite a few assumptions and on the whole it sounds a bit like he came up with these explanations and made himself believe in them, so that he can feel good about himself and doesn’t look bad…? (I know, this is very kitchen sink psychology 101…

)
Especially, since Raf doesn’t take any kind of responsibility for what happened, at any point.
He says he knew Nathan would fail with his planned SP layout because it was too ambitious given the circumstances (injury, amount of training, familiarity with the layout…) and then Nathan supposedly proved him right.
But then why allow Nathan to go for a 6 quad layout in the FS, a mere day later? Which he succeeded at, including those quads, that Raf deemed too difficult a day earlier.
Also notice, in the interview Raf conveniently doesn’t offer an explanation how that was suddenly possible, when just 24 hours earlier he was pointing out a lack of training/preparation etc… those things didn’t change in the course of a day…
(I get that it’s more risky to do certain elements in the SP because of certain requirements and because each mistake weighs more heavily, because there’s fewer elements overall… but still, doesn’t explain why Nathan would be able to execute almost all quads successfully one day later).
Many people were commenting on how anxious Nathan appeared before the SP, and apparently they were right on the money. So if some FS fans were getting these vibes through their TV screen, surely Raf would also pick up on Nathan’s nervous energy and body language, at the very least subconsciously. So naturally he „felt“ that Nathan would fail.
(Obviously the short-term change in layout and then, making it even worse, a desperate change mid-program from 4F to 4T were big mistakes. But as I already mentioned, I see this as a homemade problem that Raf himself is also guilty of. Also, one could argue that the 4Lz3T - 4F - 3A layout is pretty familiar to Nathan, given that he’s done it so many times this season… which I assume is also part of why Nathan must have felt that it’s a realistic, doable layout.)
We don’t know why Nathan felt pressured to go for a risky program, be it the expectations of his family, media or his own, but does it really matter in that moment? The result is the same… I’m still convinced that the main problem during the SP was nerves/pressure, last-minute layout changes are just a symptom of this.
I’m much more interested in how his environment, especially Raf as his coach, being the one person face to face with him in those situations, react to this. At that competitive level, wouldn’t they have strategies or rituals in place to deal with this? Looking in from the outside, it doesn’t look like Raf/his team prepared for this. A familar jump layout is obviously one big building block to establish the needed confidence, but I’m also thinking of care and support on site during competiton. Seems like Raf doesn't recognize this as a problem, even though quads are so much about mental focus and timing...?