Which man will win (and medal) at Worlds?

[narcissa]

IDK. If you extrapolate based on previous performance, and included very mild Olympic inflation (I think it would've been more than I've allotted), a clean Chen (with 4Lz/4F instead as he should've been doing all along) at Olympics would've probably put up around 106-107 in the SP and then 215 in LP. That's 321-322 points. That would've easily won. And Hanyu's only done that 3 times. If instead his LP was clean - with the benefit of being in the late group - he probably would've put up around 221-223. That's 327-330. Hanyu had done that precisely once, and hadn't come close since 2015. I'm also being somewhat conservative on the likely PCS and GOE inflation.

So, yeah, Hanyu would've had a lot of trouble if Nathan would've been clean (we can debate if these scores are fair, but it is what it is). And probably would've lost no matter what he did since Olympic judges like to award technical skates generically.

I'm confused. You say that the gold is clearly Nathan's to win because he could've scored 327-330 which would have easily won because Hanyu's only done that precisely one time?

Except Nathan has done that precisely zero times? Even if you tried to cherry pick his SP and FS from different competitions? How does that prove anything? And why is Nathan the only one who would benefit from "mild Olympic inflation"?

 

[Old Cat Lady]

The OGM was Nathan's to lose. His LP score proved that. Yuzuru is, overall, a much better skater but he simply can't make up the points with GOE and PCS without mistakes from Nathan.

Are we really still playing the if and but game based on hypothetical clean skates at the Olympics? The closest way to proving this either way is with statistics.

Highest score with Chopin: 112.72
Highest score with Semei (with only 3 quads as opposed to the 4 he performed at the Olympics): 219.48
hypothetical total: 332.2 (+2 for 4th quad instead of axel = 334.2)

Highest score with Nemesis: 104.12
Highest score with Mao's Last Dancer: 219.46
hypothetical total: 323.58 (+2-3 GOE if he didn't step out of the flip = 325.58 to 326.58)

Yuzuru's highest free skate score: 223.2
Nathan's highest free skate score: 219.46

Yuzuru's 3 highest total scores: 321.59 (4 quads in long, major error in short), 330.43 (only 3 quads in long), 322.40 (only 3 quads in long)
Nathan's highest total score: 321.4 (6 quads in long)

Yuzuru's Actual Olympic short program score (111.68) + past high Semei score = 331.16
Nathan's highest short program score + actual Olympic free skate score (215.08) = 319.2

As far as who was more hyped, based on rewatching the Olympics on Canadian and American broadcasts from youtube and the few articles I googled, Patrick Chan was still considered the favorite going into Sochi (5 of 6 articles I saw predicted Chan first)- it was definitely treated like Chan's Olympics to lose. I rewatched the 2013 GPF and thought, why in the world was it a surprise that Hanyu won the Olympics? Whereas, heading into Pyeongchang, I read titles like "How Nathan Chen dominates figure skating" and didn't even hear the other competitors names until the actual broadcast (though I wasn't following the sport going into the Olympics and don't watch regular TV). Predictions were more of a mixed bag this year but the majority seemed to either pick Chen or not make predictions but featured him.

 

[yume]

The OGM was Nathan's to lose. His LP score proved that. Yuzuru is, overall, a much better skater but he simply can't make up the points with GOE and PCS without mistakes from Nathan.

LOL in what world?
Yuzuru beat Chen free skate score with only 3 quads wich are Salchows and toe loop.

 

[Danibellerika]

Nathan's hype, on the other hand, made him look like a skating God. While discounting the current World champion, former World champion, silver medalist and 2X bronze medalist. Quite hilarious all the superlatives the US media used.
Casual viewers would think Yuzuru, Javier, Shoma & Boyang didnt exist, lol.

This. I nabbed a premium seat for the Men's SPs which put me in the media section right behind the judges. There were these american journalists in front of me. They had no idea who Hanyu was. They had no idea why I had a Pooh bear and was wearing yellow ears. Hearing "who is Yuzuru Hanyu?" with the rink and Olympic rings right there in front of me was a :shocked::shocked::shocked: kind of moment. Of course, soon they would learn who he is and they'll never forget it, especially since they were busy capturing the Pooh rain on their phones in wonder. But yeah, I was a bit irritated that they got such good seats while some who actually know the sport and the rest of the contenders had to settle for worse. And as journalists I expected them to have done a little bit of research to know who could possibly round out the podium. It really wouldn't have taken much. Nathan is quite talented and I like him and I would have been pleased with a podium finish for him, but the actual podium really wasn't much of a surprise considering it consisted of world medalists and world champions over this past quad.

LOL in what world?
Yuzuru beat Chen free skate score with only 3 quads wich are Salchows and toe loop.

And it was only *two* toes and a sal at that time which is still the second 2nd highest score behind his helsinki free.

 

[Kelly]

I don't understand why many people take Nathan's media hype so offensively when the hype is only in the US.
Casual viewers think Yuzuru, Javier, Shoma, and Boyang don't exist, so what? The casual viewers don't know any of them before the Olympics.
But maybe because of the media hype (again in US), they watched figure skating, some of them would become fans or be more interested in this sport.
Most likely, they remain as casual viewers and come back to watch figure skating in 4 years, 2022 Beijing.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

The OGM was Nathan's to lose. His LP score proved that. Yuzuru is, overall, a much better skater but he simply can't make up the points with GOE and PCS without mistakes from Nathan.

I'm sorry but how can anyone even write that? Obviously Yuzu can make those points up, otherwise his PBs wouldn't be higher then Nathans. End of it. No discussion necessary, just look at facts

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Are we really still playing the if and but game based on hypothetical clean skates at the Olympics? The closest way to proving this either way is with statistics.

If Nathan makes no mistakes, he will win. It's hypothetical, but if everyone skates clean who do you think would win? Whoever would win must make mistakes for anyone else to win. Basic logic.

 

[charlotte14]

If Nathan makes no mistakes, he will win. It's hypothetical, but if everyone skates clean who do you think would win? Whoever would win must make mistakes for anyone else to win. Basic logic.

Basic logic is if everyone skated well, the guy with current world records would win.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Basic logic is if everyone skated well, the guy with current world records would win.

well != clean

Is your argument that if Yuzuru is clean then a perfect Nathan cannot beat him?

 

[Old Cat Lady]

If Nathan makes no mistakes, he will win. It's hypothetical, but if everyone skates clean who do you think would win? Whoever would win must make mistakes for anyone else to win. Basic logic.

:hopelessness: The overwhelming amount of statistical evidence that you clipped from my post makes it very obvious who I think would win with no mistakes.

- - - Updated - - -

well != clean

Is your argument that if Yuzuru is clean then a perfect Nathan cannot beat him?

Yes

 

[charlotte14]

well != clean

Is your argument that if Yuzuru is clean then a perfect Nathan cannot beat him?

Clean Hanyu back to back: 330
Clean Nathan back to back: 321
Logic? It’s just math.

 

[shine]

I don't understand why many people take Nathan's media hype so offensively when the hype is only in the US.
Casual viewers think Yuzuru, Javier, Shoma, and Boyang don't exit, so what? The casual viewers don't know any of them before the Olympics.
But maybe because of the media hype (again in US), they watched figure skating, some of them would become fans or be more interested in this sport.
Most likely, they remain as casual viewers and come back to watch figure skating in 4 years, 2022 Beijing.

This. And all the other countries’ media can also hype their own skaters to the sky and it would be their choice and I would have no problem with it. The US media does what ever to generate viewership for itself. I didn’t like their hype on Nathan out of personal reasons but they also are not obligated to hype each skater equally.

 

[Old Cat Lady]

I don't get what's so hard to understand here - the system is pretty straightforward.

Even with the most egregious PCS/GOE inflation I've ever seen, Nathan only totals 323.58 between his 2 best scores. He lost, at most, 6 points on GOE between those 2 skates. Let's be generous and add another 2 points to his already generous PCS with the thought that the judges "might" score him higher on the second mark. His total is still only 331.58.

Yuzuru's 2 best scores total 335.92 with only 4 quads in the long. His original 2018 layout had 5 quads in the long instead of 4 and Nathan would likely have gotten lower PCS scores if Yuzuru were in the same competition. So yes, a clean Yuzuru easily beats a clean Nathan.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

To be clear, I would have a clean Yuzuru over a clean Nathan; I don't think they are nearly as close in PCS measures as they're marked. However, I've seen enough skating to know the judges are crazy enough to be wowed by young, technically gifted skaters and shower them with winning marks. From that perspective, I think Nathan's hypothetical score ceiling is higher, not that it should be so.

 

[oatmella]

I am a Nathan fan and personally wished he hadn’t been hyped so much by NBC, etc.
NBC did feature Yuzu - obviously not as much as Nathan, but he certainly wasn’t ignored! And if ‘journalists’ show up to OG men’s figure skating and haven’t heard of him - smh. NBC did mostly ignore Shoma, Boyang - but I do remember a puff piece on Javi.

 

[narcissa]

I don't understand why many people take Nathan's media hype so offensively when the hype is only in the US.
Casual viewers think Yuzuru, Javier, Shoma, and Boyang don't exist, so what? The casual viewers don't know any of them before the Olympics.
But maybe because of the media hype (again in US), they watched figure skating, some of them would become fans or be more interested in this sport.
Most likely, they remain as casual viewers and come back to watch figure skating in 4 years, 2022 Beijing.

Well, I am from the US, so it does annoy me how much misinformation people directly around me get from the media. They basically think Nathan is Yuzu and has been dominating the sport for the last couple of years, and when I tell them there is a Japanese skater who has all the records and is actually a favorite to win, they get really confused. Many of them thought that Nathan's score at the Olympics was a world record, and when they're told otherwise, they can't comprehend it because he landed the most quads so how could anyone score higher? Anyway, I don't mind casual fans at all, but it does get a bit annoying when the casual fans are not just ignorant, but have outright misconceptions that are hard for them to reconcile with reality because they were introduced to the sport in such a biased way.

 

[charlotte14]

To be clear, I would have a clean Yuzuru over a clean Nathan; I don't think they are nearly as close in PCS measures as they're marked. However, I've seen enough skating to know the judges are crazy enough to be wowed by young, technically gifted skaters and shower them with winning marks. From that perspective, I think Nathan's hypothetical score ceiling is higher, not that it should be so.

Well at WC, Nathan was scored much higher than it should be, inflation didn’t stop and he got 321 and we know it’s still below 330.

 

[eaglehelang]

I don't understand why many people take Nathan's media hype so offensively when the hype is only in the US.
Casual viewers think Yuzuru, Javier, Shoma, and Boyang don't exist, so what? The casual viewers don't know any of them before the Olympics.
But maybe because of the media hype (again in US), they watched figure skating, some of them would become fans or be more interested in this sport.
Most likely, they remain as casual viewers and come back to watch figure skating in 4 years, 2022 Beijing.

Because it is these type of fans/media that come with statements the OG Gold is Nathan's Gold to lose or Nathan gifted the OG Gold to Yuzuru(Olympic threads).

And we have to Constantly and repeatedly hear that for the next 4 years, ever since the Olympics ended.

 

[shine]

Because it is these type of fans/media that come with statements the OG Gold is Nathan's Gold to lose or Nathan gifted the OG Gold to Yuzuru(Olympic threads).

And we have to Constantly and repeatedly hear that for the next 4 years, ever since the Olympics ended.

And I have to constantly deal with skaters who I consider mediocre artistically getting PCS near 100 in figure skating. So what's your point? The world doesn't always revolve around what WE want. And at least media hype doesn't actually translate into real scores.

 

[eaglehelang]

And I have to constantly deal with skaters who I consider not that great artsitcally getting PCS near 100 in figure skating. So what's your point? The world doesn't always revolve around what WE want. And at least media hype doesn't actually translate into real scores.

In the 1st place, my discussion with Jenaj was comparison on Nathan media hype at 2018 OG vs Yuzuru media hype at 2014 OG in their OG Gold challenge.
My original pt in that post before Worlds (which Jenaj replied to )was that overhype added more pressure to Nathan at OG. Jenaj was insisting Yuzuru was also hyped a lot as Gold contender in 2014.

Oh, Media hype does translate into real scores. Case in point Nathan's 91 pts PCS at Worlds.Before Nathan fans jump on that(again), do a video detailing each transition , etc that would justify the 91 pts PCS. One has already been done by Yuzuru fans on Yuzuru's 2017 Worlds and 2018 OG LP

Someone on twitter also made a jumps and spins GOE comparision Nathan 2018 Worlds LP vs Yuzuru's 2017 Worlds LP.