2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[Spirals for Miles]

I thought she did 3F-3Lo, not 3Lz-3Lo?
I like watching her skate, she's expressive and has good jumps. But something's missing -- not sure what, though. And it's costing her placements and slots.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

^Ignore this next post

Anastasia can do 3lo-3lo and 3z-3lo as recently as January but she doesn’t do them in competition and I doubt anyone at CSKA will push her in that direction.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bdm4AILj8Sb/

That’s what I like

 

[TruMan]

Regarding Shelepen and Lipnitskaya - it looks like Tutberidze "cloning" process is started.
These girls know what it's like to be a successful coach.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

Oh I agree 100% that after test skates Shcherbakova shoot right up the ranking and Vasilieva will probably drop a couple of places. I was simply talking about their positions going into the test skates....unfortunately Shcherbakova didn't have a good season (understandably). Like I mentioned in my clarification I do think Shcherbakova is a much better skater than Vasilieva (even without quads) and of course with quads she will skip most of the queue for JGP spots.

Honestly I think after test skates then the ranking will be;
1. Trusova
2. Kostornaya/Shcherbakova (Shcherbakova with a quad/quad combo is above Kostornaya, without quads I would put her just below)
4. Tarusina (I vaguely recall rumours about a quad toe)
5. Kanysheva
6. Sinitsyna/Kostyuk/Vasilieva - Sisnitsyna is disadvantaged potentially by the fact that both Kostyuk and Vasilieva are 2nd year seniors but she does have more difficult jumps - I would argue that having pushed Vasilieva out of the way last year they might be more inclined to give her something this year (it also helps breaks up the Eteri/Panova domination)
10. Chistyakova - I agree her nationals team placement seems premature given results but it does tell me that someone in the Fed is interested in promoting her (which is always a help when it comes to being assigned JGP spots)

I haven't ranked Tarakanova because I have no idea what she's doing at the moment/how her preparation for test skates is going. If healthy/at the level of last season I would probably rank her as equal with a quadless Shcherbakova. Even if she had regressed I wouldn't put her much below Vasilieva/Sinitsyna/Kostyuk once politicking and past results come into play.

Since we are back on the topic of juniors, I think I will have to disagree that Vasilieva is ahead of Shcherbakova despite Shcherbakova's mishaps at nationals and Elders. A 6th place finish at nationals and then nothing else isn't really "standing out" to me. Anna won the Cup Final and I believe was the only person to beat Trusova last year. She did qualify for Elders, and though the performance was a disaster, managed 5th place. And she is capable of two different kinds of quads. I'd have Shcherbakova slightly ahead with the ultimate decision at test skates. I believe that if both Shcherbakova and Vasilieva perform well they will give the nod to Shcherbakova on the basis of PCS even if she doesn't demonstrate a clean quad. Vasilieva I think would need a disaster from Shcherbakova to overtake her, which is certainly possible.

Really I think it is very close between Shcherbakova, Kanysheva, Sinitsyna, and Vasilieva for the final 2 spots, with Vasilieva needing the most help from the others in order to prevail as she just barely beat Kanysheva and Sinitsyna at nationals and they went on to medal at Elders. If something god forbid happens to Tarakanova and/or Gubanova moves up, maybe 3 or even all of them will get there.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Tarakanova also beat Trusova this year, at one of the Russian cups between the JGPs and the JGPF
And I don't think Shcherbakova is fighting Kanysheva/Sinitsyna/Vasilieva for a spot. I think she will have one based on 1. her quads 2. her cup final performance 3. her potential, and then the others will fight for the remaining one (maybe two depending on Tarusina)

 

[moriel]

I am not so sure about shcherbakova now
at her DOI skates, her jumps seem tiny, making me doubt she will be able to jump any quads in competition this season and also expect her to get pretty meh GOEs for them.

 

[Shayuki]

I am not so sure about shcherbakova now
at her DOI skates, her jumps seem tiny, making me doubt she will be able to jump any quads in competition this season and also expect her to get pretty meh GOEs for them.

But her jumps have always been tiny. Actually, in there they're not even as tiny as they were during early spring. The 3Lutz she did in the opening was as big as any(Her actual ex ones were smaller). April 19 she struggles with rotating 3Lutz with low air time, April 27 she jumps quad Lutz with amazing air time. It's probably best to not try to make sense of it.

She also pre-rotated a lot more than usual during the ex. My guess is that smaller jumps with more pre-rotation makes them more consistent, which is what's most important during an ex. She's not scored there, after all.

 

[leoleo]

Yeah Anna in all the performances i've seen of her has always had small jumps so they didn't look smaller than usual in her DOI performance.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

I agree that Gubanova is unlikely to stay junior given she has a good shot at the host spot (I think she will get it unless Samodurova somehow manages to medal at Skate America).

At this point I am wondering whether Gubanova would be better off competing in the JGP and getting two assignments, possibly winning one or both, then making the JGPF and contending for bronze rather than competing as a senior and only getting the host spot with a long shot at the podium.

Just because she competes junior on the grand prix doesn't mean she can't still contend for senior worlds. She is age eligible. She could pull a Konstantinova and get both junior and senior worlds after competing on the JGP. Could competing on the JGP rather than senior put her in a better position for this? I don't know, a lot of good the host spot did for Mikhailova last year.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I don’t think Gubanova has chances to win “one or both” with the current level of talent around...

 

[moriel]

But her jumps have always been tiny. Actually, in there they're not even as tiny as they were during early spring. The 3Lutz she did in the opening was as big as any(Her actual ex ones were smaller). April 19 she struggles with rotating 3Lutz with low air time, April 27 she jumps quad Lutz with amazing air time. It's probably best to not try to make sense of it.

She also pre-rotated a lot more than usual during the ex. My guess is that smaller jumps with more pre-rotation makes them more consistent, which is what's most important during an ex. She's not scored there, after all.

I think they used to be kinda bigger =(
But yeah, if she managed to land quads with this technique its all good. If she does just triples, probably some need to work on height and distance to hoard GOEs.

 

[Shayuki]

I think they used to be kinda bigger =(
But yeah, if she managed to land quads with this technique its all good. If she does just triples, probably some need to work on height and distance to hoard GOEs.

They were bigger during April competitions, yeah. But they were smaller during January and February.

Still, I don't think they should really be judged until actual competitions. Not to mention, that televised ex apparently was her weakest performance of the weekend(by a significant margin).

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

I don’t think Gubanova has chances to win “one or both” with the current level of talent around...

Oh I think she could beat anyone who falters enough, essentially everyone but Trusova and Kostornaia. She beat all of the rest between senior and junior nationals this year and can do it again I'm sure. Assuming both she and the other Russian girl are clean, I think she has the upper hand over Trusina, Sinitsyna, and Kanysheva. So it really depends on who she's assigned against, but I see a good chance for her to win one.

 

[alvina9894]

But her jumps have always been tiny. Actually, in there they're not even as tiny as they were during early spring. The 3Lutz she did in the opening was as big as any(Her actual ex ones were smaller). April 19 she struggles with rotating 3Lutz with low air time, April 27 she jumps quad Lutz with amazing air time. It's probably best to not try to make sense of it.

She also pre-rotated a lot more than usual during the ex. My guess is that smaller jumps with more pre-rotation makes them more consistent, which is what's most important during an ex. She's not scored there, after all.

Jumping in a program is very different from jumping a solo jump pass in practice. She would need a lot of conditioning in order to put a quad into her programme without compromising the quality of other elements. Look at Trusova's FS in Jr Worlds. The two quads there were undoubtedly amazing, but the rest of the programme were less impressive than what she demonstrated earlier in the season.

 

[Shayuki]

Jumping in a program is very different from jumping a solo jump pass in practice. She would need a lot of conditioning in order to put a quad into her programme without compromising the quality of other elements. Look at Trusova's FS in Jr Worlds. The two quads there were undoubtedly amazing, but the rest of the programme were less impressive than what she demonstrated earlier in the season.

That's one of the few times Trusova did the rest of the program without falling at the start, I don't think that it was worse for that reason. Perhaps due to her being unable to concentrate as well. Technically, it was really good even past that point. Reminder that she struggled several times that season with the latter jumping content.

And jumping a solo jump at the start of the program is pretty similar to jumping one solo in practice... As for the conditioning, she was jumping like 30 triples in practice during 5 minute fs practice last season, I doubt that's an issue.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Oh I think she could beat anyone who falters enough, essentially everyone but Trusova and Kostornaia. She beat all of the rest between senior and junior nationals this year and can do it again I'm sure. Assuming both she and the other Russian girl are clean, I think she has the upper hand over Trusina, Sinitsyna, and Kanysheva. So it really depends on who she's assigned against, but I see a good chance for her to win one.

Really? Her jump technique has gotten wonkier so we don't know what will happen with them this year. I think Tarusina should have the upper hand due to her better, more consistent jumps, and faster skating (she also has good skating skills). If clean, I would think that Tarakanova would come out on top as well, plus Shcherbakova if she's clean.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Her jump technique has gotten wonkier so we don't know what will happen with them this year..

When did it get wonkier exactly? She had her best season in terms of jump consistency last year and I haven’t seen any footage from this season. Plus she has Tat and all that CSKA backing now. You’re painting a picture like she is constantly getting worse with every day. It doesn’t add up really.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Consistency? Yes.
But look at this swing-y technique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UfI--hJ0_Q especially at 1:43 going into the 3F-3T. Just... the way she has to swing her arms so much just to be able to do the jump would seem like she doesn't have either rotation speed or height alone. And that is definitely not a good thing.

Plus, will TAT and CKSA help her outside of Russia?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Consistency? Yes.
But look at this swing-y technique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UfI--hJ0_Q especially at 1:43 going into the 3F-3T. Just... the way she has to swing her arms so much just to be able to do the jump would seem like she doesn't have either rotation speed or height alone. And that is definitely not a good thing.

Plus, will TAT and CKSA help her outside of Russia?

I thought her jumps looked great and the 3z rippon was extra nice. :scratch3:

 

[Spirals for Miles]

The 3Lz was nice to me but I'm just... concerned about all that arm-swing action. It's definitely gotten worse, imo.