2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[Shayuki]

If Zagitova was known four years ago, she would have other top starts to fight with. Tsurskaya as well as the four Proklova/Sotskova/Sakhanovich/Medvedeva. However, how things turned out, all those very promising superstarts did not work out. So my point remains. The golden girl for the next Olympics is still unknown and currently probably shows only average or even uneraverage results.

Did any of these girls perform quads or 3As? No? Did Eteri have 3 2002s in her training before she took Zagitova in? No? Again, what Zagitova was able to become able to do(Consistent triple jumps, -3Lo, repeating Lutz and Flip) won't be that special nor will it be enough. The general level of skating in Russia has gone up significantly. I don't know what more I can do to get through to you. Do you actually think that there are tons of unknown skaters with acceptable basics that no one's ever heard of? We've seen all of them.

 

[hanca]

My point is that Eteri didn't have such an array of 2002-born skaters when Zagitova went to her, so she had the room to take someone like Zagitova. And you still don't seem to realize that those juniors aren't even close to being on the same level as Shcherbakova / Trusova so it'd be easier for someone unknown to emerge.

You're essentially saying that you know that these girls will be injured and some "unknown" will be the Olympic champion instead? What if that Unknown gets injured instead? Furthermore, do you even realize that Zagitova HERSELF suffered several injuries? It doesn't just stop a skater, in most cases.

I am not saying that I KNOW that they will be injured. I am looking at the past and saying that the probability of all three of them being successful in seniors is not high. Look at skaters from the previous quad. If the chance of survival was high, we would see Tsurskaya, Sotskova, Proklova, Sakhanovich and Medvedeva fighting among themselves for the worlds podium. Out of five it is only one fighting for the podium, 2 (Sotskova and Tsurskaya) fighting for the third Russian spot, but having no chance of getting to worlds podium, Sakhanovich struggling and Proklova out. And who is the winner? The one who didn’t even have the same success as they did - came a year late to junior level because her first year of eligibility she was seriously under average.

You keep saying how high level Scherbakova and Trusova are, but that won’t be any help if they start struggling with injuries or puberty. And your argument that seniors now need to be at higher level ... well, where are the high achieving seniors who are on a higher level? You are basing it on juniors who have never done even one competition in seniors. Nagasu has triple axel and yet it didn’t get her on the podium, Tuktamysheva has or had triple exel but was not able to keep it consistent for more than one season... how do you know what will happen with all those quads and triple axels among juniors when they hit puberty? At this stage I haven’t seen any proof that one needs more than what Medvedeva and Zagitova did at the Olympics. In theory one needs quads, but if no one in seniors has them, someone still will win the medal. So if one doesn’t need all those quads and triple axel, there is a pretty good chance that the future champion will just appear for the last season before Olympic season and then for the Olympics. It is easier to fight to get to the top than trying to stay on top for three years (which Scherbakova, Trusova and Kostornaya will have to try to do).

 

[Giver]

I hate to be pessimistic, but when looking at Eteri's wonder girls I can't help to remember of the Russian quad who became juniors in the 2013-2014 season: Medvedeva, Sakhanovich, Proklova and Sotskova. Medvedeva, of course, went all to take the figure skating world by storm, and Sotskova became an Olympian, but... I think we're looking at the best case scenario, here, in which all the talented girls are still fantastic in a couple of years.

Of course, that's what I want the most, but I fear that puberty, injuries, etc will get in the way of some.

Russian junior ladies are much better adapting in seniors than US junior ladies. Of 13 Russian JGPF participants from 2010 to 2016 only Korobeynikova, Shelepen, Proklova and Fedichkina didn't make it to senior success (and Fedichkina is still not a lost cause).

 

[hanca]

Feditchkina is a lost cause. She is not on senior team, on senior reserve, junior or even junior reserve team. I don’t think she has a high chance of qualifying into the nationals (juniors or seniors). She can do some B competitions, but in the long term she can either change country or she will gradually disappear. Within a few years even seniors will get very crowded and her chance of getting even challenger event will get lower and lower.

 

[Shayuki]

I am not saying that I KNOW that they will be injured. I am looking at the past and saying that the probability of all three of them being successful in seniors is not high. Look at skaters from the previous quad. If the chance of survival was high, we would see Tsurskaya, Sotskova, Proklova, Sakhanovich and Medvedeva fighting among themselves for the worlds podium. Out of five it is only one fighting for the podium, 2 (Sotskova and Tsurskaya) fighting for the third Russian spot, but having no chance of getting to worlds podium, Sakhanovich struggling and Proklova out. And who is the winner? The one who didn’t even have the same success as they did - came a year late to junior level because her first year of eligibility she was seriously under average.

You keep saying how high level Scherbakova and Trusova are, but that won’t be any help if they start struggling with injuries or puberty. And your argument that seniors now need to be at higher level ... well, where are the high achieving seniors who are on a higher level? You are basing it on juniors who have never done even one competition in seniors. Nagasu has triple axel and yet it didn’t get her on the podium, Tuktamysheva has or had triple exel but was not able to keep it consistent for more than one season... how do you know what will happen with all those quads and triple axels among juniors when they hit puberty? At this stage I haven’t seen any proof that one needs more than what Medvedeva and Zagitova did at the Olympics. In theory one needs quads, but if no one in seniors has them, someone still will win the medal. So if one doesn’t need all those quads and triple axel, there is a pretty good chance that the future champion will just appear for the last season before Olympic season and then for the Olympics. It is easier to fight to get to the top than trying to stay on top for three years (which Scherbakova, Trusova and Kostornaya will have to try to do).

You're looking at the past but you're making the mistake in not realizing that there's never been such a strong age group. That's when you just can't look at the past because they're not equal comparisons... Especially because Medvedeva's the only Eteri girl you listed there, and she was the most successful in seniors by far. And if we compare even Kostornaya to Medvedeva at this point in time, I'd say that Kostornaya's quite a bit stronger in numerous aspects than Medvedeva was in juniors. In fact, I struggle to think of any attribute where Medvedeva would have the advantage. The seniors would obviously have a higher level of requirements because of the current juniors being in seniors at the time - They're not in seniors right now. I shouldn't have to explain this...

No, Shcherbakova, Trusova or Kostornaya wouldn't have to stay at the top for three years for us to not have an "unknown new champion", which is what I was arguing against. It doesn't mean that one of these three would necessarily have to be one. It could also be someone like Kamila Valieva, Daria Usacheva, Maia Khromyh, Anastasia Shabotova etc. none of which are unknown. Additionally, as I was saying, you can't make the difference with Zagitova's tech when it'll be a common occurance. Currently, Sinitsyna, Shcherbakova, Trusova can perform such content and I have a feeling that some of the 2006 Eteri girls will be able to as well. There'd need to be something special to set them apart otherwise, even without quads. And, a point I'm making for the third, fourth time, Eteri has so many 2006-born students I doubt she'd take new ones. So who exactly are you banking on? Do you think Angels of Plushenko could have done with Zagitova what Eteri did?


What I'm also taking into account is that the 2004-2006 age groups just aren't that strong for Russia, which greatly increases the chances for Shcherbakova, Trusova and Kostornaya. If it was the record-breaking 2007-2008 age group they were competing against, perhaps the considerations would be different.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

If Zagitova was known four years ago, she would have other top starts to fight with. Tsurskaya as well as the four Proklova/Sotskova/Sakhanovich/Medvedeva. However, how things turned out, all those very promising superstarts did not work out. So my point remains. The golden girl for the next Olympics is still unknown and currently probably shows only average or even uneraverage results. She may not even be junior eligible (will become junior eligible next season) or is only this season newly eligible. And she may not even need to worry about the current crop of the superstars because no one can’t guarantee that in three years time they will still be around. Same as it happened with the past superstars. We are talking about ice skating. The ice is slippery. Look at Medvedeva, unbeatable for three years and gets injured just before Olympics. Look at At Scherbakova missing a whole season with broken leg. In fact, considering the injury rate of skaters in that group, I think the probability is quite high that Scherbakova and Trusova may be both injured. The line of injured skaters from that group is quite long.

The difference is that we didn't have our "scout bureau" last quad. Now, we've found almost all of the skaters, even the ones that seem to be just average currently. If we had done that for Zagitova's time, she wouldn't have seemed quite so unknown.

 

[hanca]

I don’t know what you did the last quad, but I watched junior ladies since Sotnikova was 11 years old. And yet I can assure you, Zagitova still was unknown for me four years ago. It can be because the season before her junior success she was scoring only 150s and 160s (with one competition 178 but it was a one-off). There are hundreds of girls in Russia scoring those 150 and 160. And four years before the current olympics she was scoring 103 and 122 at the Russian cup competitions. So unless you are currently watching all girls that score 103 and 122, the the future olympian may not even be on your watch list. There were hundreds of girls who scored better than Zagitova four years ago.

 

[Shayuki]

Zagitova was rather unknown 4 years ago, yes. But my point was, for the 4th or 5th time now, that what Zagitova ended up being able to do won't be enough with the constantly improving junior skaters.

Additionally, it's not that frequent that an unknown skater from outside Moscow would move to train in Moscow, under Eteri(especially as Eteri currently has 3 2006-born skaters). And you're essentially banking on that happening. And somehow seeing it as the most likely outcome?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I don’t know what you did the last quad, but I watched junior ladies since Sotnikova was 11 years old. And yet I can assure you, Zagitova still was unknown for me four years ago. It can be because the season before her junior success she was scoring only 150s and 160s (with one competition 178 but it was a one-off). There are hundreds of girls in Russia scoring those 150 and 160. And four years before the current olympics she was scoring 103 and 122 at the Russian cup competitions. So unless you are currently watching all girls that score 103 and 122, the the future olympian may not even be on your watch list. There were hundreds of girls who scored better than Zagitova four years ago.

I mean, I'm not as good as puremagic was at the scout bureau thing, but we have stars going all the way down for girls in 2012. I know that some people (not me because I'm in school when they happen) are streaming the competitions of little kids. And most people can't repeat what happened with Zagitova because many girls can already do what she did, and not everyone can train ultra-c elements and successfully compete them. Eteri already has the girls who are likely to be successful (Akatieva).

 

[hanca]

Zagitova was rather unknown 4 years ago, yes. But my point was, for the 4th or 5th time now, that what Zagitova ended up being able to do won't be enough with the constantly improving junior skaters.

Additionally, it's not that frequent that an unknown skater from outside Moscow would move to train in Moscow, under Eteri(especially as Eteri currently has 3 2006-born skaters). And you're essentially banking on that happening. And somehow seeing it as the most likely outcome?

Constantly repeating your points will not make them more valid. There are currently no seniors who can do quads. From all current seniors who did triple axel, Nagasu did not manage to get anywhere close to the podium with her triple axel and Tuktamysheva did not managed to keep her triple axel consistent for longer than one season. You are counting on Trusova and Scherbakova having all those quads, but the bottom line is that none of them have ever even competed in seniors. Scherbakova have not even landed a quad in a competition yet. We need first see them landing the quads repeatedly in senior competitions before you can say that to win the next Olympics one will need more than what Zagitova did. At the moment it is not true. There is a saying Don’t count your chicken!

Tuktamysheva have posted on her YouTube doing triple axel when she was about 12. Yes she eventually did not even get to the Olympics. Now she missed it twice. What is on YouTube doesn’t really count for competition.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

But there are many more seniors who are trying what Alina did -- Bradie Tennell for example. So one must have something extra to set them apart. Right now, the 3Lz-3Lo can be enough, because it's just Alina and Bradie. But the year after? The 3Lz-3Lo will be commonplace then. They will need something else to put themselves ahead. Quads and 3As are exactly that.

 

[Shayuki]

Constantly repeating your points will not make them more valid. There are currently no seniors who can do quads. From all current seniors who did triple axel, Nagasu did not manage to get anywhere close to the podium with her triple axel and Tuktamysheva did not managed to keep her triple axel consistent for longer than one season. You are counting on Trusova and Scherbakova having all those quads, but the bottom line is that none of them have ever even competed in seniors.

What? Just, what? Please read what I'm saying and don't completely misunderstand what I'm saying time after time.

I'm not counting on Trusova or Shcherbakova to do anything other than to potentially have -3Lo combos and Lutz / Flip jumps. But they don't even need to be the ones that'll have them. Even the 2006s of Eteri would do. As such, I'm saying that being able to perform such content isn't enough to set oneself apart! I don't understand how you can possibly not understand?

Do you not realize how good an "unknown skater" would need to be? The 2006s would be at Zagitova-age during Olympics, they shouldn't be "destroyed by puberty" by then.

 

[hanca]

What? Just, what? Please read what I'm saying and don't completely misunderstand what I'm saying time after time.

I'm not counting on Trusova or Shcherbakova to do anything other than to potentially have -3Lo combos and Lutz / Flip jumps. But they don't even need to be the ones that'll have them. Even the 2006s of Eteri would do. As such, I'm saying that being able to perform such content isn't enough to set oneself apart! I don't understand how you can possibly not understand?

Do you not realize how good an "unknown skater" would need to be? The 2006s would be at Zagitova-age during Olympics, they shouldn't be "destroyed by puberty" by then.

Your problem is that you assume that all those who are known to have promise will be considered to have promise in three years time. But they may not. Gubanova and Nugumanova... Four years is a really long time to know who will be at the top, even if you keep track of ‘all the promising’ youngsters. The ones who look promising in the past - some of them still are (Medvedeva), some of them are gone (Proklova), some of them have never reached the potential that was attributed to them (Sakhanovich, even Sotskova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova, Nugumanova). And then there are others who didn’t show that much promise in their pre-junior years, maybe even in their first year of junior eligibility... so yes, maybe some of the Eteri’s 2006 girls will make it, or maybe by 2022 she won’t be coaching them any more and will have some other, new talent. Not all Eteri’s girls turn into achievers. Where is Novakhova, by the way? And Mitrofanova... Julia Li.... Polina Shuboderova...Valeria Emelianova...

 

[Ziotic]

Your problem is that you assume that all those who are known to have promise will be considered to have promise in three years time. But they may not. Gubanova and Nugumanova... Four years is a really long time to know who will be at the top, even if you keep track of ‘all the promising’ youngsters. The ones who look promising in the past - some of them still are (Medvedeva), some of them are gone (Proklova), some of them have never reached the potential that was attributed to them (Sakhanovich, even Sotskova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova, Nugumanova). And then there are others who didn’t show that much promise in their pre-junior years, maybe even in their first year of junior eligibility... so yes, maybe some of the Eteri’s 2006 girls will make it, or maybe by 2022 she won’t be coaching them any more and will have some other, new talent. Not all Eteri’s girls turn into achievers. Where is Novakhova, by the way? And Mitrofanova... Julia Li.... Polina Shuboderova...Valeria Emelianova...

I think trying to convince people that their favorites may not survive puberty and injury is a waste of time. People like to believe in their favourites.

Realistically you’d think that Russian ladies have been sweeping every worlds podium for the last quad.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I think trying to convince people that their favorites may not survive puberty and injury is a waste of time. People like to believe in their favourites.

Realistically you’d think that Russian ladies have been sweeping every worlds podium for the last quad.

It's not like Russia has had the most success in ladies' in the last quad or anything :sarcasm:

 

[Shayuki]

Your problem is that you assume that all those who are known to have promise will be considered to have promise in three years time. But they may not. Gubanova and Nugumanova... Four years is a really long time to know who will be at the top, even if you keep track of ‘all the promising’ youngsters. The ones who look promising in the past - some of them still are (Medvedeva), some of them are gone (Proklova), some of them have never reached the potential that was attributed to them (Sakhanovich, even Sotskova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova, Nugumanova). And then there are others who didn’t show that much promise in their pre-junior years, maybe even in their first year of junior eligibility... so yes, maybe some of the Eteri’s 2006 girls will make it, or maybe by 2022 she won’t be coaching them any more and will have some other, new talent. Not all Eteri’s girls turn into achievers. Where is Novakhova, by the way? And Mitrofanova... Julia Li.... Polina Shuboderova...Valeria Emelianova...

They may, or they may not. But I don't see how all ~10 skaters I've listed completely regressing is more likely than some unknown skater emerging out of nowhere to overtake everyone, especially as about half of the skaters I've named shouldn't even have to significantly deal with puberty by Olympics.

The important thing for why "history" needs to be taken with a grain of salt is that Russia's never had as strong juniors. Hence, the comparables for senior success by junior skaters isn't entirely accurate, because the precedent doesn't match well enough.

 

[Roast Toast]

I don't think it's about them all regressing. We don't have to constantly pay lip service to the fact that Russia has easily 10x times the depth of ladies talent as even the other big skating countries. I do think though that the current state of the wonder trio is almost too good to be true.

 

[Shayuki]

I think trying to convince people that their favorites may not survive puberty and injury is a waste of time. People like to believe in their favourites.

Realistically you’d think that Russian ladies have been sweeping every worlds podium for the last quad.

Russia's had plenty of success at worlds during this past quad, have they not?

My favorite's Shcherbakova, but I could name dozens of other known Russian skaters. That's not what the discussion was about at all - I was not arguing that Shcherbakova will certainly win Olympics. I was arguing that one of the dozens and dozens of known skaters will, rather than some unknown.

 

[Ziotic]

It's not like Russia has had the most success in ladies' in the last quad or anything :sarcasm:

Sure they have, but they are not untouchable.

Also from a population demographic standpoint they have more depth because they have more people to choose from.

If you look at it from that perspective they actually have a smaller take of the medals at worlds when comparing them to other nations...just saying

 

[Sugar Coated]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but when Zagitova moved to Eteri at age 12 she didn’t even have all her triple yet? And three years later she’s the Olympic champion who came close to winning everything in her senior debut. And Kostornia was also a relative unknown before last year? And now she’s the second best junior in the world? She didn’t even have a fan fest thread until after last years test skates, less than a year ago.

I think because Russia has so much talent is why it’s entirely possible to overlook a late bloomer. Some 11-12 year old who doesn’t currently have all her triples at the moment but could move to Eteri (or another top coach) in a year and then become the next quad queen during her senior debut in an Olympic year. Now this same girl would likely be known to us now if she was from the US because there is so little talent that anyone with the slightest Olympic potential shows up on our radar.

I think Sabina Zagitova is a good example. If she didn’t have an older sister, would anyone know her? But Alina has said her sister has more talent than she did at her age. Are there more unknown Sabinas out there who would be senior eligible for the next Olympics?

And to those that say Alina has no chance of competing with her current arsenal, can we really know what she can do in 2-3 years? 3 years ago no one would have thought she’d be able to do 3Lz-3l and now she reportedly has the strength do 10 triples in a row (at least 5). Just because we don’t currently see her doing a quad or 3A doesn’t mean she won’t surprise us. Not necessarily likely but how can we really know for sure considering her exponential development. Who’s to say she’s done improving?